First YouGov Likely Voter Poll of 2026: D+11 Generic Ballot, Trump Approval At 37%.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_SlcWdVd.pdf

Same LV poll/time in '24 was Harris +2.5.

The issue is that it's a national LV poll, and most states/locations don't matter at all. If the 25 or so House districts and 6-8 Senate races are all that matter, those are heavily impacted by turnout and final month of spending/ads/gotv etc. And, as you stated, they got 2024 clearly wrong.

It's a synopsis of the Harry Enten/CNN analysis that is just, well, garbage frankly.

CNN Polling Has it All Wrong pic.twitter.com/MAMPV87YOi

— The Sean Spicer Show (@seanspicershow) September 7, 2026

Sean is correct.

Which is maddening. That second graph flat out shows you that Republicans are way more objective and rational than Democrats. We've always (for for a long time) recognized government corruption regardless of party while the Democrats only recognize it if their guy is not in charge.

Democrats are dumb, brain-washed m'fers.

Some good feedback/reality from a 'relatively' level-headed Democrat.

The rightward drift of Jewish voters (and lower enthusiasm for the many still voting Dem) is a largely under-discussed reason for Democratic Party-committee fundraising woes. Combine this w/ picking fights with tech & finance is helping sap them of a lot of money/donors https://t.co/hil2LM7QgJ

— Blake Allen (@Blake_Allen13) September 9, 2026

Time will tell if it sticks but it’s an interesting/bad political issue for Dems if it does cost them fundraising that they can’t make up in other ways. Especially as the judiciary keeps loosening political fundraising rules

— Blake Allen (@Blake_Allen13) September 9, 2026

He went on to comment that Jews are a major source of funding for the D party and losing that is a big issue looking ahead.

Moslems just don't donate/give as much money. Could be an issue in places like New Hampshire this cycle, though the national party I think will do whatever it can to pull that out for them.

So is anyone else watching this midterm convention? It kicked off at 3 PM here.

https://gopconvention.com/live/

It's not officially live until Lee Greeenwood sings.

Will Cain just had Brandon Gil on and they are broadcasting from the convention.

Did not seem like much was happening.

nortex97 said:

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Some good feedback/reality from a 'relatively' level-headed Democrat.

The rightward drift of Jewish voters (and lower enthusiasm for the many still voting Dem) is a largely under-discussed reason for Democratic Party-committee fundraising woes. Combine this w/ picking fights with tech & finance is helping sap them of a lot of money/donors https://t.co/hil2LM7QgJ

— Blake Allen (@Blake_Allen13) September 9, 2026

Time will tell if it sticks but it’s an interesting/bad political issue for Dems if it does cost them fundraising that they can’t make up in other ways. Especially as the judiciary keeps loosening political fundraising rules

— Blake Allen (@Blake_Allen13) September 9, 2026

He went on to comment that Jews are a major source of funding for the D party and losing that is a big issue looking ahead.

Moslems just don't donate/give as much money. Could be an issue in places like New Hampshire this cycle, though the national party I think will do whatever it can to pull that out for them.

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Been that way with Dems and Jewish donors for a long time. In the movie, Charlie Wilson's War there is even a reference to Wilson's donor base being NY Jews despite few Jews living in his district.

fc2112 said:

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So is anyone else watching this midterm convention? It kicked off at 3 PM here.

https://gopconvention.com/live/

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I don't like how the GOP decided to have a midterm convention on the same night as the opening NFL game. IT would have been better to schedule the midterm convention for next Wednesday.

President Trump will compete with the National Football League for the nation's attention on Wednesday night. His keynote address at the GOP convention is scheduled to begin shortly after 9 p.m. ET and will overlap with the NFL kickoff game between the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.

Politics vs. Pigskin: Convention Overlaps With NFL Kickoff Game

Well, think about what happens every one of those three minute television breaks. A lot of those watching the games will fire up social media and catch clips from the convention tonight and tomorrow with the Australia game.

Don't think they were counting on a ton of people tuning in to watch the commission into end as much as generate all the clips and throw them online for people to see on social media

Kemp didn't run in Georgia because Collins was such a bad matchup for Ossoff.

Trump just said gas won't come down until after the mid terms. Guy is tanking the republican majority in congress

DonHenley said:

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Trump just said gas won't come down until after the mid terms. Guy is tanking the republican majority in congress

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Absolutely. I just hate it when he's honest and lays out why the action in Iran was necessary and then talks about resolution and bringing prices down.

Damn him.

I love how Rep Brandon Gill kicked off the midterm convention with a land acknowledgment by saying, "My friends, we live in the finest country in the history of the world, and we're no longer going to apologize for that."

DonHenley said:

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Trump just said gas won't come down until after the mid terms. Guy is tanking the republican majority in congress

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They cant pass anything anyway with the filibuster

We are at this phase of the leftist projections/narratives about November. As with every cycle.

He even thought 15% was too high too. You can't make this up. 🤣https://t.co/IzHQ9SObLo

— The Two Trees 🌳🇺🇲🌳 (@_ita_vero) September 9, 2026

Even Ben Rhodes, of weeping on the steps outside HRC's election night party fame, says Democrat brand is unpopular. NY Post: AfD win in Germany should be a warning to US Democrats on immigration.

Quote:

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That's true of America's left as well: On the first day of President Joe Biden's term, he similarly opened the immigration floodgates on "humanitarian" grounds.

The catastrophe he caused is still unfolding: Every time a border-jumper rapes, robs, steals, or kills, Biden and other Dems share some blame.

And there's blowback: a collapse of support for Democrats on immigration, which fueled Donald Trump's 2024 victory.

It's another reminder that there's a price to pay when pols deny the profound risks of mass migration and instead enable it: Voters fight back at the ballot box.

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Never forget, never forgive Democrats.

The Dems messaging this morning is back town to "we have to vote for socialism and for the party of pedos to be in charge! If you don't, Orange Man will send you $5,000 and will never release the irrelevant Epstein files (since the millions and millions released were not enough!) so we can finally prove Orange Man is Hitler!".

And honest media would ask the Hate Americans… "so what's your plan should you win? How will you make American lives better?"

Their answer is always "we shall give away EVERYTHING! Open borders! Double digit inflation! Nuclear Iran! Energy and economic dependence on China! Get Trump!"

They Hate America and anything that tries to make America a success.

See Trumpapooza thread for their nonsense.

nortex97 said:

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This is what happens when Rick Perry and Greg Abbott invite every tech company from California to Austin along with 100,000’s of H1Bs across Texas.

They are turning Texas blue.

Make no mistake. https://t.co/pMWW4w3jVj

— Tom Slocum for Texas 🇺🇸 (@slocumfortexas) September 7, 2026

Not that anyone was under the impression Austin was something resembling 'red' but this is aggravating to see so visually clear.

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Don't want to derail this thread but the Theo has some interesting on party id shifts in Texas that's probably worth a discussion on a separate thread.

hmm... seems bad for republicans

Vice President JD Vance is heading to Kansas to campaign with Republicans. pic.twitter.com/R9TTWvVFD7

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) September 10, 2026

Gallup poll | Q2 2026 RV

Party identification (leans pushed)
🟦Democratic 49%
🟥Republican 39%

(Highest since 2008)

Link to poll: https://t.co/zClpsllfbQ https://t.co/pM9ccg5tZv pic.twitter.com/Wtv7xxcHA2

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) September 6, 2026

QUINNIPIAC: Generic Ballot polling trend among Independent voters

Oct. 2018
🟦 Democrats: 50% (D+11)
🟥 Republicans: 39%
—
Oct. 2022
🟥 Republicans: 45% (R+9)
🟦 Democrats: 36%
—
SEPT. 2026
🟦 Democrats: 51% (D+23)
🟥 Republicans: 28% https://t.co/pPi3KGMqdQ pic.twitter.com/fwhZnmTAK6

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 10, 2026

Vance will get the people of kansas so hyped up that they will crawl over broken glass to vote

Vance going to a wealthy KC suburb is an obvious sign of…

Fundraising.

But if you think it's fear, I am cool with that.

Texas Gov race is now tied. Paxton is polling behind Talarico. The number of Republican candidates who don't want to be seen with Trump goes up every day. Huge chunks of Trump's convention seats are empty despite the local GOP giving tickets away. Trump offers everyone $5k to vote Republican and even Fox called it out as BS. I'm beginning to think he wants Congress to flip just so he can say, "See, you guys are nothing when I'M not on the ticket."

Snicker, snicker congratulations Dallas after decades of trying to flip Texas and spending billions and billions of coastal money, you finally flipped Texas. Snicker, snicker.

Meet Shelly Kates Headen, a Democrat candidate for NC House.

She hoped for an attack on U.S. soil targeting red states

She should drop out immediately. She doesn’t belong anywhere public office

Psychotic behavior pic.twitter.com/zypCgliKYC

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) September 11, 2026

This is just who democrats are.

Not just Democrats. So many folks in the Iran threads are just a bit too giddy when Iran strikes home flinging goat dung.

They also seem just a dad excite about higher gas though they mask it through words like "suffering".

Hate Americans is all they is. Call them out.

i don't think we're getting those $5k checks, guys

📊 Generic Ballot Poll by @cygnal (A)

🟦 Democrats: 50.7%
🟥 Republicans: 42.1%

🔴 White: R+9
🔵 Black: D+65
🔵 Hispanic: D+32
🔵 Suburban: D+11
——
D+8.6 — Biggest lead by Cygnal this cycle (was D+3.4 in February)

Sept. 1-2 | 1,500 LV pic.twitter.com/3P1F50Wa9H

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 10, 2026

When it was reported that North Korean missiles only had the capability to hit Washington or Oregon, I seem to recall people on this board saying that oregon or Washington getting hit wouldn't be a bad thing amd other people weren't concerned because " nothing important " was at risk.

RNC chairman sat down in Dallas this week to talk about uniting the Republican coalition. Good chat;

Quote:

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Democrats have let antisemitism "fester" while Republican leadership has "stomped it out," Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Joe Gruters told Breitbart News.

Breitbart Editor-in-Chief Alex Marlow interviewed Gruters at the 2026 Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) National Leadership Summit on August 31, where the two discussed the upcoming midterm elections and the Democratic Party's embrace of radical socialist, anti-Israel candidates. Marlow noted that while anti-Israel, right-wing candidates "all got whooped" in the primaries, Democrats are shamelessly backing as many far-left, anti-Jewish candidates as they can.

"These leftist radicals are winning from coast to coast. It's not just New York City, which surprisingly, New York City with the largest Jewish contingent, has the [Mayor Zohran] Mamdani probably one of the most antisemitic guys in the country. But these guys are being led by them. They're winning these campaigns. And yes, at some point, the remaining Jewish voters are going to have to decide if the Democrat Party truly represents them. Does it represent their values? Do they want to continue to support the radical views? Because there's no such thing as a moderate Democrat anymore," Gruters said.
...
Gruters said that with Republicans maintaining a 53-47 hold on the Senate right now, he is optimistic Mike Rogers (R) beats El-Sayed in the Michigan U.S. Senate race, and he also thinks former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu (R) has a "good chance" of snagging a victory in the New Hampshire U.S. Senate race.

"We just have to hold the seats that are marginal right now, and that includes Texas, Ohio, Iowa, [and] Alaska. I think we will. If I had to give you a prediction today, I'd say we stay right at 53," Gruters said. "On the House side, what's crazy is all the redistricting and movement that we've seen over the last three decades, and all the recent stuff that we've done over the last year it's really made House seats I actually think we're in a better position in the House, even though we only have a three-seat majority.

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We need more of that, as DSA democrats teeter between outright socialism, hatred, and 'traditional' American values (which they only embrace when campaigning). He's been a very effective chairman, especially compared to Ken Martin on the other side.

In the last two midterms, senate races within 5% were decided by the one who spent the most money there 92% of the time

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) September 12, 2026

Good to keep in mind. The only race the Dem is going to substantially out-spend the GOP I think at this point is Ossoff.

Unless gas prices drop noticeably and the Iran war is resolved, it's not going to matter how much Republicans spend,

Wrong. There is zero evidence people will vote Democrat because gas prices are high because we needed to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon.

Anyone who does vote on this issue is the epitome of a Hate American and are a treasonous sort who should be dealt with as such.

DSA won another mayorship(?) in Providence, RI on Wednesday.

flown-the-coop said:

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Wrong. There is zero evidence people will vote Democrat because gas prices are high because we needed to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon.

Anyone who does vote on this issue is the epitome of a Hate American and are a treasonous sort who should be dealt with as such.

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I love your attitude but you're completely clueless when it comes to knowing what's on the average voter's mind.

SA68AG said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Wrong. There is zero evidence people will vote Democrat because gas prices are high because we needed to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon.

Anyone who does vote on this issue is the epitome of a Hate American and are a treasonous sort who should be dealt with as such.

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I love your attitude but you're completely clueless when it comes to knowing what's on the average voter's mind.

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Absolutely clueless. Do you have a poll to back that up or just an anecdotal observation?

Money talks. Empirically true per above this week.

Another $6M for OH senate, $4M for NC and MI senate

Good night!

What is even going on. This is easily the most ever spent on senate races by either party. Absolute money bomb going off https://t.co/ukkHqHSZvh

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) September 13, 2026

The GOP is now spending $47 per Republican voter in Ohio and $123 per Republican voter in Alaska and people are going to look you in the eyes and tell you this won’t impact anything https://t.co/0BMJE1Ku49

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) September 13, 2026

The USAID money laundering machine is sorely missed by the left.

The Republican convention solidified that a vote for their candidates is a vote for Trump and his machinations. People are pissed at him.

Did you recite your Trump oath today:

Please raise your right hand. I pledge to the greatest president in the history of the United States. That loves us so much he can't even breathe. That I will go out with my family, my friends, I'll do it any way I don't care if I'm registered or not, I'm going to try to cheat like hell like they do. There's never been bigger cheaters. They don't care. I am going to go out and I'm going to get my friends, my family. And we are going to vote on Nov. 3, or we are going to vote before that.