***Official Final 100 Days to 2026 Midterms Countdown/Discussion Thread***

100,059 Views | 1387 Replies | Last: 22 hrs ago by Windy City Ag
Old McDonald
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In reply to TRM • 2:45p, 10/26/26
TRM said:
Where Trump and Vance are campaigning this week:

Mississippi: Trump +23
Texas: Trump +14
Ohio: Trump +11
Florida: Trump +13
Iowa: Trump +13
Montana: Trump +20
Kansas: Trump +16
Michigan: Trump +1
trump campaigning in mississippi and the SLF spending $1 million to shore up the gop's senate candidate there is legitimately insane. i respect the brave faces but this is a 5 alarm fire for republicans.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Old McDonald • 2:51p, 10/26/26
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Wings007Ag
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2:52p, 10/26/26
LOL the last two posts exact same thing but on left and right..
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Wings007Ag • 2:53p, 10/26/26
Yea, thats why I responded with that
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nai06
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 2:55p, 10/26/26
I think it's going to be a lot closer than people expect. Its why Republicans are also campaigning in traditional strongholds like Texas and Kansas.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to nai06 • 3:04p, 10/26/26
Id expect so. History tells us midterms are tough for incumbents. Im actually a little surprised dems arent doing a little better, all things considered
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Ag87H2O
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In reply to Old McDonald • 3:16p, 10/26/26
Old McDonald said:
TRM said:
Where Trump and Vance are campaigning this week:

Mississippi: Trump +23
Texas: Trump +14
Ohio: Trump +11
Florida: Trump +13
Iowa: Trump +13
Montana: Trump +20
Kansas: Trump +16
Michigan: Trump +1

trump campaigning in mississippi and the SLF spending $1 million to shore up the gop's senate candidate there is legitimately insane. i respect the brave faces but this is a 5 alarm fire for republicans.

Seems to me they have identified the districts/states they need to win in order to maintain a majority and are targeting them in the last week of early voting. I wouldn't read too much into it, just like the Democrats sending Obama and Harris (lol) to campaign in blue states.

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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 3:20p, 10/26/26
Who?mikejones! said:
Id expect so. History tells us midterms are tough for incumbents. Im actually a little surprised dems arent doing a little better, all things considered

Reminder that Trump told us the word incumbent is not longer understood…

But you are on point. Dems should be SMOKING the Rs given the global economic conditions and the perpetual hatred of Trump. But despite the best efforts of MSM and others to paint nothing but doomsday for Rs, the races are shown to be neck and neck, which given the history of underpolling of Rs, the stakes are setting up for a push or for a red ripple to maintain majorities in both houses.

Almost certainly the Senate is not just R but R+3 to R+5. The House likely stays within a few seats of either (less than 5) which means protracted SoH selections and a bunch of mental ******ation being punted up to the Senate to be slapped down.

If… and its a big big if… the Rs maintain control of both, I expect Trump to be in their arse like a junior HS football coach thinking his **** don't stink. If Dems get the house, Hakeem Jefferies will prove to be the most incompetent speaker ever to sniff the gavel. He will crater any hopes they have for 2028. Not a bad consolation prize for the mid terms.

And if Dems eke out small majorities in both, almost certainly not happening, then as I have mentioned before Trump will simply ignored the Article I branch of government for the next 2 years.
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will25u
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3:31p, 10/26/26
As long as the Rs keep the Senate 51 or above Rs will be OK. Lots of investigations in the house, 239487129348719 impeachments, but they won't go anywhere.

If Ds get the House and Senate(at least 50/50) and a D president in 2028, hold onto your butts.

I still think the Rs will hold on with 51+. 53+ will keep Senate in R hands for the next around the next decade.
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infinity ag
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3:54p, 10/26/26
I just voted.

I live in a blue state, but I voted for all Republicans, from start to finish. Did my smart part to overthrow the Dems,
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to will25u • 4:01p, 10/26/26
Good take. One thing about the Ds catching a blue wave / ripple… they will drastically overplay their hands and that will cost them any hopes in 2028.

They are a party teetering on the brink of going completely out of control or splitting in half. As mentioned, if they only get the house they will anoint dumb****er Jeffries and his oversized baseball hats and bumbling rhetoric as he attempts to corral his DSA faction. He would also be presiding over how to handle Ilhan's expulsion.
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outofstateaggie
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4:29p, 10/26/26
Interesting along with the other Maricopa news earlier today.

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Im Gipper
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5:25p, 10/26/26

I'm Gipper
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CascadiaAg
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In reply to Im Gipper • 5:26p, 10/26/26
Im Gipper said:


Would be funny if Johnny goes on a bender and no shows.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to CascadiaAg • 5:45p, 10/26/26
Assume Colt will just stand in the corner and watch… awkwardly?
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CascadiaAg
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 5:47p, 10/26/26
flown-the-coop said:
Assume Colt will just stand in the corner and watch… awkwardly?


Not if Trump invites Shipley as well
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to CascadiaAg • 5:47p, 10/26/26
flown-the-coop
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In reply to CascadiaAg • 5:47p, 10/26/26
TRM
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7:49p, 10/26/26
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will25u
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8:12p, 10/26/26
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jja79
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 11:28p, 10/26/26
outofstateaggie said:
Interesting along with the other Maricopa news earlier today.



I did my part. You would think Feeley does well in a district with Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills.

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nortex97
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In reply to jja79 • 4:59a, 10/27/26
Thank you for your service. That race/county is key.

Models using 15%+ youth vote turnout should be utterly trashed moving forward. Not happening.

The El Sayed candidacy (and DSA movement/NYC Mayor) are absolutely devastating Democrat jewish support, which while not a big deal in terms of the numbers of voters (especially in Texas), has huge ramifications for them financially looking forward.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:13a, 10/27/26
I remember poll digging in 2024. Little things like overinflating heavy D voting blocks was the popular poll method to get a D lead.

Polls really start being garbage once the pollster assumptions around voter turnout come into play.
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Dallas82
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In reply to TRM • 9:33a, 10/27/26
TRM said:
Where Trump and Vance are campaigning this week:

Mississippi: Trump +23
Texas: Trump +14
Ohio: Trump +11
Florida: Trump +13
Iowa: Trump +13
Montana: Trump +20
Kansas: Trump +16
Michigan: Trump +1


He's campaigning in Oklahoma. Jesus. He won Oklahoma by +34.3. The Republican Senate candidate is leading by 28 points.
The Republican House candidate is up by 9 points. The Republican Governor is only up by 3.7 points.
In a state Trump carried by over 34 points two years ago.
So either they are worried about the Governor and Representive or Trump just feels the need to preach to a friendly crown for a quick ego boost.
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RogerFurlong
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In reply to Dallas82 • 9:56a, 10/27/26
Dallas82 said:

He's campaigning in Oklahoma. Jesus. He won Oklahoma by +34.3. The Republican Senate candidate is leading by 28 points.
The Republican House candidate is up by 9 points. The Republican Governor is only up by 3.7 points.
In a state Trump carried by over 34 points two years ago.
So either they are worried about the Governor and Representive or Trump just feels the need to preach to a friendly crown for a quick ego boost.

In purple states the republicans may not want to be tied to Trump or Vance. Same reason Kamala or Obama's not going to campaign in Texas. Or maybe Obama just wants to preach to friendly crowds for a quick ego boost.
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Windy City Ag
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11:56a, 10/27/26
I usually follow this University of Florida professor who tracks aggregate early voting stats across the country.

I finally found a non-paywall summary of the Bloomberg article that ran yesterday. There is a lot of state by state upates.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/early-voting-surges-across-south-215611542.html

Quote:
Early voting is surging across several major states ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, with Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina reporting substantial increases over 2022, while Republican participation trails that of Democrat and independent voters in several states, according to new research from election analyst Michael McDonald.

His latest analysis of six Southern states reveals striking differences in voter enthusiasm, with turnout climbing sharply in battlegrounds while declining in less competitive states.

Texas: Turnout Jumps 44%
Texas is experiencing one of the nation's most dramatic early voting increases, with approximately 1.3 million more ballots cast than at the comparable point in 2022, a 44% surge.

The state has already recorded early votes equivalent to 50% of its entire 2022 gubernatorial election turnout.

Heavily Hispanic border counties, including Hidalgo, Cameron, El Paso, and Webb, have exceeded that statewide benchmark, suggesting strong Hispanic voter participation.

National Implications
The central finding is an increasingly uneven electorate.

States featuring competitive races and growing minority populations are experiencing substantial early voting increases, while less competitive, predominantly Republican states may see weaker participation.
McDonald emphasized that early voting figures are snapshots, not election predictions. Republicans could close participation gaps during the remaining early voting period and on Election Day.

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Old McDonald
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1:20p, 10/27/26
everyone is speculating about the extent to which midterms polling is underestimating republicans. few are considering the possibility that it's the dems who are being underestimated.
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TRM
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2:17p, 10/27/26
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Old McDonald • 2:19p, 10/27/26
Old McDonald said:
everyone is speculating about the extent to which midterms polling is underestimating republicans. few are considering the possibility that it's the dems who are being underestimated.

Thats because polls are biased to high youth and minority turnout every cycle. So at best it would be the polls are right. It certainly wont be underestimated.
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5Amp
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2:21p, 10/27/26
I believeeeeee
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GeorgiAg
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2:50p, 10/27/26
Voted today.

All R.

Just like you told me, F16. Are you proud of me?
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TRM
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3:03p, 10/27/26
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TRM
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3:07p, 10/27/26


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Prosperdick
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In reply to Old McDonald • 3:10p, 10/27/26
Old McDonald said:
everyone is speculating about the extent to which midterms polling is underestimating republicans. few are considering the possibility that it's the dems who are being underestimated.

Even fewer are considering the loss of USAID/NGO money and how it will impact ballot harvesting for Dems.
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nortex97
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In reply to TRM • 3:14p, 10/27/26
That case/investigation is from 2025 however, just fyi.
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