***Official Final 100 Days to 2026 Midterms Countdown/Discussion Thread***

55,927 Views | 908 Replies | Last: 8 min ago by flown-the-coop
YouBet
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flown-the-coop said:

YouBet said:

Rossticus said:

This would certainly get interesting.




Hope this is just more trolling but still tard commentary even if so.

That's an immediate Democrat blue wave. F'ing moron.
reminder unusual whales and Reuters have become quite routine with these unsourced click bait headlines about Evil Orange Man Seeks to Destroy Democracy.

Not even sure why people even remotely fall for it.


Well, I certainly hope it's fake and will be happy if I fell for it.
Im Gipper
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while not "fake" but also not "breaking" nor really newsworthy in context.

Quote:


"Would you rule out declaring a state of emergency in the lead up to the midterms unless there's widespread violence in the streets?"

I don't rule anything out or in. We'll see. You mean the Insurrection Act?

Yeah.


No, I've never used it. I could use it. A lot of people think I should use it sometimes. We have the bestlook, we have the lowest crime in the history of our country. We have the lowest murder rate since 1900, 125 years. We have the lowest murder rate. That's despite the fact that they allowed 25 million people.


https://time.com/article/2026/10/01/donald-trump-2026-interview-transcript/


I'm Gipper
YouBet
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So, typical Trump blathering then.

On second thought, maybe he should though because here is what we are up against from the WSJ this morning:

Quote:

Hakeem Jeffries is closing in on the Speaker's gavel, but his path to power runs directly through an expanding group of Democratic Socialists who want major policy concessions in exchange for their support. To win backing from the DSA's national organization and some local chapters, the candidates had to agree to work closely with the group once in office and caucus with other endorsed members. The DSA and the candidates will decide together on what red lines to set with Jeffries, said DSA national co-chair Ashik Siddique.


Following is just what we know about as demands:

Quote:

Demands on the table for Jeffries included wealth taxes, advancing language and votes on Medicare for All, the pro-union PRO Act, an arms embargo on Israel, raising the minimum wage and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement.


Looking at these individually you are looking at:

- Wealth taxes: as shown in the Washington state wealth tax thread I started yesterday, this idea will migrate downwards to the middle class and rapidly. It will never just apply to the wealthy.

- Medicare for All: this is single-payer government healthcare that will destroy medicine in this country, subject everyone to extraordinary wait times for basic procedures, downgrade the quality of doctors, and cost trillions in new spending that we already can't afford.

- PRO Act: see attached image. Puts unions everywhere. Full on worker's paradise via Marx.

- Arms Embargo on Israel: sort of indifferent to this but it would degrade Israel and make them vulnerable to everyone else in the MidEast.

- Raising Minimum Wage: economic idiocy as shown everywhere it is done at the state and local level. Job killer.

- Abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement: back to open borders and anti-sovereignty so that communist ferals can take over America. Hakeem has already said the Democrats are going to pursue this, so this reason alone is enough to vote against Democrats.

Rossticus
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Yep. Every one of those is a nonstarter. I don't think that we need to be joined at the hip with Israel, but an embargo is pointless and counterproductive.

The producers in society would be taxed into oblivion.
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Billys Cesspool Enjoyer
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Eat. Pray. Vote.
“…What?”

- Joe Biden
AxelFoley85
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Can't wait to see early voter turnout in Texas.
nortex97
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This is what Democrats offer Americans as a future:


No small coincidence Talafreako and Jihadist El Sayed in Michigan are closing with moslem voter appeals.
TRM
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will25u
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will25u
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AxelFoley85
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Windy City Ag
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will25u
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Just so EVERYONE knows...

TEXAS IS RED!
nortex97
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Well if 'CarolinaForward' says so, I guess.

Devastating ad is about right. Wow. When your nominees on mom delivers such a blow a couple weeks out...she might not have been the best choice.

VP Vance had a great interview with Mark Halperin. I'll probably watch/listen to it on the latters podcast later. This part discusses the Michigan jihadist/citizenship etc:
nortex97
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Trump having fun with the memory of Anne Salzer is still funny.

He doesn't sound real nervous to me.
Brutal Puffin
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PaulsBunions
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nortex97 said:

Well if 'CarolinaForward' says so, I guess.

Devastating ad is about right. Wow. When your nominees on mom delivers such a blow a couple weeks out...she might not have been the best choice.

VP Vance had a great interview with Mark Halperin. I'll probably watch/listen to it on the latters podcast later. This part discusses the Michigan jihadist/citizenship etc:





Supposedly she was a horrid mother that lost custody of Amy when Amy was 12, and stayed married to the man who sexually abused her.
K2-HMFIC
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PaulsBunions said:

nortex97 said:

Well if 'CarolinaForward' says so, I guess.

Devastating ad is about right. Wow. When your nominees on mom delivers such a blow a couple weeks out...she might not have been the best choice.

VP Vance had a great interview with Mark Halperin. I'll probably watch/listen to it on the latters podcast later. This part discusses the Michigan jihadist/citizenship etc:





Supposedly she was a horrid mother that lost custody of Amy when Amy was 12, and stayed married to the man who sexually abused her.



Woof. Not a great look by Vivek.
Captn_Ag05
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He is desperate.
YouBet
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will25u said:

Just so EVERYONE knows...

TEXAS IS RED!


Were you the guy that repeatedly claimed Arizona was red?

Texas is purple now at a minimum if all of these voting results hold up. R's better get out and vote.
nortex97
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Meh, it's not a great look for her either. Talarico continues to run campaign ads that are lies about Paxton going easy on pedophiles (when the child didn't want to go through the trauma of testifying again in a re-trial after a mistrial was declared, and his family asked him to stop).

But it's effective to show that a candidate is wholly dishonest, even according to their own family. Ohio is trending very well in early voting so I disagree Vivek is desperate but that's neither here nor there. I also doubt Vivek's campaign even put it out themselves, probably a pac of some sort. The crux of the matter is that Acton is...a prolific liar:
PaulsBunions
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K2-HMFIC said:

PaulsBunions said:

nortex97 said:

Well if 'CarolinaForward' says so, I guess.

Devastating ad is about right. Wow. When your nominees on mom delivers such a blow a couple weeks out...she might not have been the best choice.

VP Vance had a great interview with Mark Halperin. I'll probably watch/listen to it on the latters podcast later. This part discusses the Michigan jihadist/citizenship etc:





Supposedly she was a horrid mother that lost custody of Amy when Amy was 12, and stayed married to the man who sexually abused her.



Woof. Not a great look by Vivek.


He might be the most pathetic R candidate this cycle. It seems like everything he does the public hates.
YouBet
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PaulsBunions said:

K2-HMFIC said:

PaulsBunions said:

nortex97 said:

Well if 'CarolinaForward' says so, I guess.

Devastating ad is about right. Wow. When your nominees on mom delivers such a blow a couple weeks out...she might not have been the best choice.

VP Vance had a great interview with Mark Halperin. I'll probably watch/listen to it on the latters podcast later. This part discusses the Michigan jihadist/citizenship etc:





Supposedly she was a horrid mother that lost custody of Amy when Amy was 12, and stayed married to the man who sexually abused her.



Woof. Not a great look by Vivek.


He might be the most pathetic R candidate this cycle. It seems like everything he does the public hates.


Bad timing for him with the whole H1B thing happening. And his comments earlier on topic were bad optics.

Regardless, he's still 100x better than this insane white lady.
K2-HMFIC
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nortex97 said:

Meh, it's not a great look for her either. Talarico continues to run campaign ads that are lies about Paxton going easy on pedophiles (when the child didn't want to go through the trauma of testifying again in a re-trial after a mistrial was declared, and his family asked him to stop).

But it's effective to show that a candidate is wholly dishonest, even according to their own family. Ohio is trending very well in early voting so I disagree Vivek is desperate but that's neither here nor there. I also doubt Vivek's campaign even put it out themselves, probably a pac of some sort. The crux of the matter is that Acton is...a prolific liar:




Let's not throw other arguments into this one…

At the end of the day, whatever you think of Acton, Vivek pulling an ad with her estranged mother is poor form and only hurts his campaign…doesn't help it.
PaulsBunions
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Yes the Democrats make the choice between the two easy, I'm just saying he would be a loser candidate if the dems weren't insane.
YouBet
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PaulsBunions said:

Yes the Democrats make the choice between the two easy, I'm just saying he would be a loser candidate if the dems weren't insane.


Probably so.
will25u
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YouBet said:

will25u said:

Just so EVERYONE knows...

TEXAS IS RED!


Were you the guy that repeatedly claimed Arizona was red?

Texas is purple now at a minimum if all of these voting results hold up. R's better get out and vote.

Not at all. I just believe it to be true and just comedering what that poster said.

I don't believe it will be the +14 Trump this time around, but Paxton should win by 5+. Abbott... Do we even need to talk about this race?

TEXAS IS RED!
YouBet
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will25u said:

YouBet said:

will25u said:

Just so EVERYONE knows...

TEXAS IS RED!


Were you the guy that repeatedly claimed Arizona was red?

Texas is purple now at a minimum if all of these voting results hold up. R's better get out and vote.

Not at all. I just believe it to be true and just comedering what that poster said.

I don't believe it will be the +14 Trump this time around, but Paxton should win by 5+. Abbott... Do we even need to talk about this race?

TEXAS IS RED!


Certainly hope so. Just hard to tell for me.

This election is Reminiscent of Trump in 2020 when we lived in Dallas. Knew many friends who sat out because of "mean tweets" or straight up switched parties.

And that got us four years of open borders and Dem policy to mutilate children's genitals. Elections have consequences, so they say.
Im Gipper
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Quote:

Texas is purple now at a minimum


Is Colorado purple?


Texas has ZERO statewide democrats and Trump won by almost 14 points.

You have to ignore reality to call texas "purple".

I'm Gipper
Gigem314
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Windy City Ag said:




It's expected for the minority party to turnout more in a mid-term cycle. I think the Dems are going to need a bigger surge than that if they hope to win anything in Texas. They need massive turnout and enthusiasm.
PaulsBunions
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YouBet
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Im Gipper said:

Quote:

Texas is purple now at a minimum


Is Colorado purple?


Texas has ZERO statewide democrats and Trump won by almost 14 points.

You have to ignore reality to call texas "purple".


CO is blue.

I also said Texas is purple if the R's don't show up and vote.

Right now there is so much contradictory data out there on this election I'm not sure anyone truly knows what to believe anymore. I do know the Democrats are going to profusely lie about anything and everything because that is a core value of theirs, but there seems to be definite smoke here against the R's.
nortex97
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Polymarket/Kalshi aren't accurate predictors at all right now. Throwing out Marist, CNN, and yougov as trash polls Vivek is ahead, and all of the early vote metrics in Ohio have the GOP in the drivers seat.

I personally think it's silly to look at polymarket/kalshi too much as it is basically a survey of coastal elites putting some 'fun money' into the gambling market (which itself is utterly corrupt, but off topic).

Even Georgia could wind up competitive imho.
will25u
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The reason I think everyone is discombobulated is because people are comparing votes and modeled votes against different years to try and latch on to something.

2024 Presidential year.
2026 Somewhere in between.
2022 Midterm year


Windy City Ag
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Nate Silver's model shifted blue in his latest update. It now predicts a 52-48 Senate edge as the base case.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/nate-silver-revises-democrats-chances-102513300.html

Quote:

Nate Silver revises Democrats' chances of winning the Senate

Polling guru Nate Silver has upgraded Democrats' chances of winning control of the U.S. Senate in November's midterm elections, with his forecast now giving the party a 75 percent probability of victory.

Silver's FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast, published by Silver Bulletin, previously classified Democrats' chances as "Lean D" as their prospects of retaking the chamber improved. The forecast has now moved into the "Likely D" category, marking a further shift in the model's outlook.

FLIPR stands for Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings. According to Silver's explanation of the FLIPR methodology, the model combines polling data with other indicators alongside ratings from election analysts.

"FLIPR essentially consists of three different layers stacked on top of one another: polls, non-polling leading indicators (e.g., fundraising, incumbency) or what we sometimes call 'fundamentals,' and then a final layer of race ratings from longstanding outside expert groups like the Cook Political Report," Silver explains.

The model runs 40,000 simulations each time it is updated to estimate possible election outcomes. It also accounts for the possibility that polling errors may affect multiple races at once, rather than treating every contest as entirely independent.



 
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