Florida Early Voting

130,356 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by Maacus
AgBQ-00
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
The Debt said:

aginresearch said:

And they probably do. Trump campaign seems awfully happy with Florida. Biden campaign is talking about alternate paths without Florida. It's true the Democrats can win without Florida but it becomes harder and Florida is a bell weather state for other demographic groups throughout the battleground states.
If Florida gets called before the polls close, does anyone actually think Florida is some sort of bubble? Some one-off?
I don't think they can officially call it before all the polls in the state close.
"The Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution was never designed to restrain the people. It was designed to restrain the government."
beerad12man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Watch Marion county for a good representation of the rust belt states.
Up 38k for Republicans? 99,204 to 61,649. 38,854 NPAs and 75% casted.

Pretty much done huh?

Reasoning for that? I'm not familiar with Marion County. Assuming same demographic?
TravelAg2004
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Cactus Jack said:

Florida not in the bag yet. Independent voters are huge here.

Based on current numbers:

Hypothetical (just one out of a gazillion scenarios):
Indies (2,484,588) split evenly.
Trump flips 2% of registered Dems.
Biden flips 4.1% of registered GOP (yes, I know ).

Result:
Trump 5,273,334
Biden 5,273,044\
Virtual tie.

A lot of polls going toward a Biden win in Florida are doing so because they think he has a good chunk of the independent voters. If that happens then he could still win FL even with GOP surge.

Hypothetical:
Biden wins 55% of independent vote.
Other voters all stay with their registered party for the most part (unrealistic, but that seems to be the assumption of a LOT of these twitter posts).

Result:
Biden 5,302,722
Trump 5,243,655

Need to get that lead BIGGER!
But you're making some assumptions that don't show in the data.

In 2016, Trump carried the independents by 4%. Looking at other areas of the state, Dems won Broward County by almost 38%. Currently, Broward is only up about 18%. So that means Dem votes are WAY down.

Why would independents who broke for Trump last time by heavy Biden when solid Dems aren't voting for Biden as much as they did for Hillary?

It doesn't make any sense. You can't look at just one number without seeing how other places you can measure are doing.
aginresearch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
To clarify Trump won by +113k votes over Clinton in 2016. Republicans had a +55k margin in total votes cast versus the Democrats in 2016. Right now the Republicans have an almost +200k votes cast margin vs the Democrats. The math is not very hard. The NPAs are rapidly becoming irrelevant.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
How long do you want to ignore this user?
beerad12man said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Watch Marion county for a good representation of the rust belt states.
Up 38k for Republicans? 99,204 to 61,649. 38,854 NPAs and 75% casted.

Pretty much done huh?

Reasoning for that? I'm not familiar with Marion County. Assuming same demographic?


Watch for how it does versus 2016. Marion is an industrial county with tons of factories. Lots of rust belt transplants there.
beerad12man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

beerad12man said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Watch Marion county for a good representation of the rust belt states.
Up 38k for Republicans? 99,204 to 61,649. 38,854 NPAs and 75% casted.

Pretty much done huh?

Reasoning for that? I'm not familiar with Marion County. Assuming same demographic?


Watch for how it does versus 2016. Marion is an industrial county with tons of factories. Lots of rust belt transplants there.
107,000 for Trump to 62,000 with 175k total ballots.

Now it's 99k to 61k with 198k ballots. 35 NPAs. Similar depending on the NPAs.
Hood
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Looks like Nathan here is assuming a huge Biden split of the unaffilated ballots...

Prosperdick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Just remember all that landslide talk for Biden included him winning Florida, and winning it comfortably. Now apply that logic to other swing state races. I think the libs are in for a long night and hopefully a LONG four years.
aginresearch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Good point. When you add in Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina it becomes hard to imagine those rust belt states all going to Biden. The demographics are screaming Trump once that happens. History is repeating itself and I'm sure all of us here can tell you exactly why it's happening.
Faustus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Prosperdick said:

Faustus said:

Prosperdick said:

Faustus said:

Prosperdick said:

DTP02 said:

Hood said:

GUYS! TAP TEH BRAKES!




"Listen, I'm not going to get into these Florida early voting numbers at all, because there's really no point. But here's a slight trend in one county I found that might make a tiny difference in the projected totals if it continues to grow!"
Sounds like he paused his FIFA soccer video game to giddily post some positive news. What a joke that moron is and libs should be ashamed they deified him like they did lord fauci but libs never feel shame, it's part of their nature.
I will be a little bit ashamed if POTUS is re-elected (but only as it reflects on us as a country to the world - there's no one who would personally call me to account), but he will still be our POTUS and life will go on.

Also I don't recall deifying Silver or Lord Fauci, much less feel the need to be ashamed for some third party's work. If anyone needs to be ashamed about Fauci it's POTUS, since he's the one that put him on the White House Corona Virus task force and let him preside as its unofficial spokesman to date. But if anyone doesn't feel shame as part of their nature, well, ahem.
For someone who doesn't feel shame....5 edit posts!
Sometimes I get upwards of 10 edits on a post. I shoot from the hip and then worry at 'em.

I should have gone with

"POTUS put this guy on his task force and let him be its spokesman through today, and your going to hang the shame of that on me?"

Much more pithy.
Fauci has essentially been in that role since the Reagan administration...can you imagine the howling of the media if he wasn't placed on the task force. Trump didn't have any choice and for better or worse listened to his recommendations. It's what Biden, who you voted for, would have done too.
I've posted several times in the past that I wasn't going to (and for the record now didn't) vote for Biden because of the credible assault allegations from the 90s (which seems like such ancient news given the Hunter stuff). 3rd party at the top for the second time in a row, although I do consider myself a lib. Also voted for Republican judges in Harris County (where I could since Dems were running unopposed in quite a few) since I'm a corporate attorney cog.

POTUS could have, and did, put anyone he wanted to on his task force. Moreover POTUS has never cared about lib or MSM howls when hiring and firing his people (except right before the election with Fauci, as he recently alluded to).

But sure what libs/MSM thought about some obscure Dr. guided POTUS' hand. POTUS hired who he was told was best for the position by his advisors, not who he thought the media was going to insist on.
Cactus Jack
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
aginresearch said:

And they probably do. Trump campaign seems awfully happy with Florida. Biden campaign is talking about alternate paths without Florida. It's true the Democrats can win without Florida but it becomes harder and Florida is a bell weather state for other demographic groups throughout the battleground states.T
The Biden campaign knew if Biden won in FL, the path to 270 for Trump would be incredibly unlikely (if not borderline impossible) but they didn't seem to invest much in a winning strategy there.

They pretty much conceded the state last week when the SuperPAC pulled ads. Very odd strategy sitting on so much cash compared to the opponent. They didn't want to put in the ground game.

To me the lack of effort in trying to win FL is a stunning blunder.
Prosperdick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Hood said:

Looks like Nathan here is assuming a huge Biden split of the unaffilated ballots...


Of course he is, his polling numbers can't possibly be wrong. He's Nate Silver dammit!!! Something tells me he's going to wear that FIFA game out tonight.
beerad12man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
aginresearch said:

To clarify Trump won by +113k votes over Clinton in 2016. Republicans had a +55k margin in total votes cast versus the Democrats in 2016. Right now the Republicans have an almost +200k votes cast margin vs the Democrats. The math is not very hard. The NPAs are rapidly becoming irrelevant.
They'd have to be about 60%, if not 65%? Right? I can't imagine any more than 55% breaking to Biden. Even that's hard to imagine since they were 4 down last time. A 9 point differential? Seems all but over, but I might be getting ahead of myself.
Prosperdick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Faustus said:

Prosperdick said:

Faustus said:

Prosperdick said:

Faustus said:

Prosperdick said:

DTP02 said:

Hood said:

GUYS! TAP TEH BRAKES!




"Listen, I'm not going to get into these Florida early voting numbers at all, because there's really no point. But here's a slight trend in one county I found that might make a tiny difference in the projected totals if it continues to grow!"
Sounds like he paused his FIFA soccer video game to giddily post some positive news. What a joke that moron is and libs should be ashamed they deified him like they did lord fauci but libs never feel shame, it's part of their nature.
I will be a little bit ashamed if POTUS is re-elected (but only as it reflects on us as a country to the world - there's no one who would personally call me to account), but he will still be our POTUS and life will go on.

Also I don't recall deifying Silver or Lord Fauci, much less feel the need to be ashamed for some third party's work. If anyone needs to be ashamed about Fauci it's POTUS, since he's the one that put him on the White House Corona Virus task force and let him preside as its unofficial spokesman to date. But if anyone doesn't feel shame as part of their nature, well, ahem.
For someone who doesn't feel shame....5 edit posts!
Sometimes I get upwards of 10 edits on a post. I shoot from the hip and then worry at 'em.

I should have gone with

"POTUS put this guy on his task force and let him be its spokesman through today, and your going to hang the shame of that on me?"

Much more pithy.
Fauci has essentially been in that role since the Reagan administration...can you imagine the howling of the media if he wasn't placed on the task force. Trump didn't have any choice and for better or worse listened to his recommendations. It's what Biden, who you voted for, would have done too.
I've posted several times in the past that I wasn't going to (and for the record now didn't) vote for Biden because of the credible assault allegations from the 90s (which seems like such ancient news given the Hunter stuff). 3rd party at the top for the second time in a row, although I do consider myself a lib. Also voted for Republican judges in Harris County (where I could since Dems were running unopposed in quite a few) since I'm a corporate attorney cog.

POTUS could have, and did, put anyone he wanted to on his task force. Moreover POTUS has never cared what lib howls when hiring and firing his people. But sure what libs thought about some obscure Dr. guided POTUS' hand. He hired who he was told was best for the position, not who he thought the media was going to insist on.

If you care to search for it it wouldn't be hard to find.
Getting into thread derail territory so last post. Good on your for not voting for dementia Joe!
aginresearch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I think that is where the 250k number comes in. Hit a +250k differential and it's hard for a 55/45 break to even overcome that.
Cactus Jack
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
beerad12man said:

aginresearch said:

To clarify Trump won by +113k votes over Clinton in 2016. Republicans had a +55k margin in total votes cast versus the Democrats in 2016. Right now the Republicans have an almost +200k votes cast margin vs the Democrats. The math is not very hard. The NPAs are rapidly becoming irrelevant.
They'd have to be about 60%, if not 65%? Right? I can't imagine any more than 55% breaking to Biden. Even that's hard to imagine since they were 4 down last time. A 9 point differential? Seems all but over, but I might be getting ahead of myself.
Right now they'd only have to be 55% (a 10 point margin). I agree that it's unlikely there would be a 10 point or so swing in independent voters TOWARD Biden when the Dem turnout is down.

Seems ridiculous that Democrats wouldn't show up for their candidate but non-Democrats would.
Keegan99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG


A reminder on the early vote totals.
aginresearch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
So that's where people who are saying Trump needs to be up +300k are pulling it from, Nate Silver. Well if he says it must be gospel!
Prosperdick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Apparently the joeisdone website is a bit slow, this one has R's up over 200,000 now!!!!
FbgTxAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Keegan99 said:



A reminder on the early vote totals.
I don't believe this is true in many places. They're not even gonna count mail-ins till tomorrow in some places.

EDIT - Oh. This is the Florida thread. Yes this is probably correct.

Sorry
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
FireAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Nate is scrambling to try to rationalize what is happening...

He's going to miss on 2020 exponentially worse than he did 2016...
aginresearch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Exactly! Democrats don't show up but NPAs all the sudden do. Right! Not buying that one.
DTP02
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
The Debt said:

aginresearch said:

And they probably do. Trump campaign seems awfully happy with Florida. Biden campaign is talking about alternate paths without Florida. It's true the Democrats can win without Florida but it becomes harder and Florida is a bell weather state for other demographic groups throughout the battleground states.
If Florida gets called before the polls close, does anyone actually think Florida is some sort of bubble? Some one-off?


With the unique Cuban vote breaking more for Trump due to socialism concerns, and the R governor favoring freedom over fear in COVID19 response, there are some factors at play in FL that aren't the same in the rust belt states.

But if the margin gets as high as 4 % for Trump in FL then that's high enough to indicate really good things in other states as well.
TravelAg2004
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Yeah...I just don't see it.

From all the numbers people are showing, EVERY FL county is +R compared to 2016. Yes, there are counties that will still go blue, but not as much as they did.

I don't understand how all the data shows the R and D votes are trending towards R but the NPA are somehow all going to D?
FriscoKid
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
aginresearch said:

I think that is where the 250k number comes in. Hit a +250k differential and it's hard for a 55/45 break to even overcome that.
Yep, that's what I think he was saying and we are getting really close now.
If masks work then why didn't they?
beerad12man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
True. My math was quick and off.

Either way, a 9-10 point swing seems almost unbelievable. I don't know where they go that, other than their polls once again being off. I can't imagine that many independents would be racing to the polls for an extreme and unexciting candidate.
The Debt
How long do you want to ignore this user?
aginresearch said:

So that's where people who are saying Trump needs to be up +300k are pulling it from, Nate Silver. Well if he says it must be gospel!
Thats called moving the goalposts. Are we sure KeithDB isnt Nate Silver's social media director?
Zemira
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
And the I would guess a percentage of the Dems who did show up to vote, didn't vote for Biden.
lobopride
How long do you want to ignore this user?
TravelAg2004 said:

Yeah...I just don't see it.

From all the numbers people are showing, EVERY FL county is +R compared to 2016. Yes, there are counties that will still go blue, but not as much as they did.

I don't understand how all the data shows the R and D votes are trending towards R but the NPA are somehow all going to D?
It only makes sense if you shut your brain off.
The man who has no refuge in himself, who lives, so to speak in his front rooms, in the outer whirlwind of things and opinions, is not properly a personality at all. He floats with the current, who does not guide himself according to higher principles, who has no ideal, no convictions - such a man is a mere article of the world's furniture - a thing to be moved, instead of a living and moving being - an echo, not a voice.
TravelAg2004
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
lobopride said:

TravelAg2004 said:

Yeah...I just don't see it.

From all the numbers people are showing, EVERY FL county is +R compared to 2016. Yes, there are counties that will still go blue, but not as much as they did.

I don't understand how all the data shows the R and D votes are trending towards R but the NPA are somehow all going to D?
It only makes sense if you shut your brain off.
Ahh!! I knew I was doing something wrong.
Well shoot
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FireAg said:

Nate is scrambling to try to rationalize what is happening...

He's going to miss on 2020 exponentially worse than he did 2016...
As it should be. The hardest lies to stop believing are the ones we tell ourselves.
beerad12man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
beerad12man said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Watch Marion county for a good representation of the rust belt states.
Up 38k for Republicans? 99,204 to 61,649. 34,854 NPAs and 75% casted.

Pretty much done huh?

Reasoning for that? I'm not familiar with Marion County. Assuming same demographic?
Now 100,251 to 62,202. Outpaced them 1047 to 553 in the last 25 minutes.
beerad12man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
TravelAg2004 said:

Yeah...I just don't see it.

From all the numbers people are showing, EVERY FL county is +R compared to 2016. Yes, there are counties that will still go blue, but not as much as they did.

I don't understand how all the data shows the R and D votes are trending towards R but the NPA are somehow all going to D?
There's not a whole lot of logic in it, other than trusting the polling that is proving more and more to be off.
Hood
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Where'd everyone go? It's been like 25 minutes since the last post?

Did the unaffiliated ballots split 100/0 to Biden or what?
Rendered Fat
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Waters just said that Trump was only up by about 100,000 so maybe it's slipping.
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.