Florida Early Voting

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Cheetah01
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7:17p, 11/1/20
AG
Anyone know why we lost ground in Florida today?
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flashplayer
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In reply to Cheetah01 • 7:20p, 11/1/20
AG
Cheetah01 said:
Anyone know why we lost ground in Florida today?


If you're a dem, it's cause your party is bat shi crazy.

If you're a Republican, you didn't lose any ground today. See last few posts.
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Cheetah01
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In reply to flashplayer • 7:24p, 11/1/20
AG
I'm not a dem but I am not following why we (Trump campaign) lost ground in Florida today.
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black_ice
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In reply to Cheetah01 • 7:26p, 11/1/20
Cheetah01 said:
I'm not a dem but I am not following why we (Trump campaign) lost ground in Florida today.


What ground was lost? Be specific.
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Cheetah01
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In reply to black_ice • 7:29p, 11/1/20
AG
black_ice said:
Cheetah01 said:
I'm not a dem but I am not following why we (Trump campaign) lost ground in Florida today.


What ground was lost? Be specific.


This morning we were down by 95K votes in FL and we are now down 101K. Just curious if anyone knows why we lost ground after a week of gaining ground.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
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1836er
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In reply to Cheetah01 • 7:31p, 11/1/20
AG
Cheetah01 said:
black_ice said:
Cheetah01 said:
I'm not a dem but I am not following why we (Trump campaign) lost ground in Florida today.


What ground was lost? Be specific.


This morning we were down by 95K votes in FL and we are now down 101K. Just curious if anyone knows why we lost ground after a week of gaining ground.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida
After after church (black churches) busing to polls by democrat GOTV is my guess.... and they apparently netted only 6K votes from that after losing tens of thousands per day for the last two weeks.
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Prosperdick
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7:35p, 11/1/20
AG
I did read that because of the hurricane warning for the panhandle that some traditionally red counties will be open tomorrow to make up for it.

We'll see what the final tally is tomorrow evening but there are still a lot more R super voters than D.
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Just an Ag
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7:16a, 11/2/20
AG


This election is going to be a nail biter, and I don't trust D's as far as I can throw them, and the last time threw one he went 5 feet.
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black_ice
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In reply to Just an Ag • 7:17a, 11/2/20
Just an Ag said:



We good then
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FbgTxAg
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In reply to Just an Ag • 7:21a, 11/2/20
AG
Just an Ag said:


This election is going to be a nail biter, and I don't trust D's as far as I can throw them, and the last time threw one he went 5 feet.


There are plenty of R votes left. And my best guess is that D's crossover is 8-10%. R crossover is 5%. Independents probably R + 2%.

Trump by 500,000 votes minimum.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
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black_ice
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In reply to Just an Ag • 7:23a, 11/2/20
Just an Ag said:


This election is going to be a nail biter, and I don't trust D's as far as I can throw them, and the last time threw one he went 5 feet.



Trump gonna curb stop tarded Biden. Have you seen the massive rallies??????
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will25u
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8:20a, 11/2/20
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aTm2004
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In reply to will25u • 9:02a, 11/2/20
AG
Bye bye lead.
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Gigemags382
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9:10a, 11/2/20
AG
Why have D's been gaining the past 24+ hours? I'm tracking periodically and had logged a D lead of 90k at 3:23PM on Saturday. Now it's a 109k D lead.

I'm not tracking IPEV and VBM separately. Was IPEV low yesterday (understandably) but VBM still being counted?

D's have still been gaining modestly this morning. Hopefully that starts shifting quite a bit here soon with the gulf/bay open for IPEV.
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will25u
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In reply to aTm2004 • 9:10a, 11/2/20
aTm2004 said:
Bye bye lead.
Gulf/Bay counties only had ~90k votes between the two of them TOTAL in 2016. Might chip away at the lead, but it is not going to be a lot.
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aginresearch
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 9:14a, 11/2/20
AG
Very few counties have in person early voting now and VBM is still coming in. Democrats lead will probably expand throughout the day. I didn't understand this and thought things would continue like last week but essentially everything shutdown after Saturday evening except for a handful of counties. I also did not factor in Halloween basically ending in person voting earlier in the day on Saturday.

Bottom line the Democrats will probably increase their early vote lead until in person resumes state wide tomorrow on election day.
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Cant Think of a Name
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9:17a, 11/2/20
AG
Maybe i am getting nervous on election eve, but it seems like the R momentum sure has slowed in Florida.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Cant Think of a Name • 9:17a, 11/2/20
AG
Cant Think of a Name said:
Maybe i am getting nervous on election eve, but it seems like the R momentum sure has slowed in Florida.
Polls are closed.
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Keegan99
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In reply to Cant Think of a Name • 9:17a, 11/2/20
AG
It has nothing to do with momentum. Polls haven't been open.
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Gigemags382
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In reply to aginresearch • 9:21a, 11/2/20
AG
aginresearch said:
Very few counties have in person early voting now and VBM is still coming in. Democrats lead will probably expand throughout the day. I didn't understand this and thought things would continue like last week but essentially everything shutdown after Saturday evening except for a handful of counties. I also did not factor in Halloween basically ending in person voting earlier in the day on Saturday.

Bottom line the Democrats will probably increase their early vote lead until in person resumes state wide tomorrow on election day.

Thanks. Do we know if the joeisdone site will be able to report Election Day data, or is it limited to IPEV/VBM?
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aginresearch
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 9:37a, 11/2/20
AG
I believe he will be updating election day ballots cast by registration in near real time like he is for in person early voting.
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HoustonAggie37713
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9:41a, 11/2/20
The Dems have had a week to react to poor numbers. Cheating about to go wild.
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 11:11a, 11/2/20
Gigemags382 said:
aginresearch said:
Very few counties have in person early voting now and VBM is still coming in. Democrats lead will probably expand throughout the day. I didn't understand this and thought things would continue like last week but essentially everything shutdown after Saturday evening except for a handful of counties. I also did not factor in Halloween basically ending in person voting earlier in the day on Saturday.

Bottom line the Democrats will probably increase their early vote lead until in person resumes state wide tomorrow on election day.

Thanks. Do we know if the joeisdone site will be able to report Election Day data, or is it limited to IPEV/VBM?
Gulf / Bay counties opened up IPEV today due to being closed over the weekend. So there is some IP voting going on today.


Are we concerned at all though that we had the lead down to 92k Friday and the expectation was to gain more ground but it suddenly went the other way? Why would we have over a weeks worth of R's gaining significant ground daily then suddenly the last two days go heavily D. Seems odd.
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astros4545
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 11:12a, 11/2/20
AG
Sundays are not good days due to Black church get out the vote efforts

Seems weird that religious people would vote D, but not everyone is as smart as I am
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to astros4545 • 11:14a, 11/2/20
astros4545 said:
Sundays are not good days due to Black church get out the vote efforts

Seems weird that religious people would vote D, but not everyone is as smart as I am
Jesus loves me this I know, for Joe Biden told me so. Little kids to Hunter belong. Joe is weak but the brainwashing is strong....
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Gyles Marrett
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11:17a, 11/2/20
But is the general consensus that we are still confident in FL or did this swing it back to the concerned column?
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txags92
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 11:18a, 11/2/20
AG
Gyles Marrett said:
Gigemags382 said:
aginresearch said:
Very few counties have in person early voting now and VBM is still coming in. Democrats lead will probably expand throughout the day. I didn't understand this and thought things would continue like last week but essentially everything shutdown after Saturday evening except for a handful of counties. I also did not factor in Halloween basically ending in person voting earlier in the day on Saturday.

Bottom line the Democrats will probably increase their early vote lead until in person resumes state wide tomorrow on election day.

Thanks. Do we know if the joeisdone site will be able to report Election Day data, or is it limited to IPEV/VBM?
Gulf / Bay counties opened up IPEV today due to being closed over the weekend. So there is some IP voting going on today.


Are we concerned at all though that we had the lead down to 92k Friday and the expectation was to gain more ground but it suddenly went the other way? Why would we have over a weeks worth of R's gaining significant ground daily then suddenly the last two days go heavily D. Seems odd.
Once the polls close, only the dead can vote. And they always go heavy for democrats...
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aginresearch
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 11:18a, 11/2/20
AG
It was on Saturday that the gap narrowed to +92k for the Democrats. Saturday afternoon IPEV fell off cliff due to Halloween. Yesterday most counties were closed for IPEV and more VBM ballots came in yesterday. Today only a handful of counties are open for IPEV and more VBM will come in.

Democrat totals will increase until tomorrow. Most people who watch Florida expected this to happen yesterday and today.
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AgBQ-00
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11:19a, 11/2/20
AG
This does not change the underlying fact that the R's have more voters left that have not voted yet. Also believe the crossover is going to be big. But we won't know until tomorrow.
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 11:21a, 11/2/20
AgBQ-00 said:
This does not change the underlying fact that the R's have more voters left that have not voted yet. Also believe the crossover is going to be big. But we won't know until tomorrow.
That was my thinking but the topic seemed to have gone quiet. Thanks for confirming.
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bmks270
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11:40a, 11/2/20
AG
800k votes short of 2016 turnout.

If Trump wins 800k Election Day by a 20% margin, which is the current projection based on voter intent, he will win (160k votes).

Turnout will probably be double that, and with the gains in the black voter and latino voter in the state, I think Trump is going to win.

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Gigemags382
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5:48a, 11/3/20
AG
The first Election Day votes (by party) are on the joeisdone site!

Rep 4
Dem 1

It's happening!!
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45-70Ag
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5:53a, 11/3/20
AG
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Gigemags382
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6:13a, 11/3/20
AG
7:02 update

Rep 65
Dem 28
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GCP12
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6:18a, 11/3/20
AG
I have no clue what this means
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