Gyles Marrett said:

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about the hit the 500K IPEV advantage for R's! Gap under 139K now....

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501,678!!!

Just did! R+502K IPEV

akm91 said:

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Just did! R+502K IPEV

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What does this mark and mean as regards going into Election Day again? .

+4,400 votes past 60 min

Interesting bit from the creator of joeisdone.

This is a guy who is motivated enough to spend many, many hours on a GOP voting project, but is still scared enough to not admit it publicly.

It means that R's have a +500K vote advantage vs D's for in person early voting at this point intime. When you combine it with early voting by mail, the D advantage is less than 150K and rapidly shrinking at approximately 4K per hour. R's have significant advantage on ED, I think it was +200K in 2016.

All the data is based on party registration and does not account for cross over voting. There are lots of polls that indicate significant D's voting R this election (especially Latino and Black vote) which means, in my opinion, Trump is going to blow Biden out in FL.

akm91 said:

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It means that R's have a +500K vote advantage vs D's for in person early voting at this point intime. When you combine it with early voting by mail, the D advantage is less than 150K and rapidly shrinking at approximately 4K per hour. R's have significant advantage on ED, I think it was +200K in 2016.

All the data is based on party registration and does not account for cross over voting. There are lots of polls that indicate significant D's voting R this election (especially Latino and Black vote) which means, in my opinion, Trump is going to blow Biden out in FL.

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Thanks for outlining all that clearly.

I'm gonna go against the grain here and predict that all this EV analysis in FL is smoke and mirrors (and grifting from Larry Schweikart). Biden will net more cross-party and independents than Trump and win a narrow one.

I have nothing to back up this prediction and expect some cry laugh emoji responses. We'll know pretty early on Nov 3 whether I have to eat crow!

Keegan99 said:

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Interesting bit from the creator of joeisdone.

This is a guy who is motivated enough to spend many, many hours on a GOP voting project, but is still scared enough to not admit it publicly.

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Did this get deleted or is my browser acting up?

I think it got deleted.

Basically confessed to being a public Biden supporter, and that it was necessary for his career. And that PC culture has the strongest hold on the mid-career professional class.

Edit: If he deleted it, I grabbed a screenshot.

Don't see any reason why Independents that went for Trump before would switch to Biden's economic plan now.

titan said:

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Don't see any reason why Independents that went for Trump before would switch to Biden's economic plan now.

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I'll add to that with how many Dems that voted for Hillary can't stomach Biden's economic plan either?

That could be the big surprise in this cycle. The amount of Dem crossover vote.

The key metric lurker is looking for is the R that didn't vote in 2016 or voted L and casting their vote for Biden in 2020. According to Florida SOS that's about 200K voters.

Those who voted for Trump in 2016 aren't changing their vote in 2020. Period.

I didn't vote for Trump in 2016. Voted Johnson, then voted in the D primary this year because I didn't want Sanders wing getting any traction. I voted for Trump in the election and know 27 other people who didn't vote or voted Johnson who cast their vote for Trump.

Now if all 200K of those voted Biden, then you have to worry about the crazy crossover of D Latinos to Trump in South Florida.

Any way you cut it, I don't see a path for Biden in Florida. The only other one would be to flip the Independent vote by 25 points from 2016. I don't see Trump by 14 in 2020 with Indies but I also don't see Biden by 9.... really in any battleground.

aggiehawg said:

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titan said:

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Don't see any reason why Independents that went for Trump before would switch to Biden's economic plan now.

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I'll add to that with how many Dems that voted for Hillary can't stomach Biden's economic plan either?

That could be the big surprise in this cycle. The amount of Dem crossover vote.

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In direct support of your point, is this thread, though it concerns Michigan!

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3151454

texaglurkerguy said:

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I'm gonna go against the grain here and predict that all this EV analysis in FL is smoke and mirrors (and grifting from Larry Schweikart). Biden will net more cross-party and independents than Trump and win a narrow one.

I have nothing to back up this prediction and expect some cry laugh emoji responses. We'll know pretty early on Nov 3 whether I have to eat crow!

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How many Johnson voters will vote for Trump now vs. Biden's big government/Dark Winter plan?

One less Florida voter

+4,800 votes past hour

For those that don't think R's will turn out like they normally do on ED:

Polk County. Essentially tied right now currently in EV (IP and by mail). Was the same in 2016 with the early vote.

Trump beat Hillary in Polk County by 14% and the end of the party.

Indies in 2016 was +4 for Trump. I just don't see Biden making any significant dent into that margin.

texaglurkerguy said:

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I'm gonna go against the grain here and predict that all this EV analysis in FL is smoke and mirrors (and grifting from Larry Schweikart). Biden will net more cross-party and independents than Trump and win a narrow one.

I have nothing to back up this prediction and expect some cry laugh emoji responses. We'll know pretty early on Nov 3 whether I have to eat crow!

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Ask and thou shall receive...

Here comes the cavalry!

akm91 said:

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It means that R's have a +500K vote advantage vs D's for in person early voting at this point intime. When you combine it with early voting by mail, the D advantage is less than 150K and rapidly shrinking at approximately 4K per hour. R's have significant advantage on ED, I think it was +200K in 2016.

All the data is based on party registration and does not account for cross over voting. There are lots of polls that indicate significant D's voting R this election (especially Latino and Black vote) which means, in my opinion, Trump is going to blow Biden out in FL.

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I think if Trump were in trouble in Florida we would know it. Desantis has this. Time to focus on the Midwest.

All I see is a messy mailroom and a tweet trying to get attention. Odd to anyone he didn't zoom in and actually show any of what we were looking at was ballots?

Curious question.

All these tallies just are based on known party affiliation. No one really knows who voted what yet. For all we know a lot of Dems switched over. Right?

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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akm91 said:

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It means that R's have a +500K vote advantage vs D's for in person early voting at this point intime. When you combine it with early voting by mail, the D advantage is less than 150K and rapidly shrinking at approximately 4K per hour. R's have significant advantage on ED, I think it was +200K in 2016.

All the data is based on party registration and does not account for cross over voting. There are lots of polls that indicate significant D's voting R this election (especially Latino and Black vote) which means, in my opinion, Trump is going to blow Biden out in FL.

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I think if Trump were in trouble in Florida we would know it. Desantis has this. Time to focus on the Midwest.

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I think if the R's were winning in Florida, you would know it through Trumps tweets.

So one post office has a backed up mail room. If there are a lot of ballots in there how many net votes is that for Dems? 100 at most?

FL is lost to dems

Edit: meant to be in reply to bigfreddie

rgag12 said:

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So one post office has a backed up mail room. If there are a lot of ballots in there how many net votes is that for Dems? 100 at most?

FL is lost to dems

Edit: meant to be in reply to bigfreddie

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Keep in mind this is Miami Dade. more less, the hood.

Like this?

How about the Politico article saying Biden is in trouble with Hispanic support in Florida?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/biden-narrow-lead-florida-hispanics-433570

rgag12 said:

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So one post office has a backed up mail room. If there are a lot of ballots in there how many net votes is that for Dems? 100 at most?

FL is lost to dems

Edit: meant to be in reply to bigfreddie

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Don't feed the liberal trolls.

CashMcMog said:

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Curious question.

All these tallies just are based on known party affiliation. No one really knows who voted what yet. For all we know a lot of Dems switched over. Right?

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As far as I know, yes, it's only on party affiliation. One thing we do know are that a large majority of Cubans and Venezuelans in South Florida are voting from Trump. I'd venture to guess many would be registered as democrats.

aTm2004 said:

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Like this?

How about the Politico article saying Biden is in trouble with Hispanic support in Florida?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/biden-narrow-lead-florida-hispanics-433570

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Negative. Not winning BIG in Florida if at all.

haybob15 said:

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rgag12 said:

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So one post office has a backed up mail room. If there are a lot of ballots in there how many net votes is that for Dems? 100 at most?

FL is lost to dems

Edit: meant to be in reply to bigfreddie

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Don't feed the liberal trolls.

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and if the Dems are planning fraud they are really terrible at making it look real....VBM has really slowed up. Almost non existent now. So we going to go 5 days or so with basically no more coming in and then on 11/4 300K ballots are going to show up? Yeah that wouldn't look suspicious