Florida Early Voting

131,535 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 6 mo ago by Maacus
akm91
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I knew they are motivated to vote and totally anti-communist but still didn't fathom the significant shift in support.

Since I'm no longer in FL it's harder for me to keep up with the mood in state.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
akm91
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D advantage is down to +157K; this is shaping up to be a good day
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
DTP02
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aginresearch said:

I think your assessment is correct. I'm not concerned about crossover. I am concerned about where NPAs go. That's the other number to be concerned with as well. The NPA lean plus the Democrats early voting margin is the number to beat. What is that NPA lean? Is it +20% Biden, +10% Biden, 50/50?


The projections I've seen say independents are breaking 55-45 for Biden in FL, which isn't enough to put a Trump W in doubt.
aggiehawg
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akm91 said:

I knew they are motivated to vote and totally anti-communist but still didn't fathom the significant shift in support.

Since I'm no longer in FL it's harder for me to keep up with the mood in state.

Well this is the first time in modern history that socialism/communism is actually on the ballot. Damn straight that would cause a major shift.
aginresearch
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Yup. I agree that NPA vote split looks reasonable.

I actually think in early voting the Democrats will have a NPA lead of +150k. I think they will also have a +80k lead on the Republicans prior to elections day. Giving the margin of +230k for the Republicans to beat. My opinion is that the Republicans will take upwards of 60% of election day voting which will be around 1.5 - 2 million votes cast. That is down from the 3 million in 2016. That would mean Republicans would win election day by around 300k votes. Resulting in a 70k win.
aginresearch
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I think that is probably accurate.
DTP02
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Prosperdick said:

bmks270 said:

Prosperdick said:

bmks270 said:

Prosperdick said:

bmks270 said:

Prosperdick said:




This is meaningless because way more democrats voted by mail, so of course their in person voting is lower than 2016.
Those are two blue counties that are way under performing in TOTAL, not just in person, which of course, we know the frightened Dems are cowering in their homes so they are voting more by mail. It looks like you are just a drive by and if you would ready the entire thread you would understand his methodology but I've already wasted enough key strokes on you, have a good day.


I started the thread and have read every post and posted a few analysis.

Repent.


OK my apologies but reading comprehension might not be your greatest strength.

Larry is comparing the OVERALL lead going into election day which includes in person early voting PLUS vote by mail. Your comment that it's meaningless is flat out wrong and in fact works AGAINST Dems because they have cannibalized more of their election day voting than Republicans.

If your stance was correct and more Dems have voted by mail, all things being equal, they should have a BIGGER lead going into election day than they did in 2016. It is certainly not trending that way.

Again, apologies for calling you a drive by and thank you for starting this thread.


I just see him focusing on the in person early vote. Which I think isn't as useful as looking at the total including mail ins.

The most useful data from the in person early voting is that the last time I check Trump was +13% among in person voters. Meaning Trump should get that or better on Election Day. The total vote cast is still 2 million short of 2016. If they show up on Election Day then Trump has this in the bag as he will far exceed a +10% margin, and the 200k vote deficit.
Independent lean or crossover votes could always throw a wrench in things and go for Biden, but Trump is sitting pretty based on voter turnout data.
There are WAY more 4/4 Republican registered voters that have yet to vote than 4/4 Democrat registered voters (4/4 means they have voted in each of the past 4 elections and are considered a very safe bet).


I'm pretty sure I saw yesterday that there are as many R super voters left as D and independent super voters combined. The math is pretty insurmountable in favor of Trump in FL at this point.

The question now moves to whether this will be an election where the incumbent wins the two biggest swing states in FL and OH, but still loses.
bmks270
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aginresearch said:

Yup. I agree that NPA vote split looks reasonable.

I actually think in early voting the Democrats will have a NPA lead of +150k. I think they will also have a +80k lead on the Republicans prior to elections day. Giving the margin of +230k for the Republicans to beat. My opinion is that the Republicans will take upwards of 60% of election day voting which will be around 1.5 - 2 million votes cast. That is down from the 3 million in 2016. That would mean Republicans would win election day by around 300k votes. Resulting in a 70k win.


That's a very slim margin. Does it account for the shift among Hispanics in favor of Trump.
SLAM
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bmks270 said:

akm91 said:

Holy cow! Jumped from +13 to +48?

Cubans recognize communists when they see them.

Is there any other demographic that leans R +48 ?

This is a demographic that I think republicans can keep even after Trump is gone from politics. The Democrats aren't getting any less radical.


Maybe Mormons and the Amish are that conservative.
astros4545
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+6,200 votes past 60 minutes

Very good pace
aggiehawg
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SLAM said:

bmks270 said:

akm91 said:

Holy cow! Jumped from +13 to +48?

Cubans recognize communists when they see them.

Is there any other demographic that leans R +48 ?

This is a demographic that I think republicans can keep even after Trump is gone from politics. The Democrats aren't getting any less radical.


Maybe Mormons and the Amish are that conservative.
Only one percent of Amish/Mennonite voters are registered as Democrats.
aginresearch
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No it doesn't. I should clarify I think that is best case scenario for Democrats under current trends. I think it is entirely possible that NPAs are split more like 52D/48R in early voting which would mean very little pickup for the Democrats in the NPA vote. I also think Republican voters could exceed 60% on election day and if turnout is closer to 2 million then that gap blows wide open.

The key here is getting that D/R early voting spread under 100k. I have a feeling it'll be around 125K end of today. If Republicans over perform from now until Sunday evening then it's possible for it to be near zero on election day.
Cepe
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I would like to say this has been one of the more interesting threads leading up to election day. I appreciate the work everyone is doing looking at the numbers and trying to decipher what they mean. Will be interesting to do a post-mortem on this thread after election day to see if it was accurate or not.

Thanks for all the efforts everyone!
SLAM
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aggiehawg said:

SLAM said:

bmks270 said:

akm91 said:

Holy cow! Jumped from +13 to +48?

Cubans recognize communists when they see them.

Is there any other demographic that leans R +48 ?

This is a demographic that I think republicans can keep even after Trump is gone from politics. The Democrats aren't getting any less radical.


Maybe Mormons and the Amish are that conservative.
Only one percent of Amish/Mennonite voters are registered as Democrats.


Wow!
SwigAg11
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aggiehawg said:

SLAM said:

bmks270 said:

akm91 said:

Holy cow! Jumped from +13 to +48?

Cubans recognize communists when they see them.

Is there any other demographic that leans R +48 ?

This is a demographic that I think republicans can keep even after Trump is gone from politics. The Democrats aren't getting any less radical.


Maybe Mormons and the Amish are that conservative.
Only one percent of Amish/Mennonite voters are registered as Democrats.


Have I read correctly that the Trump campaign has been targeting the Amish/Mennonite communities to register since 2016? Do we have an idea on how many new registrations have been added in these groups since 2016?

I'm assuming that these are groups that no polls would be able to capture.
Zemira
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SwigAg11 said:

aggiehawg said:

SLAM said:

bmks270 said:

akm91 said:

Holy cow! Jumped from +13 to +48?

Cubans recognize communists when they see them.

Is there any other demographic that leans R +48 ?

This is a demographic that I think republicans can keep even after Trump is gone from politics. The Democrats aren't getting any less radical.


Maybe Mormons and the Amish are that conservative.
Only one percent of Amish/Mennonite voters are registered as Democrats.


Have I read correctly that the Trump campaign has been targeting the Amish/Mennonite communities to register since 2016? Do we have an idea on how many new registrations have been added in these groups since 2016?

I'm assuming that these are groups that no polls would be able to capture.
They could likely capture the Mennonite communities, not the Amish. A lot of Mennonites are more modern and embrace technology. A few have Youtube channels, they drive cars, have cell phones, but are very very conservative and moral in their beliefs.
Prosperdick
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aginresearch said:

No it doesn't. I should clarify I think that is best case scenario for Democrats under current trends. I think it is entirely possible that NPAs are split more like 52D/48R in early voting which would mean very little pickup for the Democrats in the NPA vote. I also think Republican voters could exceed 60% on election day and if turnout is closer to 2 million then that gap blows wide open.

The key here is getting that D/R early voting spread under 100k. I have a feeling it'll be around 125K end of today. If Republicans over perform from now until Sunday evening then it's possible for it to be near zero on election day.
Not all precincts are open Sunday but there are some very red counties open (as well as blue although the trending in a lot of blue counties is down for Dems). Hopefully the weather abates.

I'm really interested to see Polk at the end of the day and how much of a bump it provides. I have a feeling today will be a very heavy voting today (a lot of folks will be doing Halloween prep tomorrow).
aggiehawg
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SwigAg11 said:

aggiehawg said:

SLAM said:

bmks270 said:

akm91 said:

Holy cow! Jumped from +13 to +48?

Cubans recognize communists when they see them.

Is there any other demographic that leans R +48 ?

This is a demographic that I think republicans can keep even after Trump is gone from politics. The Democrats aren't getting any less radical.


Maybe Mormons and the Amish are that conservative.
Only one percent of Amish/Mennonite voters are registered as Democrats.


Have I read correctly that the Trump campaign has been targeting the Amish/Mennonite communities to register since 2016? Do we have an idea on how many new registrations have been added in these groups since 2016?

I'm assuming that these are groups that no polls would be able to capture.
Yes there's a PAC that was formed in 2016 by a former Ben Carson campaign staffer. They have been working to get Amish and Mennonites to register and vote since then. They were able to get them to vote in 2016 and expect to greatly increase those numbers in 2020.

As to precise numbers, I haven't seen those.

There were even Amish for Trump parades this year. That amount of micro targeting by the Trump ground game impressed me.
Gigemags382
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I wasn't able to check for the last 1hr 20 min. It looks like R's gained 8000 in that time, or 2000/20min. Yesterday the pace was closer to 1000-1500/20 min.
Prosperdick
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Gigemags382 said:

I wasn't able to check for the last 1hr 20 min. It looks like R's gained 8000 in that time, or 2000/20min. Yesterday the pace was closer to 1000-1500/20 min.
Like I said earlier, I think today will be a heavy in person voting day and the Polk bump at the end of the day could be a nice surprise.
Gigemags382
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Prosperdick said:

Gigemags382 said:

I wasn't able to check for the last 1hr 20 min. It looks like R's gained 8000 in that time, or 2000/20min. Yesterday the pace was closer to 1000-1500/20 min.
Like I said earlier, I think today will be a heavy in person voting day and the Polk bump at the end of the day could be a nice surprise.

Good call. Refreshed again and another +1900 for R's in 20 min. Fantastic pace today.
Prosperdick
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Even at the incredible pace I'm not sure the target will be hit today but there's an outside shot. I think the target will be hit tomorrow and Sunday could be pile on.
Expert Witness
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I'd love to see it dead even come ED.
Gigemags382
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TargetSmart seems to be a couple days behind as they're showing 7.2m votes but the github site is showing 7.9m votes.

But what's interesting is TargetSmart is showing a 220k advantage for D's based on registered party (which is in line with what was on the github site a couple days ago), but based on modeled party D's only have a 17k advantage. And that's without the last 2 days which have been great for R's. Apparently TargetSmart which is a leftist site is modeling the Florida unaffiliated voters as fairly heavily favoring R.
Gyles Marrett
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Gigemags382 said:

TargetSmart seems to be a couple days behind as they're showing 7.2m votes but the github site is showing 7.9m votes.

But what's interesting is TargetSmart is showing a 220k advantage for D's based on registered party (which is in line with what was on the github site a couple days ago), but based on modeled party D's only have a 17k advantage. And that's without the last 2 days which have been great for R's. Apparently TargetSmart which is a leftist site is modeling the Florida unaffiliated voters as fairly heavily favoring R.
This is what makes me so confident not just in Florida but in other states. I like being conservative and assuming straight party loyalty but there will be a big I vote and a good percentage crossover D vote. The midwest was won in 2016 with crossover Democrats who had their eyes opened.
aTm2004
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Love him or hate him, Trump is working for all Americans.





Gigemags382
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Gyles Marrett said:

Gigemags382 said:

TargetSmart seems to be a couple days behind as they're showing 7.2m votes but the github site is showing 7.9m votes.

But what's interesting is TargetSmart is showing a 220k advantage for D's based on registered party (which is in line with what was on the github site a couple days ago), but based on modeled party D's only have a 17k advantage. And that's without the last 2 days which have been great for R's. Apparently TargetSmart which is a leftist site is modeling the Florida unaffiliated voters as fairly heavily favoring R.
This is what makes me so confident not just in Florida but in other states. I like being conservative and assuming straight party loyalty but there will be a big I vote and a good percentage crossover D vote. The midwest was won in 2016 with crossover Democrats who had their eyes opened.


Yup, and some more details on FL from TargetSmart comparing Registered Party and Modeled Party:

Registered Party
D 2,941,301
R 2,719,810
O+U 1,554,516

Modeled Party
D 3,367,655
R 3,350,302
U 497,670

This means that the Modeled Party moves a total of 1,056,846 votes out of O+U and splits gives 426,354 to D and 630,492 to R. That's a 60/40 split of Florida unaffiliated voters in favor of R, and this is before an additional 80k R gain in the last couple days.
astros4545
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+6,200 past hour

much better pace today than previous 3 days
Gigemags382
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Is it new on the TargetSmart site that they now allow you to select the 2016 results as of: 1) Days out from election; 2) Final early/mail; or 3) Final election? I don't remember seeing this until today and it's extremely insightful. I know we're in the FL thread, but this is the Modeled Party for NC:

2016 final election
D 2,448,900 (50.4%)
R 2,166,308 (44.6%)
U 246,053 (5.1%)

2020
D 1,823,212 (48.0%)
R 1,732,275 (45.6%)
U 243,165 (6.4%)

Yet Trump won 2016:
T 2,362,631 (49.8%)
C 2,189,316 (46.2%)
O 189,617 (4.0%)

I haven't found TargetSmart all that helpful because you could just compare their modeling of this year's EV party to last year's EV party. But now you can compare the modeled party of last election's final vote to the modeled party for this year's EV, and then separately compare that to last election's actual candidate final votes.

This indicates a landslide for Trump in NC, as the R gap in modeled party in this year's EV is only 2.4% compared to 5.8% gap in modeled party for the 2016 final election, yet Trump won by 3%.
JB99
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I've seen enough. Florida is definitely Trump
Keegan99
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The Florida GOP is a machine.

They're in a dogfight every time and, as long as the Dems don't the magic of Obama, the FL-GOP wins far more than they lose.
ElKabong
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'We've got to stop the bleeding': Democrats sound alarm in Miami

MIAMI Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida's biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden's chances in the nation's biggest swing state.

No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins here to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.

Wilson and other Democrats aren't panicking yet. They take comfort in the fact that huge swaths of Democratic voters cast absentee ballots by mail statewide, and that Biden narrowly leads in most Florida polls, including a Monmouth University likely voter survey released Thursday that put the former vice president up by 6 percentage points. That margin is far bigger than in Democratic internal polls.

Party officials also point out that Black churches are planning "Souls to the Polls" events Sunday that encourage voting after church. However, in the era of coronavirus, church services are virtual and organizing those events is more difficult than in the past election years.

To date, Republicans have turned out 59 percent of their voters in Miami-Dade and Democrats have turned out 53 percent, a 6-point margin. That's twice the margin Republicans had at this point in 2016.

Among Hispanic voters, who make up nearly 70 percent of the county's population, the deficit is even bigger 9 points.

"Democrats have a big turnout issue in the Hispanic community in Miami-Dade," said Florida-based Democratic data analyst Matt Isbell. "Hispanic Democrat turnout is only 48% while the Republican Hispanics are at 57%. This large of a gap doesn't exist in Broward or Orange. It is a Miami problem."

One veteran Democratic organizer from South Florida expressed concern that winning Florida looks more difficult by the day as Republicans turn out in big numbers and the pace of Democratic momentum in casting early ballots slows. It's a sign the party is exhausting its high propensity voters and the hard-to-motivate voters are tough to turn out.

"Look, our people hate Trump and they like Biden. But not enough of them love Biden," the organizer said. "It also doesn't help that the campaign reacted so late here and they didn't help us with voter registration when we needed to be doing it."
aginresearch
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They are indeed. TX GOP needs to take a lot of lessons from them. There are some differences but boy do they know how to get the vote out.
aginresearch
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They've hit the panic button even though they claim they haven't. All early voting metrics look bad for the Democrats. Not just in Florida but around the nation and it's only going to get worse not better.
Gyles Marrett
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about the hit the 500K IPEV advantage for R's! Gap under 139K now....
 
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