Is there something in the Texas polling trying to model the Beto-mania? Polls in Texas shouldn't be going toward Biden after last week's debate.

Keep in mind that is just in-person voting. The combined lead for Democrats in Palm Beach County with In-person plus mail-in voting is 104,000 votes currently.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Keep in mind that is just in-person voting. The combined lead for Democrats in Palm Beach County with In-person plus mail-in voting is 104,000 votes currently.

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Still low.

Gyles Marrett said:

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JBAggie00 said:

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Is there something in the Texas polling trying to model the Beto-mania? Polls in Texas shouldn't be going toward Biden after last week's debate.

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There's not an honest person alive who thinks Texas will go blue. They're lying to you if they say so.

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I agree. Trump wins by double digits. If these polls had any accuracy, they would show the gap widening.

Yes, it is looking good if the current trends continue! Miami-Dade is looking especially great. Especially since a not insignificant percentage of the Hispanic vote for Trump there are registered Democrats.

Florida is going to be a Trump landslide.

Palm beach votes 2016:
Clinton votes +102,000

Palm beach votes 7 days before Election Day 2020:
Biden + 103,000

Trump will blow past 2016 palm beach results before Election Day. He might win it come Election Day.

It's already reached the 2016 D-R vote delta and thats with more dems mailing ballots and reps waiting until Election Day.

I read on another thread that a pro-Biden PAC is pulling out of Florida. Any truth to this?

It is important to note that the Democrats still have a lead of ~317k ballots in early voting from registered democrats. It will need to be around 140k by election day for Republicans to win Florida. Still need to knock off another ~175k. However, if Republicans pickup +50k a day for the rest of this week then that deficit would be almost wiped out.

aginresearch said:

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It is important to note that the Democrats still have a lead of ~317k ballots in early voting from registered democrats. It will need to be around 140k by election day for Republicans to win Florida. Still need to knock off another ~175k. However, if Republicans pickup +50k a day for the rest of this week then that deficit would be almost wiped out.

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Stats showing 200,000 republican super voters still in reserve compared to 2016.

Palm beach county has already reached the 2016 margin of victory with a week to go.

The 320k will be easily surpassed.

Moxley said:

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I read on another thread that a pro-Biden PAC is pulling out of Florida. Any truth to this?

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Yes...

"With his opponents defending their must-win state, Schale pointed out that Biden on Saturday was campaigning in Pennsylvania and his running mate, Kamala Harris, was in Ohio, both battlegrounds Trump won.

"Of course, I want to win Florida. But you can see where I spent my money," Schale said via text message, referring to the PAC's spending in the Upper Midwest. "I want Joe Biden to be president. If forcing them to go all in here means we lose FL and win the White House, you know how much that's going to bother me?""

aginresearch said:

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It is important to note that the Democrats still have a lead of ~317k ballots in early voting from registered democrats. It will need to be around 140k by election day for Republicans to win Florida. Still need to knock off another ~175k. However, if Republicans pickup +50k a day for the rest of this week then that deficit would be almost wiped out.

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It only needs to be around 140k if we assume Democrats will have the same Election Day turnout they had in 2016. We know that's most likely not going to be even close as many of their Election Day voters in 2016 are mailing it in in 2020.

JB99 said:

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aginresearch said:

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It is important to note that the Democrats still have a lead of ~317k ballots in early voting from registered democrats. It will need to be around 140k by election day for Republicans to win Florida. Still need to knock off another ~175k. However, if Republicans pickup +50k a day for the rest of this week then that deficit would be almost wiped out.

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It only needs to be around 140k if we assume Democrats will have the same Election Day turnout they had in 2016. We know that's most likely not going to be even close as many of their Election Day voters in 2016 are mailing it in in 2020.

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This.

According to https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ they are -91509 supervoters (those who have voted in the last 4 elections). This means they are cannibalizing their ED voters so that 140k lead can be greater since here will be reduced ED dem voters

I agree that election day will be very republican not only in Florida but across the nation. However, it would be very good to get near that 140k mark prior to election day. That would leave very little doubt about what will happen in Florida. All of the 200k remaining early voting super voters need to vote prior to election day. If they do then it might be a very comfortable margin on Tuesday for Trump.

So just doing some back of the napkin math on where we are in Florida right now with registered voters voting. Today we have roughly ~6.4 million early ballots cast. In 2016 there were ~9.6 million total ballots cast. Let's further assume that this years total ballots cast will be roughly the same as 2016. If you assume this year that 80% of all ballots will be cast early that leaves roughly ~1.2 million to be cast between now and election day next week for a total of ~7.6 million early ballots. Let's also assume that NPA voters will split 50-50 between the two candidates and that registered voters are 100% assigned to the party of their registration. That would seem to leave ~1.9 million votes to be cast on election day 2020. Compare that to 2016 where ~3.0 million were cast on election day.

With all of these priors assumed lets turn to projected turnout among republicans and democrats on election day. I'll use the poll cited at https://joeisdone.github.io, this shows that 20% of NPA voters, 22% of democrats and 54% of republicans will vote on election day. When you run the numbers you find that 62% of election day voters will be republican voters. Leaving roughly 30% as democrat and 8% as NPA. We assume that 1.9 million votes will be cast on election day. That means ~1.18 million votes will be republican registered voters and ~614k will be democrats. That produces an election day gap of +~537k for republican registered voters. Currently the democrats have a +~301k early voting gap.

Furthermore, republicans seem to be gaining a minimum of +25k votes a day on the democrats with in person early voting. With 6 days remaining it would appear that the republicans could cut the current 301k gap to around 175k by election day.

This simple analysis would indicate that republicans, if they turn out in person and on election day as expected, could very well be on their way to winning Florida. However, a number of assumptions could easily swing this election to the democrats. First how are NPAs actually breaking? If they break in large numbers to the democrats then numbers will change substantially. Will republicans actually show up on election day? If they don't and election day numbers are closer to 50-50 then the democrats will be in much better shape.

aginresearch said:

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So just doing some back of the napkin math on where we are in Florida right now with registered voters voting. Today we have roughly ~6.4 million early ballots cast. In 2016 there were ~9.6 million total ballots cast. Let's further assume that this years total ballots cast will be roughly the same as 2016. If you assume this year that 80% of all ballots will be cast early that leaves roughly ~1.2 million to be cast between now and election day next week for a total of ~7.6 million early ballots. Let's also assume that NPA voters will split 50-50 between the two candidates and that registered voters are 100% assigned to the party of their registration. That would seem to leave ~1.9 million votes to be cast on election day 2020. Compare that to 2016 where ~3.0 million were cast on election day.

With all of these priors assumed lets turn to projected turnout among republicans and democrats on election day. I'll use the poll cited at https://joeisdone.github.io, this shows that 20% of NPA voters, 22% of democrats and 54% of republicans will vote on election day. When you run the numbers you find that 62% of election day voters will be republican voters. Leaving roughly 30% as democrat and 8% as NPA. We assume that 1.9 million votes will be cast on election day. That means ~1.18 million votes will be republican registered voters and ~614k will be democrats. That produces an election day gap of +~537k for republican registered voters. Currently the democrats have a +~301k early voting gap.

Furthermore, republicans seem to be gaining a minimum of +25k votes a day on the democrats with in person early voting. With 6 days remaining it would appear that the republicans could cut the current 301k gap to around 175k by election day.

This simple analysis would indicate that republicans, if they turn out in person and on election day as expected, could very well be on their way to winning Florida. However, a number of assumptions could easily swing this election to the democrats. First how are NPAs actually breaking? If they break in large numbers to the democrats then numbers will change substantially. Will republicans actually show up on election day? If they don't and election day numbers are closer to 50-50 then the democrats will be in much better shape.

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Good analysis. I think Florida hits 10M ballots this year. I also think crossover votes (D to R, R to D) favors R by 1%, and NPA votes will favor R by 5%, which obviously further helps R's.

Obviously just spitballing, and those assumptions could be wrong, but Florida seems to be the "safest" of the "Battleground States" behind Ohio.

Texas is not a battleground state.

aginresearch said:

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So just doing some back of the napkin math on where we are in Florida right now with registered voters voting. Today we have roughly ~6.4 million early ballots cast. In 2016 there were ~9.6 million total ballots cast. Let's further assume that this years total ballots cast will be roughly the same as 2016. If you assume this year that 80% of all ballots will be cast early that leaves roughly ~1.2 million to be cast between now and election day next week for a total of ~7.6 million early ballots. Let's also assume that NPA voters will split 50-50 between the two candidates and that registered voters are 100% assigned to the party of their registration. That would seem to leave ~1.9 million votes to be cast on election day 2020. Compare that to 2016 where ~3.0 million were cast on election day.

With all of these priors assumed lets turn to projected turnout among republicans and democrats on election day. I'll use the poll cited at https://joeisdone.github.io, this shows that 20% of NPA voters, 22% of democrats and 54% of republicans will vote on election day. When you run the numbers you find that 62% of election day voters will be republican voters. Leaving roughly 30% as democrat and 8% as NPA. We assume that 1.9 million votes will be cast on election day. That means ~1.18 million votes will be republican registered voters and ~614k will be democrats. That produces an election day gap of +~537k for republican registered voters. Currently the democrats have a +~301k early voting gap.

Furthermore, republicans seem to be gaining a minimum of +25k votes a day on the democrats with in person early voting. With 6 days remaining it would appear that the republicans could cut the current 301k gap to around 175k by election day.

This simple analysis would indicate that republicans, if they turn out in person and on election day as expected, could very well be on their way to winning Florida. However, a number of assumptions could easily swing this election to the democrats. First how are NPAs actually breaking? If they break in large numbers to the democrats then numbers will change substantially. Will republicans actually show up on election day? If they don't and election day numbers are closer to 50-50 then the democrats will be in much better shape.

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This is still in line with my analysis a few days ago posted here.

If we take the total votes left to reach the 2016 turnout, Republicans need to win it by +10.
(3.2 million * .10 = 320k)

Republicans are leading in person voting by +12 right now and I think it is safe to assume they will win Election Day by +20 or more. Democrats still have some mail in votes and in person votes coming in, but I only foresee Republican gains from here.

Gyles Marrett said:

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JBAggie00 said:

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Is there something in the Texas polling trying to model the Beto-mania? Polls in Texas shouldn't be going toward Biden after last week's debate.

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There's not an honest person alive who thinks Texas will go blue. They're lying to you if they say so.

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When I see my first Biden ad, I'll believe they think they have a chance. Just being honest about it.

Gyles Marrett said:

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Florida is a done deal. Put it in the red column. Election night is going to be absolutely epic when the lamestream media see's Florida go Trump. Panic, disbelief, anger, claims of cheating. We'll witness all of the above and this will be fairly early in the night.

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If this happens it will be glorious and my Chad will not be hanging it will be standing at full staff !!!

If the sunshine pumping coming from Florida is true, then FL would have to be an amazingly improbable outlier for the national results to fall too far from the FL results.

Just an Ag said:

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If the sunshine pumping coming from Florida is true, then FL would have to be an amazingly improbable outlier for the national results to fall too far from the FL results.

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I saw an analysis from some data folks on Twitter that shows that PA and NC typically align with FL in voting and shifts in either direction for elections (this was like eight elections worth of analysis).

Pretty informative, and it showed those three states have been lock step for a while in political favorites.

AgOutsideAustin said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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Florida is a done deal. Put it in the red column. Election night is going to be absolutely epic when the lamestream media see's Florida go Trump. Panic, disbelief, anger, claims of cheating. We'll witness all of the above and this will be fairly early in the night.

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If this happens it will be glorious and my Chad will not be hanging it will be standing at full staff !!!

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Is Chad a family name you gave your tackle?

Florida ? Hanging Chad ? Come on man !!

You must be a younger fella.

AgOutsideAustin said:

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Florida ? Hanging Chad ? Come on man !!

You must be a younger fella.

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I like to think of myself as younger. However, younger people do not think that of me

I 100% got your joke. The memories of idiots staring at holes punched in paper with magnifying glasses I have not forgotten...

Is it known which way the No party affiliated voters broke in 2016? It's currently ~20% of the early votes. I would assume Trump will do as good or better with that group than he did in 2016. Just haven't been able to find how they voted last go around.

Gyles Marrett said:

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Is it known which way the No party affiliated voters broke in 2016? It's currently ~20% of the early votes. I would assume Trump will do as good or better with that group than he did in 2016. Just haven't been able to find how they voted last go around.

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I would argue look at the Johnson/McMullin, Stein vote and work back. With Johnson not on the ticket I think most of his votes gravitate to Trump. And that's a sizeable percentage of votes in New Mexico, Arizona.

Gyles Marrett said:

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Is it known which way the No party affiliated voters broke in 2016? It's currently ~20% of the early votes. I would assume Trump will do as good or better with that group than he did in 2016. Just haven't been able to find how they voted last go around.

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Exit poll data shows R+5 for the independents

Interesting that Trump got 8% of D vote and Clinton got 8% of R vote.

2016 FL Election by Party Affiliation

Thanks. If anything I wouldn't think those number would shift against Trump. Either stay the same or have a slight positive tick towards him.

AG 2000' said:

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Just an Ag said:

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If the sunshine pumping coming from Florida is true, then FL would have to be an amazingly improbable outlier for the national results to fall too far from the FL results.

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I saw an analysis from some data folks on Twitter that shows that PA and NC typically align with FL in voting and shifts in either direction for elections (this was like eight elections worth of analysis).

Pretty informative, and it showed those three states have been lock step for a while in political favorites.

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That's what they refer to when they are talking about "bellweather" states. When one state swings a certain way, other similar states tend to follow.

For example, 538's election modeling site only has Trump with a small chance of winning, but they don't have him winning Texas, Florida, or NC just yet (they keep states they consider to be "toss ups" off the map and let you play around with it).

If you add those as wins, suddenly their model has him with a better chance of winning the EC than Creepy Joe due to swing states following the FL and NC trend. He goes from 12/100 odds to 50/100 odds.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/