Florida Early Voting

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Just an Ag
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11:32a, 10/23/20
AG
The downside to an early election night call on Florida is that it probably makes the MSNBC meltdown a little less dramatic later in the evening.
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FbgTxAg
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In reply to Just an Ag • 11:39a, 10/23/20
AG
Just an Ag said:
The downside to an early election night call on Florida is that it probably makes the MSNBC meltdown a little less dramatic later in the evening.


Wait till Michigan and Minnesota are called that night.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
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clw04
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:42a, 10/23/20
AG
2021NCAggies said:
If you go by Target Smart early voting.

States that look good for Trump: Florida, NC, Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin (barely), Minnesota (barely), Nevada and New Mexico

States that look bad: Pennsylvania (real bad), Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan. All of these look real bad for Trump, minus Michigan which is trending DEM +3%

Granted most of the votes for Dems is in Philly and Allegheny for Pennsylvania. Detroit (Wayne) for Michigan. Atlanta For Georgia
Target Smart is only reporting Mail-In Ballots. Its pretty widely known that most Trump voters will do in person voting (early or election day)
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Prosperdick
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11:44a, 10/23/20
AG
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Keegan99
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11:46a, 10/23/20
AG
Georgia is very, very unlikely to flip.

Again, look at the midterms.

If the Dems couldn't get the Governorship there in 2018 with Abrams at the top of the ticket to energize black turnout, little chance they can do so against Trump, especially since Biden will not do as well with black voters as Abrams.
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Just an Ag
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11:51a, 10/23/20
AG
Late evening preview of MSNBC election coverage.... "Minnesota! If we can just hang on to Minnesota!"
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akm91
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In reply to Just an Ag • 12:27p, 10/23/20
AG
Just an Ag said:
The downside to an early election night call on Florida is that it probably makes the MSNBC meltdown a little less dramatic later in the evening.
But it makes their suffering much much longer. I'm good with that!
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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akm91
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12:27p, 10/23/20
AG
Wow, D's total EV advantage is down to about 400K.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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EKUAg
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In reply to akm91 • 1:28p, 10/23/20
AG
akm91 said:
Wow, D's total EV advantage is down to about 400K.


Just went under. 397k
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to clw04 • 1:35p, 10/23/20
clw04 said:
2021NCAggies said:
If you go by Target Smart early voting.

States that look good for Trump: Florida, NC, Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin (barely), Minnesota (barely), Nevada and New Mexico

States that look bad: Pennsylvania (real bad), Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan. All of these look real bad for Trump, minus Michigan which is trending DEM +3%

Granted most of the votes for Dems is in Philly and Allegheny for Pennsylvania. Detroit (Wayne) for Michigan. Atlanta For Georgia
Target Smart is only reporting Mail-In Ballots. Its pretty widely known that most Trump voters will do in person voting (early or election day)
No, they are calculating everything, not just mail ins
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to EKUAg • 1:41p, 10/23/20
EKUAg said:
akm91 said:
Wow, D's total EV advantage is down to about 400K.


Just went under. 397k
Target Smart as of this morning had it 2,107,622 Dem to 1,813,713 Rep

That is 294k Dem advantage, which looks really bad for them

IDK where yall are getting your info
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EKUAg
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1:42p, 10/23/20
AG
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
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Prosperdick
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1:43p, 10/23/20
AG
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 1:45p, 10/23/20
2021NCAggies said:
clw04 said:
2021NCAggies said:
If you go by Target Smart early voting.

States that look good for Trump: Florida, NC, Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin (barely), Minnesota (barely), Nevada and New Mexico

States that look bad: Pennsylvania (real bad), Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan. All of these look real bad for Trump, minus Michigan which is trending DEM +3%

Granted most of the votes for Dems is in Philly and Allegheny for Pennsylvania. Detroit (Wayne) for Michigan. Atlanta For Georgia
Target Smart is only reporting Mail-In Ballots. Its pretty widely known that most Trump voters will do in person voting (early or election day)
No, they are calculating everything, not just mail ins
What is not being factored in is there will be a higher percentage of D's the vote Trump than the percentage or R's that vote Biden. You can all but guarantee that it skews a few points more to Trump when just basing off rollcall of registered party votes.
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aginlakeway
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1:46p, 10/23/20
AG
This is VERY good news for Trump. Correct?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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EKUAg
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1:47p, 10/23/20
AG
Correct. At the moment you can only see D registration EV vs R registered EV vs unaffiliated EV
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akm91
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In reply to aginlakeway • 1:49p, 10/23/20
AG
If Schweikart's model predicting 637K advantage that D's need to overcome IPV on election day, then it is very good news. The gap has been narrowing instead of increasing.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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vette
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1:49p, 10/23/20
AG
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5544/Which-party-will-win-Florida-in-the-2020-presidential-election

The betting markets are noticing this trend as well
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Gyles Marrett
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1:52p, 10/23/20
Trump event in the Villages here shortly today and I believe another rally in FL tonight. Election night is going to start with Trump kicking the MF'ing door off in FL leaving CNN and MSNBC wetting their studio chairs for the following several hours. You can only imagine the commercial break meltdowns that will be going on off camera
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 1:54p, 10/23/20
AG
Gyles Marrett said:
Trump event in the Villages here shortly today and I believe another rally in FL tonight. Election night is going to start with Trump kicking the MF'ing door off in FL leaving CNN and MSNBC wetting their studio chairs for the following several hours. You can only imagine the commercial break meltdowns that will be going on off camera
Yep.

Trump has 2 events in Florida today.

Tomorrow: Lumberton, NC, Circleville, OH and Waukesha, WI.

Sunday: Manchester, NH.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to aginlakeway • 1:56p, 10/23/20
aginlakeway said:
Gyles Marrett said:
Trump event in the Villages here shortly today and I believe another rally in FL tonight. Election night is going to start with Trump kicking the MF'ing door off in FL leaving CNN and MSNBC wetting their studio chairs for the following several hours. You can only imagine the commercial break meltdowns that will be going on off camera
Yep.

Trump has 2 events in Florida today.

Tomorrow: Lumberton, NC, Circleville, OH and Waukesha, WI.

Sunday: Manchester, NH.
Saw someone earlier question why Joe was having an event near his home in Delaware when he has Delaware locked up by 25+ points. I don't think it's covid fears like many have assumed. I think they actually do know they're beat, that the polls are full of it, and its just not worth the time.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 1:57p, 10/23/20
AG
Gyles Marrett said:
aginlakeway said:
Gyles Marrett said:
Trump event in the Villages here shortly today and I believe another rally in FL tonight. Election night is going to start with Trump kicking the MF'ing door off in FL leaving CNN and MSNBC wetting their studio chairs for the following several hours. You can only imagine the commercial break meltdowns that will be going on off camera
Yep.

Trump has 2 events in Florida today.

Tomorrow: Lumberton, NC, Circleville, OH and Waukesha, WI.

Sunday: Manchester, NH.
Saw someone earlier question why Joe was having an event near his home in Delaware when he has Delaware locked up by 25+ points. I don't think it's covid fears like many have assumed. I think they actually do know they're beat, that the polls are full of it, and its just not worth the time.

Biden's ONLY other currently scheduled weekend event is tomorrow in PA.

Trump is outworking him big time ... of course.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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Keegan99
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 1:58p, 10/23/20
AG
For Joe it's less about actually being somewhere but getting his talking points and sound bytes out to his functionaries in the press for favorable editing and free dissemination.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Keegan99 • 2:00p, 10/23/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
For Joe it's less about actually being somewhere but getting his talking points and sound bytes out to his functionaries in the press for favorable editing and free dissemination.

Understand. But people like to see the candidate. Trump's events solidify his base in that area, and maybe get some other voters on board. I doubt a day will go by between now and election day on which Trump isn't at a massive rally, or 2 or 3.

It'll be interested to see where Biden goes next week.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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2023NCAggies
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2:06p, 10/23/20
Has Biden cancelled his Firework show yet?
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 2:07p, 10/23/20
2021NCAggies said:
Has Biden cancelled his Firework show yet?
He can't have fire works....might set his pace maker off and also a PTSD episode by Hunter from crack binges
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Keegan99
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In reply to aginlakeway • 2:19p, 10/23/20
AG
I agree. If Ronna's tweets are correct, Trump is gaining 5k+ new voters with every rally, and potentially flipping plenty of others. The energy is infectious. That's significant.
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Faustus
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2:31p, 10/23/20
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/376764-poll-joe-biden-builds-19-point-lead-over-donald-trump-among-floridas-early-voters

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/florida_trump_49_biden_46

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2020/10/21/trump-and-floridas-i-4-corridor-can-you-trust-polls-with-crowds-like-this/

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/22/florida-early-voting-turnout-numbers-compare-2020-general-election-map/3728084001/

Just some other recent links (some good some bad depending on your political POV) on Florida's early voting, polling, and prognosis.
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aggie appraiser
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5:02p, 10/23/20
Trump just wrapped up a speech in The Villages. Crowd was pumped.
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Prosperdick
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5:15p, 10/23/20
AG
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Readzilla
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5:28p, 10/23/20
AG
With Larry's tweets about rising R EVs making the dems need a higher margin by ED. What's the reasoning behind this? Wouldn't more R EV mean less ED votes? Or is he assuming a higher turnout/d crossover?
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Not a Bot
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In reply to Readzilla • 5:34p, 10/23/20
AG
There's a certain assumption that GOP voters will widely outnumber Democrat voters in Florida on election day. How big that gap will be is unknown, but if I'm not mistaken he's estimating the Democrats will need about a 700,000 vote lead by election day to maintain a legitimate chance of winning. I'm not sure how he is arriving at that figure. I assume he's baked in some cannibalism in terms of GOP early voting instead of election day voting.
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Keegan99
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In reply to Readzilla • 5:34p, 10/23/20
AG
That's the cannibalization theory. It's possible but built into the models.

GOP wins on election day.
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black_ice
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In reply to Keegan99 • 5:35p, 10/23/20
Yep. Betting sites moving favorably to trump.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Keegan99 • 5:42p, 10/23/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
That's the cannibalization theory. It's possible but built into the models.

GOP wins on election day.

It's built into the models but don't forget, it cuts both ways. High D VBM and EV means even less on ED.
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