Florida Early Voting
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Last: 4 yr ago by Maacus
Think he's using data that's available: Florida EV Data
IPEV is now R+98.7K
EV (total) is now D+455.6K
IPEV is now R+98.7K
EV (total) is now D+455.6K
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
I've been following Larry for a few years now and he's up front with his methodology, which is mainly going by voter registration numbers than actual polling data.Dumb_Loggy said:Prosperdick said:
Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?
He nailed 2016 but was off in 2018 regarding the House races but nailed 4 of the 5 most contested Senate races but here's the refreshing part, he openly admits he was wrong with the House prediction. He doesn't pull some revisionist history and change his predictions at the 11th hour. I think he also has access to some insider data but he doesn't really rely on polls.
Here's the thing to remember, he's assuming a registered R votes R and a registered D votes D and obviously that can change. Never Trumpers can vote D and a lot of blue dog Dems can vote R.
There's also the wildcard of how many people Trump's team has been able to register over the last 4 years (mainly in '16, '18, and of course '20). There are millions of disenfranchised voters that his team has targeted while Biden relies on BLM money to buy internet and TV ads.
AG 2000' said:He was a polling analyst for Team Trump in 2016, and still has connections to the campaign. Lots of experience with politics, polling, and campaigns.Dumb_Loggy said:Prosperdick said:
Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?
He's also a history professor. Or used to be anyway.
He's most famous for writing a book called A Patriot's Guide to the History of the United States.
Written specifically as a counter to Zinn's progressive hatchet job of a "history book".
He's been a popular figure within the conservative think tank and punditry class. I think he's probably done one or multiple videos on US history for the Prager U series of videos that Dennis Prager does.
Identifying and registering disaffected voters (those who stop voting because they are largely outnumbered) is the process the Trump campaign used to flip Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.Quote:
There's also the wildcard of how many people Trump's team has been able to register over the last 4 years (mainly in '16, '18, and of course '20). There are millions of disenfranchised voters that his team has targeted while Biden relies on BLM money to buy internet and TV ads.
Biden has no such ground game.
aggiehawg said:
A less than 2% point lead for Biden in Miami-Dade is huge.
Hillary won by 63% to Trump's 33%.
Yeah, that number is eye popping. If that holds anywhere close, it will be impossible for Biden to win Florida. Outside of Broward it's the Dems strongest county in Florida that delivers them the most votes in the entire state. If they don't get over 60% of the votes there they can't win Florida. No way.
A lot of Cubans know what the loony left is about and don't want that here.2021NCAggies said:
Think he said Miami Dade is only +4% for Dems right now.
That is horrible news for Dems
2016policywonk98 said:aggiehawg said:
A less than 2% point lead for Biden in Miami-Dade is huge.
Hillary won by 63% to Trump's 33%.
Yeah, that number is eye popping. If that holds anywhere close, it will be impossible for Biden to win Florida. Outside of Broward it's the Dems strongest county in Florida that delivers them the most votes in the entire state. If they don't get over 60% of the votes there they can't win Florida. No way.
Miami-Dade: D+290K
Broward: D+290K
If it ends up D+2% then it would only be about 20K vote advantage, assuming same turnout as 2016. That's a huge swing!
Ok my mistake - the 2% is only for IPEV, not total EV. Total EV is still on trend with 2016. Too early to get excited about Miami-Dade
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
Target Smart shows a 492K dem advantage in early voting, up 7K from yesterday. Not sure I'm following the excitement.
I'm not doom and gloom, but this looks like it's still on track to be very close.
I'm not doom and gloom, but this looks like it's still on track to be very close.
Cheetah01 said:
Target Smart shows a 492K dem advantage in early voting, up 7K from yesterday. Not sure I'm following the excitement.
I'm not doom and gloom, but this looks like it's still on track to be very close.
They need to get to over 750K in order to have ANY chance at all on ED and the panhandle and other conservative precincts are just now opening up for early voting so you can expect that 492K number to continue to drop.
Once ED arrives and the Dems don't have a lead in the 750K range they are toast.
There are 2 things to track, vote by mail and in person early voting. In person early voting, Republicans are doing well and vote by mail, it looks like Dems are underperforming ballot returns.
Why do R's tend to vote way more than D's in person on ED?
Saw a screen shot of what looked a tweet the other day that I could not verify so I didn't post it. But the gist of it was that a helicopter did a count of vehicles in a recent Trump parade in Miami and reportedly the final tally was 75,000 vehicles. The number was so high and I couldn't find the original tweet (maybe Twitter tricks?) that I couldn't really believe it.
But now it might just have been legit?
But now it might just have been legit?
Ft.Worth_Ag said:
Why do R's tend to vote way more than D's in person on ED?
Rs are more traditional by nature.
Civic duty is to show up in your community on a designated date at a designated polling place to perform this traditional civic duty. Doing it within your specific precinct further solidifies a sense of community among those that you live closest to at this moment in time in your life. Giving a face and thus humanity to all of us, no matter whom we vote for.
From what I've read on here, there are many business that give employees time off to vote on Election Day, but not on EV days. That could definitely be a factor.Ft.Worth_Ag said:
Why do R's tend to vote way more than D's in person on ED?
Seems risky to me ..... long lines, flat tire after work, kid gets sick ETC. vote early!policywonk98 said:Ft.Worth_Ag said:
Why do R's tend to vote way more than D's in person on ED?
Rs are more traditional by nature.
Civic duty is to show up in your community on a designated date at a designated polling place to perform this traditional civic duty. Doing it within your specific precinct further solidifies a sense of community among those that you live closest to at this moment in time in your life. Giving a face and thus humanity to all of us, no matter whom we vote for.
Voted on election day every election and primary. Have made it to every one. None of those things mentioned above would stop me from voting on election day
Quote:
1) Little indicators everywhere of an R landslide brewing, really everywhere but the House races;
2) In two weeks, John James, the Martian Manhunter has gone from -1 to +2 in MI. Likewise, Trafalgar now has Trump up in MI.
3) Suddenly Tina Smith in MN is in a fight.
4) Now we have a story about D donors in AUSTIN flooding R candidates cuz they are terrified of the homelessness situation turning Austin into South Portland.
5) FL Rs now utterly blowing it out in early voting, crushing any D hopes there. This will now be Trump +2 at least.
6) At this rate, you have to wonder about those FL House races that are close.
7) Trump now at 52% on the unpredictable Ras poll.
8) Ds behind where they need to be in NC; black turnout down, and falling.
9) Suddenly people are starting to realize that the "Yut" vote won't be there on election day, but that the 18-24 year olds have been WAY down in early voting when they needed to be UP by at least 30%.
10) No national outlets will even discuss this, but now between the "Yut" shortfall and the black shortfall you have Demented Perv Biteme at under 60m voters.
And falling.
11) In NV, both the numbers in Washoe AND Clark are looking very good for Rs. Hearing from a Trump lawyer on the ground that they are increasingly thinking, "Hey, we can win this."
12) Rs are barely down in . . . NEW MEXICO.
13) Personally, I'd like to see MI, WI, MN, and NV with such a dominant Trump lead they are called early then PA won't matter at all. Thus it too will be called.
14) It's entirely possible, if McSally hangs on, and Smith loses, that we could EXPAND our senate lead by a seat.
15) And folks, ALL THIS is taking place with even the best pollsters admitting they still aren't quite getting the "shy Trump voter." Could be 2 points, they say.
StoneCold99 said:From what I've read on here, there are many business that give employees time off to vote on Election Day, but not on EV days. That could definitely be a factor.Ft.Worth_Ag said:
Why do R's tend to vote way more than D's in person on ED?
Yep, I get the whole day off whether it be within the early voting period or on Election Day. I've always preferred Election Day.
I love how he just gives it back to her with facts. She's such a clown. The media doesn't know what to do with a Republican who doesn't roll over for these lib media clowns and their lies and misrepresentation.
Excellent employerSilvertaps said:StoneCold99 said:From what I've read on here, there are many business that give employees time off to vote on Election Day, but not on EV days. That could definitely be a factor.Ft.Worth_Ag said:
Why do R's tend to vote way more than D's in person on ED?
Yep, I get the whole day off whether it be within the early voting period or on Election Day. I've always preferred Election Day.
Ft.Worth_Ag said:
Why do R's tend to vote way more than D's in person on ED?
THEY HAVE JOBS!
The world needs mean tweets
My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA
Trump 2024
My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA
Trump 2024
Ft.Worth_Ag said:
Why do R's tend to vote way more than D's in person on ED?
My ballot won't be thrown in a garbage can if I put it directly in the machine on Election Day.
If you go by Target Smart early voting.
States that look good for Trump: Florida, NC, Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin (barely), Minnesota (barely), Nevada and New Mexico
States that look bad: Pennsylvania (real bad), Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan. All of these look real bad for Trump, minus Michigan which is trending DEM +3%
Granted most of the votes for Dems is in Philly and Allegheny for Pennsylvania. Detroit (Wayne) for Michigan. Atlanta For Georgia
States that look good for Trump: Florida, NC, Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin (barely), Minnesota (barely), Nevada and New Mexico
States that look bad: Pennsylvania (real bad), Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan. All of these look real bad for Trump, minus Michigan which is trending DEM +3%
Granted most of the votes for Dems is in Philly and Allegheny for Pennsylvania. Detroit (Wayne) for Michigan. Atlanta For Georgia
GA and Iowa will not go blue
MI looking bad?2021NCAggies said:
https://twitter.com/pollwatch2020/status/1319107002904113152If you go by Target Smart early voting.
States that look good for Trump: Florida, NC, Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin (barely), Minnesota (barely), Nevada and New Mexico
States that look bad: Pennsylvania (real bad), Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan. All of these look real bad for Trump, minus Michigan which is trending DEM +3%
Granted most of the votes for Dems is in Philly and Allegheny for Pennsylvania. Detroit (Wayne) for Michigan. Atlanta For Georgia
You totally didn't read my post.Silvertaps said:MI looking bad?2021NCAggies said:
https://twitter.com/pollwatch2020/status/1319107002904113152If you go by Target Smart early voting.
States that look good for Trump: Florida, NC, Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin (barely), Minnesota (barely), Nevada and New Mexico
States that look bad: Pennsylvania (real bad), Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan. All of these look real bad for Trump, minus Michigan which is trending DEM +3%
Granted most of the votes for Dems is in Philly and Allegheny for Pennsylvania. Detroit (Wayne) for Michigan. Atlanta For Georgia
I said going by early voting, reported by Target Smart.
Not BS polls
As to Georgia.lamivudine said:
GA and Iowa will not go blue
Quote:
The NY Times published a story today which includes an interview with women voters living in Atlanta's suburbs who plan to vote for Trump, in part, because of the left's push to "defund the police" and the riots associated with that message. The Times points to polling to suggest this message hasn't resonated with suburban voters around the country but admits it appears to be having an impact in Georgia.
Natalie Pontius is an interior decorator, married with two children and a University of Georgia alumna. She was born and raised in Atlanta, but moved to the city's exurbs with her family severalyears ago, drawn to the region's quality of public education. In November, she's voting for Donald Trump.
The decision was a no-brainer. "The riots, the push to defund the police that's not the direction our country needs to go," Ms. Pontius, 48, said. "I feel like the Democratic Party is continually trying to come up with ways to divide us."
According to more than a dozen such voters in and around Atlanta, what's currently keeping them from jumping ship is not so much a deep affinity for Mr. Trump, but a fear of "lawlessness" taking root should Democrats take the White House
Polling suggests that in many battleground states where protests turned violent this summer, that message hasn't broken through. But in Georgia, many voters said Mr. Trump's "law-and-order" appeals had struck a nerve, and almost all cited a fear that the call among some progressives to "defund the police" would materialize during a Biden presidency.
Quote:
The Times also spoke to Amanda Newman, who works at a law firm downtown. Newman said she's aware that Biden has said he does not support defunding the police but feels a vote for Biden is also a vote for Harris and other more extreme voices on the left, like AOC who do support those efforts. She told the Times, "I don't think Joe Biden has an opinion until somebody tells him what it is." Newman saw some of the destruction caused by the far left up close. Rioters broke the windows on the ground floor of the building where she works.
VIA Hot AirQuote:
The Times spoke to an elected Democrat from DeKalb county who said Biden could win back some of these voters by taking their fear of lawlessness seriously. In his view it's "ridiculous" to suggest that defund the police means "we don't want any police."
This being the NY Times, they didn't point out that some people really do want to disband the police. Remember when the mayor of Minneapolis was booed off the street by hundreds of protesters for refusing to endorse that goal?
Definitely not. Just saying what they are reading right now.rgag12 said:
Be careful relying on early vote totals. This guy, who supposedly teaches about elections at a university, called OHIO for Clinton using early vote figures right before we knew Trump won the state by +8
This is a weird year and I am sure it'll look a lot different by election day.
I think the DNC Cheat Codes are getting an upgrade based on the early vote reports. There is no way to get comfortable with any of the early news and prognostications. Vote!
Just an Ag said:
I think the DNC Cheat Codes are getting an upgrade based on the early vote reports. There is no way to get comfortable with any of the early news and prognostications. Vote!
Yes, we should be wary of the dems trying to cheat this thing. This is the double edged sword of performing well during the early vote period. You may be doing well, but you're also giving the Dems time to figure out what they might need to win and how to coordinate their cheating effort. Because if they want more than a 0.5% swing in votes in a state like FL, you would need a lot of jurisdictions to be on the same page. It's easy to fake votes, but it's also easy to get caught
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