I am absolutely dumbfounded that we may be looking at The Shape of Water as the best picture winner...

Agree 100%, but it feels like the tide has shifted towards Three Billboards, which is a better movie, imo.

If it was up to me, it'd be Dunkirk or Call Me By Your Name.

I'm honestly starting to believe that Get Out pulls the upset on Sunday. Even though The Shape of Water and Three Billboards have each had their day in the sun in terms of being the favorite, both have seemingly cooled in the past month or so and a lot of insiders are basically saying it's coming down to Get Out and Dunkirk, with Lady Bird having an outside shot.

All I know is that I can't remember the Best Picture field being this wide open this close to awards day. I just wish the field itself was a little more exciting...

I will just shake my head if Get Out wins the best picture. I like the movie a lot, it was a very cool concept, but I think most of us know it has absolutely no business being nominated but fully realize why it is. This is getting ridiculous.

After watching La La Land get robbed last year, if they go this route again because "TRUMP" or whatever social issue has the buzz right now I will concede that this award has officially become a joke.

What happened with The Post? Our mutual friend was convinced a few months ago it would win easily because of what was going on with Trump and his war on "fake news"

I haven't seen it yet, so don't know if its deserving or not.

In 100% agreement, for every reason you mentioned. Will be one of the most eye-rolling, undeserving wins in recent memory if either Get Out or The Shape of Water wins. Frankly, Dunkirk is the only one on the entire list that "feels" like it could be a Best Picture winner and I'd think, "Yeah, that makes sense," but at the same time I'm not over the moon for it either.

As was I, and for the same reasons. That, and it's easily in my top three for the year. It's actually the only other one that makes sense to me as a legit winner, but for whatever reasons it's been written off completely and I can't figure out why. I do admit that it does feel a bit Spielberg-light, if that makes sense, but it's still a flat out better movie than almost everything else on the list.

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I'm honestly starting to believe that Get Out pulls the upset on Sunday.

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Not trying to be a smartass, but, based on what? It doesn't look like it's won any major awards thus far in the awards season.

It seems like it'd be extremely unlikely to pull the upset this late in the game, no?

I really liked The Post, but I can understand why it isn't getting any awards. The movie was kinda all over the place. There were 3 great movies in there (Streep's, Hanks', and one just on The Pentagon Papers). The movie itself just didn't have the extra flair in it that I was expecting. I don't have any desire to see it again, but again really enjoyed it.

I will be the guy who will be happy if Get Out wins. Get Out reveals another layer everytime I rewatch it. Peele did a fantastic job of putting clues throughout the movie that makes it one of the most enjoyable, rewarding, and most important to me, rewatchable movies of the last few years.

Shape of Water is a gorgeous movie with fantastic performances that has a very basic story. I enjoyed it more than most on this board, but don't know if it will age well as a Best Picture winner.

The only other movie that I would be rooting for to win is Lady Bird. Coming of age stories are my personal favorite stories, so this was right up my alley.

I have no idea how they analyze this stuff, but that's what the "experts" are saying. I think it has something to do with the fact that all the major awards up to this point have been pretty split with no consensus stand-out. In other words, the signposts that usually point to one movie or another at this point haven't been consistent, which I guess is leading experts to believe that a field this split could mean a Get Out win. Their research is also based on interviews with voters as well, and apparently a lot of voters have expressed favor for Get Out. But that angle is definitely more of a crap shoot, obviously.

I hear you, and those are good points.

- I think Get Out is definitely an achievement, and I enjoyed it, but man, I just don't see it as belonging anywhere near this field strictly in terms of quality. It just looked like a movie from a first time filmmaker, if that makes any sense.

- And yeah, I can understand how/why people feel the way they do about The Post, but for whatever reason it just really worked for me.

Overall, out of the nominees who actually have a shot, Dunkirk and Lady Bird are probably the only two I'd be truly happy for if either won.

I really liked The Post and am surprised at the lack of attention it got in the awards season. Much more deserving than Shape of Water, that's for sure.

The more I read about the projected winners and reflect, the more I think Blade Runner should've been nominated.

Best movie of the year.

I'd put Blade Runner 2049 and The Big Sick in, and take out Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour.

PT and DH both have phenomenal lead performances, but the movies themselves are not truly great movies, imo.

BR2049 and Big Sick are both fantastic, and have phenomenal casts all around.

Btw, for an examination of just how "wrong" the Oscars can be, this is a great listen from The Bill Simmons podcast. Basically, Simmons thinks there should be a five year window before the Oscars are awarded, just so the proper time can be allowed for us to take a step back and award these movies more objectively. Granted, he's not actually advocating for this, as it makes no sense from a marketing/ratings standpoint, but it's a fun experiment where they go back through the 2012 Oscars and now with some time and perspective, make a pretty convincing case for just how bad/wrong some of the nominees/winners were...

https://www.theringer.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/2018/2/26/17054698/david-shoemaker-on-the-state-of-wrestling-and-revisiting-the-2013-oscars

Loved The Big Sick, but I can't get rid of Phantom Thread. That movie is so damn good and just continues to stick with me. Would trade BR2049 for The Darkest Hour in heartbeat, though.

If this gets ET the Oscar over Gandhi, and Star Wars over Annie Hall, and Raiders over Chariots of Fire, and literally anything over Crash, then I'm all for it.

Just watched The Darkest Hour today. Would it have killed Wright and Nolan to have a crossover moment where we see Mark Rylance hear Oldham over the radio, then get the order and hop on his boat? I kept hoping for it.

Only BP I haven't seen is Phantom Thread. Not sure I'll have time before Sunday.

Kimmel is ready.

https://www.today.com/popculture/jimmy-kimmel-haunted-last-year-s-oscars-hilarious-new-promo-t121565

I haven't seen Shape of Water yet, but I would personally vote for Dunkirk, and then 3 billboards. I'm a huge fan of both directors though, and I'm always a sucker for his specific style of dark comedy that he mixes into his movies.

On the eve of the awards, here are the current odds. My picks/predictions are in bold and some of my personal preferences (some of which aren't nominated) are below certain categories. Not the greatest year/field overall, but the unpredictability certainly makes up for it in terms of awards show excitement...


BEST PICTURE

"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" - 20/23
"The Shape of Water" - 7/5
"Get Out" - 11/2
"Ladybird" - 14/1
"Dunkirk" - 33/1
"Call Me by Your Name" - 66/1
"The Post" - 100/1
"Darkest Hour" - 100/1
"Phantom Thread" - 100/1

Personal Preference: "Blade Runner 2049"


BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman ("Darkest Hour") - 1/25
Timothee Chalamet ("Call Me by Your Name") - 10/1
Daniel Day-Lewis ("Phantom Thread") - 15/1
Daniel Kaluuya ("Get Out") - 16/1
Denzel Washington ("Roman J. Israel, Esq.") - 33/1

Personal Preference: James Franco ("The Disaster Artist")


BEST ACTRESS

Frances McDormand ("Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri") - 1/16
Saoirse Ronan ("Lady Bird") - 7/1
Sally Hawkins ("The Shape of Water") - 14/1
Margot Robbie ("I, Tonya") - 25/1
Meryl Streep ("The Post") - 50/1


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell ("Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri") - 1/8
Willem Dafoe ("The Florida Project") - 9/2
Richard Jenkins ("The Shape of Water") - 16/1
Christopher Plummer ("All the Money in the World") - 20/1
Woody Harrelson ("Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri") - 33/1


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Allison Janney ("I, Tonya") - 1/6
Laurie Metcalf ("Lady Bird") - 4/1
Mary J. Blige ("Mudbound") - 16/1
Lesley Manville ("Phantom Thread") - 20/1
Octavia Spencer ("The Shape of Water") - 20/1


BEST DIRECTOR

Guillermo Del Toro ("The Shape of Water") - 1/10
Christopher Nolan ("Dunkirk") - 6/1
Greta Gerwig ("Lady Bird") - 8/1
Jordan Peele ("Get Out") - 33/1
Paul Thomas Anderson ("Phantom Thread") - 66/1

Personal Preference: Christopher Nolan ("Dunkirk")


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

"Get Out" - EVEN
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" - 7/5
"Lady Bird" - 7/2
"The Shape of Water" - 25/1
"The Big Sick" - 33/1

Personal Preference: "Lady Bird"


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

"Call Me by Your Name" - 1/12
"Mudbound" - 7/1
"Molly's Game" - 12/1
"The Disaster Artist" - 20/1
"Logan" - 33/1

Personal Preference: "Logan"


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

"Coco" - 1/50
"Boss Baby" - 15/1
"The Breadwinner" - 16/1
"Losing Vincent" - 16/1
"Ferdinand" - 22/1


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

"Blade Runner 2049" - 1/8
"Dunkirk" - 6/1
"The Shape of Water" - 10/1
"Mudbound" - 20/1
"Darkest Hour" - 30/1

Personal Preference: "Blade Runner 2049"


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Alexandre Desplat ("The Shape of Water") - 1/4
Hans Zimmer ("Dunkirk") - 5/1
Jonny Greenwood ("Phantom Thread") - 7/1
John Williams ("Star Wars: The Last Jedi") - 15/1
Carter Burwell ("Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri") - 15/1


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Remember Me" from "Coco" - 4/7
"This is Me" from "The Greatest Showman" - 3/1
"The Mystery of Love" from "Call Me by Your Name" - 18/1
"Mighty River" from "Mudbound" - 22/1
"Stand Up for Something" from "Marshall" - 80/1


BEST SOUND EDITING

"Dunkirk" - 2/11
"Baby Driver" - 14/1
"Blade Runner 2049" - 22/1
"The Shape of Water" - 50/1
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi" - 66/1


BEST SOUND MIXING

"Dunkirk" - 1/4
"Baby Driver" - 13/2
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi" - 40/1
"Blade Runner 2049" - 40/1
"The Shape of Water" - 66/1


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

"Phantom Thread" - 1/9
"Beauty and the Beast" - 11/2
"The Shape of Water" - 15/1
"Darkest Hour" - 18/1
"Victoria and Abdul" - 30/1


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

"Darkest Hour" - 1/10
"Wonder" - 5/1
"Victoria and Abdul" - 20/1


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

"The Shape of Water" - 1/7
"Blade Runner 2049" - 4/1
"Beauty and the Beast" - 18/1
"Dunkirk" - 20/1
"Darkest Hour" - 35/1

Personal Preference: "Blade Runner 2049"


BEST FILM EDITING

"Dunkirk" - 1/5
"Baby Driver" - 11/4
"The Shape of Water" - 16/1
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" - 40/1
"I, Tonya" - 40/1


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

"War for the Planet of the Apes" - 20/23
"Blade Runner 2049" - 20/23
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi" - 16/1
"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" - 22/1
"Kong: Skull Island" - 33/3


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

"A Fantastic Woman" (Chile) - 1/2
"The Square" (Sweden) - 11/5
"The Insult" (Lebanon) - 9/1
"Loveless" (Russia) - 10/1
"On Body and Soul" (Hungary) - 33/1


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

"Faces Places" - 1/3
"Icarus" - 13/4
"Last Men in Aleppo" - 6/1
"Strong Island" - 25/1
"Abacus: Small Enough to Jail" - 25/1


BEST ANIMATED SHORT

"Dear Basketball" - 4/7
"Garden Party" - 13/2
"Lou" - 8/1
"Negative Space" - 12/1
"Revolting Rhymes" - 20/1


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

"Edith+Eddie" - 1/1
"Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405" - 12/5
"Heroin(e)" - 11/2
"Knife Skills" - 33/1
"Traffic Stop" - 66/1


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

"DeKalb Elementary" - 8/13
"The Silent Child" - 7/2
"The Eleven O'Clock" - 10/1
"My Nephew Emmett" - 22/1
"Watu Wote/All of Us" - 40/1

If Get Out won BP before a Nolan directed film won, then **** all awards.

I loved the movie but it has no business even being in the discussion. Hell the crew from Crash would be laughing their ass off.

Also, I know Janney is a lock for the Oscar, but her role had a very high floor and while she did good, she didn't do enough to sway me emotionally in that role for a win.

Yeah I liked Get Out but I don't think it deserves true discussion for BP. I just wrapped up yesterday seeing all 9 best picture nominees and I would put it in the 7-9 range ranking them 1-9.

Sex Panther said:

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I will just shake my head if Get Out wins the best picture. I like the movie a lot, it was a very cool concept, but I think most of us know it has absolutely no business being nominated but fully realize why it is. This is getting ridiculous.

After watching La La Land get robbed last year, if they go this route again because "TRUMP" or whatever social issue has the buzz right now I will concede that this award has officially become a joke.

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La La Land had no business winning best picture.

Living Legend said:

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Sex Panther said:

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I will just shake my head if Get Out wins the best picture. I like the movie a lot, it was a very cool concept, but I think most of us know it has absolutely no business being nominated but fully realize why it is. This is getting ridiculous.

After watching La La Land get robbed last year, if they go this route again because "TRUMP" or whatever social issue has the buzz right now I will concede that this award has officially become a joke.

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La La Land had no business winning best picture.

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Oh, well nevermind then

I agree, La La Land was a mediocre musical at best, imo.

Never saw Moonlight though.