The Post thread got me thinking about the current Oscar race and how weird/crappy this year is, with no true frontrunner as of yet. But after putting together the list of contenders, and really looking it over, there's actually still potential for a really interesting year.

Basically, most of the winners are likely to come from some combination of nominees from the pool below....

- The Big Sick
- Call Me By Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- The Disaster Artist
- Dunkirk
- Get Out
- The Florida Project
- I, Tonya
- Lady Bird
- Molly's Game
- Mudbound
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- The Shape of Water
- Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

And sure, something like The Last Jedi or The Greatest Showman could sneak into the race last minute, but with no one having seen either yet, it's hard to say, and chances are slim. Same goes for Wonder Woman, which is just as much of a long shot, but with the reception this summer, it's not out of the question either.

I don't think we've ever had a thread on the subject this early, but I thought it not only might be fun to track and discuss, as the majority of these movies are about to release over the coming weeks, but could also serve as a guide of sorts through the end of the year as to what to see, keep your eye on, etc. Granted, nearly all of these have already been seen by critics, and certain nominations are pretty much locked at this point, but there are still plenty of wild cards. And the good thing about no true Best Picture from runner yet could make for some genuine excitement down the homestretch... for those who care about such things.

That definitely seems to be the consensus. At this point, everyone's saying either Dunkirk, The Post, or Three Billboards for Best Picture. But no one has even seen The Post yet, and a lot can change over the next two months. Still, if I had to bet, I'd take both of your predictions right now.

Out of that list, I'd go with Dunkirk as well.

I think Mark Hamill may pulled a best supporting actor for TLJ

Would be so awesome to see Hamill get recognized.

i'm sad the world has forgotten how good Jackman and Stewart were in Logan. i get it's a comic book movie and all that, but it was great pacing, acting and storytelling.

Agreed. Should definitely be part of the conversation.

any chance of Wind River snagging an upper tier award or has any buzz from that all but died?

There will definitely be a push for it, but sadly it feels like the buzz has died. Haven't really seen it mentioned anywhere as a serious contender, even though it definitely deserves it.

Yeah, I thought Logan was better than GotG2 or Wonder Woman.

Dunkirk is still the best movie I've seen this year, though I also really enjoyed Get Out and The Big Sick.

Best Screenplay could also be an interesting race.

From an Oscar perspective, I see Logan as having the best chances of the hero/comic films. I feel they really like those character study pieces, and Logan might have had the most layers in that area. Basically take out the mutant stuff and why wouldn't it be an Oscar nom?

And I had read somewhere that there's legit chances for Stewart to get a nom for supporting-actor. Definitely deserves it, and wouldn't be surprised to see at least a nomination happening for him as a nod to his entire body of work (not just in film, but TV and theater, too). (But that might just be wishful thinking on my part, as I've been rewatching all of TNG over the past few months.)

Coco is getting some really good early reviews from what I've seen and heard.

May be enough to snag it at least a BP nom?

THe Lady Bird buzz seems pretty strong right now, will likely at least be director nod for Greta Gerwig

Damn you're right. Didn't even think about that

israeliag said:

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From an Oscar perspective, I see Logan as having the best chances of the hero/comic films. I feel they really like those character study pieces, and Logan might have had the most layers in that area. Basically take out the mutant stuff and why wouldn't it be an Oscar nom?

And I had read somewhere that there's legit chances for Stewart to get a nom for supporting-actor. Definitely deserves it, and wouldn't be surprised to see at least a nomination happening for him as a nod to his entire body of work (not just in film, but TV and theater, too). (But that might just be wishful thinking on my part, as I've been rewatching all of TNG over the past few months.)

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Totally possible he could get the nod for his great performance because of his body of work.

He is always amazing and well liked as a person. Although at this point, I guess we would never truly be able to say that.

But it is the kind of thing where it is easily done because Christopher Plumber, Alan Arkin, Martin Landau have all won because of the work in that role but they had a lifetime of stellar performances.

No Blade Runner?

Unfortunately, no. I would give it Best Picture in a heartbeat, but it's weird how this stuff works out sometimes, and the narrative that gets painted. I think the box office results really stained it in a lot of people's eyes. Granted, a ton of Oscar nominees hardly make any money, but they don't lose the amount of money BR did either. Within a matter of days it went from universal praise to box office bomb, and just never caught that awards wave because of that, even though it absolutely deserves it. Who knows, maybe it could surprise, but I doubt it.

Will probably be nominated in a lot of technical categories. Special effects, editing, sound editing, maybe even score.

Very true.

It is a weird year. loved the Big Sick. I thought Baby Driver might be a dark horse Best Picture nomination but I think Spacey might have killed any chance it had, slim as they were. I saw Wonder Woman and liked it but it's not BP level for me. Same for Logan. Also saw A Ghost Story which was mesmerizing but too artsy for anything i think.

It feels like we are in a big lull right now before all the movies come out. The last couple weeks I've had a few nights I could have hit the movies and there was NOTHING I wanted to see. Everything is either out of the theatres or still to come. Nothing is out right now.

Quad Dog said:

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Will probably be nominated in a lot of technical categories. Special effects, editing, sound editing, maybe even score.

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One would hope...

I thought Dunkirk sucked but it's the type of movie that Hollywood love to love I suppose.

Jimmy McNulty said:

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I thought Dunkirk sucked but it's the type of movie that Hollywood love to love I suppose.

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It's also the type of movie that 98% of the entertainment board loves.

Well then call me a 2%'er

Dunkirk was ****ing amazing.

I actually think Dunkirk is the type of movie Hollywood & the general audience loves to love, but also overlook for awards.

I think Dunkirk is the best movie I've seen this year, but I doubt it wins Best Picture because there are plenty of people who didn't like the lack of plot/characters, in other words the same things that made a lot of us love it.

Definitely a year where no movie will sweep awards. I could see different movies winning a bunch of categories. Dunkirk winning best Director, but not Best Picture, and something smaller winning Best Screenplay.

Watched Get Out. I enjoyed it but I wouldn't say it's a Best Picture nomination worthy movie. The Big Sick and Baby Driver would both get my vote over it to fill the "not usual Academy fair indie" slot. It was an above average thriller to me, but not much more than that.

In 100% agreement, but this looks like a train that won't be stopped. For whatever reason, people/pundits are really clinging to it, and I'd be shocked if it didn't get a Best Picture nomination at this point.

TC, has there been any buzz at all for Logan maybe grabbing a BP nom?

Big Sick was great, I'd be happy to see it get nominated.

Baby Driver has the Spacey stigma now.