Oh I don't think he's a nitwit.

If 2026 is a blue wave year, LePage would not be winning ME-02 by 5 pts. and flipping this district. The house specific district polls are showing a very different picture than the bogus national poll with democrats wining by a double digit. pic.twitter.com/BNK7C4Xdsv

— Khoa (@1980Khoa) November 2, 2026

House races I again haven't really followed but I don't buy the dooming about national polls there either.

ETA: Somalis for Amy Acton. Apparently Vivek Ramaswamy is part of the white nationalist MAGA crowd.

Quote:

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"It's our country. It's our people. Our aim is a united front for Somalia," Mohamed says. He encourages anyone in the Columbus, Ohio, area to vote and volunteer for Acton.
The Columbus, Ohio, area is home to the second-largest Somali community in the United States behind Minneapolis. There are nearly 70,000 Somali immigrants currently living in central Ohio, according to one estimate.
The New York Times dropped into the area in January amid an ICE effort to crack down on illegal immigration. The far-left mayor of Columbus called ICE's presence "unwelcome" while opposing Trump administration efforts to enforce immigration laws.

---

"Our aim is a united front to lobby for Somalia" - Rep Ismail Mohamed

He just endorsed Amy Acton. https://t.co/0iv3KEKcmj pic.twitter.com/laY4vzrPou

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 1, 2026

My choice for him too.

while i'd be happy with dems modestly taking both chambers and gridlocking trump for the rest of his term, the ideal scenario is they win so decisively that republicans have no choice but to thoroughly excise every last trace of trump and trumpism from the gop. a man can dream.

Old McDonald said:

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while i'd be happy with dems modestly taking both chambers and gridlocking trump for the rest of his term, the ideal scenario is they win so decisively that republicans have no choice but to thoroughly excise every last trace of trump and trumpism from the gop. a man can dream.

---

But what is a man? Bigot.

Kansas FACTS

Republicans lead combined mail and early voting by +2.4% (+10,286).

173,884 out of 517,003 Democrats have voted.

184,710 out of 900,735 Republicans have voted - 24,222 more than on this date last year.

So, Republicans ARE voting. There isn’t any control over how…

— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) November 2, 2026

Dem narrative is that KS is now a done deal for them.
ETA:

Terrible news for democrats in KS. TargetSmart now has the mail/IPEV as R+3 (up from R+1 yesterday, D+2 on Thursday, D+4 on Wednesday and D+7 last Monday). Democrat's dream of blue KS has evaporated and Trump's rally in Salina yesterday probably turbo republican turnout for ED. pic.twitter.com/aC59SbOBOp

— Khoa (@1980Khoa) November 2, 2026

For anyone doubting that the mainline Dems won't embrace DSA:

Quote:

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Allies of establishment Democrats say the party apparatus hasn't only gotten behind El-Sayed and Jackson but has also gone above and beyondespecially compared with the far left. The Schumer-aligned super PAC, for example, had previously announced plans to spend more than $60 million on communications in support of El-Sayed and $33 million for Jackson on TV by Election Day. It hasn't announced investment in Minnesota. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Senate Democrats' campaign arm, has invested more than $21 million to support El-Sayed and $8 million for Jackson.

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In other news, the fake Democrat Dan Sullivan in Alaska is still MIA. No one knows where he is. Incredible people are going to knowingly vote for fraud like that.

Teslag said:

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Old McDonald said:

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while i'd be happy with dems modestly taking both chambers and gridlocking trump for the rest of his term, the ideal scenario is they win so decisively that republicans have no choice but to thoroughly excise every last trace of trump and trumpism from the gop. a man can dream.

---

No one that can read your post history is falling for the "hey guys I'm really just a moderate that hates Trump" schtick

---

Good call.

Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters (D-MI) tells Michigan Democrats that they can split their ticket, voting for Democrats and Mike Rogers pic.twitter.com/fSkHyN6zLH

— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) November 2, 2026

"It's ok. You are now allowed."

The Dems conduct in Alaska is emblematic of the point I have made repeatedly about 2020.

Because we cannot AUDIT elections -- different than a recount -- the risks of being caught cheating are negligible.

But even when Dems are caught cheating in Alaska, the Dems are now…

— Shipwreckedcrew (@shipwreckedcrew) November 2, 2026

ALERT: NAACP has filed for an emergency restraining order in DC federal court to block federal law enforcement agents from serving as federal “election monitors" pic.twitter.com/z46b6oopVy

— Scott MacFarlane (@MacFarlaneNews) November 2, 2026

I'm so old, I remember when the Carter Center (yes, that Carter) lamented that even the allegations of voter interference would have a corrosive impact on trust in the elections.

Quote:

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She says that even the suggestion of interference can have a negative effect on voters.

"These narratives around interference do have a corrosive effect on people's confidence in the election process."

---

But 2020 fortunately was the most 'fortified' election in history, of course.

nortex97 said:

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Kansas FACTS

Republicans lead combined mail and early voting by +2.4% (+10,286).

173,884 out of 517,003 Democrats have voted.

184,710 out of 900,735 Republicans have voted - 24,222 more than on this date last year.

So, Republicans ARE voting. There isn’t any control over how…

— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) November 2, 2026

Dem narrative is that KS is now a done deal for them.
ETA:

Terrible news for democrats in KS. TargetSmart now has the mail/IPEV as R+3 (up from R+1 yesterday, D+2 on Thursday, D+4 on Wednesday and D+7 last Monday). Democrat's dream of blue KS has evaporated and Trump's rally in Salina yesterday probably turbo republican turnout for ED. pic.twitter.com/aC59SbOBOp

— Khoa (@1980Khoa) November 2, 2026

---

That certainly isn't the narrative here in KS. If anything people think Hamilton has a slim chance to win but still unlikely given the history of the state.

Thx. I agree with that sentiment given the math. The latter tweet I just provided after hearing some 'silly' sounding optimism this am from Dan Turrentine about the state.

FWIW, here are the updates I can share from the PAC that I formerly chaired. It is a national PAC focused on federal races, so the updates are more on the Senate side.

Michigan was heading towards a big R loss, but I have not visited with anyone after the news of the last couple of days to see if has reshaped the race. I personally still think Rogers pulls this out.

NC, GA - gone by a large margin, as expected

Iowa - R expected to hold

OH - Hopeful R hold, Vivek is a real drain down ballot and may cost this seat.

ME, AK, and KS - these are the races to watch and can go either way. Not a lot of confidence in predictions, but likely a split decision.

TX - pains me to say, expected R loss. Abbott is expected to outrun Paxton by 5%. A few weeks ago, Abbott was forecasted to win by 5-6%. Since early voting models and the late decision makers have gone against R's, the hope is Abbott can hold on by 1-2% - can do the math on Paxton.

There could be more R losses across the state (Patrick most likely).

House will be blue.

The fear is that soft Republicans will stay home and independents and moderates will break big to Democrats, making the election go from bad to really bad for Republicans. "Brace for impact" is the takeaway.

We will see.

Republicans: [one day out from a possible midterms wipeout]

The president: Have you ever noticed I look like Elvis pic.twitter.com/Kp3KSkVLbD

— Josh Billinson (@jbillinson) November 2, 2026

The betting odds on the Maine and Michigan Senate races shifted pretty hard to the Dems the last few weeks. RCP tracks the polymarket probabilities and the current state of play is


Maine - Jackson 75%//Collins 25%

Texas - Talarico 49%/Paxton 46%

Michigan - El Sayed 50%/Rogers 44%

Ohio - Brown 49%/Husted 46%

Kansas - Hamilton 50%/Marshall 46%

Alaska - Pelota 49%/Sullivan 48%


Iowa has a dead heat between Hinson and Turek 47%/47%

AZ up to their normal tricks...

Due to power related issues, the Vote Centers located at Paradise Community College and Sunset Canyon School are temporarily closed. Please visit https://t.co/2Hs9CznUMi to find a nearby voting location. pic.twitter.com/MdJ8rxNEix

— Maricopa County Elections (@MaricopaVote) November 2, 2026

Of course they are. https://t.co/gmwcUJw8KD

— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) November 2, 2026

The sarcasm here is off the charts funny.

Like Haley Stevens, I am a lifelong Democrat from Michigan, and I must reluctantly endorse Mike Rogers because Abdul is, well, an islamist communist who hates America. As a Democrat, I would normally like all those things, but the fact that he’s so short turned me against him.…

— Kurt Schlichter (@KurtSchlichter) November 1, 2026

See: DMN editorial of paid Dem consultant endorsing the Dem ticket.

A look of utter PANIC overtakes a Republican voter in Anchorage, Alaska, as he realizes that he may have voted for the wrong Dan Sullivan.

Democrats and their media allies insist there is no confusion among voters.

That’s just not true.

Watch this man’s facial expressions… pic.twitter.com/RhIvPePmYq

— Overton (@overton_news) November 2, 2026

Dude probably still wears a mask driving.


Note: the two Dan Sullivans scam should not be allowed. But has this guy been in a coma? Or just stupid?

I owe you an apology.

I have been way too conservative in my election predictions.

Some fresh data came in yesterday and now it looks like we will see:

- Republicans win 55 seats in the Senate
- Republics keeping the House with a 10 seat majority.
- Winning nearly all…

— Jon Elder (@BlackLabelAdvsr) November 1, 2026

Did not have this on my bingo card...

Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters (D-MI) tells Michigan Democrats that they can split their ticket, voting for Democrats and Mike Rogers pic.twitter.com/fSkHyN6zLH

— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) November 2, 2026

Vote like the lives of your children and grandchildren depend on it. Because they do.

This is the early voting line in Dearborn, MI. Like it or not, demographics are destiny. pic.twitter.com/AJA2i7ntpp

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) November 2, 2026

I think the tide has turned in Michigan. Rogers is also a strong candidate with crossover appeal.

If you haven't voted, tomorrow is your day!

Texas prediction: Paxton +2 to 4.4

Analysis:
The important data leading to this is

1) precinct levels in metros and collars have NOT gotten significantly bluer in any areas, indicating broad turnout differentials towards Dems (this was not true in 2018)

2) Turnout in rurals… pic.twitter.com/Kfayk4DVjX

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) November 2, 2026

BREAKING: CT State Rep Anne Hughes (D) charged with larceny after allegedly stealing campaign signs belonging to her opponent

The signs were reported missing and an airtag in the sign led police straight to a property owned by Hughes pic.twitter.com/R6thN1DeML

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 1, 2026

Good news on observing / poll watching.

will25u said:

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BREAKING: CT State Rep Anne Hughes (D) charged with larceny after allegedly stealing campaign signs belonging to her opponent

The signs were reported missing and an airtag in the sign led police straight to a property owned by Hughes pic.twitter.com/R6thN1DeML

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 1, 2026

---

You never bring the evidence home.

NEW: DOJ announces six new arrests today of non-citizens who allegedly voted in CA. Total is now 34 in Operation Protect the Vote. pic.twitter.com/lJLy81J9M6

— Matt Finn (@MattFinnFNC) November 2, 2026