Exactly. We have a power grid that can't deliver power to everyone when the temperature drops below freezing. Does this mean the republic of Texas is officially a 3rd world country? Sure feels like it.TRM said:
Or it'll be better when everyone is above freezing...
Rolling blackouts in Texas
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Last: 3 yr ago by Whitetail
Well of course, that's the whole point. That's how it is supposed to work. There is not a gas vs wind competition. They complement each other well. Wind varies over a 24 cycle, at a fast but not super fast rate - so gas turbines can cycle. Even combined cycle (gas and steam) plants can cycle slowly without much trouble. Other forms struggle. They're even installing battery packages in gas turbine plants so they can dispatch to the grid "instantly" with batteries, bring the GT up, run, then recharge before shutting down.
They're symbiotic and together their natural prey is coal...The real loser is coal, because in high wind, they get priced out by near-free wind MW, and when the wind slows they can't ramp fast enough to participate in the short term higher price windows. Photovoltaic solar exacerbates all of this.
I think the "winddidit" "gasdidit" back and forth is basically propaganda. On paper we should have been fine with zero wind, we weren't. Why?
To me it looks like we simply might not have had enough capacity at all.
Also, if ERCOT had preemptively begun rolling before the grid lost a chunk of thermal capacity and we had limped through in an orderly fashion without anyone going 48+ hours without power, would any of the criticism be relevant? We were unprepared for this event. People are using it as a political opportunity to attack whatever they already don't like. That doesn't actually help anything, doesn't help understand or solve any problems.
They're symbiotic and together their natural prey is coal...The real loser is coal, because in high wind, they get priced out by near-free wind MW, and when the wind slows they can't ramp fast enough to participate in the short term higher price windows. Photovoltaic solar exacerbates all of this.
I think the "winddidit" "gasdidit" back and forth is basically propaganda. On paper we should have been fine with zero wind, we weren't. Why?
To me it looks like we simply might not have had enough capacity at all.
Also, if ERCOT had preemptively begun rolling before the grid lost a chunk of thermal capacity and we had limped through in an orderly fashion without anyone going 48+ hours without power, would any of the criticism be relevant? We were unprepared for this event. People are using it as a political opportunity to attack whatever they already don't like. That doesn't actually help anything, doesn't help understand or solve any problems.
Edit: Sorry, post added nothing of value to thread. 72 hours without power catching up with me. Carry on.
If you stop QUOTING them, that would go a long way as wll
This is the data I've been looking for. Thanks.
Sure, sorry.
From an engineering point of view this is an excellent post.Zobel said:
Well of course, that's the whole point. That's how it is supposed to work. There is not a gas vs wind competition. They complement each other well. Wind varies over a 24 cycle, at a fast but not super fast rate - so gas turbines can cycle. Even combined cycle (gas and steam) plants can cycle slowly without much trouble. Other forms struggle. They're even installing battery packages in gas turbine plants so they can dispatch to the grid "instantly" with batteries, bring the GT up, run, then recharge before shutting down.
They're symbiotic and together their natural prey is coal...The real loser is coal, because in high wind, they get priced out by near-free wind MW, and when the wind slows they can't ramp fast enough to participate in the short term higher price windows. Photovoltaic solar exacerbates all of this.
I think the "winddidit" "gasdidit" back and forth is basically propaganda. On paper we should have been fine with zero wind, we weren't. Why?
To me it looks like we simply might not have had enough capacity at all.
Also, if ERCOT had preemptively begun rolling before the grid lost a chunk of thermal capacity and we had limped through in an orderly fashion without anyone going 48+ hours without power, would any of the criticism be relevant? We were unprepared for this event. People are using it as a political opportunity to attack whatever they already don't like. That doesn't actually help anything, doesn't help understand or solve any problems.
It really shouldn't be that hard to piece together how this happen. I am skeptical that we will all find the truth.
From reading these threads and lending credence to those in the industry, it sounds like this MIGHT be a combination of:
1) wind turbines froze
2) some gas plants failed due to freezing weather (water in lines, supply disruption at the wellhead due to water in gas production, plants not kept up, possible gas distribution problems, etc.)
3) South TX nuclear plant partial failure due to freezing weather (upkeep issues?)
4) coal plants and oil fuel usage phased out or diminished due to federal regulations. These are the fuels that can be stockpiled on-site and this use to be the way we fought through bad freeze events
5) Solar power generation diminished due to cloudy weather
6) Plant failures listed above due to deregulation of power creating less incentive to spend money on plant upkeep
7) entire state frozen at the same time,...once in a lifetime event,...hard to estimate demand, Most of Texas doesn't receive power from the major East and West distribution systems.
8) gas plants were shuttered for Spring maintenance and could not be brought back up fast enough.
9) demand wasn't accurately calculated due to growing Texas population
7) Shorted electric prices? I don't fully understand this, but certainly could see it happening. This is criminal.
8) ERCOT members don't live in Texas, and therefor decision making can be more easily influenced (possible?)
9) All electric homes created by past federal regulations which created more demand as opposed to gas/electric combination construction.
Any other ideas?
No it's only because wind sucks or because fossil fuels failed.
Right vs. Left.
Think your list pretty well sums up the issues at hand and how many and complex they are.
Right vs. Left.
Think your list pretty well sums up the issues at hand and how many and complex they are.
gonemaroon speculated that if there were earlier interventions (load shedding) the impact would have been lessened.Jnsag said:
Any other ideas?
Where can I find that bottom map online?gonemaroon said:
Progress occurring
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Down to 6 rolls of toilet paper
CNN is an enemy of the state and should be treated as such.
It's mid-February. Why would gas plants shut down during a month that historically has cold weather in Texas?Quote:
8) gas plants were shuttered for Spring maintenance and could not be brought back up fast enough.
stetson said:It's mid-February. Why would gas plants shut down during a month that historically has cold weather in Texas?Quote:
8) gas plants were shuttered for Spring maintenance and could not be brought back up fast enough.
Probably because it had been 70 plus degrees. Also, ERCOT has to approve any and all outages, so they had final say.
Just got home and powers still out. 76 hours
**** ERCOT
**** oncor
**** cirro energy
**** Greg abbot
**** every politician no matter their party
**** ERCOT
**** oncor
**** cirro energy
**** Greg abbot
**** every politician no matter their party
I don't know that anyone has posted, but a small portion of Texas (including Lake Livingston area) is in MISO not ERCOT territory. MISO has handled this like a champ. Very interesting article here
https://www.samhouston.net/news/winter-storm-updates-february-2021?fbclid=IwAR111jOa4ZVTX0MQxDQClGLzrZza93R_aQw1yXAeXTp8hGZe3VapX1yYdKc
" So while MISO did experience extreme high electricity demand and consumption, as well as power outages, it is expected that MISO area consumers will not see the dramatic price increases that are expected in ERCOT."
https://www.samhouston.net/news/winter-storm-updates-february-2021?fbclid=IwAR111jOa4ZVTX0MQxDQClGLzrZza93R_aQw1yXAeXTp8hGZe3VapX1yYdKc
" So while MISO did experience extreme high electricity demand and consumption, as well as power outages, it is expected that MISO area consumers will not see the dramatic price increases that are expected in ERCOT."
stetson said:It's mid-February. Why would gas plants shut down during a month that historically has cold weather in Texas?Quote:
8) gas plants were shuttered for Spring maintenance and could not be brought back up fast enough.
Because they nickel and dime maintenance and had a critical failure that can't be ignored
We are now running out of fuel at service stations
. Because the crews performing maintenance are typically booked year-round excluding summer peak. Like everything else, it could've been prevented but would cost more.stetson said:It's mid-February. Why would gas plants shut down during a month that historically has cold weather in Texas?Quote:
8) gas plants were shuttered for Spring maintenance and could not be brought back up fast enough.
itsyourboypookie said:
We are now running out of fuel at service stations
Not shocked by this. Gonna likely take a week. Not able to deliver with reserves going to warming homes and a likely mad rush. Surprised gas stations aren't already out
itsyourboypookie said:
We are now running out of fuel at service stations
Where are you seeing this?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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AG
I had to run an errand yesterday in SA and there were lines for gas and several stations were out. I cant tell if people are hoarding or if it is just that so many stsations power was out, probably both.
https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/will-there-be-fuel-at-gas-stations-tankers-stalled-during-bad-weather-hoping-to-deliver-soon/aginlakeway said:itsyourboypookie said:
We are now running out of fuel at service stations
Where are you seeing this?
You can't
Username provides the answer. Especially suppressed subsonic.45-70Ag said:
Just got home and powers still out. 76 hours
**** ERCOT
**** oncor
**** cirro energy
**** Greg abbot
**** every politician no matter their party
Everywhere In my community. Multiple stations out of gas yesterday. Last night a Stripes within a few miles of my house was the last station standing, but they were limiting transactions. Couldn't fill cans for generator AND top off my car. One or the other.
cbr said:Username provides the answer. Especially suppressed subsonic.45-70Ag said:
Just got home and powers still out. 76 hours
**** ERCOT
**** oncor
**** cirro energy
**** Greg abbot
**** every politician no matter their party
Maybe i was a little irritated and went over the top but damn, 76 hours and can't even get a few hours.
I can see a US Highway from the ranch house that normally has pretty heavy truck traffic. Been watching it for the last few days, hardly any traffic at all, much less tractor trailers. Major disruptions in the supply chain for most everything.
Just called our local grocery store that normally get their trucks in on Mondays and Thursdays. They had the trucks in on Monday but today's has not come in yet nor were they sure it would.
Just called our local grocery store that normally get their trucks in on Mondays and Thursdays. They had the trucks in on Monday but today's has not come in yet nor were they sure it would.
itsyourboypookie said:
We are now running out of fuel at service stations
Literal propaganda
“A republic, if you can keep it”
AggieKatie2 said:
ETX is honestly starting to scare me a bit as someone who may be trigger happy.
AggieKatie2 said:
ETX is honestly starting to scare me a bit as someone who may be trigger happy.
aginlakeway said:itsyourboypookie said:
We are now running out of fuel at service stations
Where are you seeing this?
Everywhere I drive
itsyourboypookie said:aginlakeway said:itsyourboypookie said:
We are now running out of fuel at service stations
Where are you seeing this?
Everywhere I drive
Thanks! We both have 1/2-3/4 of a tank and aren't driving much. I assume gas issues will be better next week.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
Santa Anna is completely out and can't get trucks. Brownwood is 50% maybe with lines at stations. Bangs has gas because they haven't had power. Coleman has fuel at some stations because they didn't have power. Comanche has fuel at the stations that didn't have power. Limestone county is 100% out of fuel.
Not sure if the refinery's have been running or what they have stored but diesel went up $.50 overnight in brownwood
Not sure if the refinery's have been running or what they have stored but diesel went up $.50 overnight in brownwood
So who's going to jail? The masses demand a sacrifice.
What have ye done to surpass man?
gonemaroon said:
My team and I work ATC during big events. I slept two intervals of about 3 hours. I'm pretty beat up, but there hasn't been too many transactions going on in ERCOT since the event. Some wind farms frozen up that needed to buy back some shorts. Some generators that broke but once the prices went to the automatic cap of $9,000 all trading pretty much stopped.
Took a couple hours a day to talk to reporters / industry specific there's not that many folks that know much about electricity markets.
I wish I could have been posting more on here but just been too busy, but if anyone has any questions please ask I'll have a free 30 minutes this morning and will post some stuff on here. Let me post the supply demand graphs and the generators
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