Zobel said:
Well of course, that's the whole point. That's how it is supposed to work. There is not a gas vs wind competition. They complement each other well. Wind varies over a 24 cycle, at a fast but not super fast rate - so gas turbines can cycle. Even combined cycle (gas and steam) plants can cycle slowly without much trouble. Other forms struggle. They're even installing battery packages in gas turbine plants so they can dispatch to the grid "instantly" with batteries, bring the GT up, run, then recharge before shutting down.
They're symbiotic and together their natural prey is coal...The real loser is coal, because in high wind, they get priced out by near-free wind MW, and when the wind slows they can't ramp fast enough to participate in the short term higher price windows. Photovoltaic solar exacerbates all of this.
I think the "winddidit" "gasdidit" back and forth is basically propaganda. On paper we should have been fine with zero wind, we weren't. Why?
To me it looks like we simply might not have had enough capacity at all.
Also, if ERCOT had preemptively begun rolling before the grid lost a chunk of thermal capacity and we had limped through in an orderly fashion without anyone going 48+ hours without power, would any of the criticism be relevant? We were unprepared for this event. People are using it as a political opportunity to attack whatever they already don't like. That doesn't actually help anything, doesn't help understand or solve any problems.
From an engineering point of view this is an excellent post.
It really shouldn't be that hard to piece together how this happen. I am skeptical that we will all find the truth.
From reading these threads and lending credence to those in the industry, it sounds like this MIGHT be a combination of:
1) wind turbines froze
2) some gas plants failed due to freezing weather (water in lines, supply disruption at the wellhead due to water in gas production, plants not kept up, possible gas distribution problems, etc.)
3) South TX nuclear plant partial failure due to freezing weather (upkeep issues?)
4) coal plants and oil fuel usage phased out or diminished due to federal regulations. These are the fuels that can be stockpiled on-site and this use to be the way we fought through bad freeze events
5) Solar power generation diminished due to cloudy weather
6) Plant failures listed above due to deregulation of power creating less incentive to spend money on plant upkeep
7) entire state frozen at the same time,...once in a lifetime event,...hard to estimate demand, Most of Texas doesn't receive power from the major East and West distribution systems.
8) gas plants were shuttered for Spring maintenance and could not be brought back up fast enough.
9) demand wasn't accurately calculated due to growing Texas population
7) Shorted electric prices? I don't fully understand this, but certainly could see it happening. This is criminal.
8) ERCOT members don't live in Texas, and therefor decision making can be more easily influenced (possible?)
9) All electric homes created by past federal regulations which created more demand as opposed to gas/electric combination construction.
Any other ideas?