SchizoAg said:

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richardag said:

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The Nat Gas bill in '78 gave sweeping power to the feds to regulate nat. gas. The idiot believed the lies about known reserves. Due to his legislation 10s of thousands of homes in north Texas alone built in that time frame were barred from installation of nat, gas heating, stoves and ovens.

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What legislation are you referring to that barred the installation of natural gas for those homes?

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http://naturalgas.org/regulation/history/


The market was distorted by continual federal regulations. Through regulation companies were barred from gas line installation to large areas in North Dallas and elsewhere. The problems were exacerbated by President Carter's insistence we had a shortage of natural gas. It wasn't until deregulation of the industry in the mid 80s pipeline companies began restoring access.

The reason I bought an existing home back then was explicitly because all new homes in DFW were all electric.

ETA: last post by me on this topic as it is off topic, if you wish to continue start a different thread.

45-70Ag said:

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WTF

Frequency of black outs in Washington County increasing. It was 20 minutes off every hour, now we went 30 minutes and off again. I just hope I have enough firewood to supplement the down times through this. 10 degrees outside with a 12 mph north wind.

Woke up to very cold bedroom in Magnolia. No idea how long it's been turned off. Worried about the pool! And no way I can live in this for a day, much less, weeks

Current situation

I'd be interested to know how they forecast a capacity increase (repairs?) but even more interested in how they forecast a capacity decrease.

rynning said:

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I'd be interested to know how they forecast a capacity increase (repairs?) but even more interested in how they forecast a capacity decrease.

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All about data and probabilities. Forecasting in extreme events is difficult due to the lack of real data. You are left with educated guesses.

MaxCapacity = (production @ ideal conditions)
realCapacity = (MaxCapacity - Sumof(allThatCouldandHasGoneWrong))

Now define the Sum of all that has gone wrong and can go wrong. I could see this being exceptionally complicated.

PearlJammin said:

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eric76 said:

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PearlJammin said:

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This is a power generation problem, not a power line problem. Green energy is not working right now. Just accept it and move on.

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Around here (Texas Panhandle), power issues are primarily that of power lines and secondarily of issues at substations.

One good ice storm can knock power out to many people for days.

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ARE YOU SERIOUSLY BLAMING THE CURRENT BLACKOUTS ON FKING TREES AND DOWNED POWER LINES?

There's a chance people are going to freeze to death for the simple reason that this state cannot meet energy demand due to the failure of renewables in an event like this. You have a serious lack of empathy and keep trying to steer the conversation away from that failure. Grow up and recognize this problem for what it is. You can remain obtuse, but this board recognizes what you are doing.

Your ideas of people going out and buying millions of generators to make up for that failure are completely stupid. Suggestions of a wood burning stove are not practical. Your climate controlled utopia works in a very small part of Texas. To even mention swamp coolers is downright laughable. But that's your way of looking down your nose on the rest of us, isn't it?

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I'm no fan of wind generators, but I'd be far more likely to assume that shutting down coal plants is probably a far larger part of the problem. According to one source, in 2017, Texas generated 32% of it's power with coal, but this dropped to 20% by 2019. That seems to me to be a major reduction in power generation. Why do you think that wind generators are the larger issue?

We are having lots of outages up here, but they seem to be largely, possibly all, the result of power line problems. I must admit that like many people, I often look back at my own experiences for guidance.

https://www.outagemap-xcelenergy.com/

As for what is practical and what is not, I know people for whom wood burning stoves is is a large part of their heat every year. For some, it is their only source of heat in their homes. Every time we have electrical problems in the winter, they look smarter and smarter.

If people are freezing to death because the power is out for only a few hours, doesn't that kind of prove my point that we need to take more responsibility for ourselves? In one ice storm a few years ago, we had people without power for a week or two and I don't know of anyone who died from it. I guess that people in the Panhandle are a hell of a lot better at taking personal responsibility than those in the cities.

By the way, some people are saying that their power has been off for hours.

I may be wrong, but when they are doing the rotating blackouts, don't they typically turn the electricity back on after a little while? For those who haven't had electricity for hours, is that because of the blackouts or might it be because of power lines?

Our master bathroom has exterior walls on the north, south and west sides. That damn place is cold this morning

Mom in DeSoto and power is out again.

Her concern now is the 40 year old swimming pool.

eric76 said:

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By the way, some people are saying that their power has been off for hours.

I may be wrong, but when they are doing the rotating blackouts, don't they typically turn the electricity back on after a little while? For those who haven't had electricity for hours, is that because of the blackouts or might it be because of power lines?

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Our notification was the blackouts were to run 15 to 45 minutes, but we will see when it is our turn. Other people I know are out due to damage to lines.

Wonder if the big manufacturing plants, like GM are still operating today. Those businesses need to be shut down until the power situation gets better.

Shanked Punt said:

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Wonder if the big manufacturing plants, like GM are still operating today. Those businesses need to be shut down until the power situation gets better.

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If we are in EEA-3, wouldn't they already be shut down in EEA-2?

Are grocery stores even open today? Not that I'm going anywhere...........I'm about to walk to the backside of our property and haul half a cord of wood up to the house by hand in this crap. Reminds me too much of my childhood in Chicago and one of the reasons i left that place.

30wedge said:

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eric76 said:

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By the way, some people are saying that their power has been off for hours.

I may be wrong, but when they are doing the rotating blackouts, don't they typically turn the electricity back on after a little while? For those who haven't had electricity for hours, is that because of the blackouts or might it be because of power lines?

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Our notification was the blackouts were to run 15 to 45 minutes, but we will see when it is our turn. Other people I know are out due to damage to lines.

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Our power went out about 2:30am came back on about 5am. Thankfully the pool pump works and not damaged, hard to believe.

eric76 said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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Wonder if the big manufacturing plants, like GM are still operating today. Those businesses need to be shut down until the power situation gets better.

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If we are in EEA-3, wouldn't they already be shut down in EEA-2?

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Depends if the plant signed the contract to agree to be interrupted if level 2 was reached. Even if they didn't, the big non-essential users need to be the first to go to allow people to heat their homes.

Why do the gas or why did the gas plants trip off??

itsyourboypookie said:

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Made this. Tweet it at Crenshaw

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Did you mean 12,000 MWh instead of 12,000 KWh?

According to https://www.electricchoice.com/blog/texas-energy-power-grid-101/ the total generating capability of ERCOT is 77,000 MWh of Electricity.

I can see where a loss of 12,000 MWh out of 77,000 MWh of capacity would have serous affects, but not a loss of 12,000 KWh out of 77,000 MWh of capacity.

richardag said:

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45-70Ag said:

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WTF

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If I'm reading this correct, the DOE prohibited ERCOT from using resources unless they declared EEA3 (and thereby instituted rolling blackouts)

MarkoRamius said:

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I just want to know WHY Texas can't handle two days of peak demand? This is ridiculous that we even have to entertain rolling blackouts.

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Deregulation

Griddy customers are really taking it in the shorts now with the wholesale prices hitting the cap. $9 kWh has got to hurt.

BurnetAggie99 said:

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The updated demands:


Dafuq happened to the green line? Does that mean they just shut down service to thousands of homes?

#BidensBlackouts