Have had 10 or 11 blackouts since 2 am in CS. Every hour it cuts off for anywhere between 30-60 minutes, then only stays on for about 45 minutes. Have spoken to many people in B/CS that haven't lost power at all. Even my brother hasn't lost power in Wylie.

Cassius said:

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My son has been out 12 hours.

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Doesn't that imply actual line damage? Are not rolling blackouts supposed to be limiited to 3 hours at the very most?

Need a movement that all it does is research and arrange the recall, firing, or primary of any official that is behind stupid and destructive policies. Something like that old `Moral Majority' did with a little bit of success in the 80's. But refine it for the times.

Bingo.

I'm on the same timeline as you, I'm in the M streets.

We haven't been neglecting gas at all. There's more gas fired generation on ERCOT and more gas runs on ERCOT than ever before.

The problem is in an event like this our infrastructure is struggling. Gas delivery. The plants themselves. All of it.

5 minutes again here we go

jrdaustin said:

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mazag08 said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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Here is a good thread of what is going on. Wind may be an issue, but the delivery of natural gas is causing major problems.

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Next time find an unbiased source and not a career academic who's entire life has been spent studying slanted science in an effort to force feed our country an agenda.

Quote:

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Jesse leads the Princeton ZERO Lab - the Zero carbon Energy systems Research and Optimization Laboratory -- which conducts research to improve decision-making to accelerate rapid, affordable, and effective transitions to net-zero carbon energy systems. The ZERO Lab has three main areas of research

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Then his comments make more sense and deserve some clarification.

First, he is correct that there are currently problems with power generation both on gas and wind. But to imply by saying that there are "some" problems with wind and that they are much less than gas is misleading at best.

First, not "some". Fully 50% of wind turbines in west Texas are currently offline due to icing, and the number is rising.

Second, the only reason it is "second" as an issue to the gas issues is that thankfully we have much less wind generated power than gas generated power. The problem would have been magnified exponentially if we were MORE dependent on wind generated power.

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Overall, the problem across the board is a piss poor job of preparing for this sort of event. NG generation needs to handle a cold snap of this magnitude in this region of the country, so does wind. That is completely independent of the energy source. It can be done.

No line damage in my area supposedly but no power for almost 6 hours. No estimated power restoration either.

At this point it is incompetence. We should have spent years building up reliable energy sources in addition to wind and solar but energy Nazis won't allow it.

Ag_of_08 said:

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Why do we refuse to look at nuclear alternatives? Is their any actual reason other then fear mongering?

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Cost is a big one.

Shanked Punt said:

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jrdaustin said:

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mazag08 said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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Here is a good thread of what is going on. Wind may be an issue, but the delivery of natural gas is causing major problems.

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Next time find an unbiased source and not a career academic who's entire life has been spent studying slanted science in an effort to force feed our country an agenda.

Quote:

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Jesse leads the Princeton ZERO Lab - the Zero carbon Energy systems Research and Optimization Laboratory -- which conducts research to improve decision-making to accelerate rapid, affordable, and effective transitions to net-zero carbon energy systems. The ZERO Lab has three main areas of research

---

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Then his comments make more sense and deserve some clarification.

First, he is correct that there are currently problems with power generation both on gas and wind. But to imply by saying that there are "some" problems with wind and that they are much less than gas is misleading at best.

First, not "some". Fully 50% of wind turbines in west Texas are currently offline due to icing, and the number is rising.

Second, the only reason it is "second" as an issue to the gas issues is that thankfully we have much less wind generated power than gas generated power. The problem would have been magnified exponentially if we were MORE dependent on wind generated power.

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Overall, the problem across the board is a piss poor job of preparing for this sort of event. NG generation needs to handle a cold snap of this magnitude in this region of the country, so does wind. That is completely independent of the energy source. It can be done.

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Then it needs to be clearly defined and then pushed as something to be done. 2011 was just before the full onset of social media. You could probably mobilized and light the necessary fire under feet now to get officials to order built or methods setup necessary to meet what you are describing. If it can be outlined clearly. What lesson was ignored in 2011 might be able to be used as a club now in 2021 with social media and irate customers such as on the thread.

Quote:

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Why do we refuse to look at nuclear alternatives? Is their any actual reason other then fear mongering?

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Do you wanna pony up billions of dollars and wait ten years before you can even start getting a return, knowing the whole while it could get shut down at the drop of a hat?

No?

No one else does either.

How much more over the span of a reactor's life does it cost to run than a natural gas plant? Is the up front investment that much greater than fuel costs?

V8Aggie said:

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I don't get it. I've lived in over 20 homes and they all had gas heaters. Am I missing something? I mean everyone's AC runs off electricity so even if half of us gave electric furnaces how are we going to put a dent in the grid?

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Yes. Resistance heating is huge power draw. Bigger than running an A/C compressor depending on the setup. A/C compressors also cycle on and off, so not every one is on at the same time by pure chance. With this cold, the resistance coils are likely going non-stop trying to keep up in a lot of places, so there's a high chance they're all on at the same time.

Are we not ponying up billions of tax dollars in subsidies for this "green" BS that produces far less, and is far less reliable?

If we're going to spend the money, spend the money.

Quote:

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Overall, the problem across the board is a piss poor job of preparing for this sort of event. NG generation needs to handle a cold snap of this magnitude in this region of the country, so does wind. That is completely independent of the energy source. It can be done.

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In many cases not without triggering a New Source Review. Thanks again overregulation and the laws of unintended consequences.

And some folks <cough /you> cheer this lunacy on.

Quote:

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Are we not paying up billions of tax dollars in subsidies for this "green" BS that produces far less, and is far less reliable?

If we're going to spend the money, spend the money.

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I'm talking about private investment, since we all know the government isn't capable of strategic planning.

titan said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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jrdaustin said:

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mazag08 said:

---

Shanked Punt said:

---

Here is a good thread of what is going on. Wind may be an issue, but the delivery of natural gas is causing major problems.

---

Next time find an unbiased source and not a career academic who's entire life has been spent studying slanted science in an effort to force feed our country an agenda.

Quote:

---

Jesse leads the Princeton ZERO Lab - the Zero carbon Energy systems Research and Optimization Laboratory -- which conducts research to improve decision-making to accelerate rapid, affordable, and effective transitions to net-zero carbon energy systems. The ZERO Lab has three main areas of research

---

---

Then his comments make more sense and deserve some clarification.

First, he is correct that there are currently problems with power generation both on gas and wind. But to imply by saying that there are "some" problems with wind and that they are much less than gas is misleading at best.

First, not "some". Fully 50% of wind turbines in west Texas are currently offline due to icing, and the number is rising.

Second, the only reason it is "second" as an issue to the gas issues is that thankfully we have much less wind generated power than gas generated power. The problem would have been magnified exponentially if we were MORE dependent on wind generated power.

---

Overall, the problem across the board is a piss poor job of preparing for this sort of event. NG generation needs to handle a cold snap of this magnitude in this region of the country, so does wind. That is completely independent of the energy source. It can be done.

---

Then it needs to be clearly defined and then pushed as something to be done. 2011 was just before the full onset of social media. You could probably mobilized and light the necessary fire under feet now to get officials to order built or methods setup necessary to meet what you are describing. If it can be outlined clearly. What lesson was ignored in 2011 might be able to be used as a club now in 2021 with social media and irate customers such as on the thread.

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I fully agree with that.

This is from 2014 covering a good deal of what happened in 2011, with a lesson learned that likely never was carried out.
https://www.powermag.com/prepare-your-renewable-plant-for-cold-weather-operations/

Quote:

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Wind generators in places like Canada typically install "cold weather packages" to extend temperature ranges, using up to 200 kW to 300 kW of parasitic power per turbine at conditions below 20C for heating components such as the nacelle space, yaw drive and pitch motors, and the gearbox, slip ring, controller and control cabinet, and battery. GE's 2010-introduced Cold Weather Extreme package for its 2.5 x l turbine, for example, ensures operations in temperatures to 30C and a "survival mode" to 40C.

According to NERC, "it does not appear that [cold weather packages] were used in the Southwest" during the 2011 event. It recommends that all entities investigate the purchase of these packages in preparation for extreme cold events.

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Ag_of_08 said:

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How much more over the span of a reactor's life does it cost to run than a natural gas plant? Is the up front investment that much greater than fuel costs?

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The upfront investment is huge, but the real risk is in permitting and bureaucracy. It is very easy, and likely, to experience delays and other problems that increase the cost of construction. Think Keystone XL level political football. It will take a long time to permit and build, and any liberal administration could kill it or severely delay it on a whim. It simply isn't worth the headache.

How much does a nuke plant cost? Here is the last one in Texas.

Quote:

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When construction on Comanche Peak began in 1974, TU Electric (the former name of EFH) estimated that it would take five years to build and cost $779 million. It took 15 years and $9.1 billion

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Source: DMN

Sasappis said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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Why do we refuse to look at nuclear alternatives? Is their any actual reason other then fear mongering?

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Politics and not in my back yard. It is just that simple.

Bush actually set us on a course for renewed nuclear and deserves a lot of credit for it. Obama killed it. Trump somewhat helped, but did not do enough.

The refusal of so called "environmentalists" to embrace nuclear is just absurd.

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Decision needs to be taken out of the hands of Presidents. Needs to be local; maybe even municipal and not state, whether you use one.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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How much more over the span of a reactor's life does it cost to run than a natural gas plant? Is the up front investment that much greater than fuel costs?

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The upfront investment is huge, but the real risk is in permitting and bureaucracy. It is very easy, and likely, to experience delays and other problems that increase the cost of construction. Think Keystone XL level political football. It will take a long time to permit and build, and any liberal administration could kill it or severely delay it on a whim. It simply isn't worth the headache.

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So it's all 100% fear mongering and political, got it.

We tried to expand it by 3,400 MW and got told as high as $20 billion

Your posts have been interesting but for a layman such as I - hard to follow. Here is what I think you have said:

1. Wind energy production has been substantially reduced because of the cold temps.
2. This puts greater demand on remaining forms of generation. Gas, Coal, and STP (don't know what STP is).
3. ERCOT tripped all their Coal and STP production - Tripped as in used or off line? Either way - no longer on line.
4. This puts big pressure on the remaining gas generation production.
5. There are some price caps in place - as in people have signed contracts for the cost of their electricity that is now mismatched with current cost of production as current natural gas prices??? Not sure I got this right.

6. The EROC should have started shedding (dropping) load late last night (maybe 10 meg watts) and that would have prevented the much larger shedding that occurred later. Was this mis-management OR a play to save massive cash losses related to number 5 above?
7. If the EROC had shed load earlier, they would have been able to keep more people on line and recover customers quicker. But with the being upside down on the cost of power generation vs what power is being sold at this creates massive losses for multiple large parties.
8. This loss is exacerbated by parities that have short positions (edited) on the cost of natural gas and parities that have LOC's (letters if credit) with large electricity generators.

AS SUCH - shedding more customers for longer periods of time is a way of mitigating the economic losses.

Please correct me if my summary is off in multiple areas. No pride here - just trying to understand.

Somehow the Kinder pipeline fits in as well. If that fall short - then larger scale blackout?