DallasAg 94 said:

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eric76 said:

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By the way, some people are saying that their power has been off for hours.

I may be wrong, but when they are doing the rotating blackouts, don't they typically turn the electricity back on after a little while? For those who haven't had electricity for hours, is that because of the blackouts or might it be because of power lines?

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Our power went off twice for right at 30 mins each.

You can go back and look at when our 3rd outage went. I was shivering when the power came back on, but seemed to come back on right at 7am (3.5 hrs off?).

House temp is just now back to 60F (after 90 mins on)

Our neighborhood has underground power lines.

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My sister says that their power has gone out several times for about 20 minutes at a time.

gonemaroon said:

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A few of the rumors I have heard is that Kinder is having pipeline issues and since ERCOT has tripped all the solid fuel (coal and 50% of STP) ERCOT is freaking the **** out. They don't want to put load back on the system because they fear total black out. So we are relying on a fragile gas pipeline right now to get us through this.

ERCOT ran credit under this situation of price caps for 3 days straight and the risk to the market was in the 10's of billions and the powers that play in this space made calls all the way up to POTUS. Massive load shedding seems to be the bail out (opinion of everyone I know in the space) to the shorts in the market that were all going to go under - shorts include all the REP's. Most of the traders think the grid is trying to bail out Vistra and NRG through black outs. Even the likes of Morgan Stanley have billions in credit risk on these companies and wind farms, solar farms, etc. They provide LOC's for many as do all the other banks. Lots of players in the mix.

That's all I have for now.

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Is this STP?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Texas_Nuclear_Generating_Station

Thx.

Aggie_2463 said:

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Power prices have dropped considerably since the green wave of solar and wind has come into play the last several years and with that companies were forced to close down coal / gas plants due to economic feasibility and also EPA regulations.

Companies have had to make that decision to survive in the economic climate and under epa regulations. Now the ugly truth has finally appeared that the wind / solar can't support us. We need coal and gas. Also, the point about these outages taking place in the winter... it's called forced outages. Nobody "plans" to take an outage in the dead of winter unless there are certain circumstances. Sometimes the failure of equipment and maintenance needed dictates that. Trust me when I say we'd like to do outages all in spring or fall and never have forced outages. I'm in outage mgmt so I know.

I personally just hope this is a wake up call to the government, and the green new deal folks.

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I may be wrong, but isn't some of the problems with coal plants being uneconomical due to the increasingly onerous environmental regulations being forced upon them?

We're in west Fort Worth. No power for 7 1/2 hours now.

Matt Hooper said:

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Your posts have been interesting but for a layman such as I - hard to follow. Here is what I think you have said:

1. Wind energy production has been substantially reduced because of the cold temps.
2. This puts greater demand on remaining forms of generation. Gas, Coal, and STP (don't know what STP is).
3. ERCOT tripped all their Coal and STP production - Tripped as in used or off line? Either way - no longer on line.
4. This puts big pressure on the remaining gas generation production.
5. There are some price caps in place - as in people have signed contracts for the cost of their electricity that is now mismatched with current cost of production as current natural gas prices??? Not sure I got this right.

6. The EROC should have started shedding (dropping) load late last night (maybe 10 meg watts) and that would have prevented the much larger shedding that occurred later. Was this mis-management OR a play to save massive cash losses related to number 5 above?
7. If the EROC had shed load earlier, they would have been able to keep more people on line and recover customers quicker. But with the being upside down on the cost of power generation vs what power is being sold at this creates massive losses for multiple large parties.
8. This loss is exacerbated by parities that have short positions (edited) on the cost of natural gas and parities that have LOC's (letters if credit) with large electricity generators.

AS SUCH - shedding more customers for longer periods of time is a way of mitigating the economic losses.

Please correct me if my summary is off in multiple areas. No pride here - just trying to understand.

Somehow the Kinder pipeline fits in as well. If that fall short - then larger scale blackout?

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I'll take a stab at some of these for you.
1) Yes
2) Yes -- South Texas Project, a large nuclear plant in Matagorda
3) My thoughts, and read my post above on the bottom of pg 14... Circuit breakers to protect plant equipment. I asked above if we know why they cant get them back online.
4) Yes
5) Yes, free market electricity is capped at $9000/MW. These are spot market prices, 15 minute intervals. Base load is bought and sold in futures and under longer contracts at lower prices. This is price you pay when you need a few extra MW. Fuel is also typically bought on long term contracts. They can get more on the spot market but it's tougher to come by. Also NG is legally bound to go to residential before it goes to industrial users. Residential is using more obviously right now. Then you get frozen equipment which reduces capacity. Ever had a propane camping stove stop working on a cold morning because the bottle of propane froze up? Similar stuff happens in natural gas handling infrastructure. This can go all the way back to the wellhead, well freezes up and the gas quits flowing out of the ground.
6) Gonna leave this for GoneMaroon
7) They would bring the customers back. Without users there is no reason to generate power at any price. We don't have grid storage. The high spot prices are because the power is needed. With capacaity and no need prices drop. Again most of their fuel is contractually purchased well in advance. There will still be some NG price issues with the peaking plants that may not have long term gas contracts in place.... But I can't see any of that affecting coal, nuclear, etc. I'm on the teetering edge of my knowledge here.
8) Not gonna attempt to touch that oen.

Anyone else care to chime in?

gonemaroon said:

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I know exactly what happened the grid operator was supposed to curtail load before it got bad and he didn't do it. I was watching it live.

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RIght. I get that part. But any clue why those plants can't get back online? Physical damage to equipment?

Ok, saw your post about WallStreet... ho-le cheet... say it aint so...

Yes - South Texas Nuclear

Thanks.

Don't buy those broken parts at Lowes either. You order them from Westinghouse and GE and wait for them to be built.

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Correct me if I am wrong but it sounds like "triggering a New Source Review" may be a somewhat burdensome regulation?

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yes.

It's intent was to keep operators from increasing the life cycle of their older dirtier plants by making upgrades.

It quickly became a weapon to hit operators with and prevent them from routine maintenance. Once triggered it forces new permitting processes, which can lower capacity or even shut a plant down.

Plants can trip from cold from burst boiler feed water pipe or coolant pipe, or frozen instrument air line, or iced over air inlet, or too cold lube oil, etc.

gonemaroon said:

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And the majority of the generation the grid operator tripped off line are older coal plants my assumption is that they are more sensitive to frequency degradations. So now it appears that NRG, CPS, LCRA and LS Power all lost coal plants in the middle of a gas emergency.

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Can someone explain this to me? Why would you turn a power plant off if you're having trouble meeting the load?

Plants are electromagnetically locked into the grid frequency. If load outpaces generation frequency drops. Turbines are only designed to run within a few % of 60 Hz. If grid frequency drops too much they'll trip.

Once a plant stops in freezing weather, lots of things can keep it offline.

Could be as basic as a conveyor belt freezing up.

In 2011 a pressure sensing tube froze and took down a new big plant.

For those out due to equipment failure due to weather or grid issues, as we don't have the capacity to handle the current demand, seems like the decision is just to keep those people down given the statements from CenterPoint saying if you're without power now, expect it to be down for quite awhile.

lost my stars said:

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gonemaroon said:

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And the majority of the generation the grid operator tripped off line are older coal plants my assumption is that they are more sensitive to frequency degradations. So now it appears that NRG, CPS, LCRA and LS Power all lost coal plants in the middle of a gas emergency.

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Can someone explain this to me? Why would you turn a power plant off if you're having trouble meeting the load?

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Like Zobel said, they are all locked together.

Think about the load on the grid like your lawnmower. If you push into grass that's too deep, too much load, your mower slows down. You can overcome this with more fuel, and therefore more power to the blade, or you reduce the load. If you don't the mower goes down.

In that sense, the entire electrical grid is one giant lawnmower. Too much load and you start slowing the whole thing down. But unlike your mower this thing is carefully designed to only run at that speed. So checks are in place and individual plants will trip offline to protect themselves. You can quickly get a cascading failure that takes the whole system down.

Shanked Punt said:

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For those out due to equipment failure due to weather or grid issues, as we don't have the capacity to handle the current demand, seems like the decision is just to keep those people down given the statements from CenterPoint saying if you're without power now, expect it to be down for quite awhile.

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One explanation was that they are prioritizing portions of the grid that service hospitals and similar high priority locations. Center Point said that once the power capacity dropped so far, it was no longer feasible to do rolling blackouts while also keeping that prioritization. Not sure exactly how much capacity they needed to fulfill the rolling blackout plan.

gonemaroon said:

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The statement of 10's of billions of credit risk is a fact. The generators in particular GDF Suez lobbied for a $9,000 price cap. When I started in ERCOT it was $999 for reference. GDF Suez always manipulated the market and I sued them (PUCT granted them all sorts of legal rights to manipulate the market) and manipulate the futures exchange. PUCT allowed it and loved them manipulating price they sponsored it. GDF pushed for higher and higher prices and the other gens loved it got on board. I lost my lawsuit but FERC saw it and tasked their ass in PJM and MISO. GDF saw the risk of manipulating and sold all of their assets to guess who? Dynegy then Vistra - Vistra just bigger and bigger. Guess who has 4,000MW of plants in outage this week? Vistra.

Anyhow point being the gens wanted more volatility because they could handle it but the REPS couldn't. The fake manipulation bankrupted the REPS and forced them to sell to guess who? Vistra and NRG.

All the credit of frozen wind farms, REPS buying $7500 power. NRG and Vistra being stuck short. My friends and I thought Vistra was on the hook for a billion dollar upcoming loss. A black out zeros that loss out.

Lots of rambling but the credit risk was designed by the generators.

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I'm really enjoying your posts in this thread. What is your day job? I understand if not wanting share.

FAT SEXY said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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For those out due to equipment failure due to weather or grid issues, as we don't have the capacity to handle the current demand, seems like the decision is just to keep those people down given the statements from CenterPoint saying if you're without power now, expect it to be down for quite awhile.

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Fuhhhhh.. how long is quite awhile?

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Center Point punted "quite awhile". Ultimately it depends on how quickly the generation capacity increases back to normal. Looking at the ERCOT predictions for capacity, I wouldn't plan on having power active until tomorrow at the earliest if I was planning.

titan said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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Don''t know why the thumbs down. Glad the Governor is involving himself directly in this and gathering information. If some order is going to be needed to over-ride something, changes are Abbott has the means.

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Abbott of course is sugar coating if not outright lying about the situation. The grid failed due to ERCOTs incompetence more so than it has to do with the weather.

lost my stars said:

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gonemaroon said:

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And the majority of the generation the grid operator tripped off line are older coal plants my assumption is that they are more sensitive to frequency degradations. So now it appears that NRG, CPS, LCRA and LS Power all lost coal plants in the middle of a gas emergency.

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Can someone explain this to me? Why would you turn a power plant off if you're having trouble meeting the load?

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I'm not a EE, but it's my understanding that when you put more demand on, it takes more energy to spin the generator, obviously. If it slows down too much, it can damage AC motors that are receiving the electricity since the frequency is lowered. It's all designed for 60 cycles per second. They start drawing more current and can overheat.

gonemaroon said:

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XXVII - I'm a professional ERCOT trader / been doing it for 20 years. My entire network of friends are the same / we've worked everywhere in the industry doing every odds and ins job. It's hard for me to post too much as I'm busy trying to manage my day job / but I'm trying to give y'all some facts and perspectives from someone who was watching the rodeo show.

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Appreciate your posts.

I'm just a tad concerned this won't be approved now.

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Jan. 13, 2021
Texas may soon get authority over the disposal of ash from coal-fired power plants, a change that could insulate coal companies from tougher rules expected under a Biden administration.

A proposal introduced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency last month would allow Texas to regulate coal ash instead of the federal agency. The move comes just after the EPA this year weakened the Obama-era rule on coal ash pollution amid other rollbacks and rule-making maneuvers cementing the Trump administration's environmental agenda.

Coal ash is a byproduct of burning coal for power generation. The ash is typically dumped into detention ponds or pits and can leach toxic chemicals, such as arsenic, lead and mercury, into groundwater. All of the coal power plants in Texas have coal ash disposal sites that are leaking contaminants, according to data analyzed by the Environmental Integrity project in 2019.

President-elect Joe Biden's reported pick to head the EPA, Michael Regan, currently leads North Carolina's environmental agency and has a record of cracking down on coal ash pollution: In North Carolina, he fought to obtain a huge settlement over an 80 million ton coal ash cleanup by Duke Energy - the largest coal ash contamination cleanup in U.S. history.

But if Texas gets authority to implement the coal ash rules before Biden's new EPA chief has a chance to strengthen the standards, the program could act as a temporary shield for the industry because the state would need to work through a lengthy process to modify already-issued registrations to coal companies.
"It's always better for industry if the state has control instead of EPA," said Abel Russ, a senior attorney for the Environmental Integrity Project who helped draft the organization's comments on Texas' coal ash program. "States are typically more favorably inclined to what industry wants. That's true not just in Texas, but across the country."

Oklahoma and Georgia are the only two states that currently have approval to operate the EPA's coal ash program. Texas' program won't be effective until at least February, when the public comment period ends.
The Texas Mining and Reclamation Association, an industry group that represents coal and other mining industries in the state, supports the proposal, arguing that state-level environmental regulation is more effective.
"This system is designed to give decision-making authority to a level of government that is closer to the people and recognizes that states are in a better position to address specific problems as they arise," said Michael Nasi, an Austin lawyer, on behalf of the industry group.
Getting control from the EPA
High-profile accidents involving coal ash in recent years, highlighted by the failure of a coal ash impoundment in Tennessee that spilled a billion gallons of coal ash slurry, put pressure on the EPA to introduce tougher standards. Before 2015, there were no requirements for coal companies to properly line the pits where they dumped the toxic ash - nearly 130 million tons of which was generated in 2014.

Under former President Barack Obama, the EPA for the first time introduced standards on what experts say are poorly lined pits and ponds containing coal ash across the nation. But in 2016, the EPA under President Donald Trump began to delay and then walk back that proposal, and the agency was soon directed by Congress to create a program allowing states to operate the federal standards instead of the EPA. That set off a multi-year effort in Texas to wrangle control away from the federal agency, but first, Texas had to change its rules.

During the 2017 legislative session, state lawmakers earmarked $390,000 per year to fund four full-time Texas Commission on Environmental Quality employees to seek the federal approval for a state program they would then manage. In 2019, the TCEQ created the coal ash management program, which became effective in May of 2020.

Finally, in September, Texas was ready to apply to the EPA for approval of its newly created coal ash regulation, which would issue state registrations to companies that last for the life of a facility.
Molly Block, an EPA spokesperson, said the agency is required to approve the applications from states that want to take over coal ash regulation if their application meets federal coal ash standards. And while the EPA said it retains authority to require Texas to change its standards if stronger federal rules are implemented later, companies that already have a state registration would not need to meet any new standards until the state requires them to.

Texas would first need to revise the state's program to meet tougher federal requirements, according to the TCEQ. Then, the agency would need to complete a separate process to modify the registration for each of the 17 facilities that produce and dispose of coal ash a potentially time-consuming task.

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Because coal plants are racist, or something.

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One analysis of coal ash pollution data by environmental groups found that people of color and low-income residents are more likely than white or wealthier residents to live within three miles of the most contaminated coal ash sites.

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It's kind of a grey area really

sam callahan said:

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Quote:

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Correct me if I am wrong but it sounds like "triggering a New Source Review" may be a somewhat burdensome regulation?

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yes.

It's intent was to keep operators from increasing the life cycle of their older dirtier plants by making upgrades.

It quickly became a weapon to hit operators with and prevent them from routine maintenance. Once triggered it forces new permitting processes, which can lower capacity or even shut a plant down.

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Thanks for the reply.

Live between Waco and mcgregor and it's been out since 8am. I'm guessing there's no chance it comes back on today.

halfastros81 said:

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I suspect Some people will get fired over this. Dangerous situation for elderly and sick folks. If past experience is any indicator the wrong people often take the fall tho.

Iv'e got a 92 yr old living with me and it was 50 degrees inside before the sun came out. Just parked her by the fireplace. She just came to live here 2 weeks ago and I didn't have a big enough generator to run the air
Movers . Gas furnace but it still won't work without power. That one's on me. She can't fire her son.... LOL.

Thank the Lord for good old natural gas. Gas stove has been a savior at least.

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I mean this sincerely as I cared for my ailing Mother for six years, good luck and prayers sent. God bless.