Finally have power at our 25 unit apartment complex in Comanche. First time since the initial crash.
Rolling blackouts in Texas
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Last: 3 yr ago by Whitetail
Lost power again at 6 this evening. Just came back. I'll take the 4.5 hours over 48. Warm night tonight for a change. Keeping all you folks without power in our thoughts and prayers.
A lot of people including myself have had power for a bit. Are the rolling blackouts over?
don't jinx it!....but ercot seems to be gaining and maintaining capacity...for now..
Aggies2009 said:
A lot of people including myself have had power for a bit. Are the rolling blackouts over?
Maybe for some people until morning. Right now the wind is producing 3600 MW, but if it follows its normal pattern, it will drop down to 600-800 MW by 9 am tomorrow.
9 AM tomorrow wind should be making 5GW or so. Forecast between 5 and 6 GW through midnight tomorrow.
http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/DAY_AHEADCOP_HSL.html?uniquenessFactor=1613627300299
Actual demand is probably as high now as Saturday. And Friday is going to be nearly as cold as Sunday. So "real" demand is wont be met until after the real cold event is over. :/
http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/DAY_AHEADCOP_HSL.html?uniquenessFactor=1613627300299
Actual demand is probably as high now as Saturday. And Friday is going to be nearly as cold as Sunday. So "real" demand is wont be met until after the real cold event is over. :/
Lol,at someone calling texas energy a free market. ****, amerikans dont even know what that word means anymore.BuddysBud said:
Utilities should be considered vital to nation security. The phony deregulation in Texas was just a way for someone to take a cut of the electricity market. Utilities have been regulated monopolies for a reason. They still are regulated monopolies, but now we get to pay a middleman for mailing/emailing a bill and cashing a check/accepting a bank transfer. These middlemen add no value but add an unnecessary expense. Of course, they do give the illusion that consumers have some sort of choice. We are reminded of this every 6-18 months when we get to muddle through conflicting intentionally confusing power plans to avoid paying an outrageous amount for electricity (thereby subsidizing those which cheap introductory plans).
A decade ago I read an article about Texas not keeping up with increasing demand from population growth and increasing use of electronics. The article suggested that keeping prices low because of the phony free market was partly to blame.
It seems like the possibility of running short of power has been known for a while but little was done to increase capacity as much as what has been needed. Didn't ERCOT threaten rolling blackouts during a heatwave last summer?
Perhaps Texas citizens, influenced by a slick marketing campaign, chose to have a fake free market rather than reliable power.
http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/real_time_system_conditions.html
Looks like we have 8000mw on day over day - I suspect this to be much healthier over the next 12 hours
Looks like we have 8000mw on day over day - I suspect this to be much healthier over the next 12 hours
gonemaroon said:
http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/real_time_system_conditions.html
Looks like we have 8000mw on day over day - I suspect this to be much healthier over the next 12 hours
Thanks a bunch for the inside information during this whole thing! I for one really appreciate it, as I knew very little about the specifics of any of this prior to last weekend.
Also, when do you sleep? You have been posting all week seemingly at all hours of the day and night!
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
I'm assuming he works ercot real-time night shift like me. (I'm wecc tho)
Looking MUCH better this AM than ~48 hours ago.
That dark red county in the middle is Mason county, still at around 85% customer outage.
That dark red county in the middle is Mason county, still at around 85% customer outage.
My in-laws are between llano and mason , haven't had power since Sunday and it's 35 in their house.
They can't get to a paved road, they're really in bfe. They moved the cows to another place that won't have water issues last week but the goats are still there and they're totally out of power and water. They have one generator that's being used for a variety of thing but they have to catch melting snow from their roof tops for water for the goats. Without power, the well their water supply is on provides nothing.
They can't get to a paved road, they're really in bfe. They moved the cows to another place that won't have water issues last week but the goats are still there and they're totally out of power and water. They have one generator that's being used for a variety of thing but they have to catch melting snow from their roof tops for water for the goats. Without power, the well their water supply is on provides nothing.
My team and I work ATC during big events. I slept two intervals of about 3 hours. I'm pretty beat up, but there hasn't been too many transactions going on in ERCOT since the event. Some wind farms frozen up that needed to buy back some shorts. Some generators that broke but once the prices went to the automatic cap of $9,000 all trading pretty much stopped.
Took a couple hours a day to talk to reporters / industry specific there's not that many folks that know much about electricity markets.
I wish I could have been posting more on here but just been too busy, but if anyone has any questions please ask I'll have a free 30 minutes this morning and will post some stuff on here. Let me post the supply demand graphs and the generators
Took a couple hours a day to talk to reporters / industry specific there's not that many folks that know much about electricity markets.
I wish I could have been posting more on here but just been too busy, but if anyone has any questions please ask I'll have a free 30 minutes this morning and will post some stuff on here. Let me post the supply demand graphs and the generators
Progress occurring
gonemaroon said:
My team and I work ATC during big events. I slept two intervals of about 3 hours. I'm pretty beat up, but there hasn't been too many transactions going on in ERCOT since the event. Some wind farms frozen up that needed to buy back some shorts. Some generators that broke but once the prices went to the automatic cap of $9,000 all trading pretty much stopped.
Took a couple hours a day to talk to reporters / industry specific there's not that many folks that know much about electricity markets.
I wish I could have been posting more on here but just been too busy, but if anyone has any questions please ask I'll have a free 30 minutes this morning and will post some stuff on here. Let me post the supply demand graphs and the generators
That San Angelo article seemed to match this thread
That was a good conversation and hopefully made a new friend in the process
Why the big drop off in total capacity at midnight?
probably a plant trip or something / I was in bed so hard to tell after the fact unless you are watching it live
Sorry. Meant the blue line for forecast capacity that looks like it drops off tonight. Or am I reading the chart wrong?
I really like the plant map, it's very interesting and I don't know if there is a way for me to see that information without your software.
Thanks for posting them.
Thanks for posting them.
On the map with the individual plants, what are the numbers representing?
Power is back on steady since last night. That was 3 days of rolling blackouts for me.
Jbob04 said:
On the map with the individual plants, what are the numbers representing?
I'm assuming % capacity
Jbob04 said:
On the map with the individual plants, what are the numbers representing?
% load they are running. Lot of derated plants
That's what I thought. I was surprised to see that Oak Grove was running. They've been down and had heard they wouldn't be back up until next weekend.
Aggie_2463 said:Jbob04 said:
On the map with the individual plants, what are the numbers representing?
% load they are running. Lot of derated plants
I am surprised at the amount of derated plants. The one I work at has been trying to stay at full load but based off the map, they aren't there.
Thanks for the info gonemaroon, much appreciated.
ERCOT exec's ex-wife must live there.Earl_Rudder said:
That dark red county in the middle is Mason county, still at around 85% customer outage.
NRC website says South Texas Project Unit 1 was at 35% this morning. The other 3 nuclear units were at 100%.
Misread. CEO is Bill Magness...
But apparently it's so bad they've taken down the bios of every Ercot director on the website.
But apparently it's so bad they've taken down the bios of every Ercot director on the website.
Houston is a s***show.
While ERCOT has authorized the Transmission and Distribution Service Providers to restore all Load associated with the EEA that was declared on Monday, February 15, 2021, many customers have not yet been re-energized. As a result, ERCOT will remain in EEA3 through at least the morning peak period on Friday, February 19, 2021. This Market Notice is to provide contemporaneous notification to Market Participants that ERCOT will continue adjusting the RTBLTIMPORT component of the Real-Time Reliability Deployment Price Adder accordingly. Upon exiting EEA3, ERCOT will return to utilizing the RTBLTIMPORT component solely for any Block-Load Transfer imports into ERCOT. When ERCOT exits EEA3, it will notify the Market via a subsequent Market Notice.
Meaning - tomorrow afternoon ERCOT thinks the situation will be way better.
Meaning - tomorrow afternoon ERCOT thinks the situation will be way better.
Or it'll be better when everyone is above freezing...
Jbob04 said:
That's what I thought. I was surprised to see that Oak Grove was running. They've been down and had heard they wouldn't be back up until next weekend.
Cant always believe what you hear