will we make the tournament?

34,287 Views | 258 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by aginlakeway
dixichkn
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AG
Gotta have at least two, if not all 3 against the gumps. I want as little as possible hanging in the balance when we head to the Dude

This was the rare weekend when I was pulling for swamp kitty and Vandy. And of course they let me down.
twk
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Luke The Drifter said:

Let's be honest - if we don't sweep MSU, we should be hugely disappointed. MSU is terrible, so much so they fired their pitching coach mid-season. There is a very good chance they'll fire their head coach only 2 years after winning the national title. There is a very good chance MSU has already mailed it in for the season. We MUST win at least 2 games in Starkville, if not 3.

Regarding Alabama, they are in turmoil. Their series win over Vandy this weekend was great…but they have to come down off the initial "hallelujah…we just fired our a-hole coach" high. We need 2 wins vs. Bama this weekend.

Quite honestly, at this point anything less than a 15-15 SEC record should leave us sorely disappointed.
I'm never hugely disappointed when we fail to sweep a SEC road series. Maybe slightly disappointed when you let one slip out of your grasp (Auburn), but if you told me right now I could go 2-1 against both Bama and State, I'd take that in a heartbeat.
W
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one thing to keep in in mind....

is how dramatically today's win (and other weekend results) changed A&M's resume

the Ags suddenly have three top 30 RPI series wins. Two on the road.

#1 Kentucky
#11 Florida
#28 Auburn
aginlakeway
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W said:

one thing to keep in in mind....

is how dramatically today's win (and other weekend results) changed A&M's resume

the Ags suddenly have three top 30 RPI series wins. Two on the road.

#1 Kentucky
#11 Florida
#28 Auburn


Very good point.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
SilverTongueDevil
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aginlakeway said:

W said:

one thing to keep in in mind....

is how dramatically today's win (and other weekend results) changed A&M's resume

the Ags suddenly have three top 30 RPI series wins. Two on the road.

#1 Kentucky
#11 Florida
#28 Auburn


Very good point.


Yes a very good point.
Sq 17
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Nice to win the series but more important to get wins after Friday's loss needed to win 6 out of 8 to get to .500 in conference, 2 wins later know we need four out 6
Divining Rod
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this weekend was huge. great shot to go 4-2 last two series for a 15-15 record and a berth.
Luke The Drifter
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I hear you. Maybe hugely disappointed is too strong of a term. But we do have to acknowledge that MSU is just in a terrible spot as a program right now and there's a very good chance they'll have little to play for by the time we get to Starkville.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
t - cam
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Was this weekend it? Need to win the sec now?
GoAgs92
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Current RPI is 39...no reason to worry yet.
MagnumLoad
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IMO, if we don't at least win the series with State, we are done short of winning the SEC tournament. Is the tournament winner an auto bid? Probably need to sweep State.
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nereus
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MagnumLoad said:

Is the tournament winner an auto bid?
Yes, but I don't think SEC baseball has ever gotten an extra team in that way since we have been in the conference.
tjack16
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Win the series in Starkville and we are in.
Lose that series and we will need to win a few in Hoover.

I do believe if we get in, we have the offense to shock some people (if our draw is decent)
A-A Ron
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Luke The Drifter said:

I hear you. Maybe hugely disappointed is too strong of a term. But we do have to acknowledge that MSU is just in a terrible spot as a program right now and there's a very good chance they'll have little to play for by the time we get to Starkville.
Unfortunately I feel differently about this after this past weekend as they just took to of 3 from LSU at Alex Box Stadium, so us having to go to the Dude could be a battle especially if we don't show up like we did against Florida.
Aggie1188
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We've won 5 of our last 7 SEC series… with an RPI below 40. You'd think making it 6 of 8 would make it a lock.
Sgt. Schultz
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To answer the OP.....short of sweeping clanga and 3 wins in Hoover, no we will not make the tournament.

I told my sons that early in the year we would not make the tournament.

Who saw last year coming? The experts didn't and were as surprised as anyone. So when the experts anointed this year's team as a Top 10 team, you really did have to question things. Pretty much anyone could see there was way too much production in the line-up to replace and best case, the pitching this year was going to be average to decent. Well decent hasn't shown up outside of a few outings. That is a recipe for mediocrity. If we were excellent at any one phase, we might be able to overcome our shortcomings in the other phases. But we are not.
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twk
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Sgt. Schultz said:

To answer the OP.....short of sweeping clanga and 3 wins in Hoover, no we will not make the tournament.

I told my sons that early in the year we would not make the tournament.

Who saw last year coming? The experts didn't and were as surprised as anyone. So when the experts anointed this year's team as a Top 10 team, you really did have to question things. Pretty much anyone could see there was way too much production in the line-up to replace and best case, the pitching this year was going to be average to decent. Well decent hasn't shown up outside of a few outings. That is a recipe for mediocrity. If we were excellent at any one phase, we might be able to overcome our shortcomings in the other phases. But we are not.
If we sweep MSU, we're in, even if we are one and done at Hoover. We'd be 15-15 with an RPI around 30. That's a tournament resume, despite the non-conference problems.

Now, the way we are playing, I'd be shocked if we swept State, so this is probably all academic.
dixichkn
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Hell at this point I'll be shocked if we win 2 of 3. I think we're gonna need to make a 3 or 4 day run in Hoover to have any level of "rest easy"
Sgt. Schultz
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twk said:

Sgt. Schultz said:

To answer the OP.....short of sweeping clanga and 3 wins in Hoover, no we will not make the tournament.

I told my sons that early in the year we would not make the tournament.

Who saw last year coming? The experts didn't and were as surprised as anyone. So when the experts anointed this year's team as a Top 10 team, you really did have to question things. Pretty much anyone could see there was way too much production in the line-up to replace and best case, the pitching this year was going to be average to decent. Well decent hasn't shown up outside of a few outings. That is a recipe for mediocrity. If we were excellent at any one phase, we might be able to overcome our shortcomings in the other phases. But we are not.
If we sweep MSU, we're in, even if we are one and done at Hoover. We'd be 15-15 with an RPI around 30. That's a tournament resume, despite the non-conference problems.

Now, the way we are playing, I'd be shocked if we swept State, so this is probably all academic.
As an aside.....our SID does a fantastic job because no matter the sport, they do a great job of hyping the team, regardless of sport and then the echo chamber kicks in. Question what the echo chamber says and you are labeled as a sip or a troll, or a hater, or a combination of all of the above. Its kind of like the legacy media parroting the DNC talking points and if you question the narrative, you get a "label."
I know NOTHING!!!!
twk
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Sgt. Schultz said:

twk said:

Sgt. Schultz said:

To answer the OP.....short of sweeping clanga and 3 wins in Hoover, no we will not make the tournament.

I told my sons that early in the year we would not make the tournament.

Who saw last year coming? The experts didn't and were as surprised as anyone. So when the experts anointed this year's team as a Top 10 team, you really did have to question things. Pretty much anyone could see there was way too much production in the line-up to replace and best case, the pitching this year was going to be average to decent. Well decent hasn't shown up outside of a few outings. That is a recipe for mediocrity. If we were excellent at any one phase, we might be able to overcome our shortcomings in the other phases. But we are not.
If we sweep MSU, we're in, even if we are one and done at Hoover. We'd be 15-15 with an RPI around 30. That's a tournament resume, despite the non-conference problems.

Now, the way we are playing, I'd be shocked if we swept State, so this is probably all academic.
You know, our SID does a fantastic job because no matter the sport, they do a great job of hyping the team, regardless of sport and then the echo chamber kicks in. Question what the echo chamber says and you are labeled as a sip or a troll, or a hater, or a combination of all of the above. Its kind of like the legacy media parroting the DNC talking points and if you question the narrative, you get a "label."
It's not hype, it's history. Wins at Hoover just don't matter much, if at all. If we get to 15-15, that will either do it or it won't. Your idea that wins at Hoover would matter at 15-15 just isn't based on past results.
Jarrin' Jay
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I'd say 2 wins vs. State + 1 win in Hoover would get us in. It would be as a low rated 3 or 4 seed and not a good regional or bracket pairing, but we would be in. We have some ugly Ls and some early season performances dragging our resume down. The last 2 games vs. Bama were bad and didn't help at all.

However, if we win the State series + 1 in Hoover that is a pretty good resume for an "at-large" type team, and this team could win a regional IMHO. Win the State series and win 2 in Hoover and I would say it's a lock for NCAA tournament.

Playing in the SEC cuts both ways, if we DON'T make the NCAA tournament there will easily be 12-14 teams that we know we are better than and would beat in a H2H series, it's like inviting the best AAA teams to the MLB playoffs, but it is what it is.

That doesn't mean State won't play hard and try to win every game, as last weekend showed, they will be playing at home in their nice stadium, in maybe their last 3 games of the season. It will be tough to win 2 of 3.

Really hope we do make the NCAA Tournament. This team won't make a deep run but always better to be in the field that not and given what Schloss and his staff are doing and building we should not have to worry about it much going forward, would just stink to not make the tournament this season.

If we don't win 2 of 3 from State we would probably need 3+ Ws in Hoover to make it. Losing the Bama series at home was a killer.
jkag89
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Quote:

I'd say 2 wins vs. State + 1 win in Hoover would get us in. It would be as a low rated 3 or 4 seed and not a good regional or bracket pairing, but we would be in
At large teams are never ever 4 seeds. If we make the field it will be a a 3 seed. Might be as high as a 2 seed with a sweep of State and a win or two in Hoover.
twk
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Quote:

Correct me if I am wrong, State is NOT playing for a berth in the SEC Tournament, both State and Ole Miss have been eliminated. Even if State SWEEPS the Aggies, State would still be out. The SEC tournament is set, the only question is seeding... aTm could be seeded anywhere from 6 to 12 depending on the last series.
State is still in the running for Hoover, and probably will be even if we win game 1.

Currently, the bottom of the league looks like this

10-17 Missouri
10-17 UGA
8-19 State
6-21 Ole Miss

Ole Miss has been eliminated. State could still catch UGA or Missouri, depending on what they do versus LSU (in BR) and Auburn (at Auburn) respectively. I'm not sure who would have the tie breaker in the even of a tie. Neither Missouri nor Georgia played State.
TAMU1990
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Jarrin' Jay said:

I'd say 2 wins vs. State + 1 win in Hoover would get us in. It would be as a low rated 3 or 4 seed and not a good regional or bracket pairing, but we would be in. We have some ugly Ls and some early season performances dragging our resume down. The last 2 games vs. Bama were bad and didn't help at all.

However, if we win the State series + 1 in Hoover that is a pretty good resume for an "at-large" type team, and this team could win a regional IMHO. Win the State series and win 2 in Hoover and I would say it's a lock for NCAA tournament.

Playing in the SEC cuts both ways, if we DON'T make the NCAA tournament there will easily be 12-14 teams that we know we are better than and would beat in a H2H series, it's like inviting the best AAA teams to the MLB playoffs, but it is what it is.

That doesn't mean State won't play hard and try to win every game, as last weekend showed, they will be playing at home in their nice stadium, in maybe their last 3 games of the season. It will be tough to win 2 of 3.

Really hope we do make the NCAA Tournament. This team won't make a deep run but always better to be in the field that not and given what Schloss and his staff are doing and building we should not have to worry about it much going forward, would just stink to not make the tournament this season.

If we don't win 2 of 3 from State we would probably need 3+ Ws in Hoover to make it. Losing the Bama series at home was a killer.
4 seeds are for the auto qualifiers from lower ranked conference. We will be a three seed if we get in.
EliteZags
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Sgt. Schultz said:

twk said:

Sgt. Schultz said:

To answer the OP.....short of sweeping clanga and 3 wins in Hoover, no we will not make the tournament.

I told my sons that early in the year we would not make the tournament.

Who saw last year coming? The experts didn't and were as surprised as anyone. So when the experts anointed this year's team as a Top 10 team, you really did have to question things. Pretty much anyone could see there was way too much production in the line-up to replace and best case, the pitching this year was going to be average to decent. Well decent hasn't shown up outside of a few outings. That is a recipe for mediocrity. If we were excellent at any one phase, we might be able to overcome our shortcomings in the other phases. But we are not.
If we sweep MSU, we're in, even if we are one and done at Hoover. We'd be 15-15 with an RPI around 30. That's a tournament resume, despite the non-conference problems.

Now, the way we are playing, I'd be shocked if we swept State, so this is probably all academic.
As an aside.....our SID does a fantastic job because no matter the sport, they do a great job of hyping the team, regardless of sport and then the echo chamber kicks in. Question what the echo chamber says and you are labeled as a sip or a troll, or a hater, or a combination of all of the above. Its kind of like the legacy media parroting the DNC talking points and if you question the narrative, you get a "label."
^
| what does this nonsense have anything to do with how flat wrong your statement is about still needing wins in Hoover with a .500 conf record?
jkag89
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Sgt. Schultz said:

twk said:

Sgt. Schultz said:

To answer the OP.....short of sweeping clanga and 3 wins in Hoover, no we will not make the tournament.

I told my sons that early in the year we would not make the tournament.

Who saw last year coming? The experts didn't and were as surprised as anyone. So when the experts anointed this year's team as a Top 10 team, you really did have to question things. Pretty much anyone could see there was way too much production in the line-up to replace and best case, the pitching this year was going to be average to decent. Well decent hasn't shown up outside of a few outings. That is a recipe for mediocrity. If we were excellent at any one phase, we might be able to overcome our shortcomings in the other phases. But we are not.
If we sweep MSU, we're in, even if we are one and done at Hoover. We'd be 15-15 with an RPI around 30. That's a tournament resume, despite the non-conference problems.

Now, the way we are playing, I'd be shocked if we swept State, so this is probably all academic.
As an aside.....our SID does a fantastic job because no matter the sport, they do a great job of hyping the team, regardless of sport and then the echo chamber kicks in. Question what the echo chamber says and you are labeled as a sip or a troll, or a hater, or a combination of all of the above. Its kind of like the legacy media parroting the DNC talking points and if you question the narrative, you get a "label."
User name checks out.
Jeremyjwells
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Hey now... at least spell Kasen's name right
dermdoc
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Sgt. Schultz said:

twk said:

Sgt. Schultz said:

To answer the OP.....short of sweeping clanga and 3 wins in Hoover, no we will not make the tournament.

I told my sons that early in the year we would not make the tournament.

Who saw last year coming? The experts didn't and were as surprised as anyone. So when the experts anointed this year's team as a Top 10 team, you really did have to question things. Pretty much anyone could see there was way too much production in the line-up to replace and best case, the pitching this year was going to be average to decent. Well decent hasn't shown up outside of a few outings. That is a recipe for mediocrity. If we were excellent at any one phase, we might be able to overcome our shortcomings in the other phases. But we are not.
If we sweep MSU, we're in, even if we are one and done at Hoover. We'd be 15-15 with an RPI around 30. That's a tournament resume, despite the non-conference problems.

Now, the way we are playing, I'd be shocked if we swept State, so this is probably all academic.
As an aside.....our SID does a fantastic job because no matter the sport, they do a great job of hyping the team, regardless of sport and then the echo chamber kicks in. Question what the echo chamber says and you are labeled as a sip or a troll, or a hater, or a combination of all of the above. Its kind of like the legacy media parroting the DNC talking points and if you question the narrative, you get a "label."
I know nothing.
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Gyles Marrett
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If we win 2 of 3 at Miss St. and none in Hoover are we in or out?
Sq 17
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Given that scenario last for in if we are in

And being the last one in always depends on if an auto bid goes to a team that was not going to make it without winning their conference tournament
William_C_G
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AG
Yes, we should make the SEC tournament.
Iraq2xVeteran
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If we win 2 out of 3 at Mississippi State and at least one SEC tournament game, I believe we are in. Last year, Ole Miss finished 14-16 in SEC games and lost their only SEC tournament game to Vanderbilt 3-1, but they were the last team to make the field of 64 and went to win the College World Series.
91AggieLawyer
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Gyles Marrett said:

If we win 2 of 3 at Miss St. and none in Hoover are we in or out?

It still depends. There's too many variations to map it out and its still unknown whether the SEC gets 9 or 10 in. 10 is likely but not guaranteed.
TexasAGGIEinAR
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Gyles Marrett said:

If we win 2 of 3 at Miss St. and none in Hoover are we in or out?

I think so, personally. Our RPI will improve by winning 2/3 on the road and will put us at the 14 win mark. Going winless in Hoover wouldn't necessarily hurt us, as all the teams will have good or great RPI and it'll be at a neutral site. As someone posted above, see Ole Miss last year. The biggest negative would be ending the regular season on a losing note and that being the last image the committee will see.

In 2013 we only won 13 SEC games and had an RPI in the mid/upper 30's and squeaked in. Could be in a similar position in a few weeks.
AggieCrew44
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AG


The people that run this website/podcast are former players and are very plugged in. We are not even last 5 in. They even discuss how it's a very bizarre year in that there are a lot of Power 4 conference teams with good RPI's and bad conference records, hence the extremely weak bubble. They think the SEC cutoff will be 13 wins, including conference tourney wins.

They have Georgia and Mizzou both in first 5 out, so they both still have chances

I don't think 13 wins would do it for us as our RPI would be in much worse shape than Georgia and Mizzou in that scenario given our bad non-con losses, but 14 we are pretty safe barring an absurd amount of bid stealing
 
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