Bingo. VERY weak bubble this year.

Sea Pony 07 said:

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I would love to go to DBU for a regional.

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Would be awesome. I would be able to go to the games if so.

It is a beautiful park for a smaller school, but it is very small. Tickets might be hard to get.

W said:

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going to the DBU regional would be quite a gift from the committee

shades of 2017

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Not sure we have the pitching to beat DBU. Those dudes can rake. Bandbox of a stadium - wind typically blows out.

1 Texas regional and it's dbu. That would be pretty crazy.

Luke The Drifter said:

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W said:

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going to the DBU regional would be quite a gift from the committee

shades of 2017

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Not sure we have the pitching to beat DBU. Those dudes can rake. Bandbox of a stadium - wind typically blows out.

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They could send the sips there, although they went to DBU a few years back, if memory serves.

aginlakeway said:

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We're not even among the last 5 in. Wow.

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Wonder where we'll be after this upcoming weekend?

aginlakeway said:

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We're not even among the last 5 in. Wow.

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But we are listed as a "3" so definitely among the last ones in

75AG said:

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aginlakeway said:

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We're not even among the last 5 in. Wow.

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Wonder where we'll be after this upcoming weekend?

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From what I am seeing here, we may be in if we win 2 of 3. But it's anyone's guess.

I prefer to remain optimistic. Nothing I can do about it anyway ...

Man, I'm trying to be optimistic. This team may COMPLETELY surprise me this weekend and during the SEC Tournament.

AggieCrew44 said:

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Field of 64 Projections

Full Breakdown: https://t.co/S5bpj2Z7Ln pic.twitter.com/DiiiuEWGfc

— 11Point7: The College Baseball Podcast 🎙 (@11point7) May 16, 2023

The people that run this website/podcast are former players and are very plugged in. We are not even last 5 in. They even discuss how it's a very bizarre year in that there are a lot of Power 4 conference teams with good RPI's and bad conference records, hence the extremely weak bubble. They think the SEC cutoff will be 13 wins, including conference tourney wins.

They have Georgia and Mizzou both in first 5 out, so they both still have chances

I don't think 13 wins would do it for us as our RPI would be in much worse shape than Georgia and Mizzou in that scenario given our bad non-con losses, but 14 we are pretty safe barring an absurd amount of bid stealing

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Some of my thoughts on this bracket:

1) I'm not sure I fully see the current argument for Dallas Baptist to host over Indiana State, apart from C-USA is marginally a better conference than the MVU this season.

2) Oklahoma State hosting feels like a bit of a stretch at this point in time but could help lock it down this weekend with Bedlam.

3) Northeastern as 2 feel a bit like a stretch.

4) Louisville is probably closer to dragging themselves into the discussion than they're giving them credit if they also think Georgia and Missouri are on the bubble.

5) Georgia Tech has solidly been on the up and up and can play themselves out of the "Last 5 in" this weekend.

6) Arizona State or UCLA will stop their free-fall and play themselves onto the bubble in their series this weekend...unless I've missed it, they're not looking at ASU as much of a bubble team right now.

In general, I think there's more competition on the bubble from within the better conferences than they appear to think.

twk said:

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Luke The Drifter said:

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W said:

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going to the DBU regional would be quite a gift from the committee

shades of 2017

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Not sure we have the pitching to beat DBU. Those dudes can rake. Bandbox of a stadium - wind typically blows out.

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They could send the sips there, although they went to DBU a few years back, if memory serves.

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I don't think Texas ever went to DBU, but DBU was in Austin last year.

Luke The Drifter said:

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twk said:

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Luke The Drifter said:

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W said:

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going to the DBU regional would be quite a gift from the committee

shades of 2017

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Not sure we have the pitching to beat DBU. Those dudes can rake. Bandbox of a stadium - wind typically blows out.

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They could send the sips there, although they went to DBU a few years back, if memory serves.

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I don't think Texas ever went to DBU, but DBU was in Austin last year.

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sippe was the #3 seed when DBU hosted in 2015. The #4 Virginia Commonwealth actually won that regional.

there could be more bid-stealing this year than in past years

because C-USA and the AAC are really down

each league has only 1 team in the top 50...DBU in C-USA and East Carolina in the AAC

the C-USA tournament format will require DBU to win 4 games to earn the auto bid

same thing in the AAC. East Carolina has to win 4 games.

which means plenty of opportunities for an upset

Sq 17 said:

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aginlakeway said:

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We're not even among the last 5 in. Wow.

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But we are listed as a "3" so definitely among the last ones in

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There are sixteen 3 seeds

I thought most of
The three seeds were Auto-Qualifiers
I was Wrong it looks like only a few of the 3's are auto qualifiers

Yup. 4 seeds are always filled by the AQs from minor conferences since they have 100+ RPIs. I can't think of any examples of an at-large team being a 4 seed since the field expanded to 64.

AggieCrew44 said:

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Field of 64 Projections

Full Breakdown: https://t.co/S5bpj2Z7Ln pic.twitter.com/DiiiuEWGfc

— 11Point7: The College Baseball Podcast 🎙 (@11point7) May 16, 2023

The people that run this website/podcast are former players and are very plugged in. We are not even last 5 in. They even discuss how it's a very bizarre year in that there are a lot of Power 4 conference teams with good RPI's and bad conference records, hence the extremely weak bubble. They think the SEC cutoff will be 13 wins, including conference tourney wins.

They have Georgia and Mizzou both in first 5 out, so they both still have chances

I don't think 13 wins would do it for us as our RPI would be in much worse shape than Georgia and Mizzou in that scenario given our bad non-con losses, but 14 we are pretty safe barring an absurd amount of bid stealing

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Well if you look at that bracket, we are the last at-large team in if the "S curve" is employed. All of the 4 seeds are conference champs. If you get a few upsets in the one bid leagues if DBU & Coastal don't win their conference tournaments, we are very likely out.

This is pretty much what I think also.

The best 3 seed gets the 16th 1 seed. Except in baseball no fly rules lol.

listening to the D1 guys...

they think the Pac-12 has a shot at a second host via Oregon State...despite a current RPI of #30

also think that Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee are in the mix to host if they win their series this weekend and make a run at Hoover

those things would squeeze out the mid-majors from hosting

If anything, the sips will be sent to DBU. The committee won't resist the opportunity to give them a path to Omaha playing only mid-majors! Just like last year

Texas as a 2 seed is a joke

phatty26 said:

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Texas as a 2 seed is a joke

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Why's that?

Agsttt said:

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phatty26 said:

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Texas as a 2 seed is a joke

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Why's that?

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I know, I guess we have to say this on any thread that may involve Texas.

phatty26 said:

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Texas as a 2 seed is a joke

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Because you think they should be a 1-seed???