Honest question. Are we safely in? I'd have to imagine it's close.
will we make the tournament?
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Last: 1 yr ago by aginlakeway
No we aren't. We are on the edge of our seats for the rest of regular season. I believe we will make a regional, but it'll come down to the point where we are all biting our fingernails during the selection show.
8 conference games left
Need to win most of them to earn a spot
4-4 gets us to 13-17
5-3 gets us to 14-16
6-2 gets us to 15-15
15-15 we are almostly certainly in
Opinions vary on 14-16
historically 14-16 is good enough but the Ags have regularly been on the wrong side of the cut line recently
At 13-17 I think the feeling is we are probably on the wrong side of the cut line
Need to win most of them to earn a spot
4-4 gets us to 13-17
5-3 gets us to 14-16
6-2 gets us to 15-15
15-15 we are almostly certainly in
Opinions vary on 14-16
historically 14-16 is good enough but the Ags have regularly been on the wrong side of the cut line recently
At 13-17 I think the feeling is we are probably on the wrong side of the cut line
It's going to be a nail biter!
Aggie 63
Would help to win more. But very few conferences are competitive with the SEC, so we might make it if we stay in the 40s due to strength of schedule.
The SEC tournament ? Yes, I think so.
Ncaa ? Gonna be close, but I say yes.
Ncaa ? Gonna be close, but I say yes.
We definitely have work to do. We are not yet safely into anything, including the SEC tournament. I think it's likely we make it to Hoover, but getting a regional bid secured is still a long way off. Too many factors working against us.
Likely to have a losing SEC record
No marquee non-conference wins (Texas State is our best OOC win)
Series loss to Portland
Other losses to Lamar, Sam Houston, and UTSA
RPI in the 40-50 range
About the only thing working in our favor is strength of schedule. We sit at #9 in that category today.
Likely to have a losing SEC record
No marquee non-conference wins (Texas State is our best OOC win)
Series loss to Portland
Other losses to Lamar, Sam Houston, and UTSA
RPI in the 40-50 range
About the only thing working in our favor is strength of schedule. We sit at #9 in that category today.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
If we had some upper classmen step up we probably would be fine but now we have to squeak one out vs Florida and win the next two series. I don't think we are sweeping MSST @ MS. This team is yet to step up when needed. Almost like the reverse of last year's team. Wait for it....
Just needed one of these
- Will Johnston gets walked off Sat night against Tenn
- Kason Wells doesn't know how to slide at Auburn
- Pitching staff craps the bed against MO and UK in sweep opportunities
- Ark 1st game pitching staff only walks 7 not 14 we probably win
- Ark 3rd game we don't kick the ball all over the place and we probably win
- A single by Bolt in the first and we beat Florida, not laying this one on Laviolet, Bolts the captain
Just needed one of these
- Will Johnston gets walked off Sat night against Tenn
- Kason Wells doesn't know how to slide at Auburn
- Pitching staff craps the bed against MO and UK in sweep opportunities
- Ark 1st game pitching staff only walks 7 not 14 we probably win
- Ark 3rd game we don't kick the ball all over the place and we probably win
- A single by Bolt in the first and we beat Florida, not laying this one on Laviolet, Bolts the captain
today is another piece of the puzzle -- need a win
Mr obvious here but we don't have a starting pitcher that can go 5+ only giving up a couple runs…. Then factor in the sporadic offense. If we make it to the postseason we're not going to last long. Hope we can find a couple starters to give us 5+ innings.
Or Bost
I hate to say you're right. But you're right. Possibly a couple more.
Just an old dad who raise 3 Ags. Inherited 2 more. GIG’EM
We are definitely not safely in.
Can we make it in easily with playing well in relation to how we've played at times this year? Yes.
Pick up a game against Florida plus win the remaining couple series (without a loss to RGV of course) and we should be in.
Sure, I'd love to be sitting in a better spot right now but this is our chance to truly force our pitchers to perform. We'll need that for any ncaa tournament worth watching anyway. Do or die
Can we make it in easily with playing well in relation to how we've played at times this year? Yes.
Pick up a game against Florida plus win the remaining couple series (without a loss to RGV of course) and we should be in.
Sure, I'd love to be sitting in a better spot right now but this is our chance to truly force our pitchers to perform. We'll need that for any ncaa tournament worth watching anyway. Do or die
Get to 14 wins and we're safe. Weak bubble this year. Still yucky based on season expectations.
My thoughts are to get in and its all gravy from there. This year just isn't "it". Build for next year.
cj774 said:
My thoughts are to get in and its all gravy from there. This year just isn't "it". Build for next year.
Building for next year is an obsolete term in college sports. With the transfer portal and NIL available to athletes, there is no more building for next year. Coaches now have to recruit (read: pay) for the best players available year in and year out. No one can look at next year anymore under the current college sports structure. It's either win now or recruit (buy) better players for next year.
It's a sad state. I feel bad for the coaches.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
Agryan00 said:
If we had some upper classmen step up we probably would be fine but now we have to squeak one out vs Florida and win the next two series. I don't think we are sweeping MSST @ MS. This team is yet to step up when needed. Almost like the reverse of last year's team. Wait for it....
Just needed one of these
- Will Johnston gets walked off Sat night against Tenn
- Kason Wells doesn't know how to slide at Auburn
- Pitching staff craps the bed against MO and UK in sweep opportunities
- Ark 1st game pitching staff only walks 7 not 14 we probably win
- Ark 3rd game we don't kick the ball all over the place and we probably win
- A single by Bolt in the first and we beat Florida, not laying this one on Laviolet, Bolts the captain
We got the 15-2 squeaker against Florida.
Agryan00 said:
If we had some upper classmen step up we probably would be fine but now we have to squeak one out vs Florida and win the next two series. I don't think we are sweeping MSST @ MS. This team is yet to step up when needed. Almost like the reverse of last year's team. Wait for it....
Just needed one of these
- Will Johnston gets walked off Sat night against Tenn
- Kason Wells doesn't know how to slide at Auburn
- Pitching staff craps the bed against MO and UK in sweep opportunities
- Ark 1st game pitching staff only walks 7 not 14 we probably win
- Ark 3rd game we don't kick the ball all over the place and we probably win
- A single by Bolt in the first and we beat Florida, not laying this one on Laviolet, Bolts the captain
You left out the handful of times Birmingham Screwed the Ags
I believe this is what it's going to take to be safely in:
- Win today and win the last two series
- Finish conference play 15-15 or better
- Win the rest of our midweek/noncon games
- Win at least 2 conference games in the SEC tournament
Do all these things and we are 35-23 or better by the end of regular season. We are projected to be in the Stanford regional as of now, which isn't too bad. If we won that regional, then we would have to most likely go against Coastal Carolina, which I like our chances in that as well. Needless to say, it's going to be a MIRACLE if we find our way to Omaha again. Just carry on what we did yesterday, and we will find our special run.
- Win today and win the last two series
- Finish conference play 15-15 or better
- Win the rest of our midweek/noncon games
- Win at least 2 conference games in the SEC tournament
Do all these things and we are 35-23 or better by the end of regular season. We are projected to be in the Stanford regional as of now, which isn't too bad. If we won that regional, then we would have to most likely go against Coastal Carolina, which I like our chances in that as well. Needless to say, it's going to be a MIRACLE if we find our way to Omaha again. Just carry on what we did yesterday, and we will find our special run.
What are the chances the UTRGV game gets "cancelled" as an RPI killer?
12th Man Ag said:
What are the chances the UTRGV game gets "cancelled" as an RPI killer?
I think this year we need to play the game. The more reps our guys can get at the plate and the more pitchers we can get work on the mound, the better. Last year, we were in the running for a host spot, national seed, etc. We needed everything to break our way to make that happen. This year, with the struggles we've faced, we need win and player reps more than we need an RPI point or two. Just my 2 cents worth...
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
IMO. 15-15 gets us in because that means we are 5-2 in last 7 SEC games
it's interesting...
the big weekends by the SEC's 8th / 9th / 10th / 11th teams has the effect of shrinking the bubble for the other power conferences
the big weekends by the SEC's 8th / 9th / 10th / 11th teams has the effect of shrinking the bubble for the other power conferences
Agryan00 said:Agryan00 said:
If we had some upper classmen step up we probably would be fine but now we have to squeak one out vs Florida and win the next two series. I don't think we are sweeping MSST @ MS. This team is yet to step up when needed. Almost like the reverse of last year's team. Wait for it....
Just needed one of these
- Will Johnston gets walked off Sat night against Tenn
- Kason Wells doesn't know how to slide at Auburn
- Pitching staff craps the bed against MO and UK in sweep opportunities
- Ark 1st game pitching staff only walks 7 not 14 we probably win
- Ark 3rd game we don't kick the ball all over the place and we probably win
- A single by Bolt in the first and we beat Florida, not laying this one on Laviolet, Bolts the captain
We got the 15-2 squeaker against Florida.
Upper classmen steps up with single in the 9th and we take the series against #4. We are just about locked in for the post season.
AggieNattie said:
I believe this is what it's going to take to be safely in:
- Win today and win the last two series
- Finish conference play 15-15 or better
- Win the rest of our midweek/noncon games
- Win at least 2 conference games in the SEC tournament
Do all these things and we are 35-23 or better by the end of regular season. We are projected to be in the Stanford regional as of now, which isn't too bad. If we won that regional, then we would have to most likely go against Coastal Carolina, which I like our chances in that as well. Needless to say, it's going to be a MIRACLE if we find our way to Omaha again. Just carry on what we did yesterday, and we will find our special run.
That's a 2 seed. Safely in.
I think 14-16 gets us in with a win in the SECT. 3 seed.
RPI is now at 36 after today's win. Need to finish 15-15 which should move our RPI to around 30 or the low 30's and safely in.
Six SEC teams are in for sure. Tennessee is at 12-12 with an RPI of 27. Alabama is at 11-13 and an RPI of 18. Auburn is 11-13 with an RPI of 28. Georgia is 10-14 with an RPI of 29.
It is doubtful that the SEC gets ten teams in. Right now we would be the 10th or 11th team. I don't think 14-16 will get us in the tourney.
Six SEC teams are in for sure. Tennessee is at 12-12 with an RPI of 27. Alabama is at 11-13 and an RPI of 18. Auburn is 11-13 with an RPI of 28. Georgia is 10-14 with an RPI of 29.
It is doubtful that the SEC gets ten teams in. Right now we would be the 10th or 11th team. I don't think 14-16 will get us in the tourney.
Haven't been able to follow much this year. Why the big dropoff from last year?
Mainly too many walks given out
threeanout said:
RPI is now at 36 after today's win. Need to finish 15-15 which should move our RPI to around 30 or the low 30's and safely in.
Six SEC teams are in for sure. Tennessee is at 12-12 with an RPI of 27. Alabama is at 11-13 and an RPI of 18. Auburn is 11-13 with an RPI of 28. Georgia is 10-14 with an RPI of 29.
It is doubtful that the SEC gets ten teams in. Right now we would be the 10th or 11th team. I don't think 14-16 will get us in the tourney.
It depends how the other teams finish.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
I think we're in good shape if we win 2 of 3 vs Bama.
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
Definitely in good shape if we win 2 of 3 from Bama, but you can't follow that up by losing 2 of 3 to Miss St. who along with Ole Miss is the worst team in the league.aginlakeway said:
I think we're in good shape if we win 2 of 3 vs Bama.
Bama and Clanga next - I'd be shocked with less than 3 wins or more than four. 4 most likely. 3 possible with us basically being State's post season. I think 3 is a 3 seed and 4 is a 2.
WalksArtorias said:
Haven't been able to follow much this year. Why the big dropoff from last year?
At bats haven't been as productive. Last year we made our opponents use more pitchers per game and a TON more pitchers per game than us. Not so this year.
aginlakeway said:threeanout said:
RPI is now at 36 after today's win. Need to finish 15-15 which should move our RPI to around 30 or the low 30's and safely in.
Six SEC teams are in for sure. Tennessee is at 12-12 with an RPI of 27. Alabama is at 11-13 and an RPI of 18. Auburn is 11-13 with an RPI of 28. Georgia is 10-14 with an RPI of 29.
It is doubtful that the SEC gets ten teams in. Right now we would be the 10th or 11th team. I don't think 14-16 will get us in the tourney.
It depends how the other teams finish.
Yep.
Tennessee has Kentucky and SoCar. Who knows which Tenn team will show up.
Bama has us and Ole Miss.
Auburn has Ole Miss and Mizzou. They have the easiest remaining schedule. Plus, they're playing pretty well. I would not be surprised if they ended with 16 or 17 wins.
UGa has Mizzou and LSU at home, where they swept Ark, took 2 of 3 from Tenn and Kentucky. Don't rule out them getting to at least 14 and even 15.
We, of course, have Bama and State. I've been saying 14-16 probably won't be enough for us. Now, the Florida series win helped, but that doesn't factor the other 4 teams mentioned. I didn't think Tenn would lose 2 to UGa or Auburn would win the series against LSU.
Let's be honest - if we don't sweep MSU, we should be hugely disappointed. MSU is terrible, so much so they fired their pitching coach mid-season. There is a very good chance they'll fire their head coach only 2 years after winning the national title. There is a very good chance MSU has already mailed it in for the season. We MUST win at least 2 games in Starkville, if not 3.
Regarding Alabama, they are in turmoil. Their series win over Vandy this weekend was great…but they have to come down off the initial "hallelujah…we just fired our a-hole coach" high. We need 2 wins vs. Bama this weekend.
Quite honestly, at this point anything less than a 15-15 SEC record should leave us sorely disappointed.
Regarding Alabama, they are in turmoil. Their series win over Vandy this weekend was great…but they have to come down off the initial "hallelujah…we just fired our a-hole coach" high. We need 2 wins vs. Bama this weekend.
Quite honestly, at this point anything less than a 15-15 SEC record should leave us sorely disappointed.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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