I'd say 2 wins vs. State + 1 win in Hoover would get us in. It would be as a low rated 3 or 4 seed and not a good regional or bracket pairing, but we would be in. We have some ugly Ls and some early season performances dragging our resume down. The last 2 games vs. Bama were bad and didn't help at all.
However, if we win the State series + 1 in Hoover that is a pretty good resume for an "at-large" type team, and this team could win a regional IMHO. Win the State series and win 2 in Hoover and I would say it's a lock for NCAA tournament.
Playing in the SEC cuts both ways, if we DON'T make the NCAA tournament there will easily be 12-14 teams that we know we are better than and would beat in a H2H series, it's like inviting the best AAA teams to the MLB playoffs, but it is what it is.
That doesn't mean State won't play hard and try to win every game, as last weekend showed, they will be playing at home in their nice stadium, in maybe their last 3 games of the season. It will be tough to win 2 of 3.
Really hope we do make the NCAA Tournament. This team won't make a deep run but always better to be in the field that not and given what Schloss and his staff are doing and building we should not have to worry about it much going forward, would just stink to not make the tournament this season.
If we don't win 2 of 3 from State we would probably need 3+ Ws in Hoover to make it. Losing the Bama series at home was a killer.