So what do you guys think Conlon may do?

TAM85 said:

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So what do you guys think Conlon may do?

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Gabe mentioned in premium that he has turned down a few million dollar offers, so I would assume he signs over slot.

Based on a quick search of the internets it seems like his family doesn't "need" the money and may not think of 300k after taxes as a reason not to go straight to the pros.

Aggies1322 said:

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mdanyc03 said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Kohl Stewart should be a cautionary tale.. 4 years later and he's got a losing record in AA. Hope Rob can convince most of these guys to get to campus.

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Not sure I follow.

Are you suggesting that Kohl would have gone higher in the draft (than fifth overall) if he had come to college? Or that he would be progressing through the minors faster?

I like to see every prospect possible come to college (especially Aggies) but not sure I would use a guy that went fifth overall as a cautionary tale.

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Yeah, I think coming to college would've helped him develop into a pro pitcher faster. I think it's easier to develop when you aren't riding a bus to nowhere, USA every week. But it's all speculation of course. He got a huge payday, so I'm not sure he's complaining about it.

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High round college guys generally go to High A and sometimes AA. He's right on schedule. The debate on which is better for development is fine, but let's stop claiming that AA is behind schedule for a player his age.

Alex Scherff picked by Boston

Red Sox just took Scherff

Hill just went to Nationals.

And Brigham Hill goes in the 5th as well

themissinglink said:

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Pick 128 (Conlon) carries a slot bonus of $409k. The Orioles have one of the lower bonus pools in the league and drafted a high school with their 1st round pick. I can't imagine he got much above $500k.

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...and then they drafted another HS player, and Aggie commit, in the 2nd round in Adam Hall.

When will we know his intentions?

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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And Brigham Hill goes in the 5th as well

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Finally beat you on this one.

Between now and mid-July.

Last year between High A and AA Kohl was 12-8 with a 2.88 ERA in about 150 innings. Right on track you'd think.

He's been hurt some this year so it hasn't gone so well. I think he's on the DL now. His family belongs to the same country club I do and one of the golf staff told me he broke the course record within the past couple of weeks.

We should start to see a lot more college seniors getting picked now by teams looking to play with slot pool money.

Through 6 rounds now, just 120 picks left today. I won't name names, but there are still a few top high school commits left on the table.

Slot values have now dropped below $200,000 going forward

Values are under 150K now. Not that a team couldn't have saved money with other picks and still pay above slot though.

Just 30 picks to go today

one data point...Lance McCullers Jr. with the Astros...was drafted out of high school in 2012. He made his major league debut in 2015

Thank you!!

Boston is going to have to save close to a $1M on other signees then....his number was reported to be around $1.5M or higher.

Come on Alex! We want you in Aggieland.

It seems the good news is Asa Lacy and Tylor Fischer slipped outside the top 10 rounds. The bad news is Conlon went in the 4th round. The expected news was Martin, Hill, Schref and Hall going in the first 5 rounds. Probably the best we can hope for is one of Schref or Conlon to turn down a payday to come to school and that's pretty low odds.

Will be interesting to watch what happens with Sherrod, Larkins and Chafin who were all expected to leave.

Questions abound:
Will the Orioles over pay slot value for Conlon?

The combo of Boston history and needing to highly overpay for Scherff?

Scherff knows he will be a first round pick in a few years. Will he choose to pass up Boston?

MountainAg99 said:

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Scherff knows he will be a first round pick in a few years. Will he choose to pass up Boston?

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No one "KNOWS" anything will happen in a few years. There's many a slip twixt a cup and the lip.

Scherff wouldn't have slipped past round 2 if he told people he would sign. If he comes to A&M, there is a high degree of confidence he will be a 1st rounder.

I'm new at draft analysis, but getting Scherff to campus looks probable.

-Boston has a bonus pool of around $5.6 mil
-Tanner Houck in 1st round, about where he was projected
-Boston will probably have to pay Houck approx $2.6 mil
-Boston has $3 mil left to pay its other 9 picks
-Boston would take a bonus pool penalty of $300k if it does not sign Scherff
-I assume that Boston will not exceed the bp by more than 5%, b/c that means losing draft picks
-So even if they exceed the bp by 4%, they only get another 200k to play with
-Cole Brannen with the 2nd pick, about where he was expected to go
-He should get a mil
-Down to 2 mil to pay the next 8 picks

I dont see how they afford Scherff. If Scherff should have gone day 1, then he would have been getting 1-2 mil. I bet Boston did not have anybody they liked at the price they liked, so they reached on Scherff on the off chance that he would change his mind about going to school and take the money.

If they did, it would have to go something like:

-Houck signs for something like $1.8 mil, saving 800k
-Brannen signs for 700k, saving 300k
-They would still need to squeeze between 500k from the remaining 8 picks
-Boston kicks in 200k above bonus pool and pays the luxury tax

It could be done, but they would have probably needed a plan in place for it. Based on the first 2 picks being taken about where their projections expected, I doubt it.

I work with Enlow's dad. He said that it is a lot quicker decision to make then most think. Most of the discussions were had about 2 minutes before the pick and would last about 30 seconds. Sure, there are some short discussions made prior to the draft via some kind of portal that allows the draftee to "post" a target value, but the real decisions are made right before the pick.