PA/OH trending well for Reps.
NV also seems to be starting off decent for Reps.
ETA: All above for Senate.
Good chance Dems will pick up House.
Good chance Reps will keep Senate 51+. If the Reps can stay at 53 in the Senate, they have a good chance of keeping the Senate for at least now through the middle of the 2030s.
Votes so far really skewed much older. Black votes down, youth votes down big.
Here’s a brief autopsy on Day 1 IPEV in NC
— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) October 16, 2026
The Dem raw vote total isn’t that impressive. Their splits are large because the R raw vote total is low.
The immediate reaction is to worry about terrible turnout - but 12 of the top 20 counties in NC so far for percentage of 2024… pic.twitter.com/P07OvOuFuT