He's still pissed that his puppet got tossed in 2014. Ukraine has been a long game for Putin. He's not about to give up just because Trump is trying to force some halfassed peace deal.
Had Trump won 2020, the invasion very likely would not have happened. But here we are and he can't force the toothpaste back in the tube, at this point.
Putin is a bully and you have to make it so costly for him, that he pulls his troops back somewhere between where they are now and 2014. Then he will stand up in front of the russian tvs and state the SMO is over all objectives achieved (bs).
This is done by; continuing aid to Ukraine, sanctions, promises to lift sanctions, and a dozen other measures. I have been following closely for three years. Russia was really starting to hurt especially with all the strikes on O&G, but trump threw him a wild card.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
He's still pissed that his puppet got tossed in 2014. Ukraine has been a long game for Putin. He's not about to give up just because Trump is trying to force some halfassed peace deal.
Had Trump won 2020, the invasion very likely would not have happened. But here we are and he can't force the toothpaste back in the tube, at this point.
So what is the solution? The question I responded to was "How come putin doesn't have to go?"
Well who is going to force Putin out? Obviously Ukraine can't do it, they've been trying for years with no success. Is it going to be the US? Seems unlikely under Trump. Will the EU/NATO force him out?
Given Russia's stated position I don't see how this gets resolved with Z remaining in power; but I don't think Trump is going to let it drag on for 4 more years either.
Z personally is expendable from a great powers point of view; that can happen to make it more negotiable, but we can't let Putin bully and dictate terms as much as the rest of that either. A UN administration? Would that include a UN army like was sent to Korea? Wasn't one sent to post Yugoslavia as well, to cite his 1999 example?
In its very distasteful unsatisfying cut baby in half aspect, the end of the Korean war probably offers the most guidance here. Its a very difficult place Biden's folly put things but some of the risks are also similar to Korea, and like it mandating that the war be wound down. Eisenhower found the way, and it wasn't all that liked at the time, but it has worked thus far. The need here may be even shorter in length of time.
At their rate of decay they weren't going to outlast the attrition BEFORE Trump threw them a lifeline
When exactly were they going to run out of steam? I've seen no evidence to support this assertion.
Did you miss all the multiple infantry assaults supported by crutches, wheel chairs, scooters, & dirtbikes? What about refineries 500km from the front on fire for weeks at a time?
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Don't forget the ill equipped North Koreans they were sending in too
Yep and just read kim sending 3000 more there now. Announced today.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
At their rate of decay they weren't going to outlast the attrition BEFORE Trump threw them a lifeline
When exactly were they going to run out of steam? I've seen no evidence to support this assertion.
Did you miss all the multiple infantry assaults supported by crutches, wheel chairs, scooters, & dirtbikes? What about refineries 500km from the front on fire for weeks at a time?
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Do you think Trump is going to do all of that? Any of that? He seems to be doing the opposite.
The sanctions and aid haven't worked to kick Russia out yet. I don't see a reason to believe they would suddenly turn the tide.
History has shown it is hard to beat Russia in their own backyard. I think its was a fools errand for us to try.
Whatever the truth of the stats, there is no denying the truth of that last line, and that's the part we need to start getting extricated from. Fair or not, no one overseas would be likely to win an argument with us about Mexico if they got involved. Its simply a proximity thing. We wouldn't yield.
Thank you for the discussion but I'm not convinced Russia was about to collapse. Its like I'm being told "Just wait two weeks" all over again.
Exactly my thought as well.
Two more weeks, thousands more dead. Then another two weeks, thousands more. And another.................
All for nothing.
Commit US/NATO troops or nothing changes. Not that I am advocating for that. Ukes will run out of bodies before Russia does. Europe doesn't seem to care. Same old song and dance.
Putin has proposed actually that the UN on an interim basis run the place:
Quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested discussing the establishment of a temporary government in Ukraine, under the guidance of the UN and several countries. The aim would be to hold fair elections in the country, since Vladimir Zelensky's presidential term officially expired in May 2024.
Moscow sees no clear way to sign any agreements with Kiev since "other leaders might come tomorrow," Putin explained on Thursday night while addressing the sailors of the Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine. "In such cases, international practice follows a well-known path within the framework of the United Nations peacekeeping activities; several instances have already demonstrated what is referred to as external management or temporary administration," he suggested.
External powers should facilitate elections in Ukraine to "establish a capable government that has the trust of the people", Putin stressed. After that, the new authorities could begin negotiations with Moscow and sign a peace agreement "that would be recognized around the world and will be reliable and stable."
However, Putin also stressed that temporary governance is only one possible option. "In general, we support resolving conflicts peacefully, including this one, but not at our expense," he concluded. The US recently brokered a limited ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, placing a moratorium on attacks on energy infrastructure. Zelensky has publicly supported the 30-day partial ceasefire, which is supposed to involve a reciprocal suspension of attacks by Kiev's forces.
This is a pretty conciliatory plan, imho, as while the UN is of course…feckless and inept, it's not a body that the Russians would see as a threat, and neither would the Ukrainians. In case anyone can't handle the RT link, here's an Al Jazeera piece on the same news, and I assume it will be reported at some point in MSM outlets this weekend. Having BRICS+ and NoKo join the peace talks seems…more humorous than serious, imho, maybe just a rejoinder to the goblin's demand the Brits/Germans also be at the table.
I wholeheartedly agree with Elon's quite sobering response to Brett here, encourage folks to listen to it in total, as to the 'virtue signaling' as he see's it from war proponents such as Mark Kelly.
In 2022, Elon Musk suggested a 4-part peace plan that contained a haunting warning: "This is highly likely to be the outcome in the end – just a question of how many die before then."
Zelensky publicly mocked the plan and Ukraine's outgoing ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk… pic.twitter.com/sLV1CRieaT
"We should have empathy for the thousands of people dying everyday in the trenches. For no movement in the lines. For the past two years thousands of people have died every week for nothing."
"I take great offense at those who put the appearance of goodness over the reality of it. Those who virtue signal and say we can't give into Russia, but have no solution to stopping thousands of kids dying every day."
"I have contempt for such people and I want to make that clear. Because they're virtue signaling and their lack of a solution means that kids don't have a father. It means parents lost a son. For what? Nothing."
It's not a stable front. Rutte/Starmer/Merz/Macron are not doing Zelensky's serfs any favors pushing for this to continue.
Thank you for the discussion but I'm not convinced Russia was about to collapse. Its like I'm being told "Just wait two weeks" all over again.
I never once said collapse. Hurting to the point they are struggling to advance and or hold the line.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Thank you for the discussion but I'm not convinced Russia was about to collapse. Its like I'm being told "Just wait two weeks" all over again.
I never once said collapse. Hurting to the point they are struggling to advance and or hold the line.
Russia's been steadily retaking Kursk. Again, no evidence of your assertions other than reddit videos- which are moments in time, incapable of capturing trends over weeks/months.
literally in the past week the final Ukrainians were either captured or thrown out of the Kursk salient from their invasion of Russia seven months ago.
that is a huge loss of territory and the Ukes lost about 1:1 in vehicles.
there is not a place along the entire front that Ukraine is advancing and Russia is retreating.
Thank you for the discussion but I'm not convinced Russia was about to collapse. Its like I'm being told "Just wait two weeks" all over again.
I never once said collapse. Hurting to the point they are struggling to advance and or hold the line.
Russia's been steadily retaking Kursk. Again, no evidence of your assertions other than reddit videos- which are moments in time, incapable of capturing trends over weeks/months.
I agree a single vid of a guy on the front in crutches or a wheel chair in an assault is a single moment in time but when you witness dozens of them its an indicator that things are very stressed.
Kursk was always going to be retaken given its difficulty in supplying against a giant. Since you two know so much about Kursk what did it cost russia to take back, what resources did they employ compared to UKR, and what outside event catalyzed its retaking?
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Thank you for the discussion but I'm not convinced Russia was about to collapse. Its like I'm being told "Just wait two weeks" all over again.
I never once said collapse. Hurting to the point they are struggling to advance and or hold the line.
absolute lies.
Not calling you a liar, but your assertions are incorrect. Ukrainians (and Russians for that matter), normal people like you and I, are being killed because Western (US, Britain, and others) meddled in Ukrainian affairs and taunted the beast, and we have continued that killing by propping them up.
This is ****ing nonsense and should have been over years ago. We helped them get into this mess and then we've provided the means to which they can kill off generations of their people. It's disgusting.
Thank you for the discussion but I'm not convinced Russia was about to collapse. Its like I'm being told "Just wait two weeks" all over again.
I never once said collapse. Hurting to the point they are struggling to advance and or hold the line.
absolute lies.
Not calling you a liar, but your assertions are incorrect. Ukrainians (and Russians for that matter), normal people like you and I, are being killed because Western (US, Britain, and others) meddled in Ukrainian affairs and taunted the beast, and we have continued that killing by propping them up.
This is ****ing nonsense and should have been over years ago. We helped them get into this mess and then we've provided the means to which they can kill off generations of their people. It's disgusting.
They are being killed because Putin decided to invade. He holds 100% of the responsibility and can stop this today if he actually wanted peace.
So those people would be better under forced Russian rule? The better option is just let Putin reestablish the Soviet union? You think he'll be satisfied if Ukraine just rolls over? Hell no! He'll set his sites on his next target and methodically continue to push and get away with whatever he's allowed to get away with. And it's not just a stronger Russia, it heavily emboldens their allies. You know, Iran, NK, China.
You sound like you're ready to send all of your money and kids over there to push Russia out of Crimea. I'm not as committed tbh. If Russia decides to have a massive build up on a NATO border I will revisit my opinion.
You sound like you're ready to send all of your money and kids over there to push Russia out of Crimea. I'm not as committed tbh. If Russia decides to have a massive build up on a NATO border I will revisit my opinion.
No one is suggesting US or even NATO troops in Ukraine. Nice try.
Edit: the average tax rate in the US is ~15%. Defense makes up ~13% of the US budget. So around 2% of the average American's income is going to defense with that spent on Ukraine being a fraction of that. Sounds like a bargain to me.
You sound like you're ready to send all of your money and kids over there to push Russia out of Crimea. I'm not as committed tbh. If Russia decides to have a massive build up on a NATO border I will revisit my opinion.
Ukraine is the buffer to NATO and Americans being placed in harms way.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Well if you think Russia is leaving Crimea without massive personnel deployment, you're crazy. So the 3 options are, compromise, endless billions more to Ukraine to fund a stalemate, or troops on the ground.
Well if you think Russia is leaving Crimea without massive personnel deployment, you're crazy. So the 3 options are, compromise, endless billions more to Ukraine to fund a stalemate, or troops on the ground.
I added it to my post above, but: the average tax rate in the US is ~15%. Defense makes up ~13% of the US budget. So around 2% of the average American's income is going to defense with that spent on Ukraine being a fraction of that. Sounds like a bargain to me especially when you consider much of that is expanding the capacity of our defense industry.
Well if you think Russia is leaving Crimea without massive personnel deployment, you're crazy. So the 3 options are, compromise, endless billions more to Ukraine to fund a stalemate, or troops on the ground.
I don't think anyone thinks Russia is leaving Crimea. Zelenskyy has pushed back on Russia taking territory they don't currently occupy in a peace deal, but outside of that it seems like Ukraine has conceded they aren't getting more land back.
Imo Trump should tell both of them the lines are getting drawn basically where they are today and a full ceasefire needs to happen. If Ukraine disagrees (they've already offered a full ceasefire that Russia turned down), cut the weapons moving forward. If Russia disagrees, ramp up the weapons to Ukraine until it becomes too painful for Putin to continue to block the peace efforts.
Obviously you don't have any members of your family in harms way or you might think that price to pay is a littler higher.
No, I do not know anyone that lives in Ukraine or Russia. As far as the human cost, Ukraine has the right to make that decision while Russia clearly doesn't care.
Well if you think Russia is leaving Crimea without massive personnel deployment, you're crazy. So the 3 options are, compromise, endless billions more to Ukraine to fund a stalemate, or troops on the ground.
I don't think anyone thinks Russia is leaving Crimea. Zelenskyy has pushed back on Russia taking territory they don't currently occupy in a peace deal, but outside of that it seems like Ukraine has conceded they aren't getting more land back.
Imo Trump should tell both of them the lines are getting drawn basically where they are today and a full ceasefire needs to happen. If Ukraine disagrees (they've already offered a full ceasefire that Russia turned down), cut the weapons moving forward. If Russia disagrees, ramp up the weapons to Ukraine until it becomes too painful for Putin to continue to block the peace efforts.
Lines today don't make any sense when they aren't remotely defensible borders, period. It's more logical to keep the 'oblasts' unitary, as generally that follows river borders/logistics/towns/families etc. Of course, Eastern Ukraine is largely a flat plain, but some semblance of territorial integrity/logic should be established.
But, to be frank, I don't give a damn what the final lines are.
Thank you for the discussion but I'm not convinced Russia was about to collapse. Its like I'm being told "Just wait two weeks" all over again.
I never once said collapse. Hurting to the point they are struggling to advance and or hold the line.
absolute lies.
Not calling you a liar, but your assertions are incorrect. Ukrainians (and Russians for that matter), normal people like you and I, are being killed because Western (US, Britain, and others) meddled in Ukrainian affairs and taunted the beast, and we have continued that killing by propping them up.
This is ****ing nonsense and should have been over years ago. We helped them get into this mess and then we've provided the means to which they can kill off generations of their people. It's disgusting.
They are being killed because Putin decided to invade. He holds 100% of the responsibility and can stop this today if he actually wanted peace.
This line is one of the things that makes this so unsoluable. He bears 100% for ordering the invasion, but he does not bear all the blame for the conflict there. This is very much like the run-up to WW I where neither side was a rational and totally innocent party. What is really needed here is something we don't have -- a very powerful third party that is not part of the problem. Roosevelt was able to broker an end to the Russo-Japanese War from such stance. But Trump's problem is more like Eisenhower's in Korea (the lead up is quite different though) -- he is one of the engaged powers having to by sheer might try to setup a break-even to prevent a greater and more dangerous escalation.
