TacosaurusRex said:

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Is this the right place for this?

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To be honest, it will get more competent use as a hospital than it ever will as a football facility.

UK football has actually been pretty decent the last several years.

They went to the Citrus bowl in 2019, A&M has been an afterthought at best for a higher profile game like that.

cone said:

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so 640k in a year is what would get your attention? a 25% rise in annual deaths? leading cause of death in the nation, more than heart disease?

what a badass

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Dude, cancer kills 600,000+ a year. Go bleed elsewhere. We are tired of the doom and gloom crap. Over 50% of the deaths are from people 75+ years old and most of those are in nursing homes. Again, unless you have an underlying health concern, getting the 'bug" ain't gonna kill you.

I think a lot more people will die from this and that this thing is bad but it's clear as day that the lockdowns were useless and that no one really cared about them. All they did was crush the economy for almost zero benefit. All the lockdowns are at this point is just a method for politicians to gain more control. They aren't slowing anything down at all and are just ruining the lives of many small business owners while enriching Wall St. with free money.

You can believe the virus is really bad and also believe the lockdowns are a complete facade to designed to screw the middle class and initiate wealth transfer.

rgag12 said:

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UK football has actually been pretty decent the last several years.

They went to the Citrus bowl in 2019, A&M has been an afterthought at best for a higher profile game like that.

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No doubt they've been better lately. Gran's handling of the quarterback situation last year was nothing short of masterful.

But they are, and will always be, the SEC's basketball school. Football is an afterthought.

Can't let an opportunity to crack on Kaintuck go to waste.

BMX Bandit said:

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RGLAG85 said:

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cone said:

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so 640k in a year is what would get your attention? a 25% rise in annual deaths? leading cause of death in the nation, more than heart disease?

what a badass

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Now do heart disease and abortions! You don't bat an eye about either of those, which happen every year without fail, so don't act like you give a **** about this. We've already established you're a hoar!

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My word. That escalated quickly.

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I think he's paraphrasing the following Churchill story:

Quote:

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Churchill: "Madam, would you sleep with me for five million pounds?"

Socialite: "My goodness, Mr. Churchill... Well, I suppose... we would have to discuss terms, of course... "

Churchill: "Would you sleep with me for five pounds?"

Socialite: "Mr. Churchill, what kind of woman do you think I am?!"

Churchill: "Madam, we've already established that. Now we are haggling about the price"

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WildcatAg said:

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TacosaurusRex said:

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Is this the right place for this?

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The administration at UK loved this hospital. It was featured in many moving video tributes......they even released one on the day it was announced that it was being closed.

At the same time, Governor Karen yesterday had a judge slap down yet another of his decrees (this one related to travel bans for residents, the previous one related to banning church parking lot services).

Perhaps these are signs that the world will return to "normal" at a quicker pace in the Commonwealth......

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Recall when Andy was wagging his finger at Tennessee for their more relaxed approach and threatening to close the border? From the NYT today:
KY: 145 cases/100K, 7 deaths/100K
TN: 221 cases/100K, 4 deaths/100K

Neither state has experienced limited availability of hospital beds. UK Healthcare had a maximum of 12 COVID positive hospitalizations at one time; the hospital has over 150 negative pressure isolation rooms.

So after taking draconian measures to contain this thing in the Commonwealth that have shown no evidence of efficacy and generated a whopping 30% statewide unemployment rate, he now pretends we have to undergo a phased re-opening of the economy.

But hey, he and his signer are now on Blue Stallion beer cans, so he's got that going for him.

It's defintely more than 20k. Not sure it's 72k, but either way, I've expected a minimum of 200-300K from the first of March. When they put up 2.2mm, I figured that was an overestimate, but again, it will still hit a couple hundred K.

I'll be honest. This thing sucks, but if you really break it down. Lets say 250k die. I'm betting half of those would have died in the next 5 years. If not more than half. And yes, ideally I'd like them to be able to live out those 5 years before someone calls me a monster. But 5 years year from now, 14 million will die(2.8mm per year current rate) without COVID19. My guess is those 14 million and maybe another 50-75k would die with COVID.

In other words, in terms of population, it's not even a blip. And again, that's harsh to say. I almost feel like a monster typing it out, but it's the cold harsh truth. I don't want anyone extra to die, but to get rid of our way of life over it isn't worth it anymore. Hopefully, 5 years from now this is also just a blip on our economy and we are up and running like normal again. We shall see.

beerad12man said:

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It's defintely more than 20k. Not sure it's 72k, but either way, I've expected a minimum of 200-300K from the first of March. When they put up 2.2mm, I figured that was an overestimate, but again, it will still hit a couple hundred K.

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Spoke with someone the other day at S&W who thinks the 72k number is low. She guesses there were many misdiagnoses early on and the idea that patients are being falsely labeled today is way overblown(I agree with that).

She also believes we should open immediately and get on with it. Iys ok tonadmit it's a deadly ass piece of **** virus that the Chinese should pay dearly for and still believe we dont need a 'new normal'

Could very well be. We may even hit half a million(hope not). But that doesn't change the underlying theme. We have to get back to our old normal asap.

Agreed

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I'll be honest. This thing sucks, but if you really break it down. Lets say 250k die. I'm betting half of those would have died in the next 5 years. If not more than half.

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When the author of the now discredit "imperial model" revised the death estimate for the UK, he said half of those would have died in 2020 with or without the Kung Flu showing up.

Rapier108 said:

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Quote:

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I'll be honest. This thing sucks, but if you really break it down. Lets say 250k die. I'm betting half of those would have died in the next 5 years. If not more than half.

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When the author of the now discredit "imperial model" revised the death estimate for the UK, he said half of those would have died in 2020 without or without the Kung Flu showing up.

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We lose 10% of the >80 population each year. I think the Covid-19 rate for that age range is 7%.

Tom Hagen said:

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Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.

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A couple of days old, but here's a good breakdown for anyone still wondering why locking down the economy on advice from a doomsday prediction and then shaming people that questioned it as mathematically illiterate was bad policy.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/15/the_costly_failure_to_update_sky-is-falling_predictions_143215.html

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On March 6, Liz Specht, Ph.D., posted a thread on Twitter that immediately went viral. As of this writing, it has received over 100,000 likes and almost 41,000 retweets, and was republished at Stat News. It purported to "talk math" and reflected the views of "highly esteemed epidemiologists." It insisted it was "not a hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario," and that, while the predictions it contained might be wrong, they would not be "orders of magnitude wrong." It was also catastrophically incorrect.

The crux of Dr. Specht's 35-tweet thread was that the rapid doubling of COVID-19 cases would lead to about 1 million cases by May 5, 4 million by May 11, and so forth. Under this scenario, with a 10% hospitalization rate, we would expect approximately 400,000 hospitalizations by mid-May, which would more than overwhelm the estimated 330,000 available hospital beds in the country. This would combine with a lack of protective equipment for health care workers and lead to them "dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time," to shortages of saline drips and so forth. Half the world would be infected by the summer, and we were implicitly advised to buy dry goods and to prepare not to leave the house.

Interestingly, this thread was wrong not because we managed to bend the curve and stave off the apocalypse; for starters, Dr. Specht described the cancellation of large events and workplace closures as something that would shift things by only days or weeks.

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It wasn't that the lockdowns worked so well, it's that the decisions made around when and what to close (to say nothing of the completely unplanned "how long") were based on predictions that the lockdowns might reduce the duration of the over taxing of our healthcare system. People assented to this and nothing else.

Now the .gov's that won't back off really look like they just prefer the feel of necks under their boots.

Wow, I skimmed over most of Ms. Specht's twitter thread. Sounds a lot like the math experts here on F16. Some of whom have essentially disappeared...

dBoy99 said:

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Wow, I skimmed over most of Ms. Specht's twitter thread. Sounds a lot like the math experts here on F16. Some of whom have essentially disappeared...

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Highly likely many were just repeating her stuff, but without even citing the source.

Shame is a great reason to disappear.

dBoy99 said:

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Wow, I skimmed over most of Ms. Specht's twitter thread. Sounds a lot like the math experts here on F16. Some of whom have essentially disappeared...

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Still here and still closer than the original models

Cone is what weird dude also the number 1 corna bro.

Yes he is. I think he stays one the coronobro forum now

rfvgy12 said:

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dBoy99 said:

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Wow, I skimmed over most of Ms. Specht's twitter thread. Sounds a lot like the math experts here on F16. Some of whom have essentially disappeared...

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Still here and still closer than the original models

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You're not one of the big potbangers I recall, unless you changed your handle. So, I don't remember your predictions or math lessons.

It really is a shame. My fear is now when we do have a significant problem in the future nobody will trust until it's too late.

you rang?

dBoy99 said:

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Wow, I skimmed over most of Ms. Specht's twitter thread. Sounds a lot like the math experts here on F16. Some of whom have essentially disappeared...

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Because saying anything on this board is useless when you're met with nothing but strawmen and repeatedly debunked crap. Most of the posters here are the pigeons kicking checkers around and acting like they won something.

Sumatriptan said:

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Cone is what weird dude also the number 1 corna bro.

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He may have been but I think he's changed some of his opinions in light of the facts and circumstances. Maybe I'm misreading his posts though

ABATTBQ11 said:

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dBoy99 said:

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Wow, I skimmed over most of Ms. Specht's twitter thread. Sounds a lot like the math experts here on F16. Some of whom have essentially disappeared...

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Because saying anything on this board is useless when you're met with nothing but strawmen and repeatedly debunked crap. Most of the posters here are the pigeons kicking checkers around and acting like they won something.

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Also you're not allowed much leeway or discretion with your word choice. If you make one mistake, you get piled on. Prognosticating here is a dangerous game. Admitting your mistake helps but so many aren't accustomed to such concessions. Hubris has been the downfall of many a poster.

you're right

I'm nowhere near as alarmed as I was in late February

the NYC serology study and the hospitalization rates during their outbreak was a massive game changer and has barely been reported as such

1% IFR is still really grim, but it's not hospitalizing young people at the +10% rates that seemed so potentially cataclysmic

now the problem has reduced to one of slowing the overall spread via low cost approach and diverting all resources to protecting the vulnerable (since we can effectively risk rank now). of course, we don't have the will to do that - but the overall problem has been greatly simplified whether we like it or not

see below from Spain data

ABATTBQ11 said:

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dBoy99 said:

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Wow, I skimmed over most of Ms. Specht's twitter thread. Sounds a lot like the math experts here on F16. Some of whom have essentially disappeared...

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Because saying anything on this board is useless when you're met with nothing but strawmen and repeatedly debunked crap. Most of the posters here are the pigeons kicking checkers around and acting like they won something.

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Oh you mean saying things like there will be exponential growth and then when questioned, just insulting people that they don't understand math? That is useless?

Debunked crap like "Is it really worth destroying our economy?"

Too many experts and smart guys berated and insulted people who questioned the lock downs and the virulence/infectiousness of the virus. Well, wtf happened to them?

It's awesome always being right, even this time about this gigantic nothing burger. One that only liars and pantywaists worried about.

dBoy99 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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dBoy99 said:

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Wow, I skimmed over most of Ms. Specht's twitter thread. Sounds a lot like the math experts here on F16. Some of whom have essentially disappeared...

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Because saying anything on this board is useless when you're met with nothing but strawmen and repeatedly debunked crap. Most of the posters here are the pigeons kicking checkers around and acting like they won something.

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Oh you mean saying things like there will be exponential growth and then when questioned, just insulting people that they don't understand math? That is useless?

Debunked crap like "Is it really worth destroying our economy?"

Too many experts and smart guys berated and insulted people who questioned the lock downs and the virulence/infectiousness of the virus. Well, wtf happened to them?

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Yes.

The internet being what it is, there will always be crap information. To the extent people find it compelling, it's usually fairly easily refuted.

When you have information, or compelling questions that are not crap, and all you get in response is an appeal to authority followed by an appeal to emotion to end the discussion, it's going to leave a bad taste in a lot of mouths. A lot of credentialed smart people went as far as they could to scare as many people into compliance as possible. After granting their wishes and subsequently having their approach invalidated, they change the subject, move the goal posts and start the straw manning themselves.

The whole thing looks like political opportunism from top to bottom, executed by people that have no talent or experience to speak of apart from cashing in on crap under the table and shifting blame away from themselves. Trump's response was supposedly racist when he started out, then he was a buffoon for asking people to consider the costs. The virus was no big deal and everyone should go to parades and Chinatown until it wasn't then "the alternative is death" until Georgia, Florida and others didn't play into their hands, and now, some deaths just become unavoidable, but please ignore those specific .gov actions made the real problems worse while their wet dream police state lockdowns didn't help.

I admit I bought some reusable masks in January after some of the news coming out of China was kind of concerning.

My plan was that if we did have to stay locked down at least someone in my house might have to go out for food or work or whatever.

Never worn the mask never will but it's fun to see the sheep in Austin wearing them everywhere they go.

dBoy99 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.

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Read this OP again, slowly and think that it was posted 1 week into Trump's "15 days to slow the spread".

OP acted like the zombie apocalypse was imminent. Where's my very disturbing math lesson?

What about a very disturbing lesson in humility?

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OP has been wetting his pants since February

Just a terrible display from someone who you should be able to take seriously, and trust in