cone said:

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I remember when saying we'd be over 100k in the calendar year got you called a doomer

goalposts got moved tremendously in 60 days

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I remember when we weren't trying to overwhelm the hospitals.

Mission accomplished

RGLAG85 said:

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dBoy99 said:

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k2 is not a virus hugger. He's just a super hi-level intelligence guy who breaks down complex subjects like epidemiology, virology, statistics, genetics, and immunology (just to name a few) for us rubes on forum 16. He's a self-taught, super genius expert. He doesn't pick sides - he's above all that. He is an uninvolved 3rd party, just compiling knowledge and sharing it with us. He doesn't care if we all live or die or crash the economy - his purpose is to share information and try to enlighten us.

Think of him as an unbiased, without ulterior motives Dr. Tony Fauci.

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Here's the illogical problem with the whole"overshoot" narrative that is just one more thing these super genius experts seem to miss when they see these talking points and say, "hey, that makes sense" without any common sense examining. You won't over shoot 70% unless people actively seek vulnerable people to intentionally infect. Why you ask and they never do? We can rush to herd immunity but there are safety catches that start to automatically slow this thing down dramatically. Between 30-50%, the infection rate drops dramatically because host begin to lose receptors to spread to. You may overshoot 50% but at that point natural infection reduction starts to put a hard break on the spread. You want to say you can overshoot 50%, ok, but at that point the susceptible will be so spread out that it naturally begins to flame out. You'll then, short of actively seeking receptors, gradually get to the 70% that likely kills it. I can't keep you in shackles if I give you a logical prediction of how to reach herd immunity quickly because it would blow my desire of scaring the **** out of you. Now I'm not saying K2 has that narrative, he's just regurgitating. Hence the "stay calm, all is well" you didn't understand.

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Still wanting to stick with the 75,000 - 90,000 death projection? As we hit 72,000 today.

BoydCrowder13 said:

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RGLAG85 said:

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dBoy99 said:

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k2 is not a virus hugger. He's just a super hi-level intelligence guy who breaks down complex subjects like epidemiology, virology, statistics, genetics, and immunology (just to name a few) for us rubes on forum 16. He's a self-taught, super genius expert. He doesn't pick sides - he's above all that. He is an uninvolved 3rd party, just compiling knowledge and sharing it with us. He doesn't care if we all live or die or crash the economy - his purpose is to share information and try to enlighten us.

Think of him as an unbiased, without ulterior motives Dr. Tony Fauci.

---

Here's the illogical problem with the whole"overshoot" narrative that is just one more thing these super genius experts seem to miss when they see these talking points and say, "hey, that makes sense" without any common sense examining. You won't over shoot 70% unless people actively seek vulnerable people to intentionally infect. Why you ask and they never do? We can rush to herd immunity but there are safety catches that start to automatically slow this thing down dramatically. Between 30-50%, the infection rate drops dramatically because host begin to lose receptors to spread to. You may overshoot 50% but at that point natural infection reduction starts to put a hard break on the spread. You want to say you can overshoot 50%, ok, but at that point the susceptible will be so spread out that it naturally begins to flame out. You'll then, short of actively seeking receptors, gradually get to the 70% that likely kills it. I can't keep you in shackles if I give you a logical prediction of how to reach herd immunity quickly because it would blow my desire of scaring the **** out of you. Now I'm not saying K2 has that narrative, he's just regurgitating. Hence the "stay calm, all is well" you didn't understand.

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Still wanting to stick with the 75,000 - 90,000 death projection? As we hit 72,000 today.

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Actual deaths from covid, or deaths from other things but had contracted covid, or deaths of people who could spell covid? Several different numbers.

BoydCrowder13 said:

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RGLAG85 said:

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dBoy99 said:

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k2 is not a virus hugger. He's just a super hi-level intelligence guy who breaks down complex subjects like epidemiology, virology, statistics, genetics, and immunology (just to name a few) for us rubes on forum 16. He's a self-taught, super genius expert. He doesn't pick sides - he's above all that. He is an uninvolved 3rd party, just compiling knowledge and sharing it with us. He doesn't care if we all live or die or crash the economy - his purpose is to share information and try to enlighten us.

Think of him as an unbiased, without ulterior motives Dr. Tony Fauci.

---

Here's the illogical problem with the whole"overshoot" narrative that is just one more thing these super genius experts seem to miss when they see these talking points and say, "hey, that makes sense" without any common sense examining. You won't over shoot 70% unless people actively seek vulnerable people to intentionally infect. Why you ask and they never do? We can rush to herd immunity but there are safety catches that start to automatically slow this thing down dramatically. Between 30-50%, the infection rate drops dramatically because host begin to lose receptors to spread to. You may overshoot 50% but at that point natural infection reduction starts to put a hard break on the spread. You want to say you can overshoot 50%, ok, but at that point the susceptible will be so spread out that it naturally begins to flame out. You'll then, short of actively seeking receptors, gradually get to the 70% that likely kills it. I can't keep you in shackles if I give you a logical prediction of how to reach herd immunity quickly because it would blow my desire of scaring the **** out of you. Now I'm not saying K2 has that narrative, he's just regurgitating. Hence the "stay calm, all is well" you didn't understand.

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Still wanting to stick with the 75,000 - 90,000 death projection? As we hit 72,000 today.

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Still got 2 months to go. If I'm wrong, don't give a ***** Still not even remotely worth the shutdown. Let me know when we get to 640k, then I'll blink.

so 640k in a year is what would get your attention? a 25% rise in annual deaths? leading cause of death in the nation, more than heart disease?

what a badass

cone said:

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so 640k in a year is what would get your attention? a 25% rise in annual deaths? leading cause of death in the nation, more than heart disease?

what a badass

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Now do heart disease and abortions! You don't bat an eye about either of those, which happen every year without fail, so don't act like you give a **** about this. We've already established you're a hoar!

RGLAG85 said:

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cone said:

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so 640k in a year is what would get your attention? a 25% rise in annual deaths? leading cause of death in the nation, more than heart disease?

what a badass

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Now do heart disease and abortions! You don't bat an eye about either of those, which happen every year without fail, so don't act like you give a **** about this. We've already established you're a hoar!

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My word. That escalated quickly.

RGLAG85 said:

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cone said:

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so 640k in a year is what would get your attention? a 25% rise in annual deaths? leading cause of death in the nation, more than heart disease?

what a badass

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Now do heart disease and abortions! You don't bat an eye about either of those, which happen every year without fail, so don't act like you give a **** about this. We've already established you're a hoar!

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a hoar? lolwut

cone said:

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a hoar? lolwut

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Do you TexAgs bro? How do you feel about the 30,000,000 that have lost their jobs or the business that have already gone into foreclosure or bankruptcies? Yeah, you're the real badass!

BMX Bandit said:

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RGLAG85 said:

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cone said:

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so 640k in a year is what would get your attention? a 25% rise in annual deaths? leading cause of death in the nation, more than heart disease?

what a badass

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Now do heart disease and abortions! You don't bat an eye about either of those, which happen every year without fail, so don't act like you give a **** about this. We've already established you're a hoar!

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My word. That escalated quickly.

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We all are. It's just some of us aren't trying to negotiate a new price for a virus.

Increased testing = increased cases. It's that simple. The fearmongers will use it to scare friends and family.

More tests mean more diagnoses!! Scam scam city!!!

oh everything sucks, you don't have to tell me

don't worry, I'm definitely more worried now about the coming depression

Charlie Kelley said:

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cone said:

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oh everything sucks, you don't have to tell me

don't worry, I'm definitely more worried now about the coming depression

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Oh now you are? Weren't you one of the main Karen's from a month ago?

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does being a Karen mean you don't want to catch the bug

if so, still a Karen

also the IFR is ~1%

and if things are open that doesn't mean people will consume

you can walk and chew bubble gum

k2aggie07 said:

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Forgive me, but the overshoot dynamic is exactly the result of what you're describing. The herd immunity number and the number of people left uninfected aren't the same. The difference is overshoot... all of the overshoot is the number of infections that happen after that inflection point. But that's all theory for an unmitigated outbreak, which we don't have, which isn't going to happen, so it doesn't matter.

The reason I brought up overshoot was because there's a thought that the area under the curve is the same regardless of how fast the outbreak happens. It's not. Herd immunity is fixed, but overshoot isn't.

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Dude, I get the overshoot theory. But at 70% it's simply a stupid, illogical theory and I explained clearly why. It comes from all the studies you love to link that talk about it but you're now on to a new one but never stop to question the logic when these others have given you enough information to at least question this one. But you don't and never have. You just read it and say, hey, that sounds cool. I get it, you mocked me for expecting honesty and accuracy in these models, numbers and projections. Kinda like you still can't see your own contradiction of your .66% IFR.

I love to give visuals, that's my job, so here you go on the overshoot theory.

K2's new flavor of the week epidemiologist starts touting we can't rush through this herd immunity because of overshoot which may be 10s of thousands more than we get if we ease into 70%. It might even get to 90% unnecessarily which would result in many more deaths. K2 says brilliant, but the epidemiologist says we still have dumbasses like RGLAG85 so I'm going to illustrate it. I'm going to run 70 yards as fast as I can. He lines up and takes off on a dead sprint. He hits the 70 yard line at full speed and then it takes him to the 80 or 85 yard line to stop. He proclaims that's overshoot and K2 jumps up and down in glee saying see, see, I told you so, he's brilliant and shouldn't be questioned. Now dumbass RGLAG85 is shaking his head and saying, did K2 forget the effects that his last weeks flavor of the week taught us about the check points in herd immunity that take place between 30-50%. Now the speed we hit those brakes will have an effect on how well they slow this down but they're still there, they just might not cripple the virus like they could have. But they're still there. While that dumbass RGLAG85 is trying to get K2 to tamp his enthusiasm about the demonstration, K2 hits the line and says watch, I'm going to do it. K2 takes off at full speed but doesn't see the trip line at the 30yd line. He hits it, stumbles a bit but keeps going. Not quite as fast but still moving pretty good. He gets to the 50yd line where that dumbass RGLAG85 is waiting with a 2x4. RGLAG85 smacks him with the 2x4 across the stomach and K2 goes crashing down at the 60(overshoot) K2 manages to get up and trots thru the 70yd line, stopping at the 71.5 yard line and says, I'm done. K2 wonders too himself, why didn't I see those breaks? That dumbass RGLAG85 walks off smiling saying, you're right, there was overshoot.

annie88 said:

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Staff. Please Move this to covid forum

[CAN'T MERGE THREADS, ONLY LOCK, DELETE, OR MOVE FORUMS. -STAFF]

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Why move it?

Is this the right place for this?

What the ****

aggie doc

BMX Bandit said:

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RGLAG85 said:

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cone said:

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so 640k in a year is what would get your attention? a 25% rise in annual deaths? leading cause of death in the nation, more than heart disease?

what a badass

---

Now do heart disease and abortions! You don't bat an eye about either of those, which happen every year without fail, so don't act like you give a **** about this. We've already established you're a hoar!

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My word. That escalated quickly.

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swimmerbabe11 said:

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aggie doc

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I always laugh at these silly "airway boxes" being developed. They are cumbersome, likely unnecessary if using proper PPE, and make the procedure of intubation more difficult. It would actually be more useful to use a clear trash bag with arm holes torn into it (which I actually did use for one intubation) prior to getting PAPRs at our hospital. It cost a few cents and provided much more freedom of movement and the ability for assistance to be provided during intubation which is useful for emergency intubation situations..

TacosaurusRex said:

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Is this the right place for this?

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Don't post stuff like that. The anti-Trump folks, along with the pro-virus crowd, will start shooting people and fill that place to capacity and blame it all on covid 19

that was probably built because he was having trouble getting access to much needed PPE.

I dunno.. I'm not a doctor, but Dr (lieutenant colonel? which takes precedence?) Ruhl is an incredibly smart guy/doctor and a really great person... so I'm happy he is getting kudos because hes been working his butt off with this stuff...so if he feels safer and it helps him do his work, go him.

on the bright side, building it probably created some jobs

BoydCrowder13 said:

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Still wanting to stick with the 75,000 - 90,000 death projection? As we hit 72,000 today.

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Actual covid-19 death toll probably closer to 20,000 than 72,000....

Hospitals don't get jack from Uncle Sam when 92 year old mee-maw dies with pancreatic cancer. But if she happens to test positive for SARS-CoV-2? JACKPOT!!!!

dBoy99 said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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Still wanting to stick with the 75,000 - 90,000 death projection? As we hit 72,000 today.

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Actual covid-19 death toll probably closer to 20,000 than 72,000....

Hospitals don't get jack from Uncle Sam when 92 year old mee-maw dies with pancreatic cancer. But if she happens to test positive for SARS-CoV-2? JACKPOT!!!!

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Got an numbers behind that 20,000 figure? Or are we just making it up?

I don't believe the unemployment rate is 17%. The liberals will do anything to make Trump look bad. All my friends still have their jobs. Based on that anecdotal evidence, I think the unemployment rate is around 5%.

TacosaurusRex said:

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Is this the right place for this?

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The administration at UK loved this hospital. It was featured in many moving video tributes......they even released one on the day it was announced that it was being closed.

At the same time, Governor Karen yesterday had a judge slap down yet another of his decrees (this one related to travel bans for residents, the previous one related to banning church parking lot services).

Perhaps these are signs that the world will return to "normal" at a quicker pace in the Commonwealth......

BoydCrowder13 said:

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dBoy99 said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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Still wanting to stick with the 75,000 - 90,000 death projection? As we hit 72,000 today.

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Actual covid-19 death toll probably closer to 20,000 than 72,000....

Hospitals don't get jack from Uncle Sam when 92 year old mee-maw dies with pancreatic cancer. But if she happens to test positive for SARS-CoV-2? JACKPOT!!!!

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Got an numbers behind that 20,000 figure? Or are we just making it up?

I don't believe the unemployment rate is 17%. The liberals will do anything to make Trump look bad. All my friends still have their jobs. Based on that anecdotal evidence, I think the unemployment rate is around 5%.

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This is a discussion about covid-19, so like the experts, I am just making **** up. But even my wild ass guess of 20,000 is probably closer to being correct than the 72,000 covid-19 deaths listed by WHO, Johns Hopkins, worldmeters, etc, etc, etc.

The inflated death toll number is NOT a conspiracy. The directives on how to count covid-19 deaths are published and Birx even commented on it. The numbers are inflated on purpose.