Our government bit. Trump had no choice. The Dems were licking their chops to give away free stuff. $2T later, here we are. Add the stock market into that if you want.

The online surveys to even qualify for a test are seemingly being used to fit the data narrative and to ensure the mortality rates remain at a "scary" range. They have no choice at this point. Any other approach and the country will rise up against them in another week or so.

The graphs showing data points are great and much appreciated. But it's striking that even a simple tabular list of the daily growing nbr of confirmed CV cases in the U.S. in the month of March paints a clear picture. Every 8.0-8.5-9.0 days...something happens.

Will it continue to increase at the same rate to 1M (April 5th or 6th) and 10M (April 15th) ? The shelter in place, work from home, bar & restaurant closures, school & university closings, group gathering cancellations and prohibitions, and other strong non-pharmaceutical measures undertaken should start showing a reduction in the rate of increase by April 5th, I hope.

3/1 89
3/2 105
3/3 125
3/4 159
3/5 227
3/6 331
3/7 444
3/8 564
3/9 728
3/10 1000
3/11 1267
3/12 1645
3/13 2204
3/14 2826
3/15 3505
3/16 4466
3/17 6135
3/18 8760
3/19 13229
3/20 18763
3/21 25740
3/22 34276
3/23 42663
3/24 52976
3/25 65273
3/26 82135 and climbing as today goes fwd

"Spahn and Sain, then pray for rain."

That's the real question. I gets straight up horrifying in April with these growths. Surely, it's going to bend soon, but there just isn't any clear evidence of it yet.

If shelter in place were to immediately stop all spread, I think 10K death toll is almost guaranteed without some medical miracle.

We need a 30 day shutdown to stop the spread and millions and millions of tests to isolate it.

Our school systems have to be essentially fully functional in some capacity by this fall or else our society will be in shambles.

Encouraging news from Washington state: Leveling Off

Bump since the other exponential growth thread has gone wheels off.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.

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Philip J Fry said:

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Tom Hagen said:

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Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.

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You can't view this graph? Are you blind or just unwilling to open your eyes?

Quote:

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crowman2010 said:

And 12k of the 14k are in NY...

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Texas is a whole 5 days away from where New York is right now. At the end of the week, we will be where NY is right now.

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Lester Freamon said:

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500k cases by tomorrow and a million by Wednesday? What are you smoking buddy?

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It's basic math

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Two weeks.

barnyard1996 said:

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Two weeks.

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Two MORE weeks.

Better yet, they're still leading the cheers.

"Two bits! Four bits! Six bits! A dollar! All for the virus, stand up and holler!"

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.

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Wow. Two and a half weeks later and we are at 1.5M cases globally.

Aged like milk.

Joe Exotic said:

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So this thread is just like the others? People that get basic math, people that don't, and Fox going full 3rd reich to protect his 401k.



What time do we repeat it all tomorrow?

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DallasAg 94 said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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Two weeks.

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Two MORE weeks.

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wait a minute...


i recognize this


THE ZOO

wait til next year, then we'll get the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP!!
or possibly the year after that. but probably next year.

P.C. Principal said:

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Tom Hagen said:

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Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.

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No. Stop saying this stuff.

Increased number of cases is going to result in increased deaths. That's what people are warning about. We don't need to wait until hundreds or thousands of people are dying every day to take drastic action.

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Take action? Sure.
Take "drastic" action? Well... you're going to need to specify what you mean by that.

Never, at any time, should civil liberties be drawn on with a blank check handed to politicians.

Not everyone has the same risk profile, so "Drastic" action is going to be different for different people. Those at strong risk should of course choose to take strong action for themselves. Those at low risk should of course be free to take low action for themselves.

dBoy99 said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Tom Hagen said:

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Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.

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You can't view this graph? Are you blind or just unwilling to open your eyes?

Quote:

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crowman2010 said:

And 12k of the 14k are in NY...

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Texas is a whole 5 days away from where New York is right now. At the end of the week, we will be where NY is right now.

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This is funny. I was thinking about this very thread today. Do the three posters who called all of us idiots for calling out their outlandish projections as garbage have any follow up to their original garbage?

The only thing that appears to be exponential are the unemployment numbers.

The Hunan virus is bad enough but the amount of likely overhype was apparent to those of us who have watched how the MSM operates when reporting things like hurricanes or Democrats losing elections.

I was just out for a walk in South Austin...the temp was only about 85 but the sun's radiant energy was hot enough to help "herd immunity", in my humble opinion.

Disagreements on policy and reporting current models is not cheerleading. Nobody is rooting for deaths from the virus. Ridiculous.

I wouldn't be too hard on the exponential modelers. In a meeting to prepare our own hospital system for the expected wave of cases and hospitalizations, the outcomes of three independent models were presented using common assumptions about the bug. The peak expected beds required to meet demand ranged from 200 to over 15,000 in our service area. We planned according to a model our own head of epidemiology developed with her faculty that was coming in around 8000 and to peak in late May. The last census from our hospital I saw showed less that 10 cases requiring hospitalization. This state was very aggressive with shut downs. So it's fair to say that these measures were effective at delaying spread.

Now I fear the "other worst". We were so effective that it will take much, much longer to achieve herd immunity and when we finally open-up we will have done so much damage to the economy that we won't. Jobs lost will take years to come back, not months.

Cannot blue star this enough.

AND, corporations and small business also need to heed this lesson in how to properly run companies and manage people. This whole Covid-19 ordeal has been a macrocosm of what I've been dealing with in my day to day job. Experts in NYC deploying massive cookie cutter policies (plus SJW HR hiring and promotional opps) is destroying the livelihoods of top performers. It ain't just 'big government' that is the problem. Big Gov't is a reflection of culture.

202 deaths in Texas.

I've appreciated your input throughout this. Thanks for your insight.

barnyard1996 said:

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202 deaths in Texas.

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And about 200 in auto accidents. So what?

wbt5845 said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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202 deaths in Texas.

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And about 200 in auto accidents. So what?

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My point is, can we go back to our lives now?