Threadbare said:

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policywonk98 said:

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New cases or cases that have been identified by testing?

There is a big difference.

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Cleary this number is profoundly impacted by the increased testing availability.

A simply stunning omission from the OP...

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It's not like all of these people had this for months and we're simply seeing the result of them just now being tested. You're seeing higher numbers because more people are showing symptoms and seeking tests.

Deaths are multiplying exponentially too. How does increased testing as an explanation for increased cases explain that? It doesn't.

The spread is exponential. End of story

Serious question, is the rate of testing also increasing exponentially?

If the virus is both spreading, and testing is ramping up, doesn't that effect the model? Or no?

That works under the presumption that tests are available at will....

We've only been able to test a few thousand to this point, but the number available is growing at huge rate, correct?

That DOES effect things, along side the actual spread.

I'm tired of everything not "apocalypse is upon us" being dismissed out of hand..... yall are starting to sound like climate changers with "the numbers are settled "

The_Fox said:

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FriendlyAg said:

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Rattler12 said:

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Sid Farkas said:

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Social Distanced said:

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He doesn't seem angry to me.

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Yeah. Not angry. But really really wrong

When this is over we will all likely know and love someone who either dies or is permanently damaged by the virus, even with extreme measures in place

However it could be even worse if we just relax and go back to normal life now.

I happen to believe government involvement will almost completely recede when the virus does. its easy to get frustrated when the people who disagree seem to have no appreciation for the complexity of the situation and simply go full throttle on the "evil gubmit" meme (it just sounds so dumb in this situation)

...I said it here before: anyone who ignores the government orders and their families should be denied a hospital bed and ventilator and be held criminally and civilly liable for anyone they make sick (directly or indirectly)

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I already have 15, 20 maybe 30 people or more that I have known and loved and that have died from something. Life has gone on. Deaths are just as much a part of living as births are. Bad things happen to good people. This will pass and life will go on. I choose not to live in fear and panic mode. Does that make me really really wrong?

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No one is disagreeing. The measures that are being taken are there to reduce death. Are you against reducing death?

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Possibly? What is the economic cost per life saved?

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Ok, ok. That was an unfair question to ask. I don't disagree with you, actually. That being said, I doubt the markets would be reacting any differently in the current situation.

Let me rephrase-- If a doctor looks you in the eyes and ask you to do your part to stay home in order to save someone's life, would you?

It appears that is what the medical community has strongly asked for and suggested to politicians, regardless of political ideology.

Ag_of_08 said:

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Serious question, is the rate of testing also increasing exponentially?

If the virus is both spreading, and testing is ramping up, doesn't that effect the model? Or no?

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Something I am also having trouble getting my mind around. And unlike many I do get math.

If the testing remains consistent across the population than no, it really doesnt. But if they are increasing testing at a variable rate it would be impossible, or at least extremely difficult, to model.

If the democratic party didnt embrace totalitarianism so much and have a propensity to not let a crisis go to waste then a lot of us would be less worried about what this country might look like post pandemic. When dems have used fear mongering to attempt to drum up support for the next big govt power grab I dont fault folks for being skeptical and cautious of govt action and the repercussions.

tl;dr- We shouldn't use the constitution for toilet paper in any crisis.

Bo Darville said:

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So this thread is just like the others? People that get basic math, people that don't, and Fox going full 3rd reich to protect his 401k.



What time do we repeat it all tomorrow?

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Wow, that made me laugh. That was a good one.

agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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That's fine. She's self quarantining through all this as best she can. I'm more worried about what our country is about to go through. We have a tsunami coming and people are still on the beach.

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Its called freedom.

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Or utter stupidity, depending on your view on this matter.

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Liberty is not stupid. I can respect your right to live your life as you choose. Try doing that.

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That's quite the reach there my friend. But please keep flying the flag.

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I will. Hopefully you'll find that nanny state comforting.

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LOL. That's hilarious.

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Do you have anything to add other than your childish behavior? Please block me.

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Sure, since you asked,

THe fear mongering is not coming from people that are listening to experts and are at least trying to understand what we are trying to do. The fear mongering is coming from people who see all of this as some front to individual liberties and freedom.

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My concern is the destruction of our economy and people losing their jobs, thus preventing them from caring for themselves and others. It's people like you alarmists trying to frame me as not caring about the sick. I very much do. I just think if people are so scared of this disease, then be an adult and handle it yourself. Lock yourself down. If I chose to continue to live and work, I am also putting myself at jeopardy. You just focus on what I might do to someone else who has all the abilities to remove themselves from the risk as they see fit.

Here's the million dollar question..what is our standard going forward? Do we lock down for pneumonia? Why not? Diarrhea? why not? The common cold? why not. A generational monster has now been created because of a thin veil of false security put forth by politicians. Playing your game, why do you want people to lose their livelihoods?

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First, I don't see how I am an alarmist. People screaming about liberties are the alarmists.

I am also very concerned about the economy and people losing their jobs. I am almost certainly going to lose mine. But I would not consider listening to CDC projections and acting on them as being alarmist. If those predictions are even remotely true the economy was going to be wrecked anyway. It's not like this was going to run it's course and not have a devastating effect on the economy. That is, again, if you are willing to believe people who know much more about this than you do.

Your million dollar question is not one that anyone really needs to answer. This is not the flu. It is not the common cold. It is not pneumonia(by itself) It is not Diarrhea. That paragraph itself is a perfect example of real fear mongering.

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Take the information the CDC is giving and draw your own conclusions. The projections (death) aren't materializing. Also remember the CDC won't be held responsible for being wrong. Hopefully nobody thinks we're doing all this to keep people from getting sick. And you're wrong. If you support these control measures you are the alarmist. Using history as a model, no rational person could support these control measures given the risk(low).

Romello said:

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If the democratic party didnt embrace totalitarianism so much and have a propensity to not let a crisis go to waste then a lot of us would be less worried about what this country might look like post pandemic. When dems have used fear mongering to attempt to drum up support for the next big govt power grab I dont fault folks for being skeptical and cautious of govt action and the repercussions.

tl;dr- We shouldn't use the constitution for toilet paper in any crisis.

---

This would make sense if it were democrats proposing all this alone. But it's not. Everyone from Trump to Abbott to Ted Cruz and all those in between are on board.


The math flunkies on this board seem to be the lone holdouts.

Romello said:

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If the democratic party didnt embrace totalitarianism so much and have a propensity to not let a crisis go to waste then a lot of us would be less worried about what this country might look like post pandemic. When dems have used fear mongering to attempt to drum up support for the next big govt power grab I dont fault folks for being skeptical and cautious of govt action and the repercussions.

tl;dr- We shouldn't use the constitution for toilet paper in any crisis.

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Except, non Dems are also strongly pushing for all of this. Our President and Abbott, and I am sure many others.

I am sure Rob will be along to tell me that I still haven't named a non-liberal.

agsalaska said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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Serious question, is the rate of testing also increasing exponentially?

If the virus is both spreading, and testing is ramping up, doesn't that effect the model? Or no?

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Something I am also having trouble getting my mind around. And unlike many I do get math.

If the testing remains consistent across the population than no, it really doesnt. But if they are increasing testing at a variable rate it would be impossible, or at least extremely difficult, to model.

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I'm both at risk, and currently functioning as a responder... I dont deny that this thing is really, really bad. I just dont understand, and I'm a **** poor mathematician, how we're accurately extrapolating an infection rate, without taking into account the availability and prevalence of testing.

Good lord, they're still only testing people here that are hospitalized

The_Fox said:

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FriendlyAg said:

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Rattler12 said:

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Sid Farkas said:

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Social Distanced said:

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He doesn't seem angry to me.

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Yeah. Not angry. But really really wrong

When this is over we will all likely know and love someone who either dies or is permanently damaged by the virus, even with extreme measures in place

However it could be even worse if we just relax and go back to normal life now.

I happen to believe government involvement will almost completely recede when the virus does. its easy to get frustrated when the people who disagree seem to have no appreciation for the complexity of the situation and simply go full throttle on the "evil gubmit" meme (it just sounds so dumb in this situation)

...I said it here before: anyone who ignores the government orders and their families should be denied a hospital bed and ventilator and be held criminally and civilly liable for anyone they make sick (directly or indirectly)

---

I already have 15, 20 maybe 30 people or more that I have known and loved and that have died from something. Life has gone on. Deaths are just as much a part of living as births are. Bad things happen to good people. This will pass and life will go on. I choose not to live in fear and panic mode. Does that make me really really wrong?

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No one is disagreeing. The measures that are being taken are there to reduce death. Are you against reducing death?

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Possibly? What is the economic cost per life saved?

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I don't know, and I'm thankful I don't have to be the one to make that decision.

What I do know is the current cost incurred is less then when we do the exact same thing, except this time after a much greater percentage of the population gets sick first.

Society will pull the emergency break with an outbreak like this eventually no matter what, the only question is when and how much damage is done prior to that decision.

Captain Pablo said:

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Same hysterical bed wetters, different thread

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Lots of Harry R. Trumans on these threads.

Same idiots yelling at others we dont' get math.

Philip J Fry said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Jesus ****ing Christ. Wake up. We will be LUCKY if it's only a few hundred thousand dead. LUCKY.

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Ok. What do you want TexAgs posters to do after they wake up?

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Stop pretending that this is the flu. Stop pretending that a 1% death rate is meaningful when once the hospital system collapses will be closer to 10%.

If social distancing works, maybe we'll keep it at 1%, but we are not on a good trajectory.

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Omg stop with the drama and over exaggeration/panic!!

Take A chill pill or two, quit looking at the news and stay home. Problem solved for you!

PS-I am truly sorry to hear about your wife, that one sucks absolut balls! : (

We are a nation of almost 400 million. Perspective is a good thing when looking at numbers in the thousands.

Troutslime said:

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agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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That's fine. She's self quarantining through all this as best she can. I'm more worried about what our country is about to go through. We have a tsunami coming and people are still on the beach.

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Its called freedom.

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Or utter stupidity, depending on your view on this matter.

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Liberty is not stupid. I can respect your right to live your life as you choose. Try doing that.

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That's quite the reach there my friend. But please keep flying the flag.

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I will. Hopefully you'll find that nanny state comforting.

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LOL. That's hilarious.

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Do you have anything to add other than your childish behavior? Please block me.

---

Sure, since you asked,

THe fear mongering is not coming from people that are listening to experts and are at least trying to understand what we are trying to do. The fear mongering is coming from people who see all of this as some front to individual liberties and freedom.

---

My concern is the destruction of our economy and people losing their jobs, thus preventing them from caring for themselves and others. It's people like you alarmists trying to frame me as not caring about the sick. I very much do. I just think if people are so scared of this disease, then be an adult and handle it yourself. Lock yourself down. If I chose to continue to live and work, I am also putting myself at jeopardy. You just focus on what I might do to someone else who has all the abilities to remove themselves from the risk as they see fit.

Here's the million dollar question..what is our standard going forward? Do we lock down for pneumonia? Why not? Diarrhea? why not? The common cold? why not. A generational monster has now been created because of a thin veil of false security put forth by politicians. Playing your game, why do you want people to lose their livelihoods?

---

First, I don't see how I am an alarmist. People screaming about liberties are the alarmists.

I am also very concerned about the economy and people losing their jobs. I am almost certainly going to lose mine. But I would not consider listening to CDC projections and acting on them as being alarmist. If those predictions are even remotely true the economy was going to be wrecked anyway. It's not like this was going to run it's course and not have a devastating effect on the economy. That is, again, if you are willing to believe people who know much more about this than you do.

Your million dollar question is not one that anyone really needs to answer. This is not the flu. It is not the common cold. It is not pneumonia(by itself) It is not Diarrhea. That paragraph itself is a perfect example of real fear mongering.

---

Take the information the CDC is giving and draw your own conclusions. The projections (death) aren't materializing. Also remember the CDC won't be held responsible for being wrong. Hopefully nobody thinks we're doing all this to keep people from getting sick. And you're wrong. If you support these control measures you are the alarmist. Using history as a model, no rational person could support these control measures given the risk(low).

---

We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

Sure wish people could wrap their heads around the number of cases haven't doubled; the number of tests have quintupled.

Like saying I caught 10 fish yesterday and 20 today so the number of fish in the lake doubled. Ummm no

At least say "known" cases if you want to go down that path.

Captain Pablo said:

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Sid Farkas said:

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Social Distanced said:

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He doesn't seem angry to me.

---

Yeah. Not angry. But really really wrong

When this is over we will all likely know and love someone who either dies or is permanently damaged by the virus, even with extreme measures in place

However it could be even worse if we just relax and go back to normal life now.

I happen to believe government involvement will almost completely recede when the virus does. its easy to get frustrated when the people who disagree seem to have no appreciation for the complexity of the situation and simply go full throttle on the "evil gubmit" meme (it just sounds so dumb in this situation)

...I said it here before: anyone who ignores the government orders and their families should be denied a hospital bed and ventilator and be held criminally and civilly liable for anyone they make sick (directly or indirectly)

---

You're a loon

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All right...Spastic insult replies on the prev page. Got it.

Measured responses are in order with hard deadlines to terminate based of well-defined criteria. THE PEOPLE are the only watch dogs of freedom and have to push for this or suffer the consequences.

VaultingChemist said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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Same hysterical bed wetters, different thread

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Lots of Harry R. Trumans on these threads.

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Had to google this. Yep...

ironmanag said:

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We are a nation of almost 400 million. Perspective is a good thing when looking at numbers in the thousands.

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330, but sure. 20% deviation is material enough to point out.

andyv94 said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Jesus ****ing Christ. Wake up. We will be LUCKY if it's only a few hundred thousand dead. LUCKY.

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Ok. What do you want TexAgs posters to do after they wake up?

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Stop pretending that this is the flu. Stop pretending that a 1% death rate is meaningful when once the hospital system collapses will be closer to 10%.

If social distancing works, maybe we'll keep it at 1%, but we are not on a good trajectory.

---

Omg stop with the drama and over exaggeration/panic!!

Take A chill pill or two, quit looking at the news and stay home. Problem solved for you!

PS-I am truly sorry to hear about your wife, that one sucks absolut balls! : (

---

You guys simply don't like the numbers and lash out at us that have our eyes open as "fear mongering". Talking about the numbers is not exaggerating and it is not over reacting. Simply ignoring the situation and hoping it goes away will not solve anything. It might make you feel less distressed in the short term, but not when the numbers start bearing this week and next.

Dude we can't do anything about this. Maybe talk about this with people who can do something.


Have a great rest of your day! Maybe take a walk.

oldarmy1 said:

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Sure wish people could wrap their heads around the number of cases haven't doubled; the number of tests have quintupled.

Like saying I caught 10 fish yesterday and 20 today so the number of fish in the lake doubled. Ummm no

At least say "known" cases if you want to go down that path.

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OA, I was assured that you do not understand the maths unless you believe cases are doubling daily

What if the CDC's mortality rate for flu used an estimated number of cases that is an order of magnitude larger than those with confirmed infections? And, what if the CDC's mortality rate for COVID-19 only uses actual confirmed cases? And then, what if someone tried to compare the two data points?

And furthermore, what if the CDC were only allowing hospitals to test people for COVID-19 after being approved to test?

It seems you could then start getting the analytics and optics you want, right?

VaultingChemist said:

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Captain Pablo said:

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Same hysterical bed wetters, different thread

---

Lots of Harry R. Trumans on these threads.

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Goldjerrygold

That was beaten to death already. The screening criteria for a lab confirmed test for flu by the CDC is different than that for ncov. For this, all tests are being lab confirmed.

Occam's razor. What's a simpler explanation... every single epidemiologist in this country missed this very basic mistake? Or that it's not correct?

Quote:

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We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

---

Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

Philip J Fry said:

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Lester Freamon said:

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Are you one of the dorks who plugged an exponential equation into Excel and showed us a spreadsheet with 500B infected by March 14?

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I stop all my predictions once we hit 150 million. Growth rate at that point has to slowdown. But at that point, that's only 1.5 million dead.

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How many are supposed to be dead by today in your model?
Start date being 15Jan.
What day do you reach 1.5 million dead?
What day do you reach 4,000 dead?
-do- 100,000 dead?
-do- 400,000 dead?

aginlakeway said:

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Dude we can't do anything about this. Maybe talk a out this with people who can.

Have a great rest of your day! Maybe take a walk.

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Took a walk this morning. Going to hit the home gym after Trump's speech.

None of this is too much for me to handle. I think the paranoids and math illiterates are the ones who need to step away from the keyboard for a while...obviously they're in freak out mode.

I'm looking at you Pablo

Quote:

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Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point it ruins my argument).

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FIFY

Quote:

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If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably.

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Yes, exactly. Swine flu was about 5 times less deadly than regular seasonal flu.

Quote:

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If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

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This is exactly what is being done. We're buying time for hospitals to prepare and to short-term reduce the exponential rate. 3M shipped 500,000 respirators and has ramped capacity to make 35 million N95 masks stateside. Two weeks matters here.

k2aggie07 said:

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That was beaten to death already. The screening criteria for a lab confirmed test for flu by the CDC is different than that for ncov. For this, all tests are being lab confirmed.

Occam's razor. What's a simpler explanation... every single epidemiologist in this country missed this very basic mistake? Or that it's not correct?

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Back to Occam's razor? You know that's just a guiding principle and is often flat out wrong?

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu. Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza." 2 days ago

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Of those hospitalized for flu this season, 5.9% are now dead.Perhaps many dropped dead outside a hospital, but it seems reasonable to use those two numbers together. Where's the panic? The flu is clearly a highly contagious disease if their prediction that more than 10% of Americans have had it this flu season.