The chart Philip is showing is not a projection. It's just tracking the deaths reported in the US by state, by the CDC. Then he best-fits a trendline to it. The dots are facts. The line is a best-fit curve. Ignore the line if you want.

520k for the world as of 2:25PM...think we're ok on getting to 10MM by Monday

k2aggie07 said:

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The chart Philip is showing is not a projection. It's just tracking the deaths reported in the US by state, by the CDC. Then he best-fits a trendline to it. The dots are facts. The line is a best-fit curve. Ignore the line if you want.

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So it just says "projected" in the title for fun?

at this rate we'll all be dead by dinner time

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.

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Celebrating already huh? Gloomr doomer hoping and praying.

Troutslime said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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The chart Philip is showing is not a projection. It's just tracking the deaths reported in the US by state, by the CDC. Then he best-fits a trendline to it. The dots are facts. The line is a best-fit curve. Ignore the line if you want.

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So it just says "projected" in the title for fun?

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The dots are guiding the projections, right? Or that is how I remember it in high school math/science.

The dots are the datapoints from CDC. The dotted line is a best-fit trendline. That trendline can be used as a projection, sure. But the dots are facts.

k2aggie07 said:

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The dots are the datapoints from CDC. The dotted line is a best-fit trendline. That trendline can be used as a projection, sure. But the dots are facts.

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Then why isn't it dated?

k2aggie07 said:

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The dots are the datapoints from CDC. The dotted line is a best-fit trendline. That trendline can be used as a projection, sure. But the dots are facts.

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But are they all the facts?

Bro

Instead of charts to show exponential growth how about tomorrow's headline:

US Now Has More Coronavirus Cases than China and Italy: Worldwide Cases Grow to 500,000

On March 1, the US had 75 cases.

You just wait....and wait...and wait

Social Distanced said:

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You just wait....and wait...and wait

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I mean, I get that it's growing rapidly and that certain areas have a real issue (NYC, NOLA), but for most of us, this is a big nothing burger so far.

for those who think we're all gonna die, why are you on TexAgs?

Muy said:

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for those who think we're all gonna die, why are you on TexAgs?

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BINGO. I'd be out doing something else.

It's like people who think the world will end in 12 years saving for retirement. Why do that?

if we're not able to test people who either have or don't even have symptoms, why is the death rate important?

Per Abbotts Presser Today.

Coronavirus in Texas by numbers:

• Texas is conducting between 2,000 and 5,000 coronavirus testing on a weekly basis
• 1,425 positive coronavirus cases were confirmed as of March 26
• 21,424 tests have been conducted so far
• 18 deaths due to coronavirus complications
• Approximately 90 counties in Texas have identified coronavirus cases.
• 100 patients currently in the hospital due to coronavirus.
• More than 3,000 beds available to coronavirus patients if needed

Basically because this disease seems to be really infectious, so it's likely a big chunk of people are going to get it. In that regard, the timing of severe cases and the % who will die are basically the only things that matter. Most of the papers are assuming the final case count is >>50%.

barnyard1996 said:

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Per Abbotts Presser Today.

Coronavirus in Texas by numbers:

• Texas is conducting between 2,000 and 5,000 coronavirus testing on a weekly basis
• 1,425 positive coronavirus cases were confirmed as of March 26
• 21,424 tests have been conducted so far
• 18 deaths due to coronavirus complications
• Approximately 90 counties in Texas have identified coronavirus cases.
• 100 patients currently in the hospital due to coronavirus.
• More than 3,000 beds available to coronavirus patients if needed

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Those sound like very good numbers, so far ...

Muy said:

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for those who think we're all gonna die, why are you on TexAgs?

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Because I'm WFH and I'm procrastinating.

I don't think we're all gonna die. Statistically the vast majority of those infected will live. And on a positive note, social distancing appears to be working

We'll be allowed out and about before Easter at this pace

FPS_Dough said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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Per Abbotts Presser Today.

Coronavirus in Texas by numbers:

• Texas is conducting between 2,000 and 5,000 coronavirus testing on a weekly basis
• 1,425 positive coronavirus cases were confirmed as of March 26
• 21,424 tests have been conducted so far
• 18 deaths due to coronavirus complications
• Approximately 90 counties in Texas have identified coronavirus cases.
• 100 patients currently in the hospital due to coronavirus.
• More than 3,000 beds available to coronavirus patients if needed

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100 in hospitals but I was told the hospitals are overrun in Texas?

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That number certainly jumps out.

Muy said:

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for those who think we're all gonna die, why are you on TexAgs?

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Nobody has suggested we are all going to die. That's ridiculous. I think ~.8-1% who get it will die, skewed to older people. But I do think 50%-70% of the US population getting infected is entirely possible. And 1% of 50% of the US population is a disasterous number. Furthermore, the damages from 50% of the population catching this virus are also huge. Every day this spreads unchecked is another 40% of cumulative people that will catch it and thus 40% more people will die. So time is of the essence to act. But who needs critical thinking when your argument style is saying ignorant ***** Reducto ad absurdum is a logical fallacy for a reason. Another great argument is the red herring x people die from y, and nobody thinks that's a big deal. I mean only ~3,000 people died on 9/11 so according to the logic in this thread that was a big "nothing burger".

If one thing is certain, we are all going to die.

barnyard1996 said:

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FPS_Dough said:

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barnyard1996 said:

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Per Abbotts Presser Today.

Coronavirus in Texas by numbers:

• Texas is conducting between 2,000 and 5,000 coronavirus testing on a weekly basis
• 1,425 positive coronavirus cases were confirmed as of March 26
• 21,424 tests have been conducted so far
• 18 deaths due to coronavirus complications
• Approximately 90 counties in Texas have identified coronavirus cases.
• 100 patients currently in the hospital due to coronavirus.
• More than 3,000 beds available to coronavirus patients if needed

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100 in hospitals but I was told the hospitals are overrun in Texas?

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That number certainly jumps out.

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Of course I can't provide hard numbers but a physician I'm friends with advised me that the numbers are being fudged for deaths and hospitalization. If an individual is identified to have any preexisting condition, even if the exacerbation of which by coronavirus results in death or hospitalization, those instances are not attributed to COVID-19 by CDC or DSHS. Even if they test positive.

That's why every positive test goes through a phase where it's "under investigation". Identify any comorbidity that they could attribute it to and that is recorded as primary cause with COVID-19 as a complicating factor. End result? Cases that are occurring appear to be less severe. They're not exactly lying but they're not painting an accurate picture either. Food for thought.

So basically doing the same thing that we were all annoyed at the Germans for doing.

swimmerbabe11 said:

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So basically doing the same thing that we were all annoyed at the Germans for doing.

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Its nice to have friends.

Rossticus said:

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swimmerbabe11 said:

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So basically doing the same thing that we were all annoyed at the Germans for doing.

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.

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Or not.

Troutslime said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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The chart Philip is showing is not a projection. It's just tracking the deaths reported in the US by state, by the CDC. Then he best-fits a trendline to it. The dots are facts. The line is a best-fit curve. Ignore the line if you want.

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So it just says "projected" in the title for fun?

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Wait, is this the reason I've been banging my head trying to explain this **** is real? Confusion that dots are hard data and the dashed line is the best exponential curve fit?

k2aggie07 Did a great job explaining the graph. The reason I'm showing the trend line is to help identify when/if the curve is bending.

Flagged. You have a doctor on the front line seeing this stuff with his own eyes. Not the right person to be calling out.

I love me some hearsay.

Fenrir said:

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I love me some hearsay.

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I didn't say it would hurt my feelings if anyone chose not to believe me. I'm not an official source and I'm not at liberty to disclose the name of this individual or the hospitals they're associated with. They're a friend, a physician, and as of recently they're also my physician. Take it however you wish. Doesn't matter to me in the least.