COVID exponential growth in full swing

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Infection_Ag11
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1:57p, 3/22/20
AG
Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Cowbird
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1:58p, 3/22/20
AG
How many positives vs tested?
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crowman2010
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In reply to Infection_Ag11 • 1:59p, 3/22/20
AG
Infection_Ag11 said:
Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.
And 12k of the 14k are in NY...
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Ag with kids
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1:59p, 3/22/20
AG
Have hospitalizations and deaths been following the same curve?
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policywonk98
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1:59p, 3/22/20
AG
New cases or cases that have been identified by testing?

There is a big difference.
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annie88
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2:00p, 3/22/20
AG
Staff. Please Move this to covid forum

[CAN'T MERGE THREADS, ONLY LOCK, DELETE, OR MOVE FORUMS. -STAFF]
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Dad
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2:00p, 3/22/20
AG
I hope the growth has somehow been even faster than we think and a huge number of people have already recovered from it without knowing.

Otherwise, we are going to be in for a world of hurt if we don't find an effective treatment.
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Pelayo
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In reply to Ag with kids • 2:01p, 3/22/20
AG
Ag with kids said:
Have hospitalizations and deaths been following the same curve?
there will be a lag
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Threadbare
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In reply to policywonk98 • 2:01p, 3/22/20
policywonk98 said:
New cases or cases that have been identified by testing?

There is a big difference.
Cleary this number is profoundly impacted by the increased testing availability.

A simply stunning omission from the OP...
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billydean05
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2:01p, 3/22/20
Over under on 50,000 deaths in their US by the end of 2020. I take the under
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Infection_Ag11
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In reply to policywonk98 • 2:01p, 3/22/20
AG
policywonk98 said:
New cases or cases that have been identified by testing?

There is a big difference.


The number of actual US cases is almost certainly over 100k already.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Tom Hagen
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2:02p, 3/22/20
AG
Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.
We have seen this movie before. Government over-hypes a threat as an excuse to grab more of our freedoms. When the “threat” is over, however, they never give us our freedoms back...Ron Paul



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Maroon Dawn
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2:02p, 3/22/20
AG
All I know is that I work in a major hospital and right now we are not overrun at all.

Almost the opposite as the ER is empty and elective surgeries cancelled
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74OA
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2:02p, 3/22/20
AG
Keep the raw numbers in perspective. Doc Reveille over on the virus board has been pounding this point from the beginning: First Paragraph
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Infection_Ag11
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In reply to Ag with kids • 2:03p, 3/22/20
AG
Ag with kids said:
Have hospitalizations and deaths been following the same curve?


There's always a lag
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Nitro Power
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In reply to billydean05 • 2:04p, 3/22/20
AG
Way under.
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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Infection_Ag11
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In reply to Tom Hagen • 2:05p, 3/22/20
AG
Tom Hagen said:
Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases.


That's just about the most incorrect statement ever posted.

The number of cases directly impacts mortality, both from this disease and as a whole, due to healthcare burden.

Everyone who has ANY life threatening health problem right now is at higher risk of death.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Stat Monitor Repairman
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2:05p, 3/22/20
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Nitro Power
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In reply to Infection_Ag11 • 2:06p, 3/22/20
AG
You don't say?
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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P.C. Principal
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In reply to Tom Hagen • 2:06p, 3/22/20
Tom Hagen said:
Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.
No. Stop saying this stuff.

Increased number of cases is going to result in increased deaths. That's what people are warning about. We don't need to wait until hundreds or thousands of people are dying every day to take drastic action.
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AggielandPoultry
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In reply to Maroon Dawn • 2:06p, 3/22/20
AG
Maroon Dawn said:
All I know is that I work in a major hospital and right now we are not overrun at all.

Almost the opposite as the ER is empty and elective surgeries cancelled


Same thing where I work. A lot of Gawkers and frequent flyers for the most part. But from what I'm hearing we are actually testing more people now.
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Nitro Power
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In reply to P.C. Principal • 2:07p, 3/22/20
AG
Sensationalism much?
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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P.C. Principal
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In reply to crowman2010 • 2:08p, 3/22/20
crowman2010 said:
Infection_Ag11 said:
Already 14k new US cases since yesterday and by the end of the day we'll have more or less doubled in 24 hours (24k to 45-48k estimate).

Worldwide we'll surpass 500k by tomorrow morning and hit a million sometime early Wednesday. We're still at least a week away from curbing the exconential growth internationally if our current measures work and it's essentially a mathematical and medical certainty we'll hit 10 million cases world wide by the start of next week.

A lot of people are about to get a very disturbing math lesson.
And 12k of the 14k are in NY...
What's your point?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

According to this, which is updated multiple times a day, there are 31k known cases in the US, and just under 16k in the state of NY. It makes sense that NYC got hit very hard because it's the biggest city in the US and is very dense. If I lived in NYC I'd get the hell out of there yesterday.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Tom Hagen • 2:08p, 3/22/20
AG
Tom Hagen said:
Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.



You can't view this graph? Are you blind or just unwilling to open your eyes?

Quote:

crowman2010 said:

And 12k of the 14k are in NY...



Texas is a whole 5 days away from where New York is right now. At the end of the week, we will be where NY is right now.


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P.C. Principal
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In reply to Nitro Power • 2:09p, 3/22/20
Social Distanced said:
Sensationalism much?
No, using common sense. Taking heed of warnings to avoid an explosion of cases is common sense, not sensationalism.
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Nitro Power
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In reply to P.C. Principal • 2:10p, 3/22/20
AG
Saying hundreds of thousands are going to die in the US is sensationalism.
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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Maroon Dawn
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In reply to AggielandPoultry • 2:11p, 3/22/20
AG
AggielandPoultry said:
Maroon Dawn said:
All I know is that I work in a major hospital and right now we are not overrun at all.

Almost the opposite as the ER is empty and elective surgeries cancelled


Same thing where I work. A lot of Gawkers and frequent flyers for the most part. But from what I'm hearing we are actually testing more people now.


So far we've had just a handful of positive tests but with one exception, they were all sent home and told to come back only if they were having breathing problems. The other was admitted due to preexisting pulmonary issues for observation and so far is our only actual COVID admit
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Nitro Power • 2:12p, 3/22/20
AG
Wake up. We will be LUCKY if it's only a few hundred thousand dead. LUCKY.
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P.C. Principal
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In reply to Nitro Power • 2:12p, 3/22/20
I didn't say that. I said hundreds OR thousands of people dying a day due to exponential growth, which is something we need to do everything in our power to avoid.
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aggie appraiser
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In reply to P.C. Principal • 2:13p, 3/22/20
Quote:
Quote:
It makes sense that NYC got hit very hard because it's the biggest city in the US and is very dense. If I lived in NYC I'd get the hell out of there yesterday.


If only everyone followed your advice the virus would be spread across the nation in no time. Great plan, Dr. Pasteur.
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Nitro Power
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 2:14p, 3/22/20
AG
In the United States? 1,000 dollars to the winners choice of charity? Make it a nice round number, say 250,000. I'll take the under and you can make the check payable to the National MS Society.
When you fall to your knees and ask God for help, don’t forget to fall back on your knees and say ‘thank you’ when He answers.- Steve Torrence
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Maroon Dawn
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In reply to Nitro Power • 2:15p, 3/22/20
AG
Social Distanced said:
Saying hundreds of thousands are going to die in the US is sensationalism.


Not necessarily

We get close to 100k deaths in bad flu seasons

But we have no actual clue how this will compare yet
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Ag-Yoakum95
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In reply to P.C. Principal • 2:15p, 3/22/20
AG
P.C. Principal said:
I didn't say that. I said hundreds OR thousands of people dying a day due to exponential growth, which is something we need to do everything in our power to avoid.


I think he is talking about the OP.
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Gap
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In reply to policywonk98 • 2:16p, 3/22/20
AG
policywonk98 said:
New cases or cases that have been identified by testing?

There is a big difference.
The OP said "new" cases. Best case is being negligent in his use of vocabulary. I would expect a professional in this area to be more precise in his use of language. Exponential growth has always been expected with this virus. However, these are cases confirmed by testing not new cases. Part of the problem with the lack of testing globally and in the US is we don't have good data and don't know exactly where we are and where we are headed.

Anyone want to graph number of tests given by day and see what that curve looks like? It will be scary.

We are getting the information that wasn't available from China with the testing ramping up that will give us a much more accurate mortality rate.
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to P.C. Principal • 2:16p, 3/22/20
AG
P.C. Principal said:
Tom Hagen said:
Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.
No. Stop saying this stuff.

Increased number of cases is going to result in increased deaths. That's what people are warning about. We don't need to wait until hundreds or thousands of people are dying every day to take drastic action.


Hospitalizations matter - local and regional bed capacity.
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