SoupNazi2001 said:

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Lester Freamon said:

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Please stop being dramatic. I never said do nothing. I have been worried about this since the first or second week of January and feel that we are taking mostly appropriate measures and wish that the entire populace had taken it more seriously from the jump instead of relegating it to conspiracy status.

But acting like the global case numbers will increase by 40% in 12 hours or double TWICE by Wednesday is insanity.

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Give these engineers a spreadsheet and they lose all critical thinking skills. I'm starting to believe Tom from Office Space that they don't have people skills.

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Not true. Next.

Let's all just focus on the virus. Turn towards each other against one another. Let's turn politics to spirituality. It is time to think about others right now, not political wins on both sides.

Watch Chris Cuomo. He is fair and spreading the message of helping each other now.

Directly. Help hospitals directly. Don't shut down the workforce.

Quote:

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So stop with I'm a numbers guy bs. Half this board came from the engineering school likely. We are all numbers guys.

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This.

Let's see if you are singing the same tune if this continues another two months. The amount of money already lost, not to be recouped, is already astronomical.

k2aggie07 said:

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Let's reason without numbers.

What firebreaks do we have to stop this? What slows it down?

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Tell him. Don't ask. Tell him.

Has Planned Parenthood donated all of their PPE yet? I would assume they have quite a bit.

liberalag12 said:

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Let's all just focus on the virus. Turn towards each other against one another. Let's turn politics to spirituality. It is time to think about others right now, not political wins on both sides.

Watch Chris Cuomo. He is fair and spreading the message of helping each other now.

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Fredo is not fair.

Social Distanced said:

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Let's see if you are singing the same tune if this continues another two months. The amount of money already lost, not to be recouped, is already astronomical.

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I don't think you understand my point

I have been hearing this for 2 weeks. So is it next week, the week after, the week after, 20 weeks after? When? Saying the same thing over and over also doesn't make it true.

k2aggie07 said:

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That was beaten to death already. The screening criteria for a lab confirmed test for flu by the CDC is different than that for ncov. For this, all tests are being lab confirmed.

Occam's razor. What's a simpler explanation... every single epidemiologist in this country missed this very basic mistake? Or that it's not correct?

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And the Covid test has 70% accuracy.

Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Lester Freamon said:

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Are you one of the dorks who plugged an exponential equation into Excel and showed us a spreadsheet with 500B infected by March 14?

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I stop all my predictions once we hit 150 million. Growth rate at that point has to slowdown. But at that point, that's only 1.5 million dead.

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How many are supposed to be dead by today in your model?
Start date being 15Jan.
What day do you reach 1.5 million dead?
What day do you reach 4,000 dead?
-do- 100,000 dead?
-do- 400,000 dead?

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4k: April 4th
100K: April 21st

I'm not all that comfortable with estimates that far down the pike. At our current pace, we'd hit 150 million infected and the math has probably started falling a part at this point.

But keep in mind, deaths lag infections by as much as 2 or 3 weeks. That's a lifetime when it comes to exponential growth.

k2aggie07 said:

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OP is infectious disease physician.

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Which to me is a like a fancy mechanic. A high paid guesser.

Philip J Fry said:

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andyv94 said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Jesus ****ing Christ. Wake up. We will be LUCKY if it's only a few hundred thousand dead. LUCKY.

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Ok. What do you want TexAgs posters to do after they wake up?

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Stop pretending that this is the flu. Stop pretending that a 1% death rate is meaningful when once the hospital system collapses will be closer to 10%.

If social distancing works, maybe we'll keep it at 1%, but we are not on a good trajectory.

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Omg stop with the drama and over exaggeration/panic!!

Take A chill pill or two, quit looking at the news and stay home. Problem solved for you!

PS-I am truly sorry to hear about your wife, that one sucks absolut balls! : (

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You guys simply don't like the numbers and lash out at us that have our eyes open as "fear mongering". Talking about the numbers is not exaggerating and it is not over reacting. Simply ignoring the situation and hoping it goes away will not solve anything. It might make you feel less distressed in the short term, but not when the numbers start bearing this week and next.

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Except we have been hearing that for the last month! Just wait until next week! It's like the yearly hoping/wishing of our football program......just wait until next year!

If you are old or have inmune issues, STAY HOME!!! 90% of the problem solved!

Sid Farkas said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Dude we can't do anything about this. Maybe talk a out this with people who can.

Have a great rest of your day! Maybe take a walk.

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Took a walk this morning. Going to hit the home gym after Trump's speech.

None of this is too much for me to handle. I think the paranoids and math illiterates are the ones who need to step away from the keyboard for a while...obviously they're in freak out mode.

I'm looking at you Pablo

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Oooo

You're looking at me. Whatever will I do

Not freaking out at all. Just hate to see the country burned to the ground by a bunch of bed wetting nancies scared of their own shadow

Of course Occam's razor isn't right, but - do you really think it's even slightly likely that everyone in the infectious disease community messed up and didn't realize this was actually 10x less deadly than the flu?

By the CDC's estimate you posted this year's seasonal flu has a infection fatality rate of around 0.06% and a hospitalization rate of around 1%. That's based on total infections. They usually estimate that about 50% of people seek medical attention for the flu, so we can assume that the observed rates are around two times that, right? So let's say the observed rate is 2% hospitalization and 0.12% fatal.

Right now in the US according to the CDC (no funny China data!) the overall hospitalization percentage is 20-30%, with 5-11% requiring ICU admission, and case fatality 1.8-3.4%.

This disease is - so far - 10 times as severe when comparing (rough) observed cases to observed cases. That's apples to apples to apples, or as near as we can get.

Quote:

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Of those hospitalized for flu this season, 5.9% are now dead.Perhaps many dropped dead outside a hospital, but it seems reasonable to use those two numbers together. Where's the panic? The flu is clearly a highly contagious disease if their prediction that more than 10% of Americans have had it this flu season.

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The range for death to hospitalization for COVID19, using CDC's same numbers linked above, was 5-17% of hospitalizations end in fatality. Not sure why that's more or less relevant than overall CFR.

Are we really going back to "just the flu"??

Troutslime said:

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Quote:

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We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

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Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

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Good thing plenty of people whp are experts in the field and don't work for the government are also equally concerned. And if you ignore that then you can always fall back on your gut instinct, which I'm sure is well informed.

What should their response be then? The government is using every tool it has besides forcing people to stay home - what is inadequate about that?

Swine Flu was a concern. Schools were shut down... however, hospitalization rates were lower, it was less contagiois, it was less likely to cause death, and humans had some natural immunity to it being exposed to the seasonal flu regularly. Our body was well equipped to have an immune response on day one. Also the incubation period was shorter. CV19 is worse in every category I just described than Swine Flu. Therefore, it requires a different response. The problem is hospitals only have so much physical equipment to deal with things like this. Sure they are asking for aid from the government, but part of the issue is hospital beds and ventilators for which there isn't a massive supply sitting on the open market ready to be bought. PPE is well short of where it needs to be. If a hospital has say 110% of the max capacity they've ever needed of ICU beds and ventilators, and something puts some 3% of the local population or more into a condition where they need equipment on top of the standard baseline demand for that equipment... Then you end up with many times the demand you have supply for. Again the problem is we need to slow the rate of people gettint sick down. There's only one way to do that when we have no real medical tools to slow or stop this thing - keep people away from each other. 80% of infections have been passed by people who had no symptoms, yet. The only way to stop transmission is to drop those infections.

Quote:

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Which to me is a like a fancy mechanic. A high paid guesser.

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awesome

In Harris County we are trusting these decisions to Sylvester Turner who's looking at charges of corruption for taking money for flood relief... SjL (no explanation needed) and a 28 year old first term county judge in Dora the Explorer. That's who's being trusted. No thanks, I know I can make better decisions on my own.

Tom Hagen said:

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Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.

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Truly is all that matters. Presumed positives and even positive tests is not a factor to me, but I would also add number to those hospitalized is.

angus55 said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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OP is infectious disease physician.

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Which to me is a like a fancy mechanic. A high paid guesser.

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Yeah, who needs people who read books and stuff!

Some of you are straight out of Idiocracy.

Quote:

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And the Covid test has 70% accuracy.

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The feral puppies in Chernobyl are radioactive.


Are we naming random facts? Why does that fact matter?

Gordo14 said:

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Troutslime said:

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Quote:

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We do not know if the projections (death) are materializing or not. We also dont know if the measure are working or not. Its March 22.

Edit and I'm not sure what historical data you are referring too. There are plenty of historical pandemics that were far worse or far better than this.

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Exponential is the new buzzword yet nobody has brought up proportional. If the flu kills X, and the Swine flu kills Y, and pneumonia kills Z, why haven't past government responses been proportional? (Please don't go into infection rate because it's not relevant to my point). CV shows up, it becomes a media firestorm and now here we are. WTF? If 1.5% death rate is the norm, what can we expect for .5%?

Besides, if they really believed what they were saying (politicians) there response is woefully inadequate.

If the argument moves to "overwhelming the system", why didn't we address it in 2009 during the Swine flu? Is it because there wasn't a problem? Probably. If the concern is that CV will overwhelm it, why not focus on helping hospitals out? The solutions being implemented don't match the crime so to speak. Also, I'm 55 and have yet to see an accurate government prediction, yet I'm supposed to believe this one. I'm not a skeptic, I'm a product. A product of failed government. Don't blame me.

---

Good thing plenty of people whp are experts in the field and don't work for the government are also equally concerned. And if you ignore that then you can always fall back on your gut instinct, which I'm sure is well informed.

What should their response be then? The government is using every tool it has besides forcing people to stay home - what is inadequate about that?

Swine Flu was a concern. Schools were shut down... however, hospitalization rates were lower, it was less contagiois, it was less likely to cause death, and humans had some natural immunity to it being exposed to the seasonal flu regularly. Our body was well equipped to have an immune response on day one. Also the incubation period was shorter. CV19 is worse in every category I just described than Swine Flu. Therefore, it requires a different response. The problem is hospitals only have so much physical equipment to deal with things like this. Sure they are asking for aid from the government, but part of the issue is hospital beds and ventilators for which there isn't a massive supply sitting on the open market ready to be bought. PPE is well short of where it needs to be. If a hospital has say 110% of the max capacity they've ever needed of ICU beds and ventilators, and something puts some 3% of the local population or more into a condition where they need equipment on top of the standard baseline demand for that equipment... Then you end up with many times the demand you have supply for. Again the problem is we need to slow the rate of people gettint sick down. There's only one way to do that when we have no real medical tools to slow or stop this thing - keep people away from each other. 80% of infections have been passed by people who had no symptoms, yet. The only way to stop transmission is to drop those infections.

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What would you expect "experts" to say? They have no skin in the game.

Are they responsible for the results of their views? No. Hell, even the politicians aren't when you boil it down.

Philip J Fry said:

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Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Lester Freamon said:

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Are you one of the dorks who plugged an exponential equation into Excel and showed us a spreadsheet with 500B infected by March 14?

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I stop all my predictions once we hit 150 million. Growth rate at that point has to slowdown. But at that point, that's only 1.5 million dead.

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How many are supposed to be dead by today in your model?
Start date being 15Jan.
What day do you reach 1.5 million dead?
What day do you reach 4,000 dead?
-do- 100,000 dead?
-do- 400,000 dead?

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4k: April 4th
100K: April 21st

I'm not all that comfortable with estimates that far down the pike. At our current pace, we'd hit 150 million infected and the math has probably started falling a part at this point.

But keep in mind, deaths lag infections by as much as 2 or 3 weeks. That's a lifetime when it comes to exponential growth.

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The last line can't be stressed enough in all of this. People don't just get the virus and drop dead instantaneously... that's a big deal when both he numerator and denominator are growing exponentially... surprised all of you purported numbers experts don't seem to grasp that.

Rate is going to just get worse too as hospitals continue to move towards capacity.

Or more highly paid weatherman.

Just kidding Infection_Ag..

I respect what you do, whether I agree or not, but myself and others on this board would appreciate the same respect. As another poster said I'm sure many of us have an engineering degree and understand simple math.

The answer is none. We're "immunologically naive," there are no firebreaks to the spread until you hit herd immunity or you intervene somehow.

Herd immunity happens at 30-50% infected and recovered, or when you get 30-50% of people recovered + vaccinted.

You get to pick: intervention, or let it get to 30-50% intervention on its own.

HowdyTAMU said:

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k2aggie07 said:

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That was beaten to death already. The screening criteria for a lab confirmed test for flu by the CDC is different than that for ncov. For this, all tests are being lab confirmed.

Occam's razor. What's a simpler explanation... every single epidemiologist in this country missed this very basic mistake? Or that it's not correct?

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Back to Occam's razor? You know that's just a guiding principle and is often flat out wrong?

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu. Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza." 2 days ago

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Of those hospitalized for flu this season, 5.9% are now dead.Perhaps many dropped dead outside a hospital, but it seems reasonable to use those two numbers together. Where's the panic? The flu is clearly a highly contagious disease if their prediction that more than 10% of Americans have had it this flu season.

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Ok, so based on that msth, the flu has infected roughly 10% of the population (38 million) over about 5 or 6 months. Now , estimates from California and NY estimate that COVID will infect anywhere from 40% to 80% of the population over probably a 2 month span. So even if we assume the mortality rate of COVID is the same as flu then that's 100k dead on the low end and 200k on the high end. That's assuming our healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed in which case those death totals grows by multiples.

So to summarize, many more infected over a much shorter time frame equals much worse than flu.

Philip J Fry said:

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Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Lester Freamon said:

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Are you one of the dorks who plugged an exponential equation into Excel and showed us a spreadsheet with 500B infected by March 14?

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I stop all my predictions once we hit 150 million. Growth rate at that point has to slowdown. But at that point, that's only 1.5 million dead.

---

How many are supposed to be dead by today in your model?
Start date being 15Jan.
What day do you reach 1.5 million dead?
What day do you reach 4,000 dead?
-do- 100,000 dead?
-do- 400,000 dead?

---

4k: April 4th
100K: April 21st

I'm not all that comfortable with estimates that far down the pike. At our current pace, we'd hit 150 million infected and the math has probably started falling a part at this point.

But keep in mind, deaths lag infections by as much as 2 or 3 weeks. That's a lifetime when it comes to exponential growth.

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China had 4000 dead - Why would we project more - do these graphs ever show flattening curve ?

Got it. The world should run on your uninformed gut instinct then.

Quote:

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China had 4000 dead - Why would we project more - do these graphs ever show flattening curve ?

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China intervened. We have not yet intervened into this the way they did. Outcome will be different.

This is like two guys jumping off a building. One guy is using a parachute, the other so far is using a pillow case.

BigJim49 AustinNowDallas said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Lester Freamon said:

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Are you one of the dorks who plugged an exponential equation into Excel and showed us a spreadsheet with 500B infected by March 14?

---

I stop all my predictions once we hit 150 million. Growth rate at that point has to slowdown. But at that point, that's only 1.5 million dead.

---

How many are supposed to be dead by today in your model?
Start date being 15Jan.
What day do you reach 1.5 million dead?
What day do you reach 4,000 dead?
-do- 100,000 dead?
-do- 400,000 dead?

---

4k: April 4th
100K: April 21st

I'm not all that comfortable with estimates that far down the pike. At our current pace, we'd hit 150 million infected and the math has probably started falling a part at this point.

But keep in mind, deaths lag infections by as much as 2 or 3 weeks. That's a lifetime when it comes to exponential growth.

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China had 4000 dead - Why would we project more - do these graphs ever show flattening curve ?

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Because nobody believes China's numbers. On both sides of the debate.

riverrataggie said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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andyv94 said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Jesus ****ing Christ. Wake up. We will be LUCKY if it's only a few hundred thousand dead. LUCKY.

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Ok. What do you want TexAgs posters to do after they wake up?

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Stop pretending that this is the flu. Stop pretending that a 1% death rate is meaningful when once the hospital system collapses will be closer to 10%.

If social distancing works, maybe we'll keep it at 1%, but we are not on a good trajectory.

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Omg stop with the drama and over exaggeration/panic!!

Take A chill pill or two, quit looking at the news and stay home. Problem solved for you!

PS-I am truly sorry to hear about your wife, that one sucks absolut balls! : (

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You guys simply don't like the numbers and lash out at us that have our eyes open as "fear mongering". Talking about the numbers is not exaggerating and it is not over reacting. Simply ignoring the situation and hoping it goes away will not solve anything. It might make you feel less distressed in the short term, but not when the numbers start bearing this week and next.

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My take is the numbers guy have been pumping numbers since the onset and acting like people are not taking this seriously.

People are taking this seriously, they are locking down, they have lost 1/3 of their net worth in weeks if not more, they are trying to figure out how to keep their jobs while teach their kids, some have made more sacrifices. So respectfully stop acting like people aren't taking this seriously.

People are doing what they can, so stop pushing the same assumptions on a curve that shows this exponentially growing.

If this continues to exponentially grow with what has been to counter this, then we have two options. Rip up the constitution or go about life.

So stop with I'm a numbers guy bs. Half this board came from the engineering school likely. We are all numbers guys.

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With due respect, there are many people on this board who are tough guys who refuse to see what we are up against. If that isn't you, then kudos. But I will push back whenever someone calls me a "fear monger" just because I'm presenting the dang data. I make no assumptions on the curve besides what the results are bearing out.

But no one is going to be convinced by someone else saying there are no firebreaks. People have to come to terms with that fact. What stops it?

I think before May 1, this virus will be pretty much on the decline.

Here is why:

The Malaria medicine will work.
The American people coming together to fight it will stop the rapid advancement.

They will once they start flattening out. We don't know yet when that will happen.