Tom Hagen said:

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Deaths are the only stat that matters, not the number of cases. I don't see deaths increasing exponentially.

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They currently are in Italy

Lester Freamon said:

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Are you one of the dorks who plugged an exponential equation into Excel and showed us a spreadsheet with 500B infected by March 14?

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I stop all my predictions once we hit 150 million. Growth rate at that point has to slowdown. But at that point, that's only 1.5 million dead.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Lester Freamon said:

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500k cases by tomorrow and a million by Wednesday? What are you smoking buddy?

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It's basic math

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Do you have an SIR model that shows the projected deaths?

I understand exponential growth. But to act like this is going to infinity is asinine.

Rates of increase will start to roll over at some point and we will approach an asymptote on the log scale. Where that is is impossible to say at this point. But you're effectively treating all 320M people in the US like they're one big "pond", instead of literally thousands of separate one, that is completely static in behavior.

93MarineHorn said:

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Quote:

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Stop pretending that this is the flu. Stop pretending that a 1% death rate is meaningful when once the hospital system collapses will be closer to 10%.

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Ok, doomer, you've jumped the shark. Do yourself an enormous favor and stop watching the news.

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What keeps the death rate low are equipped hospitals. Once they are at their max, that rate will grow dramatically as people die in their homes. Sorry the numbers make you uncomfortable.

The rough number for herd immunity needed to end the spread in a population is

R0 - 1 / R0.

This thing has a reported R0 of >2, so that's 50%.
Even if it's just as infectious as influenza, R=1.3 that's 23%.

What firebreaks do we have before this hits a million?

Lester Freamon said:

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I understand exponential growth. But to act like this is going to infinity is asinine.

Rates of increase will start to roll over at some point and we will approach an asymptote on the log scale. Where that is is impossible to say at this point. But you're effectively treating all 320M people in the US like they're one big "pond", instead of literally thousands of separate one, that is completely static in behavior.

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The US is one big 'pond' At least it was until a couple of days ago.

this is a little more positive update from a dr.

MEDICAL UPDATE: Covid 2019 (SARS-Cov-2) - 3/22/2020

"Oh My Goodness" Social Distance Results this Quickly?

Okay, perhaps she shouldn't be smiling this big yet, but everyone has permission to do a very small victory dance at home alone. WE ARE NOT NEARLY DONE WITH THIS.

Despite increased testing, the rate of change (new cases today/new cases yesterday) fell below 1.0 (a flat curve) for the first time and has been trending down for 4 days. The goal is to get this ratio to zero.

USA NOW RANKS 3RD in the WORLD and continues to rise. We ranked 8th just last week.

If I can find the data to plot Rate of Change for Texas I will. It is NOT time to relax. Social distancing might be working, but total cases continue to accumulate and will tax the healthcare system if we do not strongly stay the course.

Current info - Top.
Previous Explanations - Bottom.

USA:
3-17-2020 - 1,748 new cases/24 hours.
3-18-2020 - 2,848 new cases/24 hours
3-19-2020:- 4,530 new cases/24 hours
3-20-2020 - 5,594 new cases/24 hours
3-21-2020 - 4,824 new cases/24 hours

Current USA rate of change:
3/16/2020 = 1.33 (938/737)
3/17/2020 = 1.86 (1748/938).
3/18/2020 = 1.63 (2848/1748)
3/19/2020 = 1.60 (4530/2848)
3/20/2020 = 1.23 (5594/4530)
3/21/2020 = 0.86 (4824/5594) Hope this trend continues!

Initial Goal: Ratio 1.0 (Flatten curve/stop exponential growth).
Ultimate Goal: Ratio 0. (No new cases).

Inflection Point of Logistic Curve: Reached when the number of new cases today is equal to or lower than the number of new cases yesterday (Ratio of 1.0 or less). This simply takes the stress off current healthcare demands so that we can have supplies and beds to treat those ill without stress to the system and give time for clinical trials for treatments.

I much prefer "hurr durr exponents something something you can't do the maths"

Philip J Fry said:

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I've been through this before. I'm not laying bets on human lives and it disgusts me that you think that's acceptable.

Feel free to donate to whatever charity you want. My wife has MS. Horrible disease with the only treatment options that are lifelong to extent the onset. Kind of like the social distancing.

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I'm sorry about your wife. Terrible disease. Is your position on the CV tied in to you protecting her?

It definitely makes me more aware of the situation.

Social Distanced said:

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This is what I have been trying to say. There are too many unknown variables that can change the outcome. To say it's this or that and "simple math" is idiotic.

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What do you guys not understand about this? That is obviously correct, but you can't take a "wait and see" approach when there is a possibility of exponential growth. By the time you take action, there is no action left to take.

The math is basic, but you guys are saying "do nothing because there are other variables to consider". Hopefully those variables slow down the growth rate and even reverse it, but you can't get confirmation before acting.

Philip J Fry said:

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It definitely makes me more aware of the situation.

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I can respect that. My daughter has epilepsy and any type of illness ramps up her seizure activity. We differ in that I don't expect the world to behave differently because of that. She's aware of this and limits herself socially to prevent it.

Nice!

I didn't say do nothing first of all. I do think shutting the economy down is the incorrect move. I believe in faith and human resilience are being drastically underestimated.

That's fine. She's self quarantining through all this as best she can. I'm more worried about what our country is about to go through. We have a tsunami coming and people are still on the beach.

Social Distanced said:

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I didn't say do nothing first of all. I do think shutting the economy down is the incorrect move. I believe in faith and human resilience are being drastically underestimated.

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So what is your solution? What would you do? Hope we survive?

Take special precautions if you are more susceptible, wash your hands and basic overall hygiene. Let restaurants and businesses stay open if they choose. We as a people cannot and should not count on the government to dictate our livelihoods.

Troutslime said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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That's fine. She's self quarantining through all this as best she can. I'm more worried about what our country is about to go through. We have a tsunami coming and people are still on the beach.

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Its called freedom.

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Or utter stupidity, depending on your view on this matter.

Please stop being dramatic. I never said do nothing. I have been worried about this since the first or second week of January and feel that we are taking mostly appropriate measures and wish that the entire populace had taken it more seriously from the jump instead of relegating it to conspiracy status.

But acting like the global case numbers will increase by 40% in 12 hours or double TWICE by Wednesday is insanity.

We are losing freedoms we hat we will never get back due to this. It might not show up for months, weeks, or years, but they are gone. Is that worth it?

That's a straight ticket to 20-30% daily growth.

Social Distanced said:

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We are losing freedoms we hat we will never get back due to this. It might not show up for months, weeks, or years, but they are gone. Is that worth it?

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Name one.

LakeCharlesAg99 said:

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agsalaska said:

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Social Distanced said:

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We are losing freedoms we hat we will never get back due to this. It might not show up for months, weeks, or years, but they are gone. Is that worth it?

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Name one.

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1st Amendment right to assembly.

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Nonsense. This is not a freedom that will be lost. There are all kinds of examples of quarantines, martial law, lockups, etc. thru our entire history. None of which cost us the right to assembly. Saying this as a certainly is ridiculous.

What else you got.

LakeCharlesAg99 said:

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agsalaska said:

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Social Distanced said:

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We are losing freedoms we hat we will never get back due to this. It might not show up for months, weeks, or years, but they are gone. Is that worth it?

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Name one.

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1st Amendment right to assembly.

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Are you contending we're never going to be able to get that back?

Let's reason without numbers.

What firebreaks do we have to stop this? What slows it down?

agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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That's fine. She's self quarantining through all this as best she can. I'm more worried about what our country is about to go through. We have a tsunami coming and people are still on the beach.

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Its called freedom.

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Or utter stupidity, depending on your view on this matter.

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Liberty is not stupid. I can respect your right to live your life as you choose. Try doing that.

Social Distanced said:

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Take special precautions if you are more susceptible, wash your hands and basic overall hygiene. Let restaurants and businesses stay open if they choose. We as a people cannot and should not count on the government to dictate our livelihoods.

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You didn't solve the problem. Hospitals are overrun and you are out of supplies, what do you do?

This is a blueprint for government to control the populace. As I said originally it might not be in a week, month or year, but it will happen over time. It will all stem from a grave overreaction to a pandemic.

Troutslime said:

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agsalaska said:

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Troutslime said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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That's fine. She's self quarantining through all this as best she can. I'm more worried about what our country is about to go through. We have a tsunami coming and people are still on the beach.

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Its called freedom.

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Or utter stupidity, depending on your view on this matter.

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Liberty is not stupid. I can respect your right to live your life as you choose. Try doing that.

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That's quite the reach there my friend. But please keep flying the flag.

Nothing happening now wasn't done in 1918-1919.