Oh, I did a deep dive in the Tenet thread a few weeks back. I was expecting it with either this or It: Chapter 2, but was convinced it would be with It instead...
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I nerded out big time for this, but I needed to take my mind off writing for a while, and was genuinely curious as to when we can reasonably expect a teaser for Tenet. So, for each of Nolan's films that had a teaser roughly a year out (i.e. his last five films), here are the stats...
THE DARK KNIGHT
Release Date: July 18, 2008
First Teaser: July 27, 2007 (w/ The Simpsons Movie / 20th Century Fox)
= 12 months prior to release of the movie
Start of Filming: April 2, 2007
= 4 months prior to release of the teaser
INCEPTION
Release Date: July 16, 2010
First Teaser: August 21, 2009 (w/ Inglorious Basterds / The Weinstein Company)
= 11 months prior to release of the movie
Start of Filming: June 17, 2009
= 2 months prior to release of the teaser
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES
Release Date: July 20, 2012
First Teaser: July 15, 2011 (w/ Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 / Warner Bros.)
= 12 months prior to release of the movie
Start of Filming: May 2, 2011
= 2.5 months prior to release of the teaser
INTERSTELLAR
Release Date: November 7, 2014
First Teaser: December 14, 2013 (w/ various Christmas movies)
= 11 months prior to release of the movie
Start of Filming: August 6, 2013
= 4 months prior to release of the teaser
DUNKIRK
Release Date: July 21, 2017
First Teaser: August 4, 2016 (w/ Suicide Squad / Warner Bros.)
= 11.5 months prior to release of the movie
Start of Filming: May 14, 2016
= 3 months prior to release of the teaser
In other words, Nolan teasers debut an average of 11.5 months before the release of his movies, and an average of 3 months after the start of filming.
TENET releases July 17, 2020 and began filming May 22, 2019.
So, going by the averages, this would put TENET's first teaser debuting at some point in August.
However, seeing as Nolan's teasers don't always debut with movies of their respective studios, and there's really only one August release big enough to attach it to, IF precedent holds, here are my guesses as to when we'll see the first teaser...
- July 26 w/ Once Upon a Time In Hollywood (Sony Pictures)
- August 2 w/ Hobbs & Shaw (Universal Pictures)
- September 6 w/ It: Chapter 2 (Warner Bros.)
If I had to bet, I'd say it debuts with It: Chapter 2, seeing as it's a Warner Bros. movie. That saidm there IS also precedent for Nolan debuting a teaser with a Tarantino movie in late summer, so Once Upon a Time In Hollywood isn't out of the question either. Regardless, unless Nolan suddenly breaks the tradition of his past five films, we should be getting our first teaser before Labor Day weekend, which is pretty exciting.