Mavs have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way (20th hardest). I know things seem bleak with all the injuries at one position, but PJ is expected back after the break, so at least our primary stretch 5 will actually be a good NBA player. Hopefully we can get Powell back sometime soon so we can at least have a big body. Nobody knows what is going on with him, though.
If AD misses 6 weeks from when he got injured (picked an arbitrary number, this isn't based on anything) then he should be back for the last handful of games of the regular season. If Lively misses 2.5 months from when he was said to be out for 2-3 months then he would also be back for the last few games of the regular season.
I think the Mavs are pretty likely in the play-in. I don't think there is a realistic chance at the top 6. Mavs are currently in 8th and 3 games clear of PHX outside the last play-in spot. Also 5 games ahead of the Spurs who are still alive and going for it, I guess.
Some things working in our favor:
The Suns have by far the hardest remaining SOS, and 4 of their "easy" games are 2 against NO, who is getting healthy and is better than their record, and then 2 against SAS, who the Suns have had issues with since last season.
Sacramento (currently 9th, 1.5 games back of the Mavs) has the 2nd hardest remaining SOS, and they got worse at the deadline by trading Fox.
I also think the Rockets are in a free fall and are likely to fall back in to the play-in, while Minnesota will make the top 6. Rockets are 3.5 games ahead of Minnesota and 4.5 ahead of the Mavs.
Clippers and Lakers also have top 5 hardest remaining SOS, so it is possible the Mavs get some more help from either of these teams.
I think the best case scenario for the Mavs is to stay in either 7 or 8 and hope to play Houston in the play-in game. If AD and Lively are back for the play-in it's just a really nice matchup for us. I think LAC wouldn't be a bad one either.
I know the Mavs have matched up well with OKC recently, but I just want to avoid them for as long as possible. I just think it's a pretty nice path to the WCF if your first two matchups are Memphis/Denver. AD had a really nice series last year in the playoffs against Denver.