Sea Speed said:

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So what is up with these road rage shootings? That is several this year and I dont recall them being a thing previously. Did I just not pay attention or is this a new thing in the Tine?

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txags92 said:

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Serotonin said:

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Sea Speed said:

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This is going to reach a tipping point where the normal folks won't take it anymore, right?

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It really depends. Both NYC and Detroit were in terrible condition and headed wrong way in '80s but one chose to crack down on crime and implemented broken window theory policing.

There is still time but it doesn't look very promising right now.

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With the shift in technology and business philosophy allowing and encouraging a much larger number of employees to work from home, the need to congregate near large urban areas is going to go away. I predict we will see a massive shift away from the urban areas over the next couple of decades as the people who have the means to do so move out to the country to get away from surging crime. That is why I predicted that Houston is going to go the way of Detroit. The city is mostly landlocked by other municipalities at this point, and the folks who live there insist on voting for the soft on crime judges and DA. The left is never going to have a chief of police that will take on the DA and get tough on crime, so it will just continue to get worse.

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txags92 said:

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Serotonin said:

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txags92 said:

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Serotonin said:

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Sea Speed said:

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This is going to reach a tipping point where the normal folks won't take it anymore, right?

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It really depends. Both NYC and Detroit were in terrible condition and headed wrong way in '80s but one chose to crack down on crime and implemented broken window theory policing.

There is still time but it doesn't look very promising right now.

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With the shift in technology and business philosophy allowing and encouraging a much larger number of employees to work from home, the need to congregate near large urban areas is going to go away. I predict we will see a massive shift away from the urban areas over the next couple of decades as the people who have the means to do so move out to the country to get away from surging crime. That is why I predicted that Houston is going to go the way of Detroit. The city is mostly landlocked by other municipalities at this point, and the folks who live there insist on voting for the soft on crime judges and DA. The left is never going to have a chief of police that will take on the DA and get tough on crime, so it will just continue to get worse.

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I don't think Houston will be Detroit because we don't have the demographics of Detroit.

I know it's not PC to say but the average black population has extremely high homicide rates compared to hispanics, whites, or asians.

African-Americans are actually less of the US population than Hispanics (13% to 18%) but have way more homicides -- 6,318 to 1,576 in 2018.
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-3.xls

Detroit is 81% AA and Houston is 22%, so it would be almost impossible for Houston to become Detroit.

Don't get me wrong though, we can probably increase our normal homicide rate by 30-50% with terrible policies, which is what is happening now. But I think there will be pushback.

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Detroit's demise is often credited as starting in the 1950s with "rapid suburbanization". In other words, the population left the city for the suburbs. In 1950, Detroit had 1.8M people living there and it was ~84% white and ~16% AA. By 1990, 800,000 people had left the city, and the population was 21.6% white and 75.7% AA. That is what I am referring to regarding Houston going that direction...those with means to do so...aka whites and mobile hispanics will leave for the suburbs if crime is left unchecked and there is no need to be in the city to be employed. Those without means (regardless of race) will be what is left behind. Once the people with means leave the city, the taxes they can collect will no longer cover what is needed to maintain the city, and things will snowball further. Unless we can convince people that voting blue is the pathway to Detroit, we will be headed that direction. And a study of the Detroit demographics and population shifts suggests that it won't take as long as many think to reach a tipping point. With WFH proven out by the Covid experience, lots and lots of companies are going to realize that the expensive leases they are paying for high rise office spaces are an unnecessary expense. Without the draw of tens of thousands of people wanting to live near where they are required to work 5 days a week, many of the hot inside the loop properties are doomed.

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Serotonin said:

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txags92 said:

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Serotonin said:

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txags92 said:

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Serotonin said:

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Sea Speed said:

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This is going to reach a tipping point where the normal folks won't take it anymore, right?

---

It really depends. Both NYC and Detroit were in terrible condition and headed wrong way in '80s but one chose to crack down on crime and implemented broken window theory policing.

There is still time but it doesn't look very promising right now.

---

With the shift in technology and business philosophy allowing and encouraging a much larger number of employees to work from home, the need to congregate near large urban areas is going to go away. I predict we will see a massive shift away from the urban areas over the next couple of decades as the people who have the means to do so move out to the country to get away from surging crime. That is why I predicted that Houston is going to go the way of Detroit. The city is mostly landlocked by other municipalities at this point, and the folks who live there insist on voting for the soft on crime judges and DA. The left is never going to have a chief of police that will take on the DA and get tough on crime, so it will just continue to get worse.

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I don't think Houston will be Detroit because we don't have the demographics of Detroit.

I know it's not PC to say but the average black population has extremely high homicide rates compared to hispanics, whites, or asians.

African-Americans are actually less of the US population than Hispanics (13% to 18%) but have way more homicides -- 6,318 to 1,576 in 2018.
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-3.xls

Detroit is 81% AA and Houston is 22%, so it would be almost impossible for Houston to become Detroit.

Don't get me wrong though, we can probably increase our normal homicide rate by 30-50% with terrible policies, which is what is happening now. But I think there will be pushback.

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Detroit's demise is often credited as starting in the 1950s with "rapid suburbanization". In other words, the population left the city for the suburbs. In 1950, Detroit had 1.8M people living there and it was ~84% white and ~16% AA. By 1990, 800,000 people had left the city, and the population was 21.6% white and 75.7% AA. That is what I am referring to regarding Houston going that direction...those with means to do so...aka whites and mobile hispanics will leave for the suburbs if crime is left unchecked and there is no need to be in the city to be employed. Those without means (regardless of race) will be what is left behind. Once the people with means leave the city, the taxes they can collect will no longer cover what is needed to maintain the city, and things will snowball further. Unless we can convince people that voting blue is the pathway to Detroit, we will be headed that direction. And a study of the Detroit demographics and population shifts suggests that it won't take as long as many think to reach a tipping point. With WFH proven out by the Covid experience, lots and lots of companies are going to realize that the expensive leases they are paying for high rise office spaces are an unnecessary expense. Without the draw of tens of thousands of people wanting to live near where they are required to work 5 days a week, many of the hot inside the loop properties are doomed.

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I agree with your history of Detroit. By 1950 whites started looking at demographic and crime trends and headed for the suburbs. But they also suffered a huge economic decline after WWII, and major racial tension in the 40s.

I think the key demographic difference here though is that AAs were still flooding into Detroit during that time so the population was skyrocketing whereas in Houston it's flat.

In Detroit the black population went up 342% over 30 years from 1940 to 1970.

In Houston the black population went up 12% over 30 years from 1980 to 2010.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_Detroit
http://www.houstontx.gov/planning/Demographics/docs_pdfs/Cy/coh_race_ethn_1980-2010.pdf

Black and white population in Houston has been pretty flat for decades. It's the hispanic tidal wave that will take over the city, whether whites decide to move or not.

At this point it would be demographically impossible for Houston not to be a hispanic majority city in the coming decades, which will make it a very different place than Detroit just given homicide and violent crime rates by demographic.

But I am in agreement that the policies being implemented are insane.

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Serotonin said:

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I think you will definitely see a lot of people rethinking their living situations post-covid with the commute changing.

But I do think there are a ton of people who just like living in a more urban environment even if they could live in a larger house on acreage. Would most people in the Heights or Montrose know what to do with 5 acres? Could they handle the more isolated living situation that entails? Or hearing nature sounds at night?

A lot of people live in those neighborhoods because they want social scene of an urban neighborhood. That just can't be easily replicated elsewhere.

The other thing is that the prices keep rising rapidly in these neighborhoods, so I think there is a huge backlog of buyers and there aren't many sellers. I'm in agreement that that could flip if you started getting a lot of homicides, but right now things are extremely tight.

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Scientific said:

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Urban Decay was nationwide from the 70s-90s, Detroit's hole was a deep one that other cities didn't have to dig themselves out of. Once cities got safer heading into the 00s, we saw the wave of gentrification still taking place now. A lot of things have to happen before we yell Detroit. Look at SF and Austin, yuppies put up with a lot, and will live in the city even if it means walking over human waste.

Unless it gets bad enough to when Robocop chooses Houston as a film location over Detroit again? I think the city will still be attractive to people.

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OEag11 said:

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Yes and she's an aggie I believe. 2nd cousins with listeater by the looks of it.

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Quote:

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An emergency initiative is set to go before Harris County Commissioner's Court on Tuesday to approve funding for three visiting judges and support staff.

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Quote:

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According to Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, there are 100,000 criminal court cases lingering in the judicial pipeline. Enough criminal cases to fill Minute Maid Park nearly two-and-half times.

The increase in personnel comes at a time when the county hasn't built any new criminal district courts in 37 years.

For months, elected leaders have stated the backlog was the result of courts shutting down for Hurricane Harvey and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Violent defendants have continued to be let out on the streets with little or no bond while facing felony charges in other cases. Their day in court takes months, if not, potentially, more than a year.

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