techno-ag said:

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CS78 said:

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Tailgate88 said:

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This has got to be good news for CSISD. They have been losing students to homeschoolers and private schools, they need more students. I suspect they are about to get a big influx.

---

They just did major renovations at both high schools. Wishing we would have just moved forward with building another instead.

What schools have been losing kids? All of the schools my kids have been to have done nothing but increase.

---

There was discussion earlier about CSISD's falling numbers and subsequent decision to start open enrollment. Apparently new houses are too expensive for young families so the schools are expected to lose out over time.

---

CS78 said:

---

Tailgate88 said:

---

This has got to be good news for CSISD. They have been losing students to homeschoolers and private schools, they need more students. I suspect they are about to get a big influx.

---

They just did major renovations at both high schools. Wishing we would have just moved forward with building another instead.

What schools have been losing kids? All of the schools my kids have been to have done nothing but increase.

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

techno-ag said:

---

CS78 said:

---

Tailgate88 said:

---

This has got to be good news for CSISD. They have been losing students to homeschoolers and private schools, they need more students. I suspect they are about to get a big influx.

---

They just did major renovations at both high schools. Wishing we would have just moved forward with building another instead.

What schools have been losing kids? All of the schools my kids have been to have done nothing but increase.

---

There was discussion earlier about CSISD's falling numbers and subsequent decision to start open enrollment. Apparently new houses are too expensive for young families so the schools are expected to lose out over time.

---

This is correct. Open enrollment was implemented largely because of shrinking enrollment due to housing prices.

Respectfully

Yancy '95 Place 5

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doubledog said:

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Bob Yancy said:

---

techno-ag said:

---

CS78 said:

---

Tailgate88 said:

---

This has got to be good news for CSISD. They have been losing students to homeschoolers and private schools, they need more students. I suspect they are about to get a big influx.

---

They just did major renovations at both high schools. Wishing we would have just moved forward with building another instead.

What schools have been losing kids? All of the schools my kids have been to have done nothing but increase.

---

There was discussion earlier about CSISD's falling numbers and subsequent decision to start open enrollment. Apparently new houses are too expensive for young families so the schools are expected to lose out over time.

---

This is correct. Open enrollment was implemented largely because of shrinking enrollment due to housing prices.

Respectfully

Yancy '95 Place 5

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Or lower birth rates and or an aging population.

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Tailgate88 said:

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CS78 said:

---

Tailgate88 said:

---

This has got to be good news for CSISD. They have been losing students to homeschoolers and private schools, they need more students. I suspect they are about to get a big influx.

---

They just did major renovations at both high schools. Wishing we would have just moved forward with building another instead.

What schools have been losing kids? All of the schools my kids have been to have done nothing but increase.

---

Much of the work that happened at the two existing schools would have needed to be done whether a new school was built or not, especially at Consol. And, a new high school could cost....I don't remember the exact numbers but I seem to remember $100M dollars.

And, if they HAD gone ahead and done that before Terafab, they likely would have built it in the wrong place. The thought was that it would be called Wellborn High School, and built on the west side of Wellborn Rd.

If I was CSISD, I believe I'd be looking for a plot of land out Greens Prairie or down 30 at this point.

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

reineraggie09 said:

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

techno-ag said:

---

CS78 said:

---

Tailgate88 said:

---

This has got to be good news for CSISD. They have been losing students to homeschoolers and private schools, they need more students. I suspect they are about to get a big influx.

---

They just did major renovations at both high schools. Wishing we would have just moved forward with building another instead.

What schools have been losing kids? All of the schools my kids have been to have done nothing but increase.

---

There was discussion earlier about CSISD's falling numbers and subsequent decision to start open enrollment. Apparently new houses are too expensive for young families so the schools are expected to lose out over time.

---

This is correct. Open enrollment was implemented largely because of shrinking enrollment due to housing prices.

Respectfully

Yancy '95 Place 5

---

Why does enrollment need to grow forever? At some point, growth has a governor on it. I would assume it needs to keep growing to pay the debt.

And I am part of the problem. We homeschool.

---

https://archive.strongtowns.org/journal/2019/1/9/growth-and-the-fallacy-of-control

Respectfully

Yancy '95

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reineraggie09 said:

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

reineraggie09 said:

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

techno-ag said:

---

CS78 said:

---

Tailgate88 said:

---

This has got to be good news for CSISD. They have been losing students to homeschoolers and private schools, they need more students. I suspect they are about to get a big influx.

---

They just did major renovations at both high schools. Wishing we would have just moved forward with building another instead.

What schools have been losing kids? All of the schools my kids have been to have done nothing but increase.

---

There was discussion earlier about CSISD's falling numbers and subsequent decision to start open enrollment. Apparently new houses are too expensive for young families so the schools are expected to lose out over time.

---

This is correct. Open enrollment was implemented largely because of shrinking enrollment due to housing prices.

Respectfully

Yancy '95 Place 5

---

Why does enrollment need to grow forever? At some point, growth has a governor on it. I would assume it needs to keep growing to pay the debt.

And I am part of the problem. We homeschool.

---

https://archive.strongtowns.org/journal/2019/1/9/growth-and-the-fallacy-of-control

Respectfully

Yancy '95

---

Ahhh StrongTowns. Had some family run ins with jokers running that playbook in other towns. In-laws couldn't sell the family property because the town kept citing StrongTowns and kept stopping the sale because developers couldn't make the town happy with their plans. They kept voting this StrongTowns stuff. Didn't matter what the developers proposed. They kept advocating for high rises for instance in an area of all single family homes arguing it increased tax generation per sq ft and decreased expenditures because people were concentrated. All makes sense with the high rises up and down NG.

But actually my question was about the schools. If schools are panicking because enrollment is going down it must be because of budgets. Those long term budgets are probably built on assumptions of growth, which is how they make the debt math work. Sounds an awful lot like Modern Monetary Theory in the national level. "Rising debt doesn't matter because GDP will keep going up". Things don't always move up and to the right.

---

It’s so crazy that the Terafab is going to be 10x larger than Giga Texas, knowing it literally takes took me a minute to go from one end to the other going at highway speeds… pic.twitter.com/p7CrZ8UsIy

— Teslaconomics (@Teslaconomics) August 6, 2026

johnnyblaze36 said:

---

Here's another good visual:

It’s so crazy that the Terafab is going to be 10x larger than Giga Texas, knowing it literally takes took me a minute to go from one end to the other going at highway speeds… pic.twitter.com/p7CrZ8UsIy

— Teslaconomics (@Teslaconomics) August 6, 2026

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

johnnyblaze36 said:

---

Here's another good visual:

It’s so crazy that the Terafab is going to be 10x larger than Giga Texas, knowing it literally takes took me a minute to go from one end to the other going at highway speeds… pic.twitter.com/p7CrZ8UsIy

— Teslaconomics (@Teslaconomics) August 6, 2026

---

Employment Breakdown by Major Gigafactory

Giga Texas (Austin): ~16,500 employees (down from ~21,000 following recent adjustments).

Giga Nevada: ~11,000 direct workers (up to 30,000 when including regional suppliers).

Giga Berlin (Germany): ~11,000 to 12,000 workers with ongoing plans to expand.

Fremont Factory (California): 20,000+ workers.

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

Should I prevail smart growth will be my focus. Given the news of today I think it's apparent that growth is unavoidable.

Respectfully

Yancy '95

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

johnnyblaze36 said:

---

Here's another good visual:

It’s so crazy that the Terafab is going to be 10x larger than Giga Texas, knowing it literally takes took me a minute to go from one end to the other going at highway speeds… pic.twitter.com/p7CrZ8UsIy

— Teslaconomics (@Teslaconomics) August 6, 2026

---

Employment Breakdown by Major Gigafactory

Giga Texas (Austin): ~16,500 employees (down from ~21,000 following recent adjustments).

Giga Nevada: ~11,000 direct workers (up to 30,000 when including regional suppliers).

Giga Berlin (Germany): ~11,000 to 12,000 workers with ongoing plans to expand.

Fremont Factory (California): 20,000+ workers.

---

For some reason unclear to me, total direct and indirect employment associated with this project is being vastly understated based on predicate projects of much smaller scale.

Respectfully

Yancy '95 Place 5

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

johnnyblaze36 said:

---

Here's another good visual:

It’s so crazy that the Terafab is going to be 10x larger than Giga Texas, knowing it literally takes took me a minute to go from one end to the other going at highway speeds… pic.twitter.com/p7CrZ8UsIy

— Teslaconomics (@Teslaconomics) August 6, 2026

---

Employment Breakdown by Major Gigafactory

Giga Texas (Austin): ~16,500 employees (down from ~21,000 following recent adjustments).

Giga Nevada: ~11,000 direct workers (up to 30,000 when including regional suppliers).

Giga Berlin (Germany): ~11,000 to 12,000 workers with ongoing plans to expand.

Fremont Factory (California): 20,000+ workers.

---

For some reason unclear to me, total direct and indirect employment associated with this project is being vastly understated based on predicate projects of much smaller scale.

Respectfully

Yancy '95 Place 5

---

aggies4life said:

---

Per elon. 3000 jobs is just for phase 1 of 10 btw

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

CS78 said:

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

Should I prevail smart growth will be my focus. Given the news of today I think it's apparent that growth is unavoidable.

Respectfully

Yancy '95

---

Just please keep an eye in the rearview mirror and think about what got us here. We are what we are as a result of decades of consistent slow growth. Look at 50 year real estate charts for College Station. You'll see they go up slowly, sit flat, up slowly, sit flat. We were one of the only locations in the country that weathered the 2008 financial crisis with minimal effect. Partially due to the Univ but also partially due to the fact that our market had not seen the uncontrolled growth prior to 2008, like a lot of other places had seen.

I know a lot of people hate the obstacles that have always been placed on building and opening businesses here. BUT, nobody can argue with the long-term results. It's been a part of why this town has been such a great place to live.

Totally abandon that philosophy and the future is more likely to hold higher highs but lower lows.

---

Here you go:

College Station Age Distribution & Housing Cost Summary
Focus Period: 20182023 (with longer-term growth context)
Prepared: August 6, 2026

================================================================================
OVERALL CITY GROWTH CONTEXT
================================================================================

College Station has been a fast-growing city over the long term:

1990 population: 52,456
2026 population (City estimate, May 2026): 132,852
Total growth 19902026: +153%
Average annual growth rate (CAGR): approximately 2.61%

This is substantially stronger than many peer Texas cities (e.g., Waco averaged
only ~1.0% annually over the same long period).

Even in the more recent 20182023 window examined below, overall population
still grew approximately 8%.

================================================================================
KEY FINDING FROM 2024 EXISTING CONDITIONS REPORT
================================================================================

Figure 9 Percent Population Change by Age Category (2018 to 2023)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (via City of College Station 2024 Existing Conditions Report)

Notable changes in the critical age groups:

30 to 34 years: 20.5%
25 to 29 years: 1.6%
Under 5 years: 0.3% (essentially flat)

While overall city population grew approximately 8% over the same period,
the post-college / early family-formation ages (especially 3034) declined
sharply, and the number of newborns/toddlers stalled.

Other strong growth groups in the same window:
85+ years: +77.2%
50 to 54 years: +48.7%
40 to 44 years: +31.4%

================================================================================
HOUSING COSTS OVER THE SAME PERIOD (20182023)
================================================================================

Inflation baseline (U.S. CPI-U):
Cumulative inflation 2018 2023 21.3%

Home prices:
2018 median prices generally in the $260k$280k range
2023 median sale prices generally in the $320k$370k range
(City report notes prices "exceeded $300,000" by 2023 and describes
a "sharp increase" from earlier years)

Result: Home prices rose at least in line with inflation and, by most
measures, faster producing a real (inflation-adjusted) increase in
housing costs.

Rents:
Also rose over the period. High renter cost-burden remains a persistent
feature of the College Station market (large share of renters paying
>30% of income on housing).

================================================================================
CONCLUSION / COROLLARY
================================================================================

There is a clear temporal correlation between:

1. A sharp decline in the 3034 age cohort (20.5%) and softness in the
2529 cohort,
2. Stagnation in the under-5 population, and
3. Rising real housing costs over the same 20182023 window.

This pattern is consistent with the theory that constrained housing
affordability is associated with reduced retention/attraction of
post-college young adults in their late 20s to mid-30s, which in turn
is associated with weaker growth in the number of young children.

The data support a corollary relationship. Causation is plausible but
not proven by these figures alone.

================================================================================
PRIMARY SOURCES
================================================================================

City of College Station 2024 Existing Conditions Report
(Figure 8: 2023 Population Pyramid; Figure 9: % Population Change 20182023)
Texas Real Estate Center / City housing market data
U.S. Census Bureau ACS and CPI data

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

These are the unintended consequences of seeking to control growth, rather than count it as a blessing and the prosperity that comes with it.

Respectfully

Yancy '95 Place 5

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

CS78 said:

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

Should I prevail smart growth will be my focus. Given the news of today I think it's apparent that growth is unavoidable.

Respectfully

Yancy '95

---

Just please keep an eye in the rearview mirror and think about what got us here. We are what we are as a result of decades of consistent slow growth. Look at 50 year real estate charts for College Station. You'll see they go up slowly, sit flat, up slowly, sit flat. We were one of the only locations in the country that weathered the 2008 financial crisis with minimal effect. Partially due to the Univ but also partially due to the fact that our market had not seen the uncontrolled growth prior to 2008, like a lot of other places had seen.

I know a lot of people hate the obstacles that have always been placed on building and opening businesses here. BUT, nobody can argue with the long-term results. It's been a part of why this town has been such a great place to live.

Totally abandon that philosophy and the future is more likely to hold higher highs but lower lows.

---

Here you go:

College Station Age Distribution & Housing Cost Summary
Focus Period: 20182023 (with longer-term growth context)
Prepared: August 6, 2026

================================================================================
OVERALL CITY GROWTH CONTEXT
================================================================================

College Station has been a fast-growing city over the long term:

1990 population: 52,456
2026 population (City estimate, May 2026): 132,852
Total growth 19902026: +153%
Average annual growth rate (CAGR): approximately 2.61%

This is substantially stronger than many peer Texas cities (e.g., Waco averaged
only ~1.0% annually over the same long period).

Even in the more recent 20182023 window examined below, overall population
still grew approximately 8%.

================================================================================
KEY FINDING FROM 2024 EXISTING CONDITIONS REPORT
================================================================================

Figure 9 Percent Population Change by Age Category (2018 to 2023)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (via City of College Station 2024 Existing Conditions Report)

Notable changes in the critical age groups:

30 to 34 years: 20.5%
25 to 29 years: 1.6%
Under 5 years: 0.3% (essentially flat)

While overall city population grew approximately 8% over the same period,
the post-college / early family-formation ages (especially 3034) declined
sharply, and the number of newborns/toddlers stalled.

Other strong growth groups in the same window:
85+ years: +77.2%
50 to 54 years: +48.7%
40 to 44 years: +31.4%

================================================================================
HOUSING COSTS OVER THE SAME PERIOD (20182023)
================================================================================

Inflation baseline (U.S. CPI-U):
Cumulative inflation 2018 2023 21.3%

Home prices:
2018 median prices generally in the $260k$280k range
2023 median sale prices generally in the $320k$370k range
(City report notes prices "exceeded $300,000" by 2023 and describes
a "sharp increase" from earlier years)

Result: Home prices rose at least in line with inflation and, by most
measures, faster producing a real (inflation-adjusted) increase in
housing costs.

Rents:
Also rose over the period. High renter cost-burden remains a persistent
feature of the College Station market (large share of renters paying
>30% of income on housing).

================================================================================
CONCLUSION / COROLLARY
================================================================================

There is a clear temporal correlation between:

1. A sharp decline in the 3034 age cohort (20.5%) and softness in the
2529 cohort,
2. Stagnation in the under-5 population, and
3. Rising real housing costs over the same 20182023 window.

This pattern is consistent with the theory that constrained housing
affordability is associated with reduced retention/attraction of
post-college young adults in their late 20s to mid-30s, which in turn
is associated with weaker growth in the number of young children.

The data support a corollary relationship. Causation is plausible but
not proven by these figures alone.

================================================================================
PRIMARY SOURCES
================================================================================

City of College Station 2024 Existing Conditions Report
(Figure 8: 2023 Population Pyramid; Figure 9: % Population Change 20182023)
Texas Real Estate Center / City housing market data
U.S. Census Bureau ACS and CPI data

---

So I conclude:

We've never grown slowly. It's always been fast.

What's changed is housing policy. We thought we were going to "control growth" and "make growth pay for itself" with impact fees, parks dedication fees, higher permit fees and an overall fee stack to meet these policy goals.

In so doing, we ran off the young, inverted our population pyramid and became a retirement community- broadly speaking.

Because there are fewer unfrozen tax value residents to grow with us, our revenues shrink relative to per capita population as we age into frozen taxes.

Consequently, younger generations bear an ever increasing share of our collective tab, so to speak.

These are the unintended consequences of seeking to control growth, rather than count it as a blessing and the prosperity that comes with it.

Respectfully

Yancy '95 Place 5

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

Bob Yancy said:

---

johnnyblaze36 said:

---

Here's another good visual:

It’s so crazy that the Terafab is going to be 10x larger than Giga Texas, knowing it literally takes took me a minute to go from one end to the other going at highway speeds… pic.twitter.com/p7CrZ8UsIy

— Teslaconomics (@Teslaconomics) August 6, 2026

---

Employment Breakdown by Major Gigafactory

Giga Texas (Austin): ~16,500 employees (down from ~21,000 following recent adjustments).

Giga Nevada: ~11,000 direct workers (up to 30,000 when including regional suppliers).

Giga Berlin (Germany): ~11,000 to 12,000 workers with ongoing plans to expand.

Fremont Factory (California): 20,000+ workers.

---

For some reason unclear to me, total direct and indirect employment associated with this project is being vastly understated based on predicate projects of much smaller scale.

Respectfully

Yancy '95 Place 5

---

Valen said:

---

I'd go one step further and say we should put out a welcome mat for the market to succeed. It really burns me up that I know local businesses that were told "it's a privilege to own a business in Colle Station, not a right." We've scared off the market and I've heard it from many. Time to put out a welcome mat and be stewards rather than blockers.

---