I've heard it said that it's far easier to beg forgiveness than to ask permission.

Honestly don't think we're going to do either in this situation...

Ginormus Ag said:

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What does the X account that tracks pizza takeout places near the Pentagon and gay bars say?

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Higher traffic today but there was the other day too.

I kinda respect their game. Well played.

GeoConfirmed Iran.

Be aware that many so-called “OSINT” accounts — which often just retweet others’ work without crediting the original source (such as Telegram channels) or post unverified information to attract attention, with little genuine INT in what they do — are once… pic.twitter.com/EQR6kdkRkg

— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) January 15, 2026

Embassies in Qatar and Kuwait issued a few "stay alert" warnings to US citizens and embassy personnel. Essentially telling them to stay away from US bases.

The U.S. Embassy in Kuwait has instructed Mission personnel to comply with a temporary halt to movement into facilities at Camp Arifjan, Camp Buehring, Ali Al Salem Air Base, and Camp Patriot.https://t.co/XXq9S7CxuN pic.twitter.com/C1agQfTL0V

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) January 15, 2026

Malibu said:

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That assumes that the Crown Prince comes to power, can consolidate and reform both civil society and existing bureaucracy, and can actually hold power legitimately. If he is weak or ineffective, he might be the Shah of Tehran and the rest of the country is held by various despots (think Mexico and cartels as an approximate model here), or might be deposed and power consolidated by a man of will and action that is worse than the current government. There is no guarantee that because the people want change and reform they actually get the stable version that and the oil flows.

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I'd be interested to know what your definition of "worse government" would be. Worse than killing thousands of your own people, sponsoring world terrorism, and backing other terrible world governments?

Worst scenario, Iran breaks out into civil war that ends up dragging on for a decade or so and results in mass migration.
Best scenario, the crown prince returns to usher Iran back into democracy.

The US has called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting on the situation in Iran, according to diplomats - Al Jazeera https://t.co/rxRjXkYZ01

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) January 15, 2026

Guess nothing will be happening tonight.

BBRex said:

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Malibu said:

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That assumes that the Crown Prince comes to power, can consolidate and reform both civil society and existing bureaucracy, and can actually hold power legitimately. If he is weak or ineffective, he might be the Shah of Tehran and the rest of the country is held by various despots (think Mexico and cartels as an approximate model here), or might be deposed and power consolidated by a man of will and action that is worse than the current government. There is no guarantee that because the people want change and reform they actually get the stable version that and the oil flows.

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I'd be interested to know what your definition of "worse government" would be. Worse than killing thousands of your own people, sponsoring world terrorism, and backing other terrible world governments?

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ISIS Shias with nukes. That would be worse. Again, the idea that the protestors win, the Shah comes back, and there is peace, freedom, and democracy in Iran is a wonderful narrative. That narrative will make contact with the real world, which is that regime changes create power vacuums, and legitimacy is usually that whomever controls the guns is the legitimate ruler, not who people want.

Trump on Reza Pahlavi:

He seems very nice, but I don’t know how he’d play within his own country.

I don’t know whether or not his country would accept his leadership, and certainly if they would, that would be fine with me.

Source: Reuters https://t.co/80lOVAH4Of

— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 15, 2026

Grumble.

nortex97 said:

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Trump on Reza Pahlavi:

He seems very nice, but I don’t know how he’d play within his own country.

I don’t know whether or not his country would accept his leadership, and certainly if they would, that would be fine with me.

Source: Reuters https://t.co/80lOVAH4Of

— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 15, 2026

Grumble.

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Kind of like Maduros situation in his eyes.

This is rock ****ing stupid Trump.

I hate this.

None of this makes sense for Americans, or Iranians. It's stupid, full stop.

nortex97 said:

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This is rock ****ing stupid Trump.

I hate this.

None of this makes sense for Americans, or Iranians. It's stupid, full stop.

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Agreed

It sounds more and more like shooting from the hip.

I think Trump is trying to avoid a chaotic regime change that results in civil war.

Quote:

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ISIS Shias

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Does not compute

You might think and discuss it internally but saying it out loud serves literally zero positive purpose. Love the man but "open mouth, insert foot" seems to be a rule he strives to live by.

The Fall Guy said:

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nortex97 said:

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Trump on Reza Pahlavi:

He seems very nice, but I don’t know how he’d play within his own country.

I don’t know whether or not his country would accept his leadership, and certainly if they would, that would be fine with me.

Source: Reuters https://t.co/80lOVAH4Of

— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 15, 2026

Grumble.

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Kind of like Maduros situation in his eyes.

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I see it as Art of the Deal. Don't show your hand when negotiating

This is my thought. Why…publicly do this, and throw away this:

Reza Pahlavi:

In security and foreign policy, Iran’s nuclear military program will end. Support for terrorist groups will cease immediately.

A free Iran will work with regional and global partners to confront terrorism, organized crime, drug trafficking, and extremist… pic.twitter.com/3KZUHMvrNq

— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 15, 2026

It's just not smart 'negotiating.'

Of course, not to derail, but he's at least finally having this meeting:

President Donald J. Trump will have a closed-door lunch meeting tomorrow at 12:30 PM with Venezuela opposition leader María Corina Machado, inside the Private Dining Room at the White House. pic.twitter.com/RfFXzhPNMw

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 15, 2026

I'm just utterly dismayed over this 'negotiating' posture vis a vis Iran and Reza's 'return.'

Nothing says democracy more than bringing in a monarch.

ISIS has persecuted Shia Muslims since its rise in 2014, targeting them as part of its extremist Salafi jihadist ideology. Try again

What I meant was the Shia version of ISIS, not actual ISIS.

txwxman said:

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Colonel Kurtz said:

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Exactly what we need. More Americans dying in some desert ****hole for no good reason.

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Iran is no more than 25% desert. And many Iranian cities can't compete with cities high on the ****hole scale…talking about you Houston.

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Everything you just said is wrong…

Protests Erupt Across Iran

Protests Explode Across Iran

Alternative thread title siggestion.

Sure.

NEW - The Pentagon was ready to have troops return to Al Udeid base after Trump’s remarks on Wednesday afternoon, according to a U.S. military official, who called the president’s comments "an off-ramp."

Long-range bombers in the US had been put on alert to conduct secondary… pic.twitter.com/h1wD3UaX8Y

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) January 15, 2026

Queso1 said:

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Nothing says democracy more than bringing in a monarch.

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Who says we have to bring in democracy? They seem to want a monarchy at the moment. Let them have it.

Malibu said:

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What I meant was the Shia version of ISIS, not actual ISIS.

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And what is that? Exactly?

Thai makes me think nothing is happening

President Donald J. Trump has told his national security team that he would want any U.S. military action in Iran to deliver a “swift and decisive blow” to the regime and not spark a sustained war that dragged on for weeks or months, according to a U.S. official who spoke to NBC… pic.twitter.com/kMku3M52WH

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 15, 2026

President Donald J. Trump has told his national security team that he would want any U.S. military action in Iran to deliver a "swift and decisive blow" to the regime and not spark a sustained war that dragged on for weeks or months, according to a U.S. official who spoke to NBC News.

"If he does something, he wants it to be definitive," one of the people familiar with the discussions said, however so far, Trump's advisers have not been able to guarantee to him that the regime would quickly collapse after a strike and there is concern that the U.S. may not have all the assets in the region it would need to guard against what administration officials expect would be an extremely aggressive response from Iran.

Breaking news: Days before protests erupted in Iran in December, Israeli officials notified the Iranian leadership via Russia that they would not launch strikes against Iran if Israel were not attacked first. Iran responded that it would also refrain from an attack.…

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) January 14, 2026

Hmm. Not sure why we'd get involved if Israel already said they are not going to get involved. This isn't our fight.

Now those that rose up will be slaughtered like sheep. Dont tell them help is coming and act all big and mighty and then say F it.

I can't wait for this response.

Hoyt Ag said:

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I can't wait for this response.

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Iran is currently ruled by an aging religious zealot whose military, loyal to him, has no qualms murdering civilians. So when I say the Shia version of ISIS, I am referring to the organization that emerges in a power vacuum that 1) already has weapons, 2) a cheap view of human life, 3) is already religiously extreme, and 4) already organized. It's not exactly a far fetched only in Hollywood scenario that toppling a totalitarian religious government would not lead to democracy taking root, but instead an even more hardcore totalitarian religious zealots stepping in if the successor pro-democracy government is weak or incapable of consolidating power.