Summary: US does not have assets in place for a strike. No carrier groups nearby. Iran short range ballistic missiles still number in the thousands and were barely used in the Israel war over the summer. There's no sign we are moving assets into the Middle East at all.

Reminder that there is not a single U.S. Carrier Strike Group currently deployed to the Middle East, and the closest carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), is in the South China Sea and would take several days if not a week to reach Iran. It is extremely unlikely and… https://t.co/A0jDnXr9G0

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 11, 2026

@sentdefender is a severe TDS-sufferer, which is about all I have to say on that.

Much can be done without a local carrier strike group, no matter the armchair analysts/experts and navy guys say.

The US military can still operate and have plenty of impact without a carrier in the region folks.

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) January 11, 2026

Yeah I read this as counter intel…."I am not gonna hit you as I hit you".

There should be plenty of options: sea & air launched cruise missiles. Short, medium, long range drones. Plenty of air to ground fighter bombers with aerial refueling capabilities.

The 72 isn't leaving the South China sea unless another carrier takes her place. The 73 is in her annual SRA in yokosuka, and will relieve the 72 early summer sometime. If we send a carrier to the Arabian Gulf then it would have to be another one, and it would take weeks.

Have the Israelis do it. They have assets in the area. They owe us a favor

Quote:

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Over the decades, Israel has become the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign aid, with total assistance (including both military and economic aid) reaching approximately $150 billion in non-inflation-adjusted terms by February 2022. Military aid has been the primary component, supporting Israel's defense capabilities and strategic cooperation with the U.S.

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That was from 2022, so add another 15 billion to the pot. Since 1959 250 billion dollars in aid.

Question really isn't about ability to launch things like tomahawks or whatever. It's having the ability to respond to the response. There's no indication the US has moved additional air defense systems or put additional ships in the area for the radar needs, etc. The srbm threat to our bases in the region is quite real.

His analysis that the Iranian govt would view any attack at this particular time as a true threat to their power is likely true. They would throw everything they had at all of our bases in the region. The relatively limited attack on one base following the strike on the nuclear facility was only done to save face and done after the United States evacuated the base. Any counter by Iran at this point would not be limited and would not wait for coordination.

UK will do this as well one day

M

BREAKING: The Iranian Regime has begun attacking the Starlink network with military jammers to suppress footage of the revolution. pic.twitter.com/AriwWeF5Sj

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 11, 2026

I feel like "they" (either the citizens or with foreign help) need force Khamenei from the country this week or this revolt is going to fail and it's a damn shame. If they kill him or force him to flee then it's probably game on, but I don't think massive marches are going to work. They have to cut the head off of the snake and rest of the roaches might just run and hide.

Agreed. They're passed the point of no return so either they take out the regime or they all die unfortunately

FriscoKid said:

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I feel like "they" (either the citizens or with foreign help) need force Khamenei from the country this week or this revolt is going to fail and it's a damn shame. If they kill him or force him to flee then it's probably game on, but I don't think massive marches are going to work. They have to cut the head off of the snake and rest of the roaches might just run and hide.

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This is where I think a short covert mission might help.

Don't do an overt attack or anything or it will solidify the support that some have for the mullahs...

If I'm trump I don't take this meeting unless it's with Pahlavi

NOW - Trump says Iranian leaders called him yesterday and "they want to negotiate... a meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what's happening, before the meeting." pic.twitter.com/CF2DC6Pwbg

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 12, 2026

Take the leash off of the Israelis and let them do their thing. Give them all the Tomahawk strikes they can request. Not tomorrow, not next week, not after we move a couple of carrier groups closer - DO IT NOW!

What do people think is going to happen in Iran if the government collapses? There are 11 plus different ethnic groups. Same kind of stuff in Iraq, where a strongman is needed. The Ayatollah might be deposed, but the radical Islam that supports him isn't going anywhere. Iran could get bad real quick.

should be an interesting week

All I do is Nguyen said:

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If I'm trump I don't take this meeting unless it's with Pahlavi

NOW - Trump says Iranian leaders called him yesterday and "they want to negotiate... a meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what's happening, before the meeting." pic.twitter.com/CF2DC6Pwbg

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 12, 2026

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The Russia stalling plan engaged.

Queso1 said:

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What do people think is going to happen in Iran if the government collapses? There are 11 plus different ethnic groups. Same kind of stuff in Iraq, where a strongman is needed. The Ayatollah might be deposed, but the radical Islam that supports him isn't going anywhere. Iran could get bad real quick.

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The birthright prince will assume the throne again with the full backing of the western world and the support of the Iranian people. Israel and the US can destroy whatever we want to in the next 24 hours, but if the people's revolt works then it has a much better chance of success. If the camel high priest is forced from the country by the Iranian citizens then there is real hope for a world changing event.

Yes but I'm concerned it could easily turn into a civil war. An insurgency like in Iraq. We don't want to get involved in that.

Queso1 said:

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Yes but I'm concerned it could easily turn into a civil war. An insurgency like in Iraq. We don't want to get involved in that.

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Iran was a functioning country with a single government before the Islamic revolution. Iraq is a manufactured country that was created by people with no understanding of the tribal differences they were cobbling together after WWI. There will certainly be groups that have issues with any new government, but the country as a whole has been united before the revolution and there is no reason to think it won't be able to stay that way.

Queso1 said:

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What do people think is going to happen in Iran if the government collapses? There are 11 plus different ethnic groups. Same kind of stuff in Iraq, where a strongman is needed. The Ayatollah might be deposed, but the radical Islam that supports him isn't going anywhere. Iran could get bad real quick.

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well.. a constitutional monarchy.

Abraham accords --> Cyrus accords --> peace in the middle east

Anybody who thinks there would be a peaceful transition of power away from the Mullahs to a Shah-based representative republic or anything similar is either a) willfully naive or b) obtuse.

Doesn't mean the regime should be allowed to stay in power. But to think it would be clean and easy is incredibly shortsighted.

It seems like Iran is already locked in a low level civil war.

Queso1 said:

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What do people think is going to happen in Iran if the government collapses? There are 11 plus different ethnic groups. Same kind of stuff in Iraq, where a strongman is needed. The Ayatollah might be deposed, but the radical Islam that supports him isn't going anywhere. Iran could get bad real quick.

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The support for the islamists was never really a majority, and it has waned in recent decades. They had to ally themselves with the communists and socialists in order to seize power before stabbing them in the back and locking down. Since then they have mismanaged the country, and people are fed up. There are plenty of different groups, but I don't think anything Islamic centered is going to be very popular or successful.

Right? Even if the people could over through the civil government and assume control of the army by a coup, the Ayatollah's army is a significant power. It could get weird.

Queso1 said:

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Right? Even if the people could over through the civil government and assume control of the army by a coup, the Ayatollah's army is a significant power. It could get weird.

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Already is weird.

The death toll in the ensuing civil upheaval will be significant. And there's no guarantee to resulting government would be any more friendly to our interests than current (see Syria for an example).

Again, doesn't mean it isn't a worthy cause. But it's been a hot minute since any American has had to legitimately fight for their freedom. And don't tell me the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were for our freedom. The majority of Americans were thoroughly insulated from the realities of those horrendous adventures.

Just saying a lot of the key board warriors are back in full force for something they have absolutely no skin in the game for. Have spent a considerable amount of time in the eastern Med over the past ~ 2 years. Have seen rockets fly through the sky. Have had to shelter in place for attacks. The average person typing away about what the Iranians should or shouldn't do is... a bit off-putting.

Edit: And I haven't seen the half of it compared to our amazing soldiers and sailors. I'm nobody special. But what I have seen is hard for most to comprehend or appreciate.

I think our government has a bad habit of going in when we're not wanted, and then staying on the sidelines when we are. This would actually be a chance to do the right thing for once.

Good luck fighting off the people in the country side as well, they are hardliners.

Agreed, some valid points. Still, I think their desire for the "Shah" to return represents a return to constitutional institutions, and a government that reflects the will of the people. In German here but a good piece if using a translator.

Quote:

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"Javid Shah" as a counter-model to the ideology of violence
Against this backdrop, it becomes understandable why the slogan "Javid Shah" is increasingly heard in the Iranian protests. In its currently dominant interpretation, it stands neither for a return to absolute monarchy nor for the rejection of the republic as a democratic principle. Rather, it marks the antithesis of the ideological projects of the 20th century that linked politics with the rejection of the market and the legitimation of violence.

In the contemporary understanding of many demonstrators, "Shah" symbolizes a neutral, non-ideological, and non-partisan nation-statea state whose legitimacy derives from its constitution, the will of the electorate, and institutional continuity, not from revolution or ideology. "Javid" thus refers to the permanence of institutions, not the inviolability of individuals.

In other words, the slogan encapsulates a modern demand for

• a non-violent transition,
• the abandonment of ideological revolutions,
• and the establishment of a predictable, constitutional and stable order.

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Will just see where it goes this week I guess. Not a good source generally but could be correct here:

MORE: More Iranian security officers have died during the current protests than in any other protest wave in Iran. IRGC-affiliated media reported on January 11 that at least 114 regime security personnel from the Law Enforcement Command (LEC), Basij, and IRGC have been killed… https://t.co/xRMdaxk37C pic.twitter.com/htZyvxZP3w

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 12, 2026

The mullahs just don't have any levers to pull to 'fix' this, and have requested a meeting with DJT:

The Iranian rial, it’s teetering on the edge of collapse.

At roughly 1 IRR to $0.000001, it ranks among the globe’s most fragile currencies, battered by sanctions, soaring inflation, economic mismanagement, and widespread unrest. pic.twitter.com/CMQATTfBIp

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) January 12, 2026

https://vicofutures.substack.com/p/7086a23e-cbca-4e9d-8b2f-24ac33debd5f?postPreview=paid&updated=2026-01-11T21%3A38%3A11.056Z&audience=everyone&free_preview=false&freemail=true


Interesting read…basically they are predicting Regime survival and IGRC Coup as most likely.

The ONLY way to depose a brutal military dictatorship is with weapons and violence.

there is no way simply a mass of unarmed women and children can bring down the Ayatollah

it will take the Israeli Air Force and the US Air Force

Scenes from inside Iran of the Islamic regime forces attacking protesters

A massacre is taking place with every second the world waits to intervene. pic.twitter.com/wbJWKbOWJX

— Emily Schrader - אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر (@emilykschrader) January 12, 2026

Quote:

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Wild-card: The US and/or Israel intervene militarily.

Aardwolf notes that it is difficult to estimate the impact of such strikes on the mood of the protesters. But, at this point, Aardwolf's experts believe it may well undermine the protest movement.

The Vico model has it at 20.0% that in 2026 the US strikes Iran. (Note that one of our models had this possibility as high as 43%.)

Meanwhile, the Vico model has it at a 80% chance that Israel will strike Iran in the next month. For its part, there is a 38% chance that Iran will strike Israel in the next month.

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Interesting.

Tailgate88 said:

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Quote:

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Wild-card: The US and/or Israel intervene militarily.

Aardwolf notes that it is difficult to estimate the impact of such strikes on the mood of the protesters. But, at this point, Aardwolf's experts believe it may well undermine the protest movement.

The Vico model has it at 20.0% that in 2026 the US strikes Iran. (Note that one of our models had this possibility as high as 43%.)

Meanwhile, the Vico model has it at a 80% chance that Israel will strike Iran in the next month. For its part, there is a 38% chance that Iran will strike Israel in the next month.

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Interesting.

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Vico is agentic AI prediction startup with deep ties into the IC.

Will be curious to see how this plays out.

What makes this more crazy is

Iran backed militas in Iraq operates under the Iraqi government umbrella and funded by the government

The US pays a lot in aids for the same Iraqi government

US indirectly funding the killing of Iranians

— 🇱🇧 🔴⚪️🔴 (@_LEBAN0N) January 11, 2026

Sigh, so US-funded Iraqi gov't funds Shia militia using US equipment which is sent then to kill Iranians in support of the mullahs. That's not…the US intervention I was hoping we'd see.

One of Al Sadr's punks, @abu_azrael78 on X:

About par for the course for our evil 'foreign aid' efficacy, though. We are literally paying for this, and the swamp wants it to continue.

🚨 RINO ESTABLISHMENT: 26 Republican Senators voted AGAINST codifying @DOGE foreign aid cuts (S.Amdt. 1266 to H.R. 1968, March 14, 2025).

20+ GOP Senators still REFUSE to cosponsor the SAVE Act (S.128) to require proof of citizenship & stop non-citizen voting.

These 13 are on… pic.twitter.com/HFZ7QM1Bf1

— Publius (@OcrazioCornPop) January 12, 2026

I have this question wrt to armed resources required to finish the Iranian regime . Why can't the Israeli's do
It without a US Carrier group being required?

To me it seems very obvious the current regime cannot be allowed to remain in power in Iran. Now's the time.

well that is not accurate.

In June 2025, Iran fired over 500 ballistic missiles at Israel as part of a 12-day direct conflict.

Total Projectiles: Iran launched a combined total of roughly 1,000 projectiles, including both ballistic missiles and drones.

halfastros81 said:

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I have this question wrt to armed resources required to finish the Iranian regime . Why can't the Israeli's do
It without a US Carrier group being required?

To me it seems very obvious the current regime cannot be allowed to remain in power in Iran. Now's the time.

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The USA was literally just bombing Syria a few days ago.

there are USAF warplanes at Incirlik AFB in Turkey

there are USAF warplanes at Al Udeid AFB

there are USAF warplanes at Diego Garcia

we don't need an aircraft carrier.

they could even fly USAF aircraft from ALL OVER EUROPE and have them land in Israel or be refueled over Cyprus along with the RAF.