Bitcoin on the path to irrelevance?

112,133 Views | 1822 Replies | Last: 3 days ago by Yukon Cornelius
TexasRebel
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AG
Buzzy said:

Quote:

Why would I make a deal with you in bitcoin
because the price of the volatility is baked in to the price they charge

I've talked to one criminal about this scenario, they're perfectly happy with their current situation. They were an early adopter and their net worth is somewhere around $35 million right now. They cashed some out when bitcoin was over $20k a while back and set aside a few million.


Would this be abetting?
Buzzy
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TexasRebel said:

Buzzy said:

Quote:

Why would I make a deal with you in bitcoin
because the price of the volatility is baked in to the price they charge

I've talked to one criminal about this scenario, they're perfectly happy with their current situation. They were an early adopter and their net worth is somewhere around $35 million right now. They cashed some out when bitcoin was over $20k a while back and set aside a few million.


Would this be abetting?
abetting by who?
Wild West Pimp Style
TexasRebel
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AG
you.

do you hang out with a bunch of known criminals?
Adverse Event
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aTmAg said:

Adverse Event said:

aTmAg said:

exp said:

One day liberty loving conservatives will wake up. The debates on this forum are silly at this point. The reality is most on here are quiet statists who don't have courage to break free from their chains. That's ok.
One day, you will realize that bitcoin won't break anybody free from any chains. That you blew your money on a false promise that you fell for.


None of us conservatives think the dollar is wonderful. We just realize that BTC is not the next, 3rd, or even 100th best alterative. When the dollar fails, people will go to something other than bitcoin.

Hm, when other countries have had their monetary system collapse they seem to build parallel economies with bitcoin.


So countries that monetarily don't know what they are doing seem to chose bitcoin.

Is that supposed to be an endorsement?


I find this comment humorous today, knowing that SVB invested in treasury bonds, was a top ranked bank and went bankrupt in 48 hours, starting a bank run forcing CFO's to figure out how to disburse $250k across as many banks as possible.

How long until we have white dudes burning banks down because they can't get their money out for their "puppy yoga" app?
What bitcoin’s detractors don’t understand is monetary economics, computer science, software engineering, network protocols, and electrical systems.

It ain't much, but it's honest Proof of Work.
eric76
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AG
As Bitcoin tumbles, at what point do the miners decide that the costs of mining becomes greater than the rewards of mining?

When that happens, how can Bitcoin not lose the entirity of its remaining "value"?
Not Coach Jimbo
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eric76 said:

As Bitcoin tumbles, at what point do the miners decide that the costs of mining becomes greater than the rewards of mining?

When that happens, how can Bitcoin not lose the entirity of its remaining "value"?


It's been more expensive to mine than It's worth before during this part of its cycle...

Youd probably be better off if you spent time learning about it instead of assuming you know the answer and writing "gotchas"
eric76
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Not Coach Jimbo said:

eric76 said:

As Bitcoin tumbles, at what point do the miners decide that the costs of mining becomes greater than the rewards of mining?

When that happens, how can Bitcoin not lose the entirity of its remaining "value"?


It's been more expensive to mine than It's worth before during this part of its cycle...

Youd probably be better off if you spent time learning about it instead of assuming you know the answer and writing "gotchas"
Why not answer the question?
Adverse Event
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eric76 said:

Not Coach Jimbo said:

eric76 said:

As Bitcoin tumbles, at what point do the miners decide that the costs of mining becomes greater than the rewards of mining?

When that happens, how can Bitcoin not lose the entirity of its remaining "value"?


It's been more expensive to mine than It's worth before during this part of its cycle...

Youd probably be better off if you spent time learning about it instead of assuming you know the answer and writing "gotchas"
Why not answer the question?

The answer is bitcoin's difficulty adjustment.

Now you tell us what bitcoin's difficulty adjustment means.
What bitcoin’s detractors don’t understand is monetary economics, computer science, software engineering, network protocols, and electrical systems.

It ain't much, but it's honest Proof of Work.
eric76
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Adverse Event said:

eric76 said:

Not Coach Jimbo said:

eric76 said:

As Bitcoin tumbles, at what point do the miners decide that the costs of mining becomes greater than the rewards of mining?

When that happens, how can Bitcoin not lose the entirity of its remaining "value"?


It's been more expensive to mine than It's worth before during this part of its cycle...

Youd probably be better off if you spent time learning about it instead of assuming you know the answer and writing "gotchas"
Why not answer the question?

The answer is bitcoin's difficulty adjustment.

Now you tell us what bitcoin's difficulty adjustment means.
The difficulty of mining is adjusted to maintain a more or less constant rate of creating blocks of bitcoin.

But that's not an answer. It affects the answer by reducing the costs of mining when necessary, but it doesn't address the fundamentals.
Viper16jr
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Adverse Event said:

eric76 said:

Not Coach Jimbo said:

eric76 said:

As Bitcoin tumbles, at what point do the miners decide that the costs of mining becomes greater than the rewards of mining?

When that happens, how can Bitcoin not lose the entirity of its remaining "value"?


It's been more expensive to mine than It's worth before during this part of its cycle...

Youd probably be better off if you spent time learning about it instead of assuming you know the answer and writing "gotchas"
Why not answer the question?

The answer is bitcoin's difficulty adjustment.

Now you tell us what bitcoin's difficulty adjustment means.
BTC maxis learning how to cope?
“We're Americans, we'd rather die on our feet, than live on our knees."
Adverse Event
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eric76 said:

Adverse Event said:

eric76 said:

Not Coach Jimbo said:

eric76 said:

As Bitcoin tumbles, at what point do the miners decide that the costs of mining becomes greater than the rewards of mining?

When that happens, how can Bitcoin not lose the entirity of its remaining "value"?


It's been more expensive to mine than It's worth before during this part of its cycle...

Youd probably be better off if you spent time learning about it instead of assuming you know the answer and writing "gotchas"
Why not answer the question?

The answer is bitcoin's difficulty adjustment.

Now you tell us what bitcoin's difficulty adjustment means.
The difficulty of mining is adjusted to maintain a more or less constant rate of creating blocks of bitcoin.

But that's not an answer. It affects the answer by reducing the costs of mining when necessary, but it doesn't address the fundamentals.


Okay. Let's work the exercise together.

Cost to mine makes x% of miners not immediately profitable.
Miners shut down their non-profitable cpus.
Bitcoin blocks take on average more than 10 minutes to mine.
~2weeks later (based on block height) the algorithm adjusted to make it easier (and less costly) to mine.
Miners turn unprofitable miners on now that it's feasible.

But, the unpriced aspect of MINING versus BUYING bitcoin is that this mined bitcoin is KYC-free bitcoin.

KYC-free bitcoin, imo, is far more valuable than recognized. And I predict miners will run for longer "unprofitably" to attain these bitcoin.

How does bitcoin's difficulty adjustment not answer your questions? The algorithm adjusts making mining easier or harder over and over forever.
What bitcoin’s detractors don’t understand is monetary economics, computer science, software engineering, network protocols, and electrical systems.

It ain't much, but it's honest Proof of Work.
bmks270
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AG
Fundamentally it makes mining cheaper by reducing the energy expense required to mine one Bitcoin.

But proof of work has some consequences because it means the miners with the lowest energy cost will be more profitable. It could result in centralization to the cheapest/most efficient miner which may be in a region with lowest energy prices, or may be an entity that can survive the longest and use the most energy.

Things of this nature tend to coalesce where one entity owns the majority of the market. Just like corporations in mature markets, one usually wins most of the market share and everyone else gets scraps.

Immature and young markets have many players (decentralized), but mature markets have only a handful, with one usually owning over half of the market (centralized).

Adverse Event
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bmks270 said:

Fundamentally it makes mining cheaper by reducing the energy expense required to mine one Bitcoin.

But proof of work has some consequences because it means the miners with the lowest energy cost will be more profitable. It could result in centralization to the cheapest/most efficient miner which may be in a region with lowest energy prices, or may be an entity that can survive the longest and use the most energy.

it incentivizes EVERYONE to produce clean/cheap/efficient energy, decentralizing energy production and securing grids. There are literal towns in Africa and national parks that now use hydropower to mine bitcoin and the excess is used for electricity in the town. Id rather the world compete on producing the best energy than destroying civilizations who dont kowtow to the IMF or BRI. Therr are tradeoffs on locations, like Kazakhstan, where they had the least expensive electricity after china banned mining but then had massive governmental changes.

Things of this nature tend to coalesce where one entity owns the majority of the market. Just like corporations in mature markets, one usually wins most of the market share and everyone else gets scraps.
I'll disagree that bitcoin fits anything related to "things of this nature"

Immature and young markets have many players (decentralized), but mature markets have only a handful, with one usually owning over half of the market (centralized).
not sure what you're claiming, are you saying that all the bitcoin, all the miners, are going to be centralized? That makes zero sense.

What bitcoin’s detractors don’t understand is monetary economics, computer science, software engineering, network protocols, and electrical systems.

It ain't much, but it's honest Proof of Work.
bmks270
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It's a total waste of energy.

Energy is an expense to every enterprise. There is always incentive for more efficiency and lower costs universally.

Having to do work just for its own sake is a waste.

Adverse Event
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Support your opinion, or don't.
What bitcoin’s detractors don’t understand is monetary economics, computer science, software engineering, network protocols, and electrical systems.

It ain't much, but it's honest Proof of Work.
Whirligigs
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Crypto isn't a waste of energy or worthless - entire ecosystems are being developed daily and not to mention the infrastructure that currently exists. World governments don't know what to do. I still find it hilarious the idiots who still claim it has no value.

I can partake in a governance 'Eurodollar' ecosystem on my phone today - it's completely decentralized and just software running without bias.

Stop worrying about crypto but starting worrying about the fiat cascading failures that are happening over this weekend.
Adverse Event
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bmks270 said:

It's a total waste of energy.

Energy is an expense to every enterprise. There is always incentive for more efficiency and lower costs universally.

Having to do work just for its own sake is a waste.




Quote:


Bitcoin's "proof-of-work" function has the potential to be a strategically important national security technology for the US in the digital age. However, the American public lacks the necessary understanding of the complexity of proof-of-work, modern power projection tactics, the function of militaries, and warfighting. This lack of understanding could jeopardize US national strategic security as the future of US national strategic security hinges upon cybersecurity. Bitcoin has demonstrated that "proof-of-work" functions as a new type of cyber security system. Nations are beginning to recognize the potentially substantial strategic benefits of Bitcoin, and the US could lose its strategically vital power projection technology lead to its competitors if it does not consider stockpiling strategic Bitcoin reserves. If the US policymakers continue to categorize Bitcoin as "cryptocurrency" and allow institutions with conflicts of interest to claim to be experts in proof-of-work technology, they could compromise US national strategic security. The primary function of militaries is to protect and defend access to international thoroughfares, including cyberspace. Until Bitcoin, nations have not had an effective way to physically secure their ability to freely exchange bits of information across cyberspace without resorting to lethal power. Bitcoin can provide nations with the technology to impose severe physical costs on belligerent actors trying to access or interfere with valuable bits of information. The adoption of Bitcoin could represent a new type of cold war, a cyber space race. The US needs to recognize the potential benefits of Bitcoin and encourage its adoption to maintain its global power dominance.
ChatGPT's summary of SoftWar by Jason "Spook" Lowery
What bitcoin’s detractors don’t understand is monetary economics, computer science, software engineering, network protocols, and electrical systems.

It ain't much, but it's honest Proof of Work.
Adverse Event
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Irrelevant

What bitcoin’s detractors don’t understand is monetary economics, computer science, software engineering, network protocols, and electrical systems.

It ain't much, but it's honest Proof of Work.
jt2hunt
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AG
The mining of bitcoin is constrained by the energy requirements and speed of the processors? In simple terms. The value will continue to rise until the mining issue is solved. Except, the algorithm gets more complex with each bitcoin mined?


Is this a fairly accurate dummies 101 explanation?


Bag
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AG
jt2hunt said:

The mining of bitcoin is constrained by the energy requirements and speed of the processors? In simple terms. The value will continue to rise until the mining issue is solved. Except, the algorithm gets more complex with each bitcoin mined?


Is this a fairly accurate dummies 101 explanation?



yes

A buddy of mine has started a company mining BTC at the well pad using excess (to be faired) natural gas. He is not the first to do this, looks like a solid investment tbh
YouBet
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AG
Adverse Event said:

Irrelevant


Wait, are they saying that money put in crypto caused a USD deposits issue at banks?

Gaslighting in 2023 is almost a sport at this point.
jt2hunt
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Other than losing your passcode, this system is pretty damn smart.
jt2hunt
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Any idea of his capital costs and revenue generation?
Bag
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jt2hunt said:

Any idea of his capital costs and revenue generation?
he is looking for investors, I think current investment units (total of 10 per pad) are around $15k up front and that unit will produce around 5-7 coins over a 5 year period.
tysker
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AG
Bag said:

jt2hunt said:

Any idea of his capital costs and revenue generation?
he is looking for investors, I think current investment units (total of 10 per pad) are around $15k up front and that unit will produce around 5-7 coins over a 5 year period.
at $15k rigged will generate about $120k of today's USD in 5-7 years? why by the underlying when the derivative will return so much more with a similar risk profile?
Bag
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tysker said:

Bag said:

jt2hunt said:

Any idea of his capital costs and revenue generation?
he is looking for investors, I think current investment units (total of 10 per pad) are around $15k up front and that unit will produce around 5-7 coins over a 5 year period.
at $15k rigged will generate about $120k of today's USD in 5-7 years? why by the underlying when the derivative will return so much more with a similar risk profile?
im not sure I follow
PlaneCrashGuy
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tysker said:

Bag said:

jt2hunt said:

Any idea of his capital costs and revenue generation?
he is looking for investors, I think current investment units (total of 10 per pad) are around $15k up front and that unit will produce around 5-7 coins over a 5 year period.
at $15k rigged will generate about $120k of today's USD in 5-7 years? why by the underlying when the derivative will return so much more with a similar risk profile?


To some people, coins earned from mining payments are worth more than their street value, because they are what is called "Non-KYC Bitcoin"

Not sure that is what is happening here, but those folks exist.
Adverse Event
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

tysker said:

Bag said:

jt2hunt said:

Any idea of his capital costs and revenue generation?
he is looking for investors, I think current investment units (total of 10 per pad) are around $15k up front and that unit will produce around 5-7 coins over a 5 year period.
at $15k rigged will generate about $120k of today's USD in 5-7 years? why by the underlying when the derivative will return so much more with a similar risk profile?


To some people, coins earned from mining payments are worth more than their street value, because they are what is called "Non-KYC Bitcoin"

Not sure that is what is happening here, but those folks exist.
and there are more everyday!
What bitcoin’s detractors don’t understand is monetary economics, computer science, software engineering, network protocols, and electrical systems.

It ain't much, but it's honest Proof of Work.
Not Coach Jimbo
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eric76 said:

Not Coach Jimbo said:

eric76 said:

As Bitcoin tumbles, at what point do the miners decide that the costs of mining becomes greater than the rewards of mining?

When that happens, how can Bitcoin not lose the entirity of its remaining "value"?


It's been more expensive to mine than It's worth before during this part of its cycle...

Youd probably be better off if you spent time learning about it instead of assuming you know the answer and writing "gotchas"
Why not answer the question?


Because you're not asking with an open mind or any interest in learning. I don't care enough to prove you wrong, especially when you'll never admit it anyways.

Something something casting pearls before swine.
TheEternalPessimist
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MemphisAg1 said:

Passing along a link to this article that makes the case Bitcoin will remain on a downward trend.

Quote:

"Bitcoin's conceptual design and technological shortcomings make it questionable as a means of payment: real Bitcoin transactions are cumbersome, slow and expensive," they wrote. "Bitcoin has never been used to any significant extent for legal real-world transactions."

"Bitcoin is also not suitable as an investment. It does not generate cash flow (like real estate) or dividends (like equities), cannot be used productively (like commodities) or provide social benefits (like gold). The market valuation of Bitcoin is therefore based purely on speculation," they added.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/european-central-bank-says-bitcoin-is-on-the-road-to-irrelevance.html

I don't own any because I haven't resolved how to value it, and it's too volatile for my taste. I follow a hard rule of not investing in things I don't understand. That has served me well after some small, but impactful, lessons learned with investing earlier in life.

But I'm fascinated by the ongoing story of technology development, wealth creation and destruction.
Im hardheaded. Holding.
--

"The Kingdom is for HE that can TAKE IT!" - Alexander
AggieAL1
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jt2hunt said:

The mining of bitcoin is constrained by the energy requirements and speed of the processors? In simple terms. The value will continue to rise until the mining issue is solved. Except, the algorithm gets more complex with each bitcoin mined?


Is this a fairly accurate dummies 101 explanation?



Well, not quite. The same amount of Bitcoin will be mined no matter how much or (virtually) how little energy is used. Expanded energy consumption is only required when an individual mining operation wants a bigger share of the Bitcoin available.

Thus, a startup miner would have to match, say, 25 percent of all power being consumed currently by the world's miners (plus the equipment investment) to gain a one-fifth share of the roughly 340,000 Bitcoin that will be produced in the next year. Since that would cut the other miners' shares to 80 percent, they could be expected to boost energy and hardware investment to try to maintain proximate share.

That's called a free market, or hyenas on a carcass - take your pick.

Then in the year after, no matter what they do, everybody's share will be cut in half. Strange business plan.
Adverse Event
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AggieAL1 said:

jt2hunt said:

The mining of bitcoin is constrained by the energy requirements and speed of the processors? In simple terms. The value will continue to rise until the mining issue is solved. Except, the algorithm gets more complex with each bitcoin mined?


Is this a fairly accurate dummies 101 explanation?



Well, not quite. The same amount of Bitcoin will be mined no matter how much or (virtually) how little energy is used. Expanded energy consumption is only required when an individual mining operation wants a bigger share of the Bitcoin available.

Thus, a startup miner would have to match, say, 25 percent of all power being consumed currently by the world's miners (plus the equipment investment) to gain a one-fifth share of the roughly 340,000 Bitcoin that will be produced in the next year. Since that would cut the other miners' shares to 80 percent, they could be expected to boost energy and hardware investment to try to maintain proximate share.

That's called a free market, or hyenas on a carcass - take your pick.

Then in the year after, no matter what they do, everybody's share will be cut in half. Strange business plan.

It's not a business plan, it's an incentive structure to maintaina decentralized global computer.
What bitcoin’s detractors don’t understand is monetary economics, computer science, software engineering, network protocols, and electrical systems.

It ain't much, but it's honest Proof of Work.
Not Coach Jimbo
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Adverse Event said:

AggieAL1 said:

jt2hunt said:

The mining of bitcoin is constrained by the energy requirements and speed of the processors? In simple terms. The value will continue to rise until the mining issue is solved. Except, the algorithm gets more complex with each bitcoin mined?


Is this a fairly accurate dummies 101 explanation?



Well, not quite. The same amount of Bitcoin will be mined no matter how much or (virtually) how little energy is used. Expanded energy consumption is only required when an individual mining operation wants a bigger share of the Bitcoin available.

Thus, a startup miner would have to match, say, 25 percent of all power being consumed currently by the world's miners (plus the equipment investment) to gain a one-fifth share of the roughly 340,000 Bitcoin that will be produced in the next year. Since that would cut the other miners' shares to 80 percent, they could be expected to boost energy and hardware investment to try to maintain proximate share.

That's called a free market, or hyenas on a carcass - take your pick.

Then in the year after, no matter what they do, everybody's share will be cut in half. Strange business plan.

It's not a business plan, it's an incentive structure to maintaina decentralized global computer.


Well said

In regards to the people "dunking" on bitcoin during the down cycle. Do you measure all your investments on such a small timescale?

When in doubt, zoom out.

"The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient."- Warren Buffett
tysker
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AG
Bag said:

tysker said:

Bag said:

jt2hunt said:

Any idea of his capital costs and revenue generation?
he is looking for investors, I think current investment units (total of 10 per pad) are around $15k up front and that unit will produce around 5-7 coins over a 5 year period.
at $15k rigged will generate about $120k of today's USD in 5-7 years? why by the underlying when the derivative will return so much more with a similar risk profile?
im not sure I follow
Its a mining play, not unlike buying gold miners as a way to express exposure to gold.
Spending $15k on a rig (the derivative) that creates >$100k of today's crypto value (the underlying) over the next 5-7 years seems like a no brainer especially given that the risk profile is basically the same, imo. if anything, the rig has intrinsic value and production value the cyrpto asset does not, so it may be your friend has a better play
Bag
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AG
tysker said:

Bag said:

tysker said:

Bag said:

jt2hunt said:

Any idea of his capital costs and revenue generation?
he is looking for investors, I think current investment units (total of 10 per pad) are around $15k up front and that unit will produce around 5-7 coins over a 5 year period.
at $15k rigged will generate about $120k of today's USD in 5-7 years? why by the underlying when the derivative will return so much more with a similar risk profile?
im not sure I follow
Its a mining play, not unlike buying gold miners as a way to express exposure to gold.
Spending $15k on a rig (the derivative) that creates >$100k of today's crypto value (the underlying) over the next 5-7 years seems like a no brainer especially given that the risk profile is basically the same, imo. if anything, the rig has intrinsic value and production value the cyrpto asset does not, so it may be your friend has a better play
ok, cool, thanks for the explanation, thats what I was thinking in my caveman brain, spend $15k and turn it into $120k in 5 years (not to mention with an upside that might be much bigger than that) and with very little relative risk seems like a slam dunk. It has to be only a matter of time before the operators start doing this by default
 
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