Bitcoin on the path to irrelevance?

132,302 Views | 1848 Replies | Last: 10 mo ago by ETFan
General Jack D. Ripper
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In reply to Decay • 9:18p, 12/6/24
Decay said:
TexasRebel said:
If you're not keeping paper records of your assets I don't know what to tell you.
That describes what, 1% or less of people?

Also if you have 200 shares in Microsoft and bring your ledger up to the trading window they still won't honor it




Are you being serious? The atms? Wire transfers. Communications with lawyers and other institutions. Come on.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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10:04p, 12/6/24
Any bank is entirely dependent on an electronic ledger (gasp!) to function in 2024. Just like Bitcoin. To think you are going to go in and withdraw a substantial amount of money because you printed out your proof of ownership if the electricity goes out is just hopelessly naive. They physically don't have the cash on hand. It's all digital. And the bankers are already dead and the vault is cleared out in that scenario.
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RED AG 98
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10:08p, 12/6/24
This is a pretty wild game of Fallout Boy tbh.
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FobTies
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11:48p, 12/6/24
Did you guys happen to catch what the world central banking guy said about the decentralized money solution?

He said it's too volatile to be a store of value.

We should discuss how the new treasury and congress will consider, or not consider, that in the upcoming decision to buy $20B/yr of BTC into a strategic reserve. That seems to be where the current sentiment is trending.

Who cares about anyone missing old opportunities or not taking current opportunities. All that matters is what could potentially change sentiment in future around YOUR current position.

That's the spot to watch. Let's watch....
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Heineken-Ashi
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12:28a, 12/7/24
Many of you need to read Layered Money.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to FobTies • 11:22a, 12/7/24
FobTies said:
Did you guys happen to catch what the world central banking guy said about the decentralized money solution?

He said it's too volatile to be a store of value.

We should discuss how the new treasury and congress will consider, or not consider, that in the upcoming decision to buy $20B/yr of BTC into a strategic reserve. That seems to be where the current sentiment is trending.

Who cares about anyone missing old opportunities or not taking current opportunities. All that matters is what could potentially change sentiment in future around YOUR current position.

That's the spot to watch. Let's watch....


The opinion of the world central banking guy on crypto is about as unbiased imo as the opinion of the Sackler family on whether weed is a good alternative to Vicodin for mild pain relief.
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FobTies
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 12:32p, 12/7/24
Yep, no question Powell is biased.

The only question is whether or not his narrative gains momentum in Congress when voting on a $20B/yr bitcoin reserve bill.

Powell spent 3 years at treasury and will work closely with Bessent. It seems those 2 have opposing views on the proposal. I wouldn't totally write off the Fed when it comes to influencing a decision.

Pompliano is demanding that the promise made must be kept. Pretty sure most other big BTC promoters are banking on the bill to pass. May be the most impactiful legislation in next 4 years, either way it goes. The United States gov sponsoring BTC by buying 5% of the total supply is a HUGE deal.
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to FobTies • 12:47p, 12/7/24
The Fed should support stable coins and thus btc. Stable coins are back by US securities. Which in turn borrow Fed notes to pay back.

Paul Ryan has made this argument much more eloquently.
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LuoJi
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2:40p, 12/7/24
There is no way in hell a 100B type bill is making it through Congress to acquire BTC. I work in a crypto adjacent industry, so certainly not biased.
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tysker
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3:10p, 12/7/24
The UST borrowing money to buy BTC is the stuff of dystopian novels.
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RED AG 98
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3:57p, 12/7/24
Now do the Fed printing and endless monetary supply?
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to tysker • 4:09p, 12/7/24
Better than borrowing money to fund Hamas
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Decay
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 4:17p, 12/7/24
Yukon Cornelius said:
Better than borrowing money to fund Hamas

Fund Hamas AND pay for Iron Dome
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FobTies
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 5:04p, 12/7/24
The Fed should be abolished. But they exist, along with their "consumer protection" and "banking stability" functions. We will find out how involved or uninvolved they will be on sponsoring a gov bitcoin buying program.
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tysker
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In reply to RED AG 98 • 6:10p, 12/7/24
RED AG 98 said:
Now do the Fed printing and endless monetary supply?

An endless money supply to buy BTC!
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Dirty_Mike&the_boys
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2:25p, 12/9/24
Remember the guy in Florida back in 2010, who paid 10,000 Bitcoin for just two large Papa John's pizzas! That transaction, now known as "BitcoinPizzaDay", made history. Back then bitcoin was worth like 40 cents. Well imagine today if he held onto that Bitcoin instead, it'd be worth almost a billion dollars today!
“ How you fellas doin? We about to have us a little screw party in this red Prius over here if you wanna join us.”
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TexasRebel
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In reply to Dirty_Mike&the_boys • 4:32p, 12/9/24
Or he'd've starved.
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12:43p, 12/14/24
Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to [removed post] • 2:04p, 12/14/24
The risk isn't holding btc anymore. It's not having any Is the risk.
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FobTies
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2:21p, 12/14/24
MSTR CEO quotes, not mine. Imagine if any other asset was substituted in this same messaging. Call it promoting, pumping, or pleading. Maybe Saylor will bring this pump to a congressional hearing for a US gov BTC buying program.


"BTC is like electricity or fire or the internet"

"The BTC use case is to be rich and stay rich forever, it's what everyone wants, it's what 3 yr olds want."

"BTC represents the digital transformation of 100s of trillions of global capital, it's worth all the money in the world."

"BTC is the protocol for prosperity, it works for a company, a country, a family etc."

"The key to getting rich is buying BTC with cash or borrowed money."

"USD is a 40 ton sculpture in our backyard, imagine if I attach a flywheel to it, then it becomes a turbine plugged into a power plant making it a nuclear reactor." (Describing MSTR bond strategy)
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3:00p, 12/14/24
tysker
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In reply to FobTies • 6:15p, 12/14/24
You should buy BTC with borrowed money; but borrowing BTC to buy more BTC is antithetical, incongruent, and indeed paradoxical to BTC as an asset.
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boulderaggie
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In reply to FobTies • 11:00p, 12/14/24
FobTies said:
Did you guys happen to catch what the world central banking guy said about the decentralized money solution?

He said it's too volatile to be a store of value.

We should discuss how the new treasury and congress will consider, or not consider, that in the upcoming decision to buy $20B/yr of BTC into a strategic reserve. That seems to be where the current sentiment is trending.

Who cares about anyone missing old opportunities or not taking current opportunities. All that matters is what could potentially change sentiment in future around YOUR current position.

That's the spot to watch. Let's watch....
what happens to the price of BTC if/when the US starts buying BTC? Doubles? Triples? Parabolic?

Edit: Found some insight here:
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TexasRebel
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In reply to boulderaggie • 11:43p, 12/14/24
Think about a roller coaster.

It always ends exactly where it started. Energy turned to heat, but no work done.
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FobTies
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In reply to boulderaggie • 3:33a, 12/15/24
What happens if the US doesn't buy bitcoin and only transfers confiscated BTC to a "strategic reserve"?

There is probably a below 25% chance that the US GOV buys 200k/yr or a total of 5%/$20B in BTC. Which means there might be a 75% chance of a disappointment.

It's not that far away, which means lots of money on sideline to trade that binary news, up or down.
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Monywolf
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In reply to FobTies • 5:14a, 12/15/24
MSTR will buy want the US gov does not.
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to FobTies • 7:07a, 12/15/24
My opinion is the market hasn't priced in US buying because the market is doubtful it happens.
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to TexasRebel • 7:08a, 12/15/24
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Heineken-Ashi
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3:12p, 12/15/24
December 2024 Newsletter: The Rise of Digital Assets - Lyn Alden
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FobTies
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 5:11p, 12/15/24
Yukon Cornelius said:
My opinion is the market hasn't priced in US buying because the market is doubtful it happens.


What indications are there the market is doubtful on a strategic reserve?

Most of the recent run has coincided with Trumps pro BTC promises wining in Nov. The biggest of those promises was buying 5% of the BTC supply over 5 years.
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boulderaggie
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7:12p, 12/15/24
This explains bitcoin in a great compare/contrast way to S&P, real estate, gold, etc. Helped me better understand the potential (approx. 15min)
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to FobTies • 7:15p, 12/15/24
I think run has been because Trump won't be anti Bitcoin for sure. Unlike current administration.

It's also likely he will sign an executive order not to sell the btc already in US custody.

But Getting a bitcoin purchasing bill through Congress will be quite the feat I'm not sure anyone is confident. It's possible so you can speculate on it happening but I'm not convinced the majority of the market is. You'd have to show me evidence that the market is expecting that.
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FobTies
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 8:37p, 12/15/24
Guess the price action on the outcome from congress will ultimately be the evidence on what the market was expecting or not expecting.

I do think most accept that ultimately gov sponsorship is key to the longevity of bitcoin. That door needs to stay open. Trump has created a scenario where that door could be shut.


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tysker
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 11:12a, 12/16/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
December 2024 Newsletter: The Rise of Digital Assets - Lyn Alden
I like this analysis of BTC. It's like RE in Texas: There's no apparent need to liquidate your BTC unless you're trimming or moving. There is a natural upward bias because it's not an easily or cheaply shortable asset.

More and more coins will be stored off-chain ('under the mattress") and that don't move only add to the upward bias of price because the only real on-chain sellers are trimming, not liquidating.
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FobTies
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In reply to tysker • 12:50p, 12/16/24
Saylor also comparing to RE purchases. This will come to a head one way or another. Everyone accepts how bullish US buying would be, but for some reason many can't fathom how bearish it could be if it doesn't materialize.

As for shorting Bitcoin, I think MSTR is where that is consolidating. Bitcoin holders who aren't overleveraged have survived major drawdowns. I'm not sure MSTR could survive a 50% correction. Hard to borrow MSTR, but could be gamma crushed by puts on a neg catalyst. Like a reverse GME.

Last week Microsoft shareholders voted overwhelmingly against adding BTC to balance sheet. So if private sector continues to reject, that doesn't bode well for congress. We are still months away from this becoming a major anticipated event at fed level. Not sure about timing on all the props on ballot at State level.

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