Bitcoin on the path to irrelevance?

116,191 Views | 1824 Replies | Last: 16 days ago by FobTies
Adverse Event
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I won't summarize, as there's no way you consumed the material. Don't be lazy.

It's hard work.

*** Continue with the condescension to others and draw a ban -- Staff ***
TexasRebel
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AG
tysker said:

TexasRebel said:

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

TexasRebel said:

So…
Productive real estate.


Under the current system, it's one of few viable options. At the same time, what if people didn't feel compelled to pour resources into real estate and home prices fell to their utilitarian value such that young people were not priced out of the housing market?


Housing is not productive.

False as it has non-zero value and provides opportunities for creation of goods and services.


It has a non-zero value, but no production.

It's why populations get dense. Use as little land to house as many people as you can and the rest of the land can produce.

Waste all your available space on housing and the population moves out to a productive area.
Adverse Event
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Bitcoin is transparent, like the new moderation of Twitter and:
Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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Adverse Event said:

Bitcoin is transparent, like the new moderation of Twitter and:



Transparency may be key to trust, but I'd rather not have to trust at all.
Adverse Event
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Bitcoin, fortunately, cannot be selectively transparent, unlike the majority of social media sites.

So you can verify everything, unlike other standard operating procedures of private entities.
Pumpkinhead
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Transparency on blockchain is a bit of a misnomer. You can see transactions happened but not necessarily who is behind a particular address. Thus something like FTX still difficult to detective to whom money actually actually went and the reputation for criminals loving it to anonymously launder money.

And when hacks or fraud happen, the people hating on centralized government systems are first in line asking the authorities for help, filing lawsuits in the courts, etc. cause a utopian world where everyone is out on their own is great until someone takes your lunch money.
Adverse Event
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There's no relationship between bitcoin and FTX except that FTX sold paper bitcoin to unsuspecting fools.

And then stop mentioning "blockchains" when you meant "centralized internal databases." Or, you can call anything a blockchain (because it doesnt mean anything as a word, kinda like web3), but please differentiate Bitcoin's by calling it the "Timechain."

FTX was a series of IOU's that got washed back and forth between 2 databases, and one was betting all the funds on "Heads."

https://sarahconstantin.substack.com/p/why-infinite-coin-flipping-is-bad [if you want to read more about caroline and her coin-flipping, polycule, tendencies]


And as far as government goes, either provide a proper regulatory environment or don't. And preferably don't accept bribes from frauds for leniency.
LOYAL AG
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I used to have a TexAgs signature something like, "liberalism is an unfortunate side effect of capitalism". What that means is that liberalism can only exist in a world where all needs are met. That's how I'm starting to see the Bitcoin crowd. This conversation only happens in a world where food and energy and physical security are guaranteed. The last two of those things are guaranteed by the same governments that would have to relinquish control of the fiat currencies that have made them extremely wealthy and which are major cogs in the machines that keep them in power. It's simply illogical to think it ever matters at the scale the true believers think it will. There are significant parts of the world where energy isn't reliable, hell we're going to see that in Northern Europe this winter. Wonder what the Germans that bought firewood and stoves this summer think about a currency 100% dependent on reliable energy. I'm guessing they'll roll the dice with paper currency and worry about hyperinflation another day.
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
BusterAg
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The -US dollar has intrinsic value due to the backing by the US go ernment, and their taxing authority. If you want to participate in the US economy, you have to have dollars to pay taxes.

Yes, the Fed has diluted the value significantly, but the argument that it has no intrinsic value is incorrect.
cecil77
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Quote:

The -US dollar has intrinsic value due to the backing by the US government, and their taxing authority.

That's not what "intrinsic" really means...
BusterAg
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AG
cecil77 said:

Quote:

The -US dollar has intrinsic value due to the backing by the US government, and their taxing authority.

That's not what "intrinsic" really means...



The thought processes on this have changed significantly since the 70s. Having a medium of exchange that allows you to pay taxes has value, and that value is based on what the dollar is. The dollar will always have value as long as the US economy is going and the US government has the power to tax.

You can argue that is not what intrensic value classicalymeans, but the fundamentals of the economy and taxation guarantee that the dollar always has value. There will always be buyers of the dollar in order to pay taxes. Call it what you want.

BTC does not have that advantage. You have to differentiate currencies that belong to a taxing authority, and stuff like BTC that does not. Any crypto can go to zero. The dollar will not as long as there is no armageddon.
BusterAg
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Btc is likely to get significantly hurt when the US backed crypto comes out, for two reasons:

1 no capital gains taxes on the US backed crypto.
2) the Feds will force people into the US backed crypto. I would not put it past them to outlaw it for a broad number of things, including preventing financial service companies from holding it as collateral, or maybe even at all.

You can't fight the Feds. You will lose. If they want everything to go into US backed crypto, that is what will happen.
Buzzy
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Adverse Event said:

FTX was a series of IOU's that got washed back and forth between 2 databases, and one was betting all the funds on "Heads."

https://sarahconstantin.substack.com/p/why-infinite-coin-flipping-is-bad [if you want to read more about caroline and her coin-flipping, polycule, tendencies]

This comment from Scott Alexander on diminishing returns made me snort-laugh:

Quote:

First, it's true that $20K buys twice as many bed nets as $10K. But most of what FTX was funding wasn't bed nets - it was things like medical research, or lobbying, or AI research labs. The effectiveness of these things probably follows a power law distribution - your first dollar funds an amazing lobbying organization run by superstars, your hundred millionth dollar funds a so-so lobbying organization scraping the bottom of the barrel, and your ten billionth dollar funds a hobo with the word "LABIYIST" scrawled on his shirt.
Wild West Pimp Style
Adverse Event
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Speaking of illogical, if bitcoin incentivizes reliable energy and had been adopted sooner, do you think the ESG narrative that took hold by centralized planners and Central banks would have ever set foot in that country?

If incentivized production of energy took hold, would they have shut down their nuclear plants in favor of unreliable ESG products and carbon credits?

How have Texas and Germany, for instance, differed on their energy policies and relationships with bitcoin?
YouBet
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LOYAL AG said:

I used to have a TexAgs signature something like, "liberalism is an unfortunate side effect of capitalism". What that means is that liberalism can only exist in a world where all needs are met. That's how I'm starting to see the Bitcoin crowd. This conversation only happens in a world where food and energy and physical security are guaranteed. The last two of those things are guaranteed by the same governments that would have to relinquish control of the fiat currencies that have made them extremely wealthy and which are major cogs in the machines that keep them in power. It's simply illogical to think it ever matters at the scale the true believers think it will. There are significant parts of the world where energy isn't reliable, hell we're going to see that in Northern Europe this winter. Wonder what the Germans that bought firewood and stoves this summer think about a currency 100% dependent on reliable energy. I'm guessing they'll roll the dice with paper currency and worry about hyperinflation another day.
I'm a BTC fan and hope and pray for wide scale adoption, however you are not wrong. We now have officials in Europe publicly proclaiming that an expectation of having energy 24/7 is no longer a realistic goal for developed societies. That is unf'ingbelievable that in the name of renewables we are going to sacrifice humanity and progress. The noble savage that serves the elites seems to be where we want to head as humanity.

Specifically on Germany, it was interesting to learn that 60% of Germans still use cash as their primary transactional money. That is shockingly high. Makes me wonder if there will be any pushback to EU CBDC as it rolls out although I'm sure they will go along right with it since the Germans will do most anything their government tells them to do even if it's murdering their own.

The only chance BTC has at this point is if enough Americans realize the inherent tyrannical purpose of CBDC. Probably a 5% chance of that since half of Americans now embrace leftist tyranny and actively work to carry it out. Even conservatives scoff and laugh at BTC as "tulips!" just so they can be self-righteous and play the I Told You So card all the while US CBDC is looking right over their shoulder laughing at them for what's coming.
Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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BusterAg said:

cecil77 said:

Quote:

The -US dollar has intrinsic value due to the backing by the US government, and their taxing authority.

That's not what "intrinsic" really means...



The thought processes on this have changed significantly since the 70s. Having a medium of exchange that allows you to pay taxes has value, and that value is based on what the dollar is. The dollar will always have value as long as the US economy is going and the US government has the power to tax.

You can argue that is not what intrensic value classicalymeans, but the fundamentals of the economy and taxation guarantee that the dollar always has value. There will always be buyers of the dollar in order to pay taxes. Call it what you want.

BTC does not have that advantage. You have to differentiate currencies that belong to a taxing authority, and stuff like BTC that does not. Any crypto can go to zero. The dollar will not as long as there is no armageddon.


I've read that historically all fiat currencies have eventually gone to zero. If that is true, why would Armageddon be a requirement for it to happen to the US dollar? It seems more likely to me that the debt spiral will eventually result in hyperinflation of weaker currencies and that the USD will be the last one to fall.
Adverse Event
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"You can't fight the feds"
And
"Private guns protect us from the government"

What value is the 2nd amendment when we are surrounded by ball-gagged cowards?
Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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YouBet said:

LOYAL AG said:

I used to have a TexAgs signature something like, "liberalism is an unfortunate side effect of capitalism". What that means is that liberalism can only exist in a world where all needs are met. That's how I'm starting to see the Bitcoin crowd. This conversation only happens in a world where food and energy and physical security are guaranteed. The last two of those things are guaranteed by the same governments that would have to relinquish control of the fiat currencies that have made them extremely wealthy and which are major cogs in the machines that keep them in power. It's simply illogical to think it ever matters at the scale the true believers think it will. There are significant parts of the world where energy isn't reliable, hell we're going to see that in Northern Europe this winter. Wonder what the Germans that bought firewood and stoves this summer think about a currency 100% dependent on reliable energy. I'm guessing they'll roll the dice with paper currency and worry about hyperinflation another day.
I'm a BTC fan and hope and pray for wide scale adoption, however you are not wrong. We now have officials in Europe publicly proclaiming that an expectation of having energy 24/7 is no longer a realistic goal for developed societies. That is unf'ingbelievable that in the name of renewables we are going to sacrifice humanity and progress. The noble savage that serves the elites seems to be where we want to head as humanity.

Specifically on Germany, it was interesting to learn that 60% of Germans still use cash as their primary transactional money. That is shockingly high. Makes me wonder if there will be any pushback to EU CBDC as it rolls out although I'm sure they will go along right with it since the Germans will do most anything their government tells them to do even if it's murdering their own.

The only chance BTC has at this point is if enough Americans realize the inherent tyrannical purpose of CBDC. Probably a 5% chance of that since half of Americans now embrace leftist tyranny and actively work to carry it out. Even conservatives scoff and laugh at BTC as "tulips!" just so they can be self-righteous and play the I Told You So card all the while US CBDC is looking right over their shoulder laughing at them for what's coming.


I think fear of CDBCs among liberty lovers should be the main reason people otherwise disinterested in Bitcoin should consider learning about it and getting off zero. If there is say a 1% chance it could prevent the potential tyranny of CDBCs, why not spend a few hours and put $100-200 into it? You'd learn something and maybe, just maybe, do something more significant about government overreach than voting or, dare I say it, complaining on a college message board.
YouBet
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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

YouBet said:

LOYAL AG said:

I used to have a TexAgs signature something like, "liberalism is an unfortunate side effect of capitalism". What that means is that liberalism can only exist in a world where all needs are met. That's how I'm starting to see the Bitcoin crowd. This conversation only happens in a world where food and energy and physical security are guaranteed. The last two of those things are guaranteed by the same governments that would have to relinquish control of the fiat currencies that have made them extremely wealthy and which are major cogs in the machines that keep them in power. It's simply illogical to think it ever matters at the scale the true believers think it will. There are significant parts of the world where energy isn't reliable, hell we're going to see that in Northern Europe this winter. Wonder what the Germans that bought firewood and stoves this summer think about a currency 100% dependent on reliable energy. I'm guessing they'll roll the dice with paper currency and worry about hyperinflation another day.
I'm a BTC fan and hope and pray for wide scale adoption, however you are not wrong. We now have officials in Europe publicly proclaiming that an expectation of having energy 24/7 is no longer a realistic goal for developed societies. That is unf'ingbelievable that in the name of renewables we are going to sacrifice humanity and progress. The noble savage that serves the elites seems to be where we want to head as humanity.

Specifically on Germany, it was interesting to learn that 60% of Germans still use cash as their primary transactional money. That is shockingly high. Makes me wonder if there will be any pushback to EU CBDC as it rolls out although I'm sure they will go along right with it since the Germans will do most anything their government tells them to do even if it's murdering their own.

The only chance BTC has at this point is if enough Americans realize the inherent tyrannical purpose of CBDC. Probably a 5% chance of that since half of Americans now embrace leftist tyranny and actively work to carry it out. Even conservatives scoff and laugh at BTC as "tulips!" just so they can be self-righteous and play the I Told You So card all the while US CBDC is looking right over their shoulder laughing at them for what's coming.


I think fear of CDBCs among liberty lovers should be the main reason people otherwise disinterested in Bitcoin should consider learning about it and getting off zero. If there is say a 1% chance it could prevent the potential tyranny of CDBCs, why not spend a few hours and put $100-200 into it? You'd learn something and maybe, just maybe, do something more significant about government overreach than voting or, dare I say it, complaining on a college message board.
I completely agree but they won't. It's much more fun to point and laugh. They will at least have that when the government is dictating what, when, how, and why they spend their US digital dollars in a few years because their social credit score isn't high enough to spend how they want.
tysker
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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

BusterAg said:

cecil77 said:

Quote:

The -US dollar has intrinsic value due to the backing by the US government, and their taxing authority.

That's not what "intrinsic" really means...



The thought processes on this have changed significantly since the 70s. Having a medium of exchange that allows you to pay taxes has value, and that value is based on what the dollar is. The dollar will always have value as long as the US economy is going and the US government has the power to tax.

You can argue that is not what intrensic value classicalymeans, but the fundamentals of the economy and taxation guarantee that the dollar always has value. There will always be buyers of the dollar in order to pay taxes. Call it what you want.

BTC does not have that advantage. You have to differentiate currencies that belong to a taxing authority, and stuff like BTC that does not. Any crypto can go to zero. The dollar will not as long as there is no armageddon.


I've read that historically all fiat currencies have eventually gone to zero. If that is true, why would Armageddon be a requirement for it to happen to the US dollar? It seems more likely to me that the debt spiral will eventually result in hyperinflation of weaker currencies and that the USD will be the last one to fall.

Gold and silver have been used as fiat under several regimes over thousands of years and are not at zero.
Pumpkinhead
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If the USD ever fails ya'll won't have to worry about your Bitcoin. Ya'll be worrying about how to survive day to day. That Bitcoin balance won't be worth sh*t.
YouBet
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Pumpkinhead said:

If the USD ever fails ya'll won't have to worry about your Bitcoin. Ya'll be worrying about how to survive day to day. That Bitcoin balance won't be worth sh*t.
Of course. At that point, who gives a **** about anything but surviving. We will be killing one another for food.

Premise of this conversation assumes a working society.
_mpaul
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I found an article about Adverse Event:

Crypto's 'true believers' crave being all-in, all the time. Here's how they might learn to protect themselves.
Paper. An insane deer. Taco meat.
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Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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tysker said:

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

BusterAg said:

cecil77 said:

Quote:

The -US dollar has intrinsic value due to the backing by the US government, and their taxing authority.

That's not what "intrinsic" really means...



The thought processes on this have changed significantly since the 70s. Having a medium of exchange that allows you to pay taxes has value, and that value is based on what the dollar is. The dollar will always have value as long as the US economy is going and the US government has the power to tax.

You can argue that is not what intrensic value classicalymeans, but the fundamentals of the economy and taxation guarantee that the dollar always has value. There will always be buyers of the dollar in order to pay taxes. Call it what you want.

BTC does not have that advantage. You have to differentiate currencies that belong to a taxing authority, and stuff like BTC that does not. Any crypto can go to zero. The dollar will not as long as there is no armageddon.


I've read that historically all fiat currencies have eventually gone to zero. If that is true, why would Armageddon be a requirement for it to happen to the US dollar? It seems more likely to me that the debt spiral will eventually result in hyperinflation of weaker currencies and that the USD will be the last one to fall.

Gold and silver have been used as fiat under several regimes over thousands of years and are not at zero.


I don't consider gold and silver to be fiat. Here's a typical definition from Investopedia:

"Fiat money is a government-issued currency that is not backed by a physical commodity, such as gold or silver, but rather by the government that issued it. The value of fiat money is derived from the relationship between supply and demand and the stability of the issuing government, rather than the worth of a commodity backing it. Most modern paper currencies are fiat currencies, including the U.S. dollar, the euro, and other major global currencies."

Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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YouBet said:

Pumpkinhead said:

If the USD ever fails ya'll won't have to worry about your Bitcoin. Ya'll be worrying about how to survive day to day. That Bitcoin balance won't be worth sh*t.
Of course. At that point, who gives a **** about anything but surviving. We will be killing one another for food.

Premise of this conversation assumes a working society.


Failure can happen many different ways. There are a lot of people suffering in places like Venezuela and various African countries who are thankful that Bitcoin exists.
Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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ac04 said:

the USD does not have to fail for bitcoin to be successful. it is far more likely to become a global reserve asset than a global reserve currency.


I agree. I think that is a more likely scenario.
Adverse Event
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Pumpkinhead said:

If the USD ever fails ya'll won't have to worry about your Bitcoin. Ya'll be worrying about how to survive day to day. That Bitcoin balance won't be worth sh*t.


I'm under the boards assumption that the US Fed Gov is infinite and omniscient, and deserves our worship. So what worry is there about the USD failing?
Adverse Event
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If something says crypto, you can be assured it has nothing to do with me.

tysker
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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

tysker said:

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

BusterAg said:

cecil77 said:

Quote:

The -US dollar has intrinsic value due to the backing by the US government, and their taxing authority.

That's not what "intrinsic" really means...



The thought processes on this have changed significantly since the 70s. Having a medium of exchange that allows you to pay taxes has value, and that value is based on what the dollar is. The dollar will always have value as long as the US economy is going and the US government has the power to tax.

You can argue that is not what intrensic value classicalymeans, but the fundamentals of the economy and taxation guarantee that the dollar always has value. There will always be buyers of the dollar in order to pay taxes. Call it what you want.

BTC does not have that advantage. You have to differentiate currencies that belong to a taxing authority, and stuff like BTC that does not. Any crypto can go to zero. The dollar will not as long as there is no armageddon.


I've read that historically all fiat currencies have eventually gone to zero. If that is true, why would Armageddon be a requirement for it to happen to the US dollar? It seems more likely to me that the debt spiral will eventually result in hyperinflation of weaker currencies and that the USD will be the last one to fall.

Gold and silver have been used as fiat under several regimes over thousands of years and are not at zero.


I don't consider gold and silver to be fiat. Here's a typical definition from Investopedia:

"Fiat money is a government-issued currency that is not backed by a physical commodity, such as gold or silver, but rather by the government that issued it. The value of fiat money is derived from the relationship between supply and demand and the stability of the issuing government, rather than the worth of a commodity backing it. Most modern paper cureencies fiat currencies, including the U.S. dollar, the euro, and other major global currencies."



That's only true within the last century. Use of fiat in government and non-governmental forms has existed for centuries across the world and cultures.

BTC is now fiat in El Salvador and aids that government in tracking and monitor its citizens and their wealth
Adverse Event
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El salvador cannot make bitcoin from nothing.

How do you not grasp the difference?
tysker
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ac04 said:

the USD does not have to fail for bitcoin to be successful. it is far more likely to become a global reserve asset than a global reserve currency.

Another global reserve asset that central banks use to fund the IMF and hedge the inflation caused by overspending of their own governments?
tysker
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Adverse Event said:

El salvador cannot make bitcoin from nothing.

How do you not grasp the difference?

The government designated it as legal tender and helicopter dropped them i to people's accounts. You can pay taxes in BTC, damn sure their government is going to use force and get those BTC back. How else is the government going to pay its bills?
Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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Adverse Event said:

El salvador cannot make bitcoin from nothing.

How do you not grasp the difference?


Disingenuous sophistry.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair
Adverse Event
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So when do they create bitcoin from nothing? I'm confused?
 
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