Bitcoin on the path to irrelevance?

111,576 Views | 1822 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by Yukon Cornelius
Pumpkinhead
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AG
Adverse Event said:

I'm in it to not be poor, or reliant on a benevolent oligopolistic technocracy.




It doesn't seem much different than buying art. Why does some painting get bought for N dollars? Because it is scarce and somebody is willing to pay N dollars for it. But if a it disappeared tomorrow your standard of living wouldn't change. Because like art it really isn't that useful or does any thing of true value. Well I guess some good art can at least make your home look nicer. Can't do that owning some hash codes.

IT is like art but with hundreds of bloggers and you tubers and ecosystem where many pushing hard the dream that everybody is going to get rich. Just buy some Bitcoin and sit back and wait for the price to go up up up. It sounds so easy.

You bought some, you basically bought a painting. It is worth something cause other people are willing to buy it for some amount from you.

It seems unlikely to ever change the traditional banking system in a notable way and its price will probably rise and fall generally tracking the macro economy - just with steeper climbs and steeper falls because of the extreme volatility. In good times, more people have the extra cash to throw at art auctions. And crypto.
Adverse Event
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"Seems to be" a lot of things. Yep.

But it isn't. It's bitcoin, not art, or stocks, or commodities, or crypto and on and on.

i-miss-the-republic
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It's Tulips. Look up the reference.
Burdizzo
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AG
If this thread wasn't enough, here is a chance to learn more from my WhatsApp feed this morning.


Adverse Event
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I've read some pretty detailed history about the tulip craze. Could you be more specific?
Maybe just a brief similarities and differences list?

Just to confirm you aren't doing something silly like repeating another monkey without gaining any knowledge depth of your own.


Speaking of the Dutch, however, this is what you get when you don't unburden the government of their responsibilities.
CDUB98
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AG
I have no idea what this whole tulip thing is about, but I vaguely remember reading something along those lines years ago. Basically a scam, right?
Adverse Event
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I'll write up my own, but I want to see if anyone actually has anything of value to write about the 3 month Dutch tulip craze whilst their currency was in turmoil, amongst an exceptionally small group of wealthy Dutch.

Here, I'll even give the group a decent source:
https://www.history.com/news/tulip-mania-financial-crash-holland

For those who don't click links:
Quote:

She only found 37 people who paid more than 300 guilders for a tulip bulb, the equivalent of what a skilled craftsman earned in a year.


Quote:

"I only identified about 350 people who were involved in the trade, although I'm sure that number is on the low side because I didn't look at every town," says Goldgar. "Those people were very often connected with each other in various ways, through a profession, family or religion."


For the more inclined, mises explains the monetary environment and describes how the mania was no mania at all, but wealthy people maximizing their "stores of wealth" outside of a fluctuating currency.

https://mises.org/library/dutch-monetary-environment-during-tulipmania

Quote:

It is highly probable that in Kindleberger's view the supply of money in 1630s Holland, did not undergo the sudden increase needed to create a speculative bubble. But this paper will present evidence to the contrary; the supply of money did increase dramatically in 1630s Holland, serving to engender the tulipmania episode.


Quote:

As the above evidence indicates, free coinage, the Bank of Amsterdam, and the heightened trade and commerce in Holland served to attract coin and bullion from throughout the world. As Del Mar (1969a, p. 351) writes:

Under the stimulus of "free" coinage, an immense quantity of the precious metals now found their way to Holland, and a rise of prices ensued, which found one form of expression in the curious mania of buying tulips at prices often exceeding that of the ground on which they were grown.

Del Mar (1969a, p. 352) goes on to discuss the end of Tulipmania:

In 1648, when the Peace of Westphalia acknowledged the independence of the Dutch republic, the latter stopped the "free" coinage of silver florins and only permitted it for gold ducats, which in Holland had no legal value. This legislation discouraged the imports of silver bullion, checked the rise of prices, and put an end to the tulip mania.

Del Mar concedes in a footnote that the mania had already been discouraged on April 27th, 1637 by a resolution of the States-General that canceled all contracts.


Meaning a majority of the craze was PAPER tulips, not tulips themselves during a time of MASSIVE monetary supply increases resulted from free coinage. Wealthy people were trying to outdo the monetary supply and when out of control, had the authorities to cancel their contracts. Sounds more like 2008 housing crisis than bitcoin. But what the fudge could I know.
MR Gadsden
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CDUB98 said:

I have no idea what this whole tulip thing is about, but I vaguely remember reading something along those lines years ago. Basically a scam, right?
tulips were more of a bubble than a scam. But Tulips and Bitcoin aren't a good analogy at all. It's pretty much the lazy way to dismiss Bitcoin. People who dig into Bitcoin and understand the reason behind it (you dont have to understand the technology 100%) see it's value.

I highly recommend Layered Money by Nik Bhatia as a starting place for anyone on the fence and wants to learn more. You can get it on Audible if you don't want to read it. But it's really the history of money, defining what sound money is, explaining how no government in the history of the world has ever not debased the value of it's currency and how bitcoin is the response to that. It's a good read (or listen).
Adverse Event
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Hm, I'd expect more people chiming in about tulips...

Guess it was just a bunch of monkey see monkey do chatter

Bueller?
TexasRebel
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AG
Due to one botanist owning 51% of the flower grow operations, the Tulip Craze was revised to be orchids.
Adverse Event
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Preferably comments from people who dress themselves.
Adverse Event
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ERCOT: Tulips support the Texas Energy Grid



TexasRebel
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AG
"Stabilize" and "support" are not equivalent.
Burdizzo
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AG
The only difference I see between a tulip bulb and a Bitcoin or Sat is that if you put a tulip bulb in the ground it probably grow into a plant.

So far, HEB has refused to accept both Bitcoins and tulip bulbs for legal tender when purchasing groceries.
agdad4x
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Our dollar (and any currency) is worth something only because the US Government (or an appropriate government) says it will back up the dollar (or other currency) and the world accepts the idea that the dollar (or other currency) is thus worth something -

crypto currency was/is worth something because someone somewhere decided that it did have a value and that person was willing to pay for the cryptocurrency with a real dollar (or other currency) -- the same could be said for Monopoly money, if someone somewhere was willing to pay for the monopoly money with a real dollar or another real (accepted) currency.

Adverse Event
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TexasRebel said:

"Stabilize" and "support" are not equivalent.


Damn treb, you read ERCOT's 21 page report within 7 minutes and then reduced the whole thing to 6 words.

We need to get you into a leadership role.
Adverse Event
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Burdizzo said:

The only difference I see between a tulip bulb and a Bitcoin or Sat is that if you put a tulip bulb in the ground it probably grow into a plant.

So far, HEB has refused to accept both Bitcoins and tulip bulbs for legal tender when purchasing groceries.


Didjaknow, you can buy and sell Bitcoin at HEB? You can only buy tulips, sometimes.

Some skulls are as dense as a collapsing star.
Adverse Event
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Good thesis.

Cite your work?
Adverse Event
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"One of the greatest pains to human nature is the pain of a new idea."
-walter bagehot

Another reason why I recommend cannabis or psychedelics to numb the pain enough to get bitcoin through black hole skulls.
Burdizzo
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AG
Adverse Event said:

Burdizzo said:

The only difference I see between a tulip bulb and a Bitcoin or Sat is that if you put a tulip bulb in the ground it probably grow into a plant.

So far, HEB has refused to accept both Bitcoins and tulip bulbs for legal tender when purchasing groceries.



Didjaknow, you can buy and sell Bitcoin at HEB? You can only buy tulips, sometimes.


Some skulls are as dense as a collapsing star.



Selected HEB locations in the Houston area.

A kiosk provided by a third party.

So basically an ATM machine.

HEB accepts my ATM/debit card and cash, but only select locations have the Bitcoin kiosk to exchange for UncleSamCoin
Adverse Event
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I dont shop at HEB, but i did go directly to the source and paid for my half beef to a local rancher in bitcoin.

And some wine from a local vineyard.

And some weed from a local grower.

Meanwhile Mr. Butte is taking your money and throwing it at super special story time sessions for your kids.

Support what you will my friend.
Burdizzo
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AG
Adverse Event said:

I dont shop at HEB, but i did go directly to the source and paid for my half beef to a local rancher in bitcoin.

And some wine from a local vineyard.

And some weed from a local grower.

Meanwhile Mr. Butte is taking your money and throwing it at super special story time sessions for your kids.

Support what you will my friend.



So now this is about HEB?
Adverse Event
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I could see how it's confusing.

It's about you, and which behaviors you'd like to see fruit and thrive.

While we are here, anyone looking to source grass-fed and finished beef, check out the Texas Beef Initiative and/or K&C Cattle. Great group of farmers practicing regenerative Agriculture and supplying their communities with exceptional quality products.



If you're in Colorado, check out my rancher, Wrich Ranch.
PlaneCrashGuy
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AG
White Oak Pastures
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
Adverse Event
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It's not HEB, but:
Quote:

Brazilian lawmakers have approved a complete regulatory framework for crypto, regulating the use of bitcoin as payment.
Burdizzo
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AG
Adverse Event said:



It's not HEB, but:
Quote:

Brazilian lawmakers have approved a complete regulatory framework for crypto, regulating the use of bitcoin as payment.




I didn't think it required regulatory approval?
Adverse Event
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And going back to OP, since we wandered far off the path:

*** Find a way to make your point without embedding a dozen Twitter shots. You are spamming the thread when you do that -- Staff ***
Adverse Event
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It doesn't, but it does give a framework, and reinforces the concept that government cant/won't ban it, and will instead promote it due to the positive incentives (game theory, it's hard).
TexasRebel
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AG
I distinctly remember the claim that "bitcoin isn't crypto".
tysker
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AG
Adverse Event said:



It's not HEB, but:
Quote:

Brazilian lawmakers have approved a complete regulatory framework for crypto, regulating the use of bitcoin as payment.

Fake news.
Credit via fiat was extended at several points along the way from banana harvesting to shipping to storing to shipping again to retail. Even in payments to labor and overhead. BTC was used no different than venmo or zelle in this final transaction.
Pumpkinhead
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AG
Something like Bitcoin will never become truly mainstream without centralized companies facilitating the process for the average Joe who isn't going to be able to technically handle the responsibility of cold storing his own stuff, lending, borrowing, etc. when uncle Joe dies, where did his keys go? How do I get a mortgage?, make a steady interest income from deposits? How do I make sure my money isn't stolen or make sure I am insured if it is? who is making personal financial management as easy for me like an average bank does? And making me feel just as safe where my money is sitting?

Oh, it is a bunch of unregulated potentially shady as f*** exchange companies who have made billions out of thin air the past few years and who may or may not steal me blind on any given day.

So, not your keys, not your crypto - it is all on you - but now you are back to not mainstream with a bunch of people having gotten burned the past year.

Ironically, over and over again big names in the crypto world who preached about how bad the U.S. government is were themselves simply printing money out of thin air and commuting massive fraud. People see that and understandably have doubts and skepticism.
tysker
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AG
NYKNYC is the primary stumbling block.
You cant hedge it. You cant insure it. You cant loan it and you cant hold it and receive a guaranteed rate of return. BTC prices seem to based on speculative value of adoption. By definition its not based on a supply/demand curve like other commodities and currencies. At least ****coins have a supply/demand function of their underlying value.
Adverse Event
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What percentage of human potential labor is trapped making "financial decisions" because the value of their labor melts away over time due to inflation/etc?

If you weren't stuck 20 years in finance, what would you have done with your life instead?
Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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AG
Adverse Event said:

What percentage of human potential labor is trapped making "financial decisions" because the value of their labor melts away over time due to inflation/etc?

If you weren't stuck 20 years in finance, what would you have done with your life instead?


You have to chase yield to try to stay ahead of inflation due to money printing. Then if you succeed, you get hit with capital gains taxes, which are essentially a tax on inflation avoidance. How great would it be if your money just held its value or even got more valuable due to technological advances?
TexasRebel
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AG
So…
Productive real estate.
 
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