CDUB98 said:

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In so much as the gov't doesn't care about our conversation, no.

But, the gov't does not like the competition of BTC, and since it is nothing more than speculative, makes it risky against gov't intervention.

I trust gov'ts less than I do BTC. What happens when the gov't on which BTC is valued decides it wants to try and regulate some aspect? Does the market just shift the British Pound, or the Euro, or do they go wild into the Moroccan Diram?

Our conversation here only differs in that the medium is 1s and 0s rather than vibrations from our throats if we were in person.

A transaction in BTC is no different than an exchange of dollars other than the medium.

What makes BTC so attractive to true believers like Adverse that I should dump all my free cash into it as the only mechanism to transact? Yes, I'm being a bit facetious. To do this, one must believe that BTC will never lose value against the dollar or be abandoned by the marketplace.

Also, what makes BTC so much better than other cryptos? Are the others open ended code that allows for infinite amounts?

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good questions. you seem stuck on the idea that money is something that has to be issued by a government and that's not the case. part of my compensation this year will be stock options. in that transaction, stock options are money. governments occasionally settle debts in oil instead of currency. in that transaction, oil is money. in prison, cigarettes are money. in the lunch room at my kids' school, candy is money. bitcoin can be traded for any currency or for any good or service, it isn't tied to any specific fiat currency to facilitate exchange.

i don't know that anyone would recommend dumping all your cash into bitcoin, it is a tool that should be part of your arsenal but not your only weapon. we are decades from that point in my opinion, still way too much volatility ahead. but if you have a low time preference and you're able to tolerate some risk it is a fantastic opportunity for diversification.

what makes bitcoin so much better than other cryptos is that it was both an invention and a discovery. the invention was a solution to the double-spend problem (AKA the byzantine generals problem) that had prevented digital currencies from being useful up to that point, and in the process digital scarcity was discovered. that moment cannot be recreated. all other cryptocurrencies are affinity scams that prey on people who think there will be a "next bitcoin." these scams usually involve a group of insiders (usually VCs) who create seigniorage with a premine they will eventually dump on retail, and its getting worse with each new wave of ****coins:



the difference between bitcoin and ****coins is a very important concept, for more on this topic i would recommend this white paper from fidelity: https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/sites/default/files/documents/bitcoin-first.pdf

CDUB98 said:

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What are sats?

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The smallest unit and only unit described in the coding of bitcoin. Satoshis (sats) were named such as an homage to the creator(s) of the protocol.

There are debates about nomenclature of different denominations that have happened over 14 years. Some folk will use Bits instead of Sats. I'm personally agnostic.

There will only ever be 2.1 Quadrillion sats, otherwise written as 21M Bitcoin.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Units

If you read, you'll see the term millisats. In lightning you can actually use fractions of a satoshi.

I don't understand BTC enough to invest in it either (I get the basics, and briefly thought about it when it was around 25K or so the first time). It did have an impressive run up in valuation, over an extended period of time, which sort of fueled the interest I think.

It seems clear that government monetary policies as far flung as China, the EU, the US Dollar, and basically everywhere else that matters has created a strong interest in some way to invest/transact outside of the printing presses devaluing a lot of currency globally.

I've yet to read a solid plan for how to transform that into a solid investment strategy/platform, though. As a conservative/free market fan I do hope it happens, as I think the leftists/communists/swamp destroying our currency could be themselves partially disempowered if something significantly displaces the fiat currencies of today.

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good questions. you seem stuck on the idea that money is something that has to be issued by a government and that's not the case.

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Appreciate your understanding of me, ac04, based on our long history on this site.

You're correct that I am a bit hung up here, because it is somewhat reality. Per your examples, whether gold, oil, real estate, or pork bellies, all of those eventually tie back to a currency denominated exchange with that currency issued by a gov't. From my standpoint, BTC is only a different commodity of exchange.

I'll give an example of an argument I've had a couple of times with a friend. He's in the energy trading business, and as part of this, carbon credits are swapped between companies so that they can all hit their green targets. He's happy that everyone gets to say they went green and are saving the planet. I asked him if it actually reduces one molecule of CO2 going into the atmosphere. He gets flustered, and falls back to the line of, it made money, people hit their green targets. I ask again. He continues stammering. I finally interrupt him and flat say no. At the end of the day, none of these carbon swaps do anything to reduce CO2. They only serve to make companies money in the arbitrage and allow them to put out a feel good press release.

I see BTC in much the same light. In the ultimate end, you're still exchanging a gov't denominated currency.

I'll reiterate for the others, the decentralized ability for transacting and the reduction of fees is truly a benefit, and one that can certainly gain intrinsic value as gov'ts clamp down on social engineering.

But until wide adoption where people and companies are pricing/exchanging fully removed from currencies, then it always falls back to a gov't currency.

And, based on that, combined with the fact that there is no hard asset, this is why my opinion on BTC remains skeptical.

I wish we could sticky this post. Is there any interest in setting up a telegram chat for those who want to take this offline?

As a general question; How widespread is the use of BTC in China?

China is THE exact lab experiment we touch on throughout all of these discussions. Social credit ratings that can inhibit transactions as well as a, realistically, unstable currency. Why do we not ever hear about widespread use there? I don't recall ever seeing anyone here mention China, and I've certainly never seen it mentioned in the mainstream financial media.

CDUB98 said:

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Quote:

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good questions. you seem stuck on the idea that money is something that has to be issued by a government and that's not the case.

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Appreciate your understanding of me, ac04, based on our long history on this site.

You're correct that I am a bit hung up here, because it is somewhat reality. Per your examples, whether gold, oil, real estate, or pork bellies, all of those eventually tie back to a currency denominated exchange with that currency issued by a gov't. From my standpoint, BTC is only a different commodity of exchange.

I'll give an example of an argument I've had a couple of times with a friend. He's in the energy trading business, and as part of this, carbon credits are swapped between companies so that they can all hit their green targets. He's happy that everyone gets to say they went green and are saving the planet. I asked him if it actually reduces one molecule of CO2 going into the atmosphere. He gets flustered, and falls back to the line of, it made money, people hit their green targets. I ask again. He continues stammering. I finally interrupt him and flat say no. At the end of the day, none of these carbon swaps do anything to reduce CO2. They only serve to make companies money in the arbitrage and allow them to put out a feel good press release.

I see BTC in much the same light. In the ultimate end, you're still exchanging a gov't denominated currency.

I'll reiterate for the others, the decentralized ability for transacting and the reduction of fees is truly a benefit, and one that can certainly gain intrinsic value as gov'ts clamp down on social engineering.

But until wide adoption where people and companies are pricing/exchanging fully removed from currencies, then it always falls back to a gov't currency.

And, based on that, combined with the fact that there is no hard asset, this is why my opinion on BTC remains skeptical.

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skepticism is healthy. everyone who believes in bitcoin was once a skeptic because it is a radical new idea. there is risk involved, it is not a guarantee that it will work. but if you believe we may eventually get to the point where wide adoption facilitates exchange using bitcoin without any need for conversion to another currency, the opportunity for appreciation is almost unfathomable. i believe this is possible because so far bitcoin is being adopted faster than any other technology in history, mainly because the foundation for it was already built decades ago, it is a digitally native asset perfectly suited for the internet. in my opinion it is the most asymmetric risk/reward asset that currently exists.

i would encourage you to keep going down the rabbit hole because it is fascinating even if you ultimately decide its not for you. this article from 2018 is a good place to start: https://vijayboyapati.medium.com/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1

Now we are getting into some very interesting Questions. China was one of the world's largest countries for mining Bitcoin not too long ago. And the government banned Bitcoin mining. When that happened, most of the miners sold their equipment or fled and a lot of them ended up here in Texas. So we know that bitcoin was very relevant in China not too long ago. And I would guess that they're still Bitcoin being used in the country now. I don't have statistics to back that up, but I'll do a little bit of research on the subject.

CDUB98 said:

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As a general question; How widespread is the use of BTC in China?

China is THE exact lab experiment we touch on throughout all of these discussions. Social credit ratings that can inhibit transactions as well as a, realistically, unstable currency. Why do we not ever hear about widespread use there? I don't recall ever seeing anyone here mention China, and I've certainly never seen it mentioned in the mainstream financial media.

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china has banned bitcoin probably 20 times. they finally successfully banned mining in july/august 2021 and the hash rate in china plummeted from something like 70% all the way to 0%. but since then it has slowly crept back up to the point where approximately 20% of mining takes place in china (the second most of any country) despite a total ban by the most authoritarian government on earth. governments cannot stop bitcoin, it is antifragile.

If the shtf, bullion, bullets, booze (and booty) will buy you what you need. Bitcoin, not so much.

That's a very good and logical question, given the comparisons, that no one likely has a good answer to. The CCP banned mining and made transactions illegal under their laws in 2020-21.

However, possession is still legal and there is no way prevent or censor peer to peer transactions. As a result, I doubt there's a way to know how many P2P transactions are actually happening.

It's worth noting that China currently has 20%+ of the hash rate and is the most common country for decentralized mining pools. I spent some time this week looking into pools for a personal project.

thx, vijay is a very interesting guy. His book is 10 bucks on amazon fwiw.

https://mises.org/profile/vijay-boyapati

CDUB98 said:

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As a general question; How widespread is the use of BTC in China?

China is THE exact lab experiment we touch on throughout all of these discussions. Social credit ratings that can inhibit transactions as well as a, realistically, unstable currency. Why do we not ever hear about widespread use there? I don't recall ever seeing anyone here mention China, and I've certainly never seen it mentioned in the mainstream financial media.

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there was large usage in China, and probably still is.

the communists eventually have banned crypto several times, but supposedly there is still a very large usage group.

coinbase can detect large usage of their site from Asia first thing in the morning their time each day.

Adverse Event said:

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Kearney McRaven said:

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The value of bitcoin is centered around its' ability to be readily accepted as currency for goods and services. So, when its value continues to display a volatile history from widely separated lows and highs with few quality explanations, and reports of lost and stolen bitcoins continue to be reported, people loose confidence. This loss in confidence is further accentuated by the other crypto scams and failures.

Confidence is key in the future existence of bitcoin. As this path moves forward, a few more mistakes, and bitcoin will be no more. Additionally, utility is missing. Confidence and security is built with the scared and unsure investors by allowing them to hold and possess or gain some form of additional utility other than buying power.

The populous has to be able to understand the concept, and in this case, bitcoin it is similar to the MRNA vaccine. No understanding, public mistrust and explanations being given are typically framed as you are too dumb to understand this brilliant concept, so just do as you are told.

Last, there is no barrier to entry into the crypto currency exchange, how many currencies are in existence? How many more new currencies will begin in the upcoming years? Transparency and confidence are missing elements of crypto, and those are major two obstacles to overcome when trying to build confidence.

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1.
Every criticism levied against bitcoin in its 14 years of life (not a mrna vaccine that was never been tested in the public, waS rushed through development, had active collusion of media, tech, politicians and regulators worldwide, etc... what a fkn horrible assessment to compare the two

Every criticism levied against bitcoin has at least 1 10,000 word essay that you can consume to further educate yourself. And more written to explain from different views or references.

Public confidence in bitcoin at this point has more to do with the world collapsing around the public and less to do with the excessively stable protocol itself.

The more we watch our government collude, the more we watch them salivating looking at our 401k's and wealth we planned to transmit to our children and theirs, the more we see regulatory capture, lies and deceit from our TRUSTED administrators, bitcoin's trustless nature gains more confidence amongst the less inclined to trudge through the complex details and those willing to start the process with open and curious hearts.

There will be laggards, who refuse to do any work. There will be suffering during the transition, it won't be clean most likely, and hopefully it'll be slow.

Lastly, digital scarcity can only be created once. Do what you will with it when you will. That's on you homie. Not bitcoin.


Over 14 years
Over 5,110 days
Over 122,640 hours
Bitcoin has been public, transparent, open sourced and working EXACTLY AS INTENDED.
If you or yours haven't taken hours to dedicate to understanding it, that's on you.

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I have read your words. I understand your perspective. I don't have your confidence. To me, the crypto experiment is similar in many ways to the on going COVID experience, and why it was roughly used as an example. Patience, prudence, informed decision making, these are the principles of my financial plan. None are common place in today's society as you have alluded to as well above.

Something to consider, your words are being received, and more than likely believed and followed. You are very strong in your beliefs. Do you feel responsible for those you have influenced? If you so, how responsible? Financially? Just curious.

Bitcoin isn't the only commodity though, there is Litecoin and a handful of others that are pure currency/commodity architectures.

I've historically only advised 1-5% portfolio allocation into bitcoin as a low risk investment and even less for people just getting into it for self-education before leaping.

Not once have I claimed to throw EVERYTHING at it.

I feel strongly about it, because it works and the alternatives are absolutely terrifying.

What irks the hell out of me is when I spend the time IRL educating someone only to hear them getting into NFT's dogecoin and other ****coins.

I dont feel as if I've exposed myself to any financial risks for other people's decisions.

Adverse Event said:

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I've historically only advised 1-5% portfolio allocation into bitcoin as a low risk investment and even less for people just getting into it for self-education before leaping.

Not once have I claimed to throw EVERYTHING at it.

I feel strongly about it, because it works and the alternatives are absolutely terrifying.

What irks the hell out of me is when I spend the time IRL educating someone only to hear them getting into NFT's dogecoin and other ****coins.

I dont feel as if I've exposed myself to any financial risks for other people's decisions.

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I will admit to questioning your motivations to crusade so adamantly in favor, especially about something that can have such a dramatic result financially on another person. I believe those who stand at the bully pulpit advocating for something bear a burden of responsibility. (again, not real popular in todays society)

The pressing question for you: Is your advocacy honestly for the good will and financial health of the members of this community to which you are trying to influence as you have no personal stake or anything to gain? If so, good on you, that is truly Red Ass. However, if this is about attention and validation, well. Only you know the true answer to that question, and as you say "That's on you!"

Hard questions from a prudent investor.

My intent by being so vociferous on this website is to show that the historically "safe" forms of wealth are the riskiest they've ever been.

Like others have stated, if you don't have your hands on that wealth, it's an IOU that you or your kids may never ever see.

This is an exit from a failing system, and has been called such by people like Christine LaGarde. They'd rather wall you in to prevent an exit, but with bitcoin that attempt is unfeasible.

I've also advocated that as Aggies, we don't lie cheat or steal NOR TOLERATE THOSE WHO DO.

Yet we sure do a ******* lot of tolerating, as long as there's money to be made, or the politician has the right color next to their name.

It makes me sick.

The only scapegoat I have that seems to tie all the problems together is the monetary policies we have been practicing for at least 50 years. It incentivizes all of the wrong behaviors and encapsulates "the love of money is the root of all evil."

Before I moved away in 2015, I ran the Houston bitcoin meetup for about 2-3 years and regularly posted here and Houston board to help on board people and gain unique insights from all types of folk of different backgrounds.

I originally wanted Aggies, the best of the best, to fair well in the current monetary disruption we are experiencing, but that was foretold by Ron Paul and Austrian Economists for quite awhile.

The ags that have met me through my posting on texags can vouch for my candor and intent.

I care less than ever at being understood due to the attacks on myself and the time spent writing extensively only to be met with thread deletions and banning when disrespect was met with disrespect, folks like Texas rebel have been met with particular ire due to their hostility and lack of pursuit of new data.

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Bitcoin isn't crypto.

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Wut?

Don't worry about it.

You'll understand later.

Cheers to you Sir! Your passion is evident.

Your first problem is, and always will be, that you blanket label anyone not all-in on BTC and morons tied to the current system.

Even in those couple minute Tweet clips posted earlier, the dude implies the same.

It's difficult to get people to your side when you constantly demean them, if if only backhanded.

Your second problem is your spamming of this site. Most everyone hates spammers. Your hammer just happens to be BTC. RWWilson's on Premium is the OL. Silian Rail's and RebelE's is the Catholic Theocracy. Everyone gets tired of a one track mind poster. Especially when every time it's to jump in and say the answer to all of life's problems is BTC and you're an idiot for not thinking the same, Or damn, if only you'd used BTC...etc.


The easiest example is the corner street preacher yelling at everyone. Even those who agree with the theology dislike his method as it is arrogant and abrasive.

But hey, if you don't want to listen to anyone else, continue to beat your head against the TexAgs wall.

the past few years demonstrate that the vast masses of people are both gullible and greedy.

that gives me a pretty high level of confidence that Bitcoin is going higher in the next few years.

7 years ago I'd care, but I've recognized that folks don't want to change their minds, especially when they've made copious wealth following the given rules of their era to great success.

The ones who start to feel the pain or start to see behind the veil of lies of our politics and markets have already taken the first steps.

In my decade plus in the industry, I've decided it takes about 8-10 close contacts that have benefitted, to change someone's mind about these things... whether bitcoin, psychedelics or cannabis.

There's so much false information that has been absorbed as absolute truth that everyone has to go through a painful disassociate with their prior view of reality.

But man, the world makes so much more damn sense than it used to.

I can't tell if I am at an Amway meeting or an Alcoholics Anonymous meeting.

Might be a bit of both.

The founder of AA strangely enough used LSD to overcome his own addiction, but his cohorts forced him not to mention it.

Similarly I think a good dose of psychedelics to get your neurons firing is extremely beneficial to cure Fiat Addiction.

Adverse Event said:

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Definitely Not A Cop said:

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I look forward to the threads by the same people in this thread in 2035 complaining about how it's not fair that most of the bitcoin in the world is being hoarded away by early adopters. Was already starting to see that before the last crash, and it will continue to grow worse after the next Halfing.

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I might start advertising rickety chairs and rope on texags at that point.

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I always wondered what happened to Administrative Errors.

Have made some good money over the past year supplying what I'm calling "stranded gas miners" in both TX and OK.

Can't get out of them what their business model is other than they are fabricating mining set ups that run off stranded nat gas.

I have dealt w/ 3 different companies and I think at least one is just performing the fabrication. The others I'm not sure.

Would like to know the business model and where the demand is coming from. I assume the O&G producers are the ultimate consumer as they can check the ESG box. Am curious if someone like Exxon is self performing or they are leasing the gas to the miners.

Since weed was legalized in OK, have at least one company that plans to power greenhouses in the same manner.

They're likely using flared gas that would otherwise be wasted to power bitcoin miners, thus reducing greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously creating cash flow for themselves and the operators they are leasing from. The game theory of Bitcoin mining incentivizes people to pursue the cheapest or least demanded form of energy possible, which is why it is being used as a demand-response vehicle to stabilize the Texas electric grid. They do this by setting up mining farms alongside wind and solar farms. The Bitcoin data center commits to buy 100% of the power at a discounted rate, so when the grid at large demands that power then it gets routed to higher paying retail and industrial consumers. When the grid does not need the solar/wind, it gets sold to the Bitcoin miners whereas prior to that it simply got wasted. This increases cash flow certainty for green energy capital projects and increases grid stability for ERCOT in the face of increasing variable supply from green energy sources.

Burdizzo said:

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I can't tell if I am at an Amway meeting or an Alcoholics Anonymous meeting.

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I keep waiting for Art Bell, west of the Rockies, to show up. That he is dead is of no consequence.

one safe place said:

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Burdizzo said:

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I can't tell if I am at an Amway meeting or an Alcoholics Anonymous meeting.

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I keep waiting for Art Bell, west of the Rockies, to show up. That he is dead is of no consequence.

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dafuq

Muy said:

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None of it is really currency except for drug dealers, prostitution, and 3rd world unbankables.

In the US it's a collector's item that soon gets traded back to the dollar when someone feels they've made enough.

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And sports/horse betters in government overreach states like Texas.

As someone who lives overseas with bank accounts in multiple countries, and a job in a different country then where I actually live, I have never had any trouble moving money around. Of course, my money is all from legit sources and I pay my taxes. So from that standpoint, for someone like me, specifically in terms of financial transactions I have never seen the potential benefit of the crypto stuff. It is already pretty easy and insured banking system in place today for me to use. Doing much transactions with Bitcoin would be a major pain in the ass.

In terms of a speculative thing, I have found the Bitcoin and crypto craze at large fascinating. It got fueled by a perfect storm of the pandemic and a great bull run and tons of liquidity. The hype and FOMO sucked a bunch of people in around the world trying to get rich, and created a whole new industry of you tubers trying to make money showing updated price charts and price predictions every few hours and so forth (Bitcoin will hit $300K by 2023! Click here for the latest charts to show why I know this!')

But now reality of the macro economy has set in. Once the real world liquidity dried up, the fuel for speculating in crypto did too. That said, there are enough big whales deeply invested in it plus a cult following convinced they will eventually get rich off its price shooting to the moon (or those who feel owning some is a political statement - governments bad! Buy Bitcoin!) that it will presumably be around for quite awhile still.

I'm in it to not be poor, or reliant on a benevolent oligopolistic technocracy.

Guns, gold, & grain.