Bitcoin on the path to irrelevance?

111,577 Views | 1822 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by Yukon Cornelius
Yukon Cornelius
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AG
What you're seeing is establishments realizing they were wrong. Adjusting and pricing out retail. These high echelon groups like micro strategies is using fiat debt to buy btc.

You are getting priced out.
TexasRebel
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AG
This crumpled paper ball on my desk is scarce and unique. Heck I can even transfer it to you remotely without a trusted third party (if you can catch). It's also extremely divisible and can't be given away twice.

Shall we start the bidding?
Kraft Punk
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Yukon Cornelius said:

What you're seeing is establishments realizing they were wrong. Adjusting and pricing out retail. These high echelon groups like micro strategies is using fiat debt to buy btc.

You are getting priced out.


Yea bitcoin totally won't collapse again and lose 75% of current value....


That'd never happen
dreyOO
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drcrinum said:

Ho-hum. Bitcoin set a new all-time high again today, 73.6k. I think I'll continue sleeping on my >50% profit since buying it in January. (I bought Fidelity's FBTC fund.)

I bought coin and have made a killing in my first foray in this space.
TexasRebel
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AG
Did you remember to sell it?

Or are they unrealized gains?
Yukon Cornelius
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AG
Pride is a heck of a thing.
Algorithmic Epiphany
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dreyOO said:

drcrinum said:

Ho-hum. Bitcoin set a new all-time high again today, 73.6k. I think I'll continue sleeping on my >50% profit since buying it in January. (I bought Fidelity's FBTC fund.)

I bought coin and have made a killing in my first foray in this space.

Technically you have paper bitcoin, not bitcoin. I recommend the real thing, but ETFs (short term) aren't a bad way to get exposure to bitcoin's risk profile.
dreyOO
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Sold half. Profit locked in. Gonna hope for a bumpy ride so I can scoop more on the swings.
TexasRebel
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AG
Smart. You got something for nothing.
Algorithmic Epiphany
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Kraft Punk said:

Yukon Cornelius said:

What you're seeing is establishments realizing they were wrong. Adjusting and pricing out retail. These high echelon groups like micro strategies is using fiat debt to buy btc.

You are getting priced out.


Yea bitcoin totally won't collapse again and lose 75% of current value....


That'd never happen

The problem Goin forward, when the world's wealthiest view bitcoin as a "best asset" what are they to sell it for that would tank the price?

They'll borrow off the value like they borrow off the value of their superyachts.
tysker
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AG
RED AG 98 said:

Algorithmic Epiphany said:

tysker said:

RED AG 98 said:

"I choose to remain willfully ignorant and refuse to even attempt to understand at the most basic level why people with billions of dollars are choosing to invest in it."

Likewise, not a sound strategy.
Who are these "people with billions of dollars" that are investing in it?


Technically no one has "billions of dollars." They have assets and business worth billions of dollars.

Those people include:


Bill Ackman (recent)


Michael Saylor (all your models are destroyed)


Tim Draper (famously purchased the Silk Road Btc from us govt)


Elon Musk

Ricardo B Salinas


Larry Fink


Bill Miller


Mike Novogratz

Paul Tudor Jones

Chamath Palihapitiya

Jack Dorsey

Jeff Bezos (allegedly, been hanging with Mikey Saylor last few weeks before he liquidated some stock)

I'm not including all the Bitcoin Billionaires like the Winkelvii and such. I won't include the Saudi and Qatari sovereign funds. But this is a decent list to start.

How many billionaires were you looking for exactly? Because majority of them are now exposed directly or indirectly through ETFs.




Yes, this was exactly my point. People with billions of dollars in cash, investments or equivalents in assets are choosing to put some of that into bitcoin.

The billionaire club is quite small and you've basically listed the categories: states institutions, private corporations, and a coupe thousand individuals worldwide.

Why are they doing it now? Did they magically understand the fundamentals of BTC in the last 6 months?
Or maybe, we in the TradFi space have found a way, through mechanisms like ETFs and other securitize BTC-esque products to extract value from BTC investors and speculators?
Algorithmic Epiphany
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Majority of the individuals i posted have been in for quite some time. Only a few recently.

They're just people.
tysker
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AG
Yukon Cornelius said:

What you're seeing is establishments realizing they were wrong. Adjusting and pricing out retail. These high echelon groups like micro strategies is using fiat debt to buy btc.

You are getting priced out.
You cant get priced out of BTC. Please stop saying such things.
TexasRebel
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AG
Gotta sell it somehow.
dreyOO
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Yep. I'm aware but haven't devoted myself to get invested the right way yet. This was the easy button.

But I'm looking long term diversification so I have to get around to it. And that won't be to try to time it
tysker
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AG
Except for Ackman (who is still questioning it), Jones (whose funds have a ~5% allocation to BTC, IIRC), and Fink (who understandably has financial incentives to talk his book), all of those guys are people who made their money in the Tech space.

I would argue that allocating 5% to BTC (similar to what people allocate to gold) is closer to risk management than 'making an investment.' Granted, even typing that feels like an intellectual cop-out. But still, investing in BTC as an asset =/ adoption.


Also, I forgot that the guys at HedgEye interviewed Saylor way back in 2020. (I'm a HedgeEye fan, full disclosure). I was reminded of their tweet from a couple of years ago about Saylor:

Yukon Cornelius
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AG
Most people are priced out of buying land without debt. It wasn't always like that. Used to sell for pennies. Now big institutions and corporations and partnerships buy the land and the everyday person is 100% priced out.

It's starting with btc. Just is.
TexasRebel
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AG
Except they use the land for the wrong purpose.

No farmland, no food.
Yukon Cornelius
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AG
You can debate that point but doesn't change reality. Assets are increasingly gobbled up by those closest to the money printer. This was your one chance in life to be in front of that line instead of the back. And you stood there bickering about nonsense as the line passed you by.
Algorithmic Epiphany
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tysker said:

Except for Ackman (who is still questioning it), Jones (whose funds have a ~5% allocation to BTC, IIRC), and Fink (who understandably has financial incentives to talk his book), all of those guys are people who made their money in the Tech space.

I would argue that allocating 5% to BTC (similar to what people allocate to gold) is closer to risk management than 'making an investment.' Granted, even typing that feels like an intellectual cop-out. But still, investing in BTC as an asset =/ adoption.


Also, I forgot that the guys at HedgEye interviewed Saylor way back in 2020. (I'm a HedgeEye fan, full disclosure). I was reminded of their tweet from a couple of years ago about Saylor:




What it might feel like is irrelevant. If people are "experimenting with bitcoin" at any % of their portfolio it is actually adoption. They are adopting bitcoin.

They are adopting bitcoin. Stop moving goal posts.
TexasRebel
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AG
Why are you standing in line?
tysker
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AG
Yukon Cornelius said:

Most people are priced out of buying land without debt. It wasn't always like that. Used to sell for pennies. Now big institutions and corporations and partnerships buy the land and the everyday person is 100% priced out.

It's starting with btc. Just is.
But I don't need 'land' any more than I 'need' BTC.

Do you mean big institutions and corporations like BLK are pricing everyone out?


Maybe the goal of Larry Fink and his Tech bro buddy billionaires that AE listed of above is to destroy the US economy

Yukon Cornelius
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AG
Bitcoin has been recognized as an asset. "You will own nothing and be happy" is a real agenda. You're witnessing the socialistic takeover. Print fake money into oblivion and use that money to buy assets. Normal people will be priced out. It's happening with every single asset. Everyone single one. Not sure why people are even debating what is happening right before their eyes.
tysker
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AG
Quote:

They are adopting bitcoin. Stop moving goal posts.
Not through ETFs they are not.
Investing is not adoption, it is speculation.
Just like buying a Soy Bean ETF is not adopting Soy. It's making a bet or hedging risk. Adopting paper BTC is not adopting BTC

NYKNYC. You taught me that!
TexasRebel
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AG
If the price is infinite, you can't sell/buy a bitcoin.

If there are no transactions, there are no blocks to put on the chain.

If there's nothing to be mined, miners repurpose processors.

A 51% attack gets easier and someone steals all of the bitcoin. …but why? They aren't good for anything.
Algorithmic Epiphany
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tysker said:

Quote:

They are adopting bitcoin. Stop moving goal posts.
Not through ETFs they are not.
Investing is not adoption, it is speculation.
Just like buying a Soy Bean ETF is not adopting Soy. It's making a bet or hedging risk. Adopting paper BTC is not adopting BTC

NYKNYC. You taught me that!


Linux was adopted by everyone, not everyone uses linux, yet it's woven into the fabric of everything digital and online at this point.

NYKNYC is accurate.

Whether someone owns bitcoin, or has assets/investments backed by bitcoin, they have adopted bitcoin. Some are still immature and do not own their keys, but it's still been adopted.

I remember when beanie babies and tulips were like this, member?


Maybe provide me with your unique definition of adoption and we can figure out what the problem is here.
Algorithmic Epiphany
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tysker
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AG
Cool story. So tell me, what is the price of one of these Linuxes you speak of?
Has there ever been a competitor to a Linux or has a Linux ever been outmoded?
bmks270
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AG
Crypto currency is infinite.

You can cut and paste its code and viola.

Bitcoin's original primary use case was for illegal black market drugs.

Its present primary use case is for providing entertainment for speculators.
tysker
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AG
To be more robust in my response, I believe adoption should consider hot and cold storage of actual BTC in addition to retail-level transactions for goods and services. I don't believe adoption via BTC staking, BTC farming, or BTC-based, fiat-backed securities should be included in the adoption count, generally.

IMO, the number of wallets addresses (a common metric) doesn't count because we generally can't know the individual UBOs. But I'm open to arguments and challenges as to why my viewpoint and understanding is mistaken.
Algorithmic Epiphany
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tysker said:

To be more robust in my response, I believe adoption should consider hot and cold storage of actual BTC in addition to retail-level transactions for goods and services. I don't believe adoption via BTC staking, BTC farming, or BTC-based, fiat-backed securities should be included in the adoption count, generally.



I think I understand what you're saying. Let me try it again:
Let's say chess is a game.

By watching chess, you're not adopting chess.
By gambling on the outcomes of chess matches you're not adopting chess.
By profiting off chess boards or their components you're not adopting chess.
By learning the rules of chess you're not adopting chess.
By serving drinks to chess players, you're not adopting chess.
The only way I would consider myself as "adopting chess" is by becoming a prodigal chess player.
Everything else is just speculators or gambling.

Is that a fair representation of your position?

My position:
All of those are bitcoin adoption. Bitcoin is standardizing in the hearts and souls of all observers, not just participants. Some people will gain benefits and some will not based on how they act.

But everyday bitcoin is not dead, the adoption is increasing by every metric.
hunter2012
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AG
If you treat it like cash, using both cold and hot wallets makes the most sense. Cold wallet is like a savings and storage as it constantly deflates vs accumulating interest. Hot wallet is for active buying and selling as needed, much like a checking account.
Algorithmic Epiphany
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I just felt like everyone who hadn't heard the song yet needed to give it a go. Just a fun one.
bmks270
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AG
Bitcoin miners own 13% of all Bitcoin in circulation.

Miners own 1.8 million
19.3 million minted to date.
6 million lost
Leaves 13.3 million in circulation and miners own 1.8 of it.

Miners can't sell too many too fast because it would crash the price. They need the price to stay inflated.

The Bitcoin miners already hold more Bitcoin than is left to be minted.

Wouldn't this imply that the halvening won't really impact the circulating supply much when miners have already hoarded 13% of it.

The rate that miners sell will determine the supply and that will be highly correlated to their operating cost which will mostly come down to their cost of electricity and cost of Bitcoin.

It seems a declining cost of Bitcoin could force miners to sell more, increasing supply, dropping price further, forcing more Bitcoin sales by miners, leading to a positive feedback loop of declining Bitcoin price.

The only way this doesn't happen is if demand to own Bitcoin drives prices higher at a faster rate than the miners are forced to sell to cover their operating costs.

When the globe runs out of new adopters, Bitcoin price is going to crater.
TexasRebel
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AG
If your answer to the question, "Why do I want to buy this?" Is, "Because it will be worth more to someone else later." You then have to ask, "Why will someone want to buy this from me later?"

If the only answer to that is, "So they can sell it to somebody else at a higher price." Cut & run.
 
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