There is a great economist saying: in the long term, we are all dead.

The British Pound Sterling has been around for over a mellinia.

Unless the government cancels the dollar In favor of their crypto, I doubt that you or your grandkids will see it go away.

Adverse Event said:

---

"You can't fight the feds"
And
"Private guns protect us from the government"

What value is the 2nd amendment when we are surrounded by ball-gagged cowards?

---

I don't think you are going to joined by enough guns to fight the Feds in a hot war just due to bitcoin being outlawed.

There is a difference between cowardice and pragmatism.

Adverse Event said:

---

Speaking of illogical, if bitcoin incentivizes reliable energy and had been adopted sooner, do you think the ESG narrative that took hold by centralized planners and Central banks would have ever set foot in that country?

If incentivized production of energy took hold, would they have shut down their nuclear plants in favor of unreliable ESG products and carbon credits?

How have Texas and Germany, for instance, differed on their energy policies and relationships with bitcoin?

---

That's a couple of interesting questions that of course we'll never know the answers to. It likely would have had to happen in 1971 when the US officially abandoned the gold standard but even then political pressure would have been immense to transition to fiat. We abandoned gold in part because there's not enough gold on earth to back the volume of dollars it takes to run the global economy and the same would have been said about any asset with a finite supply. Not saying it's right just that it's what they would have argued.

I think I've been pretty consistent here. It's not that I disagree with you about the impact on the world of a non-governmental asset backed currency, I don't. It's that I think it'll never happen or at least not before it all spins apart. The magnitude of this kind of change doesn't happen before people are forced to make a change. The reality is that for all the significant flaws of the current system the overwhelming majority of Americans are fat, dumb and happy with the world as it exists today. And for all of our handwringing about the rest of the world and despite all the blood and treasure we have spent protecting the rest of the world and the current global trade system we are all that matters. We are the world's #1 consumer, the #1 manufacturer, the #1 exporter of energy and the #1 exporter of food and that won't change anytime soon. The game is and will be played by the rules set forth by the US Government or it won't be played at all and fiat dollars are part of that game for them. Control of the currency is a huge part of their basis of power.

Adverse Event said:

---

Pumpkinhead said:

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If the USD ever fails ya'll won't have to worry about your Bitcoin. Ya'll be worrying about how to survive day to day. That Bitcoin balance won't be worth sh*t.

---

I'm under the boards assumption that the US Fed Gov is infinite and omniscient, and deserves our worship. So what worry is there about the USD failing?

---

I'm 100% certain nobody has said the government deserves worship. It is however infinite and omniscient, I'll give you that. It is the most power entity in the history of mankind. That's not really debatable is it?

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

Adverse Event said:

---

El salvador cannot make bitcoin from nothing.

How do you not grasp the difference?

---

Disingenuous sophistry.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair

---

You talking about me? Or Michael Saylor or the various youtubers and twitteratti regurgitating the same arguments over and over again?

I'm transparent in my background. In some ways the better (meaning lasting, adoption, usage) cryptos do the better my business does. But if you cant convince me a better mousetrap has been made, you're not going to convince the smart people in the room.

LOYAL AG said:

---

Adverse Event said:

---

Speaking of illogical, if bitcoin incentivizes reliable energy and had been adopted sooner, do you think the ESG narrative that took hold by centralized planners and Central banks would have ever set foot in that country?

If incentivized production of energy took hold, would they have shut down their nuclear plants in favor of unreliable ESG products and carbon credits?

How have Texas and Germany, for instance, differed on their energy policies and relationships with bitcoin?

---

That's a couple of interesting questions that of course we'll never know the answers to. It likely would have had to happen in 1971 when the US officially abandoned the gold standard but even then political pressure would have been immense to transition to fiat. We abandoned gold in part because there's not enough gold on earth to back the volume of dollars it takes to run the global economy and the same would have been said about any asset with a finite supply. Not saying it's right just that it's what they would have argued.

I think I've been pretty consistent here. It's not that I disagree with you about the impact on the world of a non-governmental asset backed currency, I don't. It's that I think it'll never happen or at least not before it all spins apart. The magnitude of this kind of change doesn't happen before people are forced to make a change. The reality is that for all the significant flaws of the current system the overwhelming majority of Americans are fat, dumb and happy with the world as it exists today Don't talk about BusterAg like that.. And for all of our handwringing about the rest of the world and despite all the blood and treasure we have spent protecting the rest of the world and the current global trade system we are all that matters. We are the world's #1 consumer, the #1 manufacturer, the #1 exporter of energy and the #1 exporter of food and that won't change anytime soon. The game is and will be played by the rules set forth by the US Government or it won't be played at all and fiat dollars are part of that game for them. Control of the currency is a huge part of their basis of power.

---

From the b&i board and Musk on Twitter last night:

exp said:

---

ELON MUSK ON PAYMENTS
Control of the monetary system is more important than controlling speech. We have to be very careful about who controls monetary system.

🧵 👇

— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) December 3, 2022

MUSK: PayPal seems to be moving in the direction of social credit and censorship - that's disturbing,

— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) December 3, 2022

MUSK: The worse the fiat system becomes, the more cryptocurrencies will grow.

— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) December 3, 2022

MUSK: It's a no-brainer for Twitter to have payments – in both fiat and cryptocurrency.

— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) December 3, 2022

---

Adverse Event said:

---

LOYAL AG said:

---

Adverse Event said:

---

Speaking of illogical, if bitcoin incentivizes reliable energy and had been adopted sooner, do you think the ESG narrative that took hold by centralized planners and Central banks would have ever set foot in that country?

If incentivized production of energy took hold, would they have shut down their nuclear plants in favor of unreliable ESG products and carbon credits?

How have Texas and Germany, for instance, differed on their energy policies and relationships with bitcoin?

---

That's a couple of interesting questions that of course we'll never know the answers to. It likely would have had to happen in 1971 when the US officially abandoned the gold standard but even then political pressure would have been immense to transition to fiat. We abandoned gold in part because there's not enough gold on earth to back the volume of dollars it takes to run the global economy and the same would have been said about any asset with a finite supply. Not saying it's right just that it's what they would have argued.

I think I've been pretty consistent here. It's not that I disagree with you about the impact on the world of a non-governmental asset backed currency, I don't. It's that I think it'll never happen or at least not before it all spins apart. The magnitude of this kind of change doesn't happen before people are forced to make a change. The reality is that for all the significant flaws of the current system the overwhelming majority of Americans are fat, dumb and happy with the world as it exists today Don't talk about BusterAg like that.. And for all of our handwringing about the rest of the world and despite all the blood and treasure we have spent protecting the rest of the world and the current global trade system we are all that matters. We are the world's #1 consumer, the #1 manufacturer, the #1 exporter of energy and the #1 exporter of food and that won't change anytime soon. The game is and will be played by the rules set forth by the US Government or it won't be played at all and fiat dollars are part of that game for them. Control of the currency is a huge part of their basis of power.

---

From the b&i board and Musk on Twitter last night:

exp said:

---

ELON MUSK ON PAYMENTS
Control of the monetary system is more important than controlling speech. We have to be very careful about who controls monetary system.

🧵 👇

— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) December 3, 2022

MUSK: PayPal seems to be moving in the direction of social credit and censorship - that's disturbing,

— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) December 3, 2022

MUSK: The worse the fiat system becomes, the more cryptocurrencies will grow.

— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) December 3, 2022

MUSK: It's a no-brainer for Twitter to have payments – in both fiat and cryptocurrency.

— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) December 3, 2022

---

---

You and Musk and everyone else calling out ever growing government control are right and I said as much. As long as we perceive that we're in control of our lives nothing will happen and the current system will continue to grow in power. It just is what it is. Keeping the masses comfy is a key to maintaining power, that's been true for millennia.

Then there's the whole thought process that people don't really want control over their lives. Let's save that for another day. I need to get on the bike for a bit.

My FICO score is 844, but if the government looked at my TexAgs posting it would be 113.

Muy said:

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My FICO score is 844, but if the government looked at my TexAgs posting it would be 113.

---

Amateur. When your social credit score drops below 100, call me.

This is a great recent interview of that FTX idiot where he gets absolutely skewered as he gets hammered with hard questions of what he did. If you are the Feds then you gotta love how that guy keeps giving interviews basically free testimony letting you take notes for your own eventual arrest warrant and interrogation.

so Mind boggling that so many people gave money to and endorsed a company run out of the Bahamas (major red flag right there) and led by such immature and doofus looking nerd living with a gang of other similar island of misfit toys living all together in some condo.

Or he's a patsy.

Just thought I'd add a few visualizations to the thread for news.

*** We warned you about excessive Twitter shots and spamming the thread. Take a few days to absorb the lesson -- Staff ***

Adverse Event said:

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Kvetch said:

---

Adverse Event said:

---

wbt5845 said:

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Bitcoin's highest best use is still for large, illegal transactions.

---

If you say something against the government and they say you can't spend their money anymore, illegal transactions sure do become infinitely more valuable.

---

So keep cash. Also, if the government starts confiscating fiat currency randomly and capriciously, they'll destroy the value of the currency which is not in their interest.

Crypto as a currency has always and will always be a speculative scam. A Bitcoin has no underlying value.

---

Is that where the disconnect is with some folk here? That physical cash is a permanent fixture that will never end?

That's the whole fkn point of the CBDC to remove cash from the system. To go FULL ON CCP SOCIAL CREDIT.

Like what mental barrier is this concept not getting through?


The magnitude of what is being proposed is just not getting through to you guys.


Imagine yourself, or your parents or grandparents toiling night and day to save a significant amount of wealth for retirement or for the future of their children. Now imagine that a random doxxed post on texags or Twitter or a verbal quip to a neighbor results in being reported to the CBDC Office.

After review, they've decided that you or your parents/gpatents are persona non grata. They remove your ability to access any of that stored value, they remove your ability to buy anything. If it's uncovered that you found a friendly neighbor or family member to subvert their policy, now the entire family and close contacts get removal of ability to buy anything.

THINK OF THE COMPLIANCE.

This has been happening for years in China already. I've tried to direct attention to the topic to educate and give tools for action for nearly a decade on this site.

Rub two brain cells together and get your **** together.

---

Crypto currency looks like a huge pyramid scheme.

" If you are the Feds then you gotta love how that guy keeps giving interviews basically free testimony letting you take notes for your own eventual arrest warrant and interrogation."

He's talking because he knows absolutely nothing will happen to him.

He paid the Dems $40mm to not get prosecuted for stealing $10bn. Best ROI ever.

Seamaster said:

---

" If you are the Feds then you gotta love how that guy keeps giving interviews basically free testimony letting you take notes for your own eventual arrest warrant and interrogation."

He's talking because he knows absolutely nothing will happen to him.

He paid the Dems $40mm to not get prosecuted for stealing $10bn. Best ROI ever.

---

It seems likely there will be eventual criminal charges filed. As long as he is so freely putting himself out there for Q&A sessions and given that you know exactly where he is, I'd let him keep doing that for awhile basically helping put together the indictment. And even putting that aside, there are going to be numerous lawsuits in civil court and this guy is just flapping his mouth doing a public relations tour that is all material for the lawyers who will eventually be coming after him. I read somewhere that his lawyers have left him, which if true isn't surprising.

And back to the politics, Enron's political donations and connections didn't protect those guys from getting charged. Elizabeth Holmes' political connections didn't protect her from getting charged, and so forth. If that SBF character naively thinks some politicians are going to cover his ass when he has become more a liability than an asset to them...well, he probably is going to get a rude awakening.

My guess is what will happen is they will turn the bad actors here against each other. First one who strikes an agreement with the feds to testify against the other ones gets first prize. Other folks around this SBF joker will turn on him to save their own skin.

If bitcoin could generate value and transactions like it does Texags posts, it would be golden.

Bitcoin could plunge 70% to $5,000, Standard Chartered predicts, in possible 2023 'surprise'

PUBLISHED MON, DEC 5 2022 CNBC.com

Bitcoin could drop to $5,000 next year in a market surprise that investors are under-pricing, according to Standard Chartered, marking a 70% plunge from the current level of around $17,000.
In a note entitled "The financial-market surprises of 2023," Standard Chartered outlined a number of possible scenarios that "we feel are under-priced by the markets."

Standard Chartered said rising yields along with a plunge in technology stocks will lead to an acceleration of the bitcoin sell-off and cause further bankruptcies and collapses in the crypto world.

Standard Chartered predicts that bitcoin could fall to $5,000 in 2023 as part of their research on potential market surprises next year.

Bitcoin could drop to $5,000 next year in a market surprise that investors are under-pricing, according to Standard Chartered. If that level is reached, it would mark a roughly 70% plunge from Monday's price of just over $17,000 for one bitcoin.

In a note entitled "The financial-market surprises of 2023," Standard Chartered outlined a number of possible scenarios that "we feel are under-priced by the markets."

"Yields plunge along with technology shares, and while the Bitcoin sell-off decelerates, the damage has been done. More and more crypto firms and exchanges find themselves with insufficient liquidity, leading to further bankruptcies and a collapse in investor confidence in digital assets," Eric Robertsen, global head of research at Standard Chartered Bank, said in the note Sunday. Robertsen said the somewhat extreme scenarios "have a non-zero probability of occurring in the year ahead, and fall materially outside of the market consensus or our own baseline views."

Bitcoin has already fallen more than 60% this year after a string of high-profile collapses of projects and companies plagued the industry. The latest and biggest casualty is cryptocurrency exchange FTX which has filed for bankruptcy. Contagion from the fallout of FTX continues to spread through the market.
The drop in bitcoin's price will also coincide with a rally in gold, Robertsen said, arguing the yellow metal could potentially rally 30% to $2,250 per ounce "as cryptocurrencies fall further and more crypto firms succumb to liquidity squeezes and investor withdrawals."

Robertsen says gold could re-establish itself as a safe haven, with investors flocking to the commodity for stability in times of market volatility.

"The 2023 resurgence in gold [also] comes as equities resume their bear market and the correlation between equity and bond prices shifts back to negative," he added.

Standard Chartered's view is not the only bearish outlook on bitcoin. Veteran investor Mark Mobius told CNBC last week that he sees bitcoin falling to $10,000 in 2023 due to rising interest rates and tighter monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Pumpkinhead said:

---

Seamaster said:

---

" If you are the Feds then you gotta love how that guy keeps giving interviews basically free testimony letting you take notes for your own eventual arrest warrant and interrogation."

He's talking because he knows absolutely nothing will happen to him.

He paid the Dems $40mm to not get prosecuted for stealing $10bn. Best ROI ever.

---

It seems likely there will be eventual criminal charges filed. As long as he is so freely putting himself out there for Q&A sessions and given that you know exactly where he is, I'd let him keep doing that for awhile basically helping put together the indictment. And even putting that aside, there are going to be numerous lawsuits in civil court and this guy is just flapping his mouth doing a public relations tour that is all material for the lawyers who will eventually be coming after him. I read somewhere that his lawyers have left him, which if true isn't surprising.

And back to the politics, Enron's political donations and connections didn't protect those guys from getting charged. Elizabeth Holmes' political connections didn't protect her from getting charged, and so forth. If that SBF character naively thinks some politicians are going to cover his ass when he has become more a liability than an asset to them...well, he probably is going to get a rude awakening.

My guess is what will happen is they will turn the bad actors here against each other. First one who strikes an agreement with the feds to testify against the other ones gets first prize. Other folks around this SPF joker will turn on him to save their own skin.

---

supposedly his "girlfriend" Ellison

who was the CEO of Alameda Research was spotted this morning in NYC at a Starbucks with some attorneys

Pumpkinhead said:

---

Seamaster said:

---

" If you are the Feds then you gotta love how that guy keeps giving interviews basically free testimony letting you take notes for your own eventual arrest warrant and interrogation."

He's talking because he knows absolutely nothing will happen to him.

He paid the Dems $40mm to not get prosecuted for stealing $10bn. Best ROI ever.

---

It seems likely there will be eventual criminal charges filed. As long as he is so freely putting himself out there for Q&A sessions and given that you know exactly where he is, I'd let him keep doing that for awhile basically helping put together the indictment. And even putting that aside, there are going to be numerous lawsuits in civil court and this guy is just flapping his mouth doing a public relations tour that is all material for the lawyers who will eventually be coming after him. I read somewhere that his lawyers have left him, which if true isn't surprising.

And back to the politics, Enron's political donations and connections didn't protect those guys from getting charged. Elizabeth Holmes' political connections didn't protect her from getting charged, and so forth. If that SBF character naively thinks some politicians are going to cover his ass when he has become more a liability than an asset to them...well, he probably is going to get a rude awakening.

My guess is what will happen is they will turn the bad actors here against each other. First one who strikes an agreement with the feds to testify against the other ones gets first prize. Other folks around this SBF joker will turn on him to save their own skin.

---

Tom White, Lou Pai and Rebecca Mark say hi.

History doesn't repeat, but it can often rhyme. #Bitcoin is 65% into its 3rd halving epoch, and this current drawdown looks similar to those seen in prior cycles. pic.twitter.com/QNcujEGdUh

— Jack Neureuter (@j_neureuter) December 5, 2022

Bitwhat?

MR Gadsden said:

---

History doesn't repeat, but it can often rhyme. #Bitcoin is 65% into its 3rd halving epoch, and this current drawdown looks similar to those seen in prior cycles. pic.twitter.com/QNcujEGdUh

— Jack Neureuter (@j_neureuter) December 5, 2022

---

The question that remains is where does BTC fit as an investment in a world where money is no longer practically free? It's cheap to chase speculative plays at 2% cost of capital but it's a whole lot harder at 7%. At current rates capital cost 4x what it did just two years ago and that's not changing anytime soon. It remains to be seen if this digital gold rush has legs in a world of relatively expensive money. Guess we'll know soon enough.

LOYAL AG said:

---

MR Gadsden said:

---

History doesn't repeat, but it can often rhyme. #Bitcoin is 65% into its 3rd halving epoch, and this current drawdown looks similar to those seen in prior cycles. pic.twitter.com/QNcujEGdUh

— Jack Neureuter (@j_neureuter) December 5, 2022

---

The question that remains is where does BTC fit as an investment in a world where money is no longer practically free? It's cheap to chase speculative plays at 2% cost of capital but it's a whole lot harder at 7%. At current rates capital cost 4x what it did just two years ago and that's not changing anytime soon. It remains to be seen if this digital gold rush has legs in a world of relatively expensive money. Guess we'll know soon enough.

---

That is what I always ask myself whenever Bitcoiners are showing charts and graphs that are solely Bitcoin centric and don't seem to be considering the macro-economic conditions. Is Bitcoin an insulated artificially created economic world where the normal rules don't apply?

Bitcoin's prices benefited for a long time from cheap easy money. Now liquidity has dried up and it is a lot harder to borrow, while other places are looking more attractive (and safer) to deposit.

You asked the right question in how well the 'digital gold rush' is going to perform when money has gotten a lot more expensive to play around with.

1) What the hell do "halving" mean?

2) I wonder what that graph looks like with the Y-axis being linear rather than logarithmic.

https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769

Quote:

---

KEY TAKEAWAYS
1. A Bitcoin halving event occurs when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half.

2.Halvings reduce the rate at which new coins are created and thus lower the available amount of new supply, even as demand increases.

3. Previous halvings have correlated with intense boom and bust cycles that have ended with higher prices than before the event.

4. Bitcoin last halved on May 11, 2020, resulting in a block reward of 6.25 BTC.

5. The final halving will be in 2140 when the number of bitcoins in existence will reach the maximum

---

CDUB98 said:

---

1) What the hell do "halving" mean?

2) I wonder what that graph looks like with the Y-axis being linear rather than logarithmic.

---

1)There are others who could explain it better but in layman's terms the halving represents a point in time where it requires twice as much computing power to mine a bitcoin. In other words if computing power remained constant, you would mine half of what you were before.

2) if the graph were on a linear scale everything before 2017 or so would look flat very close to the X axis with a very large spike towards the last couple of years. Bitcoins value has increased exponentially over a relatively short period of time so to accurately represent the %increase it is best to look at it on a logarithmic scale.

also from Pepper Brooks article (https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769)

Quote:

---

This is Bitcoin's way of enforcing synthetic price inflation until all bitcoins are released.

---

Halving is BTC's process to restrict supply. So if BTC's price is due to changes in supply and demand (I dont think it does) halving results in dead weight loss

I'm still waiting for an answer:

What happens when all 21,000,000 are lost?

TexasRebel said:

---

I'm still waiting for an answer:

What happens when all 21,000,000 are lost?

---

Maybe you should provide a realistic scenario in which this could happen.

TexasRebel said:

---

I'm still waiting for an answer:

What happens when all 21,000,000 are lost?

---

I'm as big of a Bitcoin doubter as there is on here but I don't get this question. Short of a global power outage I don't think that's even a practical concern. What's your point?

The fatal flaw in Bitcoin as a reserve is the same as it is for gold. We left the gold standard because at $35/ounce there's not enough gold on earth to back the volume of dollars that need to exist to provide sufficient liquidity for the global economy. That was 51 years ago. Today it would be more absurd. IMO the money supply should expand and contract with either population changes or GDP changes. A finite money supply creates price volatility based solely on scarcity of currency which seems counterproductive.

This is not an argument for fiat as it exists today. We're very near global peak population at which point the rest of the century will see population decline and we all know we won't see a reduction in the money supply. What we have is a mess. I'm simply saying a finite money supply is not the right answer either.

As keys are lost and become unrecoverable there will be fewer and fewer accessible bitcoin.

It'd be like if we stopped minting dollar bills in 1836 and they were left to survive normal wear and tear for nearly 200 years.

Once 21,000,000 are reached, lost keys will happen until all 21,000,000 are unrecoverable.

Heck. 1,000,000 of those are in Nakamoto's wallet and have sat dormant since the beginning.

There's another few thousand lost on a usb drive in a dump in the UK. If this was gold finding it in the dump would be enough. In this case, even if the drive is located it has to function.

The scenario?
Uncle Rock is saving bitcoin, but he doesn't trust anyone else so his keys are hidden or otherwise encrypted. Uncle Rock got hit by the Excel bus and died. Nobody knows Rocks keys.

LOYAL AG said:

---

TexasRebel said:

---

I'm still waiting for an answer:

What happens when all 21,000,000 are lost?

---

I'm as big of a Bitcoin doubter as there is on here but I don't get this question. Short of a global power outage I don't think that's even a practical concern. What's your point?

---

I think I've read that as many as 90% of BTC wallets are dormant (no outgoing activity for 5+ years and have a non-zero balance). But those could include lost coins, stolen coins, coins used as long-term collateral, or even coins confiscated by governments. It's possible coins that are being used as collateral are also 'lost' but it wouldn't be known until the payment is due. We know the total supply outstanding, but we don't really know the active or functional supply.