Bitcoin on the path to irrelevance?

111,560 Views | 1822 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by Yukon Cornelius
TexasRebel
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To paraphrase Warren Buffet. If I were to buy 21,000,000 bitcoin from you right now for $25, it would do nothing for me, and I'd have to somehow convince you to buy it back for $25 just to break even.

I'd agree with ya'll that bitcoin has value, but then we'd all be wrong.
nai06
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Diet Cokehead said:

This thread is awesome.

I don't know whether to laugh at or feel sorry for TexasRebal, nai06, and bmks. They are so entrenched in being right that they will cost their families millions or more in lost wealth. It's so clear to any of us that have taken the time to understand bitcoin and its future, but I guess you can't force people to understand when they are hellbent against doing so.

Oh well, not everybody can amass generational wealth.
Millions you say?


Well let me just forgo the second house I'm about to buy and dump it all into bitcoin instead!


I'm sure bitcoin functions just fine as an investment product. There are plenty around and I have no problem investing in some higher risk ones as a small percentage of my portfolio. I don't however see bitcoin becoming an actual everyday use currency for the numerous reasons laid out in this thread.


The big bitcoin fanboys (some in this thread) are trying really hard to convince everyone how great an revolutionary it is. It reeks of the same hype around NFTs and numerous other failed coins. I really don't like the volatility so I am fine waiting and investing in more traditional products for now.
p-townag
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nai06 said:

Diet Cokehead said:

This thread is awesome.

I don't know whether to laugh at or feel sorry for TexasRebal, nai06, and bmks. They are so entrenched in being right that they will cost their families millions or more in lost wealth. It's so clear to any of us that have taken the time to understand bitcoin and its future, but I guess you can't force people to understand when they are hellbent against doing so.

Oh well, not everybody can amass generational wealth.
Millions you say?


Well let me just forgo the second house I'm about to buy and dump it all into bitcoin instead!


I'm sure bitcoin functions just fine as an investment product. There are plenty around and I have no problem investing in some higher risk ones as a small percentage of my portfolio. I don't however see bitcoin becoming an actual everyday use currency for the numerous reasons laid out in this thread.


The big bitcoin fanboys (some in this thread) are trying really hard to convince everyone how great an revolutionary it is. It reeks of the same hype around NFTs and numerous other failed coins. I really don't like the volatility so I am fine waiting and investing in more traditional products for now.

I think you're still missing the key thing that flipped the switch for all of us bitcoiners. We don't care if it ever becomes an everyday use currency, as you say. It is an asset and store of value and is proving that every single day. That is the only revolutionary thing that matters. I think people are looking for some weird/far out there idea or use case. It's very simple. It's a way to hold value over time and transfer its value over time and space. Don't make it too complicated. The beauty is its simplicity.
Yukon Cornelius
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Kind of seems like you're using this thread to cope
TexasRebel
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But why would someone want to buy one from you?

To sell it for more.

That's it.

That's worthless virtual junk.
Yukon Cornelius
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One man's junk another man's treasure I suppose
p-townag
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Because it increased in value and he knows it will continue to increase in value.

Why is PayPal valuable? Or MasterCard? Because they lubricated the wheels of financial transactions. Bitcoin does the same thing AND you don't have to ask permission of MasterCard AND you don't have to trust a company server AND it has final settlement in 30 minutes AND it's supply is limited so its value will go up.

Really think hard on this point and the point above. I'm not making up some fantasy benefit. Larry Fink thinks it has a valuable use. Edward Snowden does as well. Elon Musk does as well. Michael Saylor does as well. Do you think they're misguided? Stupid? Just buying into hype without substance? Seriously think about that. Could it be, as crazy as it sounds, that there is a very good use case that you just aren't figuring out, yet?

I've gone through the exact same skepticism you have. I just got interested in learning about it and was humble enough to realize that I didn't know why it was created and what use it had. Once I put in the effort to learn it, my eyes were opened dramatically.
TexasRebel
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Why must it continue to increase in value? <crickets>

You're stuck playing checkers on a chessboard.

Companies that facilitate transactions don't do it for free, which is already a problem. The cost just gets hidden in the item price; by law. There isn't a business in existence that wouldn't prefer to ditch the transaction fees. Why would anyone want to make them permanent?
Aggies1322
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p-townag said:

Because it increased in value and he knows it will continue to increase in value.

Why is PayPal valuable? Or MasterCard? Because they lubricated the wheels of financial transactions. Bitcoin does the same thing AND you don't have to ask permission of MasterCard AND you don't have to trust a company server AND it has final settlement in 30 minutes AND it's supply is limited so its value will go up.

Really think hard on this point and the point above. I'm not making up some fantasy benefit. Larry Fink thinks it has a valuable use. Edward Snowden does as well. Elon Musk does as well. Michael Saylor does as well. Do you think they're misguided? Stupid? Just buying into hype without substance? Seriously think about that. Could it be, as crazy as it sounds, that there is a very good use case that you just aren't figuring out, yet?

I've gone through the exact same skepticism you have. I just got interested in learning about it and was humble enough to realize that I didn't know why it was created and what use it had. Once I put in the effort to learn it, my eyes were opened dramatically.

Are you asserting that it will perpetually increase in value?
p-townag
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TexasRebel said:

Why must it continue to increase in value? <crickets>

You're stuck playing checkers on a chessboard.

Companies that facilitate transactions don't do it for free, which is already a problem. The cost just gets hidden in the item price; by law. There isn't a business in existence that wouldn't prefer to ditch the transaction fees. Why would anyone want to make them permanent?

It must increase in value because it has a use, which creates demand. Price is set by supply and demand. The supply is absolutely fixed, yet as more and more people adopt it and demand it, the price will go up. Simple economics.

Because when something has value, people are willing to pay for it. So people will continue to pay the transaction fees because it's worth it.
p-townag
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Aggies1322 said:

p-townag said:

Because it increased in value and he knows it will continue to increase in value.

Why is PayPal valuable? Or MasterCard? Because they lubricated the wheels of financial transactions. Bitcoin does the same thing AND you don't have to ask permission of MasterCard AND you don't have to trust a company server AND it has final settlement in 30 minutes AND it's supply is limited so its value will go up.

Really think hard on this point and the point above. I'm not making up some fantasy benefit. Larry Fink thinks it has a valuable use. Edward Snowden does as well. Elon Musk does as well. Michael Saylor does as well. Do you think they're misguided? Stupid? Just buying into hype without substance? Seriously think about that. Could it be, as crazy as it sounds, that there is a very good use case that you just aren't figuring out, yet?

I've gone through the exact same skepticism you have. I just got interested in learning about it and was humble enough to realize that I didn't know why it was created and what use it had. Once I put in the effort to learn it, my eyes were opened dramatically.

Are you asserting that it will perpetually increase in value?

Yes. I'm most definitely asserting that.
p-townag
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Until you skeptics (and I admire skeptics) sit down and really ponder these things, you're going to continue to be confused and frustrated as this thing continues to climb ever higher and higher. And that's fine. Just know it doesn't have to be that way.
Aggies1322
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p-townag said:

TexasRebel said:

Why must it continue to increase in value? <crickets>

You're stuck playing checkers on a chessboard.

Companies that facilitate transactions don't do it for free, which is already a problem. The cost just gets hidden in the item price; by law. There isn't a business in existence that wouldn't prefer to ditch the transaction fees. Why would anyone want to make them permanent?

It must increase in value because it has a use, which creates demand. Price is set by supply and demand. The supply is absolutely fixed, yet as more and more people adopt it and demand it, the price will go up. Simple economics.

Because when something has value, people are willing to pay for it. So people will continue to pay the transaction fees because it's worth it.

What is the use though? Why will demand perpetually increase? I am genuinely curious. I can't see myself ever saying "man I really need bitcoin.. it's paramount that I buy bitcoin".
La Bamba
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Some of you guys will be staring at BTC at $500,000 18 months from now still clinging to your "it doesn't have instrinsic value" mantra.

The value of BTC is a hedge against unsound money. Ignore that at your own risk. It's become wildly more institutionalized and mainstream in the past 4 months. Another halving is coming. Again, ignore all that at your own risk.
Aggies1322
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La Bamba said:

Some of you guys will be staring at BTC at $500,000 18 months from now still clinging to your "it doesn't have instrinsic value" mantra.

The value of BTC is a hedge against unsound money. Ignore that at your own risk. It's become wildly more institutionalized and mainstream in the past 4 months. Another halving is coming. Again, ignore all that at your own risk.

It's a hedge against unsound money - but its value is measured by that same unsound money? How is that a hedge?
TexasRebel
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p-townag said:

TexasRebel said:

Why must it continue to increase in value? <crickets>

You're stuck playing checkers on a chessboard.

Companies that facilitate transactions don't do it for free, which is already a problem. The cost just gets hidden in the item price; by law. There isn't a business in existence that wouldn't prefer to ditch the transaction fees. Why would anyone want to make them permanent?

It must increase in value because it has a use, which creates demand. Price is set by supply and demand. The supply is absolutely fixed, yet as more and more people adopt it and demand it, the price will go up. Simple economics.

Because when something has value, people are willing to pay for it. So people will continue to pay the transaction fees because it's worth it.


Bitcoin has value because people want it.
People want bitcoin because it's valuable.

You're begging the question.
Aggies1322
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It's an entirely circular argument.. it's odd.
Yukon Cornelius
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Why is gold valuable?
p-townag
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Aggies1322 said:

p-townag said:

TexasRebel said:

Why must it continue to increase in value? <crickets>

You're stuck playing checkers on a chessboard.

Companies that facilitate transactions don't do it for free, which is already a problem. The cost just gets hidden in the item price; by law. There isn't a business in existence that wouldn't prefer to ditch the transaction fees. Why would anyone want to make them permanent?

It must increase in value because it has a use, which creates demand. Price is set by supply and demand. The supply is absolutely fixed, yet as more and more people adopt it and demand it, the price will go up. Simple economics.

Because when something has value, people are willing to pay for it. So people will continue to pay the transaction fees because it's worth it.

What is the use though? Why will demand perpetually increase? I am genuinely curious. I can't see myself ever saying "man I really need bitcoin.. it's paramount that I buy bitcoin".

I said it a few posts ago.

Its use is as a store of value transferable across space and time without having to ask permission from a company or government.

If I'm poor, trying to save dollars is a fools errand. The value of those dollars will continue to go down by at least 7% per year. I need something that will keep its value and not be debased by the government inflating it.

If I'm fleeing a war torn country, I need to be able to carry my wealth into the place I'm fleeing to. If I try to carry gold bars or cash, I can't carry much and it will likely get stolen or confiscated. But I can carry my 12 word seed phrase in my head and immediately claim my bitcoin once I get to safety.

If I live in Zimbabwe, and I don't have access to banks, I also need something of value I can save and store for my family and my future. If I can get a cell phone, I can get bitcoin.

If I'm rich, I need something that can preserve my wealth and easily transfer (much easier than transferring real estate or buildings or gold bars or paintings) to anyone all over the world in 30 minutes. Bitcoin gives you that.

I could go on and on.
ac04
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Quote:

It's a hedge against unsound money - but its value is measured by that same unsound money? How is that a hedge?
its value can be measured against anything you want. USD is just the most convenient for now.
Aggies1322
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ac04 said:

its value can be measured against anything you want. USD is just the most convenient for now.

Change it to the Euro, or peso, or yen. All of those are considered unsound money - so it's always going to be measured against one unsound currency or another. How is it hedging against that?
p-townag
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TexasRebel said:

p-townag said:

TexasRebel said:

Why must it continue to increase in value? <crickets>

You're stuck playing checkers on a chessboard.

Companies that facilitate transactions don't do it for free, which is already a problem. The cost just gets hidden in the item price; by law. There isn't a business in existence that wouldn't prefer to ditch the transaction fees. Why would anyone want to make them permanent?

It must increase in value because it has a use, which creates demand. Price is set by supply and demand. The supply is absolutely fixed, yet as more and more people adopt it and demand it, the price will go up. Simple economics.

Because when something has value, people are willing to pay for it. So people will continue to pay the transaction fees because it's worth it.


Bitcoin has value because people want it.
People want bitcoin because it's valuable.

You're begging the question.

I'm giving you the answer but you aren't listening.

Bitcoin's value, use, etc is as follows:
It is a completely secure, absolutely scarce, easily transferable store of value.

Secure: there is nothing on the planet as secure as bitcoin

Absolutely scarce: there will only be 21 million coins ever. Period.

I can send it to anyone with final settlement in 30 minutes. Anyone anywhere in the world. As much monetary value as I want. And NOBODY can stop me. And I don't have to rely on ANYONE.

If you don't understand that, the problem is with you understanding and not with me explaining. If you don't understand a concept and cop out by calling that concept "circular," that doesn't make you smart.
La Bamba
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Aggies1322 said:

La Bamba said:

Some of you guys will be staring at BTC at $500,000 18 months from now still clinging to your "it doesn't have instrinsic value" mantra.

The value of BTC is a hedge against unsound money. Ignore that at your own risk. It's become wildly more institutionalized and mainstream in the past 4 months. Another halving is coming. Again, ignore all that at your own risk.

It's a hedge against unsound money - but its value is measured by that same unsound money? How is that a hedge?

The chosen denominator means nothing. You can look up BTC/whatever currency you want. The charts are even more pronounced when it isn't USD. Gold is measured in dollar terms too, and in EUR terms and if you want Turkish Lira terms.

The point is that government issued money will always be devalued. Has happened since the Roman Empire.

There's value in things that humans consider a store of value due to their finite-ness. Historically has been Gold. BTC is digital gold with the same finite-ness, but better ability to transport and store.
ac04
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Aggies1322 said:

ac04 said:

its value can be measured against anything you want. USD is just the most convenient for now.

Change it to the Euro, or peso, or yen. All of those are considered unsound money - so it's always going to be measured against one unsound currency or another. How is it hedging against that?
it is steadily increasing your purchasing power by protecting it from debasement. if you held the fiat instead, your purchasing power is guaranteed to decrease. how is that not a hedge?
TexasRebel
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You're fleeing a war torn country and get all the bitcoin you can.

What do you do with it when you get to a refuge without a computer AND internet access?
p-townag
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You keep it in your brain until you get to an internet connection. It will continue to be there on the network for you until you can claim it, and will have increased in value since then.
TexasRebel
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Yukon Cornelius said:

Why is gold valuable?


Doesn't corrode
Conducive
Extremely malleable
Impossible to counterfeit

TLDR: it's useful.
LMCane
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TexasRebel said:

To paraphrase Warren Buffet. If I were to buy 21,000,000 bitcoin from you right now for $25, it would do nothing for me, and I'd have to somehow convince you to buy it back for $25 just to break even.

I'd agree with ya'll that bitcoin has value, but then we'd all be wrong.

that is a heck of a lot of words to say absolutely nothing.

and if I bought $21 million of NVIDIA stock, I would have to convince someone else to buy it from me at a higher price..

what's your point?
TexasRebel
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p-townag said:


Its use is as a store of value transferable across space and time without having to ask permission from a company or government.


Time travel is a neat trick.
Aggies1322
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ac04 said:

Aggies1322 said:

ac04 said:

its value can be measured against anything you want. USD is just the most convenient for now.

Change it to the Euro, or peso, or yen. All of those are considered unsound money - so it's always going to be measured against one unsound currency or another. How is it hedging against that?
it is steadily increasing your purchasing power by protecting it from debasement. if you held the fiat instead, your purchasing power is guaranteed to decrease. how is that not a hedge?

Because it operates more like an investment vehicle with no underlying assets. If I bought a dollar in bitcoin today, there is nothing assuring me that it won't be worth 10 cents tomorrow.. whereas I can relatively accurately track the rate of inflation against that dollar.
La Bamba
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TexasRebel said:

Yukon Cornelius said:

Why is gold valuable?


Doesn't corrode
Conducive
Extremely malleable
Impossible to counterfeit

TLDR: it's useful.

If usefulness would be the sole variable of value, then an oz of copper (base material for electronics/ semiconductors) would be worth more than an oz of gold.

Why don't you share with the class how much an oz of copper is worth versus an oz of gold?
Aggies1322
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LMCane said:

TexasRebel said:

To paraphrase Warren Buffet. If I were to buy 21,000,000 bitcoin from you right now for $25, it would do nothing for me, and I'd have to somehow convince you to buy it back for $25 just to break even.

I'd agree with ya'll that bitcoin has value, but then we'd all be wrong.

that is a heck of a lot of words to say absolutely nothing.

and if I bought $21 million of NVIDIA stock, I would have to convince someone else to buy it from me at a higher price..

what's your point?

NVIDIA stock has income producing assets backing the share value (to some extent). That is kinda the point..
TexasRebel
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LMCane said:


and if I bought $21 million of NVIDIA stock, I would have to convince someone else to buy it from me at a higher price..


No you don't. You pull dividends from the sales of tangible items while you hold it, then even selling at $21MM you're ahead.
p-townag
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TexasRebel said:

p-townag said:


Its use is as a store of value transferable across space and time without having to ask permission from a company or government.


Time travel is a neat trick.

You're exactly right, it is. If I save $10 over 100 years, inflation will decrease the value of that $10 to less than $1. So the value of your money wasn't able to be transferred across the time frame of 100 years.

If I buy 0.1 bitcoin for $670 today and save it over 100 years, its value will be AT LEAST $670 in 100 years and likely much much more. So I was able to transfer the value of my savings over time without debasement.
TexasRebel
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That's where scarcity comes in.

How much easier is it to come by copper than gold?

(It's also worth investing in copper)
 
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