Rolling blackouts in Texas

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ttu_85
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In reply to YouBet • 8:59a, 2/16/21
YouBet said:
ttu_85 said:
missyaggie said:
We just moved our parents into assisted living and were staying at their house cleaning and organizing. We headed back to Tennessee Saturday afternoon to beat the weather. We left heat on, cabinets with pipes open, and outside spigots wrapped.

If we had known that blackouts were planned, we would have shut off water completely and turned off water heater. No telling what damage might occur now, and we're too far away to do anything about it.

Yep. Water damage claims are going to be massive. No telling how many houses have frozen in the wall pipes.

I'd get my water off at the road or source if power is erratic then drip it out till water pressure is 0.

I know, I know not everyone can do that. Most can. Its the smart play.
I might be doing this at some point today. Our hot water is all dead because I didn't drip that side. Didn't think about it.
Good luck man. In many cases the water damage occurs when things thaw.

Another point: In two story homes turn those upstair valves all the way open when your turn your water off at the source. Else pressure suspends water in the lines and they will freeze inside your walls. Turn all your valves on. Drain everything. In extreme cases even your toilets.

When you turn your water back on when things thaw do so slowly and get eyeballs on bathroom walls and walls opposite your hose bibs or anywhere you know waterlines exist. If you see water turn it off and get help.

Good luck all !!
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The Collective
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In reply to Earl_Rudder • 9:05a, 2/16/21
AG
Earl_Rudder said:
I Have Spoken said:
Politically, an event like this could flip the state blue. It would not be better with the other guys, but it is an easy message & people will be pissed for a long time.
Which is totally asinine.

Instead of a once in 30 years event, you can have rolling blackouts every year like in California!

Give it another 20 years and we can be like parts of Mexico where the government telsl you that the gas will be on for these 2 hours twice a week for your use, and most of the time it doesn't even turn on.

Brilliant.


I don't disagree with you at all - just prepared for the reality.
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MisterScott
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In reply to buffalo chip • 9:06a, 2/16/21
AG
buffalo chip said:
gonemaroon said:
There are no sellers of gas / gas is going to trade in excess of $500 might trade north of $1000. This is the craziest thing ever it make take until the weekend when it warms up to get things under control.
I have truly appreciated your posts during this episode. Let me give you some context from a natural gas producer.

My natural gas wells in West Texas are processed in a cryogenic processing plant to remove natural gas liquids before being placed in the WAHA pipeline system for delivery to the market. The near zero weather conditions were anticipated to negatively impact processing plant operations (and almost everything else in West Texas), so natural gas producers on that system were requested to shut in their natural gas production on Friday.

One small story, but it is probably repeated all across the spectrum of O&G producers in Texas...
This is very sad. We operate oil and gas assets in the harshest environments known to humankind and a cryo-plant, designed to cool and compress gas cannot operate when it is cold. The irony here is ironical.
Class of 1996
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MisterScott
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9:14a, 2/16/21
AG
We have another Aggie family with us right now. Their house in Southlake is totally w/o power. Right smack dab in the middle of Southlake and the entire neighborhood is not even rolling. I had a critical circuit generator in Colorado and it saved my bacon multiple times including for three days one time. It was on the list for the house here. But didn't get to it in time. Question is to do propane or nat gas.....
Class of 1996
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Zobel
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In reply to MisterScott • 9:15a, 2/16/21
AG
There's some irony in all of us (me included) being really mad at the plants for not being prepared for this weather, but then our pants are down at our own homes.
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birdman
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In reply to Zobel • 9:19a, 2/16/21
Zobel said:
There's some irony in all of us (me included) being really mad at the plants for not being prepared for this weather, but then our pants are down at our own homes.
The plants are paid to deliver power. And they completely failed.

You are paid to do accounting, treat patients or fix cars. Being prepared at your own home is good idea, but it's not our full time job.
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halfastros81
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In reply to aggiehawg • 9:32a, 2/16/21
AG
Thanks for your thoughts and prayers. Wer'e just getting started but I think we'll make
It thru 'this event just fine . She's
In pretty good shape physically.

Thoughts and prayers out for all you folks. Hope the power comes on soon. Wer'e going on 16 hrs now but many blankets and a nice gas fire is going to get us thru the night. We got
Our water back so things already improving!
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Charpie • 9:36a, 2/16/21
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ttu_85
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In reply to birdman • 9:40a, 2/16/21
birdman said:
Zobel said:
There's some irony in all of us (me included) being really mad at the plants for not being prepared for this weather, but then our pants are down at our own homes.
The plants are paid to deliver power. And they completely failed.

You are paid to do accounting, treat patients or fix cars. Being prepared at your own home is good idea, but it's not our full time job.
Always wise to be prepared. I get the specialization of labor. Unfortunately, it doesn't help for **** when the wheels come off and you are on your own.

Know your environment enough to at least ask important questions.
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Zobel
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 9:40a, 2/16/21
AG
It's not a demand side problem. If everyone set their thermostat to 60 the grid would still have had the same problems.
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DuncanLEO
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9:41a, 2/16/21
Lol bull***** Ercot didn't raise massive red flags and sirens at all.
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MisterScott
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In reply to Zobel • 9:44a, 2/16/21
AG
Zobel said:
It's not a demand side problem. If everyone set their thermostat to 60 the grid would still have had the same problems.
Agreed. I have not seen figures but I cannot imagine, and happy to admit I am wrong, that peak demand right now is near what it is on the hottest days. Happy to be proven wrong. This is a supply-side failure.
Class of 1996
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flyingaggie12
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In reply to DuncanLEO • 9:44a, 2/16/21
AG
They've been raising red flags for a week....mainstream media to busy covering other cr@p
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The Collective
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9:47a, 2/16/21
AG
The fact that most people are just now learning the name ERCOT tells me that our state typically has a reliable power grid, and this is a once in a lifetime event. Ask hard questions and look for lessons learned? I think so. Question just how close we got to utter disaster (assuming it still won't happen)... I think so. To me, this is just a reminder that things can still absolutely suck on this planet for all of its inhabitants.
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Charpie
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 9:47a, 2/16/21
AG
There is a difference between common sense and a government entity/regulating agency telling someone what to do.

Like your wife, I knew that I needed to conserve because my dad worked for the light company for years. The average person does not. They honestly think that as long as they pay their bills, electricity is in infinite supply.

You know how we have weather warning systems? ERCOT could have sounded the alarm through that mechanism.

Their twitter account doesn't even bother to mention conservation until on Sunday.

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TxAg82
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In reply to Zobel • 9:49a, 2/16/21
AG
Yeah, I am pretty tired of getting emails and texts telling me the system is experiencing unprecedented demand. No it isn't. 25%-50% of their customers do not have functioning electricity so they are producing exactly ZERO demand.

Their statements are disproven simply by looking at their own charts and websites.

Current ERCOT demand is about 44,000 MW. Max demand in summer 2019 was 75,000 MW. They are trying to shame customers into turning their thermostats down but in reality, they are not even producing 60% of the power they do on a hot summer day.

This has nothing to do with electricity demand. They got their PR talking points out in a hurry.
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Magic City Wings
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 9:50a, 2/16/21
DallasAg 94 said:


My wife was telling me for a week that we needed to conserve and turn off as much electricity as we could because the storm was coming and we would be dealing with power shortages.

I rolled my eyes as I do with many of these crisis warnings... and kept my mouth shut while I was sitting in the dark shivering.

Saying the public didn't know about this is like blaming W for all the people stranded on their roofs during Katrina.

We were warned. It wouldn't have prevented any outages, but anyone who was listening knew.


Don't worry, your wife was still wrong, you can conserve energy beforehand but you can't affect current demand by reducing demand a few days ago.
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In reply to Charpie • 9:50a, 2/16/21
Squadron7
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9:52a, 2/16/21
AG
Grid question: Are there some places on the grid that will never get a rolling blackout because they may lay in...I dunno...some special location/intersection that power (if available at all) will always be flowing through?
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Magic City Wings
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In reply to [removed post] • 9:53a, 2/16/21
I think it helps when we need to shave 1000s of MW in the summer and people can turn off their 10000W AC. But it takes a lot of 400W furnace blowers to make up for 10,000s of MW of lost renewable and thermal generation.
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aggiepaintrain
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9:53a, 2/16/21
AG
This is all about money and people are going to pay dearly!!!

FJB
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Squadron7
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In reply to [removed post] • 9:54a, 2/16/21
AG
Rendered Fat said:
Charpie said:
There is a difference between common sense and a government entity/regulating agency telling someone what to do.

Like your wife, I knew that I needed to conserve because my dad worked for the light company for years. The average person does not. They honestly think that as long as they pay their bills, electricity is in infinite supply.

You know how we have weather warning systems? ERCOT could have sounded the alarm through that mechanism.

Their twitter account doesn't even bother to mention conservation until on Sunday.



I'm not going to pretend like I know as much about this as you do, but isn't your argument speculative at best? Historically, does a statewide appeal to conserve usually result in compliance by the masses?

If they didn't put it on Tik Tok they missed 30% of the population.
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Charpie
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In reply to [removed post] • 9:54a, 2/16/21
AG
In Texas?

Not likely. I mean, look how pissed off people are about masks.

HOWEVER, it may have caused SOME people to lower their damn thermostats, put off doing laundry, etc.

People went on about their days like nothing was going on, jacking up their heaters...etc.

It would have at least bought some awareness.
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thirdcoast
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In reply to Charpie • 9:58a, 2/16/21
AG
Charpie said:
There is a difference between common sense and a government entity/regulating agency telling someone what to do.

Like your wife, I knew that I needed to conserve because my dad worked for the light company for years. The average person does not. They honestly think that as long as they pay their bills, electricity is in infinite supply.

You know how we have weather warning systems? ERCOT could have sounded the alarm through that mechanism.

Their twitter account doesn't even bother to mention conservation until on Sunday.



Is closing shades the right thing to do during day? I got the sun blazing thru right now.
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Charpie
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In reply to thirdcoast • 9:58a, 2/16/21
AG
To keep the cold out? Yes.
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Quito
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9:58a, 2/16/21
AG
Electricity just came on with a big boom. I turned off outside switches to the pool. Don't know if that will do any good. Last time I had electricity was 1:30 to 3:30 am.
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Squadron7
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In reply to Charpie • 9:58a, 2/16/21
AG
Charpie said:
In Texas?

Not likely. I mean, look how pissed off people are about masks.

HOWEVER, it may have caused SOME people to lower their damn thermostats, put off doing laundry, etc.

People went on about their days like nothing was going on, jacking up their heaters...etc.

It would have at least bought some awareness.

People don't know where things come from anymore. Food comes from the grocery store and electricity comes from the plug in the wall.

That said, I've learned more about the power grid in the last 24 hours reading this thread than I am comfortable to admit.
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thirdcoast
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In reply to Charpie • 9:59a, 2/16/21
AG
Charpie said:
To keep the cold out? Yes.


The cold sun?
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Not Coach Jimbo
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In reply to [removed post] • 10:01a, 2/16/21
Rendered Fat said:
Charpie said:
There is a difference between common sense and a government entity/regulating agency telling someone what to do.

Like your wife, I knew that I needed to conserve because my dad worked for the light company for years. The average person does not. They honestly think that as long as they pay their bills, electricity is in infinite supply.

You know how we have weather warning systems? ERCOT could have sounded the alarm through that mechanism.

Their twitter account doesn't even bother to mention conservation until on Sunday.



I'm not going to pretend like I know as much about this as you do, but isn't your argument speculative at best? Historically, does a statewide appeal to conserve usually result in compliance by the masses?


Maybe it might not have helped with the conservation side, but threats of rolling blackouts may have had people better prepared to survive.

Not my first rodeo, so I was decently prepared... just an inconvenience and annoyance.
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Charpie
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In reply to thirdcoast • 10:03a, 2/16/21
AG
You are purposely trying to derail this thread. Please stop.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Charpie • 10:11a, 2/16/21
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Aggie_2463
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10:13a, 2/16/21
AG
It's an unprecedented winter storm. Everyone of these plants wish they were running full load right now, even if only to make $$$. The price of power is so low these days that running plants and doing maintenance work is literally a challenge for a private company trying to turn a profit.

Also, these plants sell their power forward and guess what they have to do if they aren't producing during that time frame? They have to buy power to supplement the loss and with the prices at $3,500+ a MW add that up for a 800 MW producing unit.

That is a really crude example but I'm just saying some generators right now may be making good money but others may be losing a ton. They All wish they were running, but frozen coal, frozen trains, frozen conveyors, frozen gas lines, frozen wind turbines, frozen solar panels are a mofo, and when you have to defer maintenance etc due to budget constraints from low profit margins, it makes it even more difficult.
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Zobel
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In reply to Aggie_2463 • 10:16a, 2/16/21
AG
Conspiracy theory hat is that guys locked in at low rates and forced off to buy at high used leverage to force demand off the grid to cover themselves.
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halfastros81
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10:18a, 2/16/21
AG
Opening your blinds and letting the sunshine in does add heat to your home. It's
Not debatAble.
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YouBet
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In reply to ttu_85 • 10:19a, 2/16/21
AG
ttu_85 said:
birdman said:
Zobel said:
There's some irony in all of us (me included) being really mad at the plants for not being prepared for this weather, but then our pants are down at our own homes.
The plants are paid to deliver power. And they completely failed.

You are paid to do accounting, treat patients or fix cars. Being prepared at your own home is good idea, but it's not our full time job.
Always wise to be prepared. I get the specialization of labor. Unfortunately, it doesn't help for **** when the wheels come off and you are on your own.

Know your environment enough to at least ask important questions.


Agreed. I wasn't fully prepared and that's on me. We need to operate by Boy Scout motto and not assume the government is going to do their job.

We take things for granted. I won't again. I'll be getting a generator even if it's just a Honda type generator.
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