Rolling blackouts in Texas

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Rapier108
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11:39p, 2/14/21
Operating reserves just took a huge drop according to the Ercot website.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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agracer
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In reply to Kenneth_2003 • 11:41p, 2/14/21
AG
Kenneth_2003 said:
V8Aggie said:
I don't get it. I've lived in over 20 homes and they all had gas heaters. Am I missing something? I mean everyone's AC runs off electricity so even if half of us gave electric furnaces how are we going to put a dent in the grid?
1) The blower motor is still 220V
2) During A/C season you're trying to keep the house 10, 15, 20, maybe 35 degrees cooler. With temps in the 20s and lower you're looking at 40-50 degree differences in maintained temps.
3) Commercial buildings, though vacant are still being heated.
4) Industrial users will use more power in the cold than they do in the hotter months
5) Wind farms are largely offline/frozen
6) Solar aint doing squat.
7) How many coal plants were shuttered by Obama's EPA?

etc

Edit to add... Most everything available should be online. Maintenance season is in the spring and fall.
Not for most homes.
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bqce
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In reply to Rapier108 • 11:45p, 2/14/21
AG
This was on the Trinity Valley Electric Coop site:

Posted on February 14, 2021
Grid Conditions Update 10 p.m. The evening demand peak has passed, and no rolling outages or other measures are likely.
We still encourage conservation measures, as the lowest temperatures are still to come, and additional winter storm activity is expected later in the week.

If additional alerts or calls for conservation are issued, or if rolling outages are a possibility in our area, we will do our best to give as much warning as possible.

Thank You TVEC Members!


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Rapier108
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In reply to bqce • 11:56p, 2/14/21
That's good to hear. I was wondering if demand would eventually drop since while heaters are running, people are going to bed and shutting down everything else.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Zobel
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In reply to aggielostinETX • 12:01a, 2/15/21
AG
Centerpoint is already telling people to conserve gas. In 2014 or 2011, I can't remember which, there were problems getting gas to plants to run. There's gas, but production is down, stocks are lower than normal, etc.

It's not like a long term problem, there's plenty of nat gas for us to burn. It's a potential short term issue, like tomorrow.

Today was ok. Tomorrow is going to be dicey, wind forecast is 8 GW lower at peak than today, and today's wind peak production coincided with peak demand.
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Rapier108
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12:39a, 2/15/21
ERCOT just issued a Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) 1.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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bqce
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In reply to Rapier108 • 12:52a, 2/15/21
AG
This is from the first page: Kinda helpful information
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Rapier108
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1:23a, 2/15/21
Almost a 1000MW drop, Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) 2.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Albatross Necklace
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1:30a, 2/15/21
Per the ERCOT App, they're at EEA3
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bqce
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In reply to Albatross Necklace • 1:31a, 2/15/21
AG
Yep - rut rho!
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LostInLA07
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1:40a, 2/15/21
AG
F wind power.

Entergy service areas are fine though. Once every 90 years the regulated model wins
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YouBet
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1:42a, 2/15/21
AG
Silence woke me up. Our power is out.

Now have to decide what to do with pool. Dammit.
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Rapier108
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1:48a, 2/15/21
CSU just cut out power all along University Drive east of Highway 6.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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pagerman @ work
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1:59a, 2/15/21
AG
Just lost power in Katy/Cinco Ranch area.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
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Albatross Necklace
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2:04a, 2/15/21
I bet ERCOT is trying to preserve energy supplies overnight in anticipation of higher usage during the day.

A 30 minute power outage at 3 am when people are buried under blankets will do minimal damage compared to forced outage in the middle of the day.
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Rapier108
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2:06a, 2/15/21
What I can never figure is why most areas they shut down are residential, rather than areas which are mostly businesses that are closed.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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I Am A Critic
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In reply to Rapier108 • 2:11a, 2/15/21
Rapier108 said:
What I can never figure is why most areas they shut down are residential, rather than areas which are mostly businesses that are closed.


That's where the demand is coming from.
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Rapier108
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In reply to I Am A Critic • 2:17a, 2/15/21
I Am A Critic said:
Rapier108 said:
What I can never figure is why most areas they shut down are residential, rather than areas which are mostly businesses that are closed.


That's where the demand is coming from.
Except for all those businesses which keep all their lights/signs going 24/7, plus heating all those empty buildings. Most people are asleep and the only thing running is the heaters, and maybe a fan or nightlight.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Rapier108 • 2:18a, 2/15/21
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Andrew99
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2:20a, 2/15/21
AG
We lost power at 2am near Roanoke. Hopefully it's planned.
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gonemaroon
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2:25a, 2/15/21
AG
I watched this one with my own eyes - ERCOT didn't cut load fast enough and because of not curtailing load preemptively - tripped plants due to low frequency and had to cut 6,000MW of load as plants were tripping left and right. Freq went to 59.3 the lowest I have ever seen.
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I Am A Critic
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In reply to Rapier108 • 2:26a, 2/15/21
Rapier108 said:
I Am A Critic said:
Rapier108 said:
What I can never figure is why most areas they shut down are residential, rather than areas which are mostly businesses that are closed.


That's where the demand is coming from.
Except for all those businesses which keep all their lights/signs going 24/7, plus heating all those empty buildings. Most people are asleep and the only thing running is the heaters, and maybe a fan or nightlight.
How many businesses in a square mile vs houses? There's a big difference in density of demand.
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Andrew99
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In reply to Andrew99 • 2:32a, 2/15/21
AG
Andrew99 said:
We lost power at 2am near Roanoke. Hopefully it's planned.
Power came back on at 2:25am.

Anyone know how often these rolling blackouts should be?
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Rapier108
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In reply to Andrew99 • 2:33a, 2/15/21
Andrew99 said:
Andrew99 said:
We lost power at 2am meet Roanoke. Hopefully it's planned.
Edit: Power came back on at 2:25am.

Anyone know how often these rolling blackouts should be?
15-45 minutes.

I've had mine go out twice already.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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rynning
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2:34a, 2/15/21
AG
This app worked perfectly to wake me up at 1:52 with a loud alarm! Power was out for 30 minutes where I am in Frisco.

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/power-failure-outage-alarm/id1489512510

Time was short enough that pool pumps were able to start up again no problem.
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BurnetAggie99
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2:38a, 2/15/21




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DallasAg 94
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In reply to Andrew99 • 2:42a, 2/15/21
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4lowags
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2:50a, 2/15/21
22 minutes out here in Flower Mound
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VaultingChemist
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2:52a, 2/15/21
AG
I received a call at 2:09 am from Comanche County Coop, notifying customers that there would be a 20 minute blackout, and to turn off all electric-powered devices prior to the blackout.
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Comanche_Ag
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2:53a, 2/15/21
AG
Out
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45-70Ag
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2:54a, 2/15/21
AG
We are between Waco and mcgregor. It hasn't happened yet but I'm up waiting for it to happen.
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Bighunter43
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2:57a, 2/15/21
AG
31 minutes...hope they didn't forget to turn us back on!
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45-70Ag
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2:58a, 2/15/21
AG
Just went out
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45-70Ag
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2:59a, 2/15/21
AG
Damn smoke alarm is chiming.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to DallasAg 94 • 3:01a, 2/15/21
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